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Eric Gregg

Eric Gregg

Research Analyst at Four Tree Island Advisory LLC

Portsmouth, NH, US

Eric Gregg is the Founder and Principal Analyst at Four Tree Island Advisory, specializing in deep fundamental research and investment strategy across the industrials, transportation, and financial sectors. He has covered companies such as Willis Lease Finance Corp and Garrett Motion, and his investment ideas have outperformed benchmarks by nearly 17%, earning him high industry recognition, including winning SumZero's Q2 Investment Competition and being a finalist at the Sohn Investment Conference Idea Contest. Gregg launched Four Tree Island Advisory in 2011 and has since published widely, including appearances in Forbes and Barron’s, following prior experience as a buy-side analyst. He holds investment advisory registration in New Hampshire and has been recognized multiple times on SumZero for idea generation and research excellence.

Eric Gregg's questions to Garrett Motion (GTX) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Eric Gregg asked about the performance, form factor, and potential pricing attributes that differentiate Garrett Motion's eco-link centrifugal compressor technology for data centers and industrial use. He also sought clarification on the future capital allocation strategy, specifically regarding the balance between stock repurchases and debt paydown.

Answer

Olivier Rabiller (President and CEO, Garrett Motion) highlighted that the eco-link compressor's differentiation stems from high-speed electric motors for superior efficiency, low noise, and leveraging airfoil bearing technology developed for automotive fuel cell compressors. He emphasized benefits in weight, efficiency, and manufacturing maturity, particularly relevant with new low global warming refrigerants. Sean Deason (CFO, Garrett Motion) reiterated the commitment to returning 75% or more of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders over time, utilizing dividends, share buybacks, and debt repayment as levers, without committing to specific quarterly numbers due to market volatility.

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Question · Q3 2025

Eric Gregg asked about the performance, form factor, and pricing attributes that differentiate Garrett Motion's eco-link centrifugal compressor technology for data centers and industrial use, and sought clarification on the future capital allocation strategy, specifically regarding stock repurchases versus debt paydown.

Answer

Olivier Rabiller (President and CEO, Garrett Motion) explained that the eco-link compressor's differentiation stems from high-speed electric motors for efficiency, low noise, and leveraging airfoil bearing technology, offering benefits in weight, efficiency, and maturity, especially relevant with the shift to low global warming refrigerants. Sean Deason (CFO, Garrett Motion) reiterated the commitment to returning 75% or more of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders through dividends, share buybacks, and debt repayment, without committing to specific quarterly numbers.

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Question · Q2 2025

Eric Gregg of Four Tree Island Advisory LLC asked about the long-term revenue potential for the large turbo business for data center backup power and sought more detail on the non-linear stock repurchase strategy, given strong cash flow and a low valuation.

Answer

CEO Olivier Rabiller projected the large turbo business for gensets and marine applications could reach the "hundreds of millions of dollars" in revenue within three to five years, driven significantly by aftermarket sales. Regarding buybacks, CFO Sean Deason reiterated that the program is not linear and mentioned the company maintains "dry powder for block trades," while reaffirming the board's commitment to returning at least 75% of free cash flow to shareholders.

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Eric Gregg's questions to WILLIS LEASE FINANCE (WLFC) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Eric Gregg from Four Tree Island Advisory LLC asked for clarification on the average utilization rate for the quarter, the employee count, the ongoing P&L impact from the sale of the Bridgend consulting business, and the reason for the negative margin in maintenance services revenue.

Answer

CFO Scott Flaherty stated the average utilization for the quarter was 87.2%, trending up from prior periods. CEO Austin Willis added that the employee count is approximately 420. Regarding the Bridgend sale, Willis explained that while its direct P&L was not material, the freed-up capital will be leveraged to acquire profit-making assets, driving positive future impact. He also clarified that the negative margin in maintenance services was due to the strategic buildup of labor to support a new contract with Jet2.com.

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Question · Q1 2025

Eric Gregg of Four Tree Island Advisory questioned why the Q1 gain on sale of flight equipment was significantly below the 2024 average, sought clarity on the baseline for the $11.4 million increase in consultant fees, and asked for the rationale behind a 60% increase in employee headcount since 2022 despite modest growth in the number of engine assets.

Answer

CFO Scott Flaherty explained that trading activity is inherently 'lumpy' and one quarter is not indicative of long-term margins. President Austin Willis and CFO Scott Flaherty clarified that the consultant fees for the SAF project were an increase from a previously immaterial baseline and represent the 'lion's share' of the year's expected spend. Austin Willis attributed the headcount growth to the build-out of people-intensive services businesses, such as the engine MRO facilities in the U.S. and U.K.

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Question · Q4 2024

Eric Gregg asked a series of questions regarding new engine purchases, including potential discounts on LEAP engines and their delivery timeline, the status of a Pratt & Whitney engine purchase, plans for investing in HPT durability kits, the impact of new, more durable engines on MRO growth strategy, and the reasons for lower JV earnings in recent quarters.

Answer

President Austin Willis and CFO Scott Flaherty addressed the questions. Willis declined to comment on specific OEM discounts but confirmed 9 of the previously announced Pratt & Whitney engines were purchased. He stated that durability kits will be implemented in the future and that their MROs are well-positioned for next-gen engines. Regarding JVs, Flaherty noted that earnings can fluctuate based on the timing of asset sales, similar to the core business.

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Question · Q3 2024

Eric Gregg of Four Tree Island Advisory asked about the average remaining lease term, potential provisions for customer Azul, capital allocation strategy regarding buybacks, the cause of negative operating leverage in G&A, and the lumpiness of maintenance reserve revenues.

Answer

Executive Austin Willis stated the average remaining lease term is about two years and confirmed a zero accounts receivable balance with Azul, with no immediate provisions expected. He noted the appreciated stock price provides optionality for capital allocation. Both Willis and CFO Scott Flaherty attributed higher G&A to stock-based compensation and explained that maintenance reserve revenue lumpiness comes from long-term reserves tied to lease extensions, while short-term reserves are growing strongly.

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