Eric Gonzalez

Eric Gonzalez asked for confirmation on the timing and scale of marketing investments, particularly the incremental advertising spend in Q2, and how this will look in Q3 and Q4, especially with the chicken sandwich launch. He also inquired about the expected bounce back and lingering effects of the recent winter storm.

Answer

CFO Mika Ware confirmed that the incremental advertising spend in Q2 was within the $9 million-$10 million range, representing 2.9% of sales, and expects the percentage of sales for advertising to remain fairly stable in Q3 and Q4, with less year-over-year increase. Regarding the winter storm, Mika stated that the guidance includes impacts known as of Tuesday ($20 million reduced revenue, $0.15 EPS decrease). While historical bounce-back from 'cabin fever' is possible, the loss of a Friday-Sunday could affect recovery, and the guidance does not build in significant upside from a bounce-back.

Eric Gonzalez asked about Brinker's expectations for the bounce back and potential lingering effects of Winter Storm Fern on its business.

Answer

Mika Ware, CFO of Brinker International, explained that the guidance incorporates impacts known as of Tuesday, January 27th, including a $20 million reduction in revenues and a $0.15 decrease in adjusted diluted EPS. She noted that while historical patterns suggest some bounce back from 'cabin fever,' losing key weekend days could limit upside, and the company has built in limited upside for post-storm recovery.

Eric Gonzalez of KeyBanc asked about performance differences across dayparts and days of the week, and how CEO Kevin Hochman will manage his time while also leading the Maggiano's turnaround.

Answer

CFO Mika Ware confirmed that sales and traffic growth is strong and consistent across all dayparts (lunch, dinner) and throughout the week. CEO Kevin Hochman expressed confidence in managing both brands, citing the strength of the established Chili's leadership team and his experience in managing multiple responsibilities. He believes the Maggiano's challenges are similar to Chili's and will not require an excessive time commitment.

Eric Gonzalez asked about the drivers behind the two-year traffic acceleration in April, questioning if it was a reaction to the Big QP promotion, and how the Big QP's performance compares to the Big Smasher.

Answer

President and CEO Kevin Hochman attributed the momentum to 'all of the above,' stating the Big QP was designed to sustain momentum and is selling more units at launch than the Big Smasher did. He also credited the continued improvement in service levels and food quality as a fundamental driver of sustained business acceleration.

Eric Gonzalez asked about the pricing strategy at Maggiano's, which has been elevated, and whether the brand might shift towards a more traffic-focused strategy.

Answer

CEO Kevin Hochman explained that Maggiano's is in 'year one' of a turnaround similar to Chili's. The strategy involves reducing discounts and taking necessary price to reinvest in food, service, and labor. He acknowledged this temporarily hurts traffic but is essential for building a more loyal customer base, with traffic improvements expected in 'year two' as the investments and innovations take hold.

Eric Gonzalez asked for more details on the strong pipeline of traffic-driving initiatives for the next year, beyond the salmon launch, including potential innovations in pita chips, sides, beverages, or desserts, and updates on catering and marketing efforts.

Answer

CEO Brett Schulman highlighted the successful pita chip innovation platform and the upcoming salmon launch. He mentioned plans to expand the catering test to a second market in late 2026 (currently testing in Houston) and explore more upper-funnel marketing activities and partnerships to communicate CAVA's value proposition effectively.

Eric Gonzalez asked for more details on CAVA's strong pipeline of traffic-driving initiatives for the next year, beyond the salmon protein, such as pita chips, sides, beverages, or desserts.

Answer

Brett Schulman, CEO, mentioned that pita chip innovation will be relevant next year, with beverages and desserts being longer-term opportunities. He confirmed the salmon launch and the expansion of the catering test to a second market in late 2026. Additionally, CAVA plans to explore more upper-funnel marketing activities and partnerships to effectively communicate its value proposition.

Eric Gonzalez from KeyBanc Capital Markets asked about restaurant throughput, including any metrics CAVA tracks and whether there is an opportunity to capture more demand as stores mature.

Answer

CEO Brett Schulman explained that they focus on striking a balance between speed and a positive guest experience, especially for new customers. He said they are supporting teams with tools like KDS and new labor models to improve flow naturally. He also highlighted the new AGM role as a key initiative to improve speed of service and transaction growth.

Eric Andrew Gonzalez asked about Darden's observations on consumer income groups, specifically if they are gaining share among lower-income consumers or seeing trade-in from higher-income individuals. He also sought clarification on the implications of commodity costs for store-level margins and the full-year margin expansion guidance.

Answer

Rick Cardenas, President, CEO & Director, noted that all Darden casual dining brands saw increased visits from all income groups year-over-year, particularly higher-income, indicating a shift towards price certainty and perceived value. Raj Vennam, SVP & CFO, reiterated Darden's long-term framework of 0-20 basis points earnings after tax (EAT) growth, emphasizing that the focus is on EAT level margins rather than segment profit margins.

Eric Gonzalez asked about Darden's observations regarding consumer income perspectives, specifically if they are gaining share among lower-income consumers or seeing trade-in from higher-income groups. He also sought clarification on the implications of the commodity outlook for store-level margins and whether Darden still expects modest margin expansion for the full year.

Answer

Rick Cardenas, President and CEO, noted that all Darden's casual dining brands saw increased visits year-over-year from all income groups, especially higher-income, suggesting potential trade-down or trade-up to casual dining's value. He also observed guests gravitating towards price certainty and perceived value. Raj Vennam, CFO, referred to Darden's long-term framework of 0-20 basis points earnings after tax (EAT) growth, emphasizing that the focus is on achieving overall earnings targets rather than specific segment profit margin expansion.

Eric Andrew Gonzalez asked about Darden's observations on consumer income perspectives, specifically if they are gaining share among lower-income consumers or seeing trade-in from higher-income groups. He also inquired about the implications of the commodity discussion for store-level margins and the likelihood of achieving modest margin expansion embedded in the guidance.

Answer

CEO Rick Cardenas noted that all casual dining brands saw increased visits year-over-year from guests across all income groups, especially higher-income, suggesting both trade-down and trade-up. CFO Raj Vennam referred to Darden's long-term framework of 0 to 20 basis points earnings after tax (EAT) growth, indicating that achieving this goal by investing in guests is the priority, even if segment profit margins are down.

Eric Gonzalez from KeyBanc Capital Markets inquired about the drivers behind the current strength in the casual dining sector and the performance of smaller independent restaurants. He also asked for details on the timeline for Darden's unit growth to reach its long-term target of 3-4% and which brands would lead this expansion.

Answer

President & CEO Rick Cardenas attributed casual dining's strength to its compelling value proposition, noting that Darden's prudent pricing strategy is attracting consumers from fast food and fast casual. CFO Raj Vennam added that while the FY26 unit growth is projected at 2.7-3%, the development pipeline is robust and expected to reach over 3% growth within the five-year plan, with Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse leading near-term openings.

Eric Gonzalez inquired about the financial implications of the Uber Direct partnership, specifically asking if the planned advertising campaign would cause a meaningful increase in marketing spend and for how long Uber's financial contribution would last.

Answer

President and CEO Ricardo Cardenas clarified that while Uber's contribution is significant, Darden is funding the larger portion. He described the campaign's impact as not 'hugely meaningful' to the quarterly budget, as it is short-term and already factored into guidance. CFO Raj Vennam added that marketing spend growth would remain within the previously guided 10-20 basis points year-over-year and that any future increases in fiscal 2026 would be measured and ROI-focused.

Eric Gonzalez inquired if the planned January promotion for Olive Garden, featuring fan favorites and a compelling price point, implied an increase in advertising spending for the third quarter.

Answer

Executive Ricardo Cardenas stated that while the advertising will 'look different,' he would not comment on the specific spend level for competitive reasons, noting that Q3 is already a high-volume quarter for the company.

Eric Gonzalez asked about the possibility of increasing Olive Garden's marketing spend to exert more pressure on competitors. He also inquired about the factors driving the significant downturn in the Fine Dining segment and the expected timeline for its recovery.

Answer

CFO Raj Vennam responded that marketing spend is driven by expected returns, not a fixed budget, and the company remains focused on long-term brand health over short-term gains. Regarding Fine Dining, Vennam attributed the weakness to luxury consumers shifting spending to other areas like international travel. He noted a pullback from aspirational guests and those with incomes up to $200,000, with urban markets showing more weakness than suburban ones. He stated they expect a gradual build-back but did not provide a specific recovery timeline.

Eric Gonzalez from KeyBanc Capital Markets inquired about the innovation pipeline's robustness, the potential for a US launch of the croissant pizza, and whether the soft start to Q3 was driven by competitor discounting.

Answer

President & CEO Todd Penegor acknowledged the innovation pipeline was previously "bare" but is now accelerating with items like the garlic five-cheese pizza and a shareable format coming soon. He stated the company can "check and adjust" to the competitive landscape. EVP & CFO Ravi Thanawala added that a steady cadence of innovation, improved customer satisfaction, and loyalty personalization are key building blocks for H2 growth.

Eric Gonzalez from KeyBanc sought clarification on the 200-basis-point sequential improvement in the organic delivery channel, the implied net unit openings for 2025, and the long-term outlook for the company's franchise mix.

Answer

President and CEO Todd Penegor addressed refranchising, stating the company is in active discussions for another market to reward growth-minded franchisees and will provide more details as deals progress. CFO Ravi Thanawala clarified the delivery improvement was relative to Q3 and that trends continue to improve in Q1 vs. Q4. He guided to positive net development in North America, with 85-115 gross openings against closures of 1.5%-2% of the system.

Eric Gonzalez asked about the key learnings from the third quarter's strategic investments that led to lower company-owned store margins and the outlook for margins in Q4 and early 2025.

Answer

President and CEO Todd Penegor explained that extensive testing of value propositions helped improve transaction trends, though near-term commodity headwinds persist. CFO and EVP, International Ravi Thanawala added that Q4 food costs are expected to rise mid-single digits, but tests have improved value perception, consideration, and repeat rates, with a focus on transaction gains over immediate margin expansion.

Eric Gonzalez inquired about the recurring 70 basis point margin impact from new Keke's opening inefficiencies and potential mitigation strategies. He also asked for a quantification of the expected Q2 margin impact from elevated egg prices.

Answer

CFO Robert Verostek explained the Keke's margin inefficiency is a temporary issue for new stores that resolves over 6-12 months and is magnified by the small company-owned base. Regarding eggs, he directed attention to the full-year commodity guidance of 3-5%, suggesting the worst impact was in Q1 and would moderate, pending no further avian flu outbreaks.

Eric Gonzalez inquired about Applebee's sales momentum in April, considering the difficult year-over-year comparison, and asked if the company was comfortable with the value mix increasing to 34%.

Answer

CFO Vance Chang confirmed that positive sales momentum from March continued into April, driven by promotions and off-premise strength. CEO John Peyton added that the strategy is succeeding by focusing on core menu favorites like the Bourbon Street items. Peyton also stated that management is comfortable with the 34% value mix, viewing it as the high end of the historical range, and noted the profitability of the '2 for $25' platform.

Eric Gonzalez of KeyBanc Capital Markets questioned whether Dine Brands' recent underperformance stemmed from ineffective marketing messages, as previously suggested, or from deeper operational issues impacting repeat customer visits.

Answer

CEO John Peyton reiterated that the primary challenge was communicating compelling "all-in value" in a crowded promotional environment. He noted that Q4 initiatives like Applebee's "Really Big Meal Deal" and IHOP's "House Faves" successfully drove traffic improvements late in the quarter, indicating the strategy is gaining traction and will be built upon in 2025.

Eric Gonzalez asked if Dine Brands needs to make significant operational adjustments, similar to peers, focusing on labor, menu, and franchisee reinvestment appetite. He also questioned if promotions are driving repeat visits or if operational issues are hindering customer frequency.

Answer

CEO John Peyton acknowledged traffic challenges but stated guest satisfaction scores are up, attributing weaker performance to inconsistent marketing and a need to better communicate all-encompassing value. He affirmed the strength of the asset-light model and franchisee willingness to invest, stating the core issue is the effectiveness of promotions, not operations.

Eric Gonzalez asked if Q1 lacked a compelling 'trade-up' item to complement its value offerings and if the innovation pipeline is strong enough for a sustainable sales lift beyond short-term promotions.

Answer

CEO Christopher Kempczinski assured that the plan for the rest of the year includes a steady flow of both menu innovation and marketing programs designed to improve baseline sales. President, IOM Ian Borden contextualized that Q1 was focused on embedding the McValue platform, and that the recent Minecraft promotion was the first major consumer-facing activity of the year, with more to come to build momentum.

Eric Gonzalez asked about the drivers of the expected improvement in company-operated margins in 2025, questioning how much of the margin degradation from the second half of 2024 could be recovered given the increased focus on value.

Answer

CEO Christopher Kempczinski expressed confidence in driving margin improvement through stronger top-line growth. He acknowledged that 2024 margins were pressured by inflation, mix shifts to value, and specific U.S. impacts from lost Quarter Pounder sales and recovery investments. For 2025, he stated the plan is to regain guest count momentum and then layer on full-margin food and marketing initiatives, leading to the expectation of slightly higher margins for the year.

Eric Gonzalez asked how the comp dynamics of the $5 meal deal shifted when paired with promotions like the Collector's Edition, and how this experience is shaping discussions for a permanent value platform.

Answer

CEO Christopher Kempczinski described a successful formula: a strong value foundation to drive traffic, layered with exciting food news and great marketing to drive full-margin check growth. CFO Ian Borden added that the strong performance of promotions like the Big Arch and Collector's Edition proves consumers still have an appetite for exciting, higher-priced items alongside value offerings.

Eric Gonzalez of KeyBanc asked if Wendy's was able to retain customers acquired during the successful Spongebob promotion and if they plan to execute differently around future promotions to create a longer tail of benefits.

Answer

CEO Kirk Tanner acknowledged the success of the Q4 promotion and emphasized the valuable lessons learned regarding supply chain management and execution. He indicated these learnings will be applied to future collaborations, such as the upcoming Girl Scouts Thin Mint Frosty partnership. Tanner stressed a culture of 'healthy dissatisfaction' and continuous learning to improve the customer experience and execution around these major events.

Eric Gonzalez of KeyBanc Capital Markets asked for a summary of the store-level margin implications for 2025, given what appears to be a conservative pricing strategy alongside a relatively benign food cost outlook.

Answer

CFO David Monroe responded that the primary focus is on growing restaurant margin dollars, not hitting a specific percentage, although the 17-18% long-term goal remains. He stressed that the margin outcome is highly sensitive to traffic, pricing, and inflation, and with a pricing decision still pending for Q2 2025, it is too early to provide a precise margin forecast.

Eric Gonzalez of KeyBanc Capital Markets asked about the new Burger King remodel investment, seeking details on the current cost per remodel and RBI's average contribution to assess the return on investment.

Answer

Executive Chairman Patrick Doyle estimated that remodel costs average between $500,000 and $1 million, depending on scope. He stated RBI's co-investment is about $250,000 per project. Given the high-teens sales uplifts being observed, he asserted that this generates a healthy return for both the company and its franchisees.

Eric Gonzalez of KeyBanc asked about the new Burger King remodel investment, seeking details on the current cost per remodel and the average percentage RBI contributes to each project to better assess the ROI.

Answer

Executive Chairman Patrick Doyle stated that remodel costs average between $500,000 and $1 million, depending on the scope. Under the new co-investment program, RBI contributes approximately $250,000 per project. He emphasized that with sales uplifts in the high teens, the returns are healthy for both RBI and its franchisees.

Eric Gonzalez from KeyBanc asked about the Burger King remodel investment, seeking details on the current cost per remodel and the average percentage that RBI contributes to each project to better assess the return on investment.

Answer

Executive Chairman J. Patrick Doyle stated that remodel costs average between $500,000 and $1 million, depending on scope. Under the new co-investment program, RBI contributes approximately $250,000 per project. He asserted that with sales uplifts in the high teens, the returns are healthy for both RBI and its franchisees.