Eric Morgan

Eric Morgan sought clarification on the run rate for Saia's insurance costs, specifically if the $20 million figure (excluding the Q4 one-time impact) is a reasonable expectation, and what factors are driving any sequential improvement.

Answer

Matt Batteh, EVP and CFO, confirmed the math on backing out the $4.7 million one-time impact. He advised using a longer-term average for modeling insurance costs, acknowledging the inflationary environment but highlighting the positive trend in preventable accidents (down 21% year-over-year). Fritz Holzgrefe, President and CEO, added that Saia's guidance incorporates a normal case development for this inflationary line, reflecting their understanding of ongoing case developments.

Eric Morgan sought clarification on Saia's insurance run rate, specifically if $20 million (after backing out the $4.7 million prior period development) is the expected run rate, and what factors are driving any sequential improvement.

Answer

EVP and CFO Matt Batteh confirmed the math for Q4 excluding the one-time impact but advised using a longer-term average for modeling due to the inflationary environment and historical fluctuations. He noted positive trends in preventable accidents (down 21% year-over-year) contributing to a better experience. President and CEO Fritz Holzgrefe added that Saia's guidance incorporates a normal case development and accounts for inflation in this expense line.

Eric Morgan of Barclays asked about Saia's mix management initiatives, questioning how much of the weak sequential shipment improvement was due to active management versus underlying demand softness. He also inquired about the balance sheet and potential for leverage reduction.

Answer

EVP & CFO Matthew Batteh attributed the muted sequential trend to lapping prior year terminal openings and the broader weak industrial backdrop. President & CEO Frederick Holzgrefe added that the focus is on managing what they can control and ensuring they get a return on their capital investments through pricing and mix. On the balance sheet, Batteh expects to remain in their credit line but anticipates usage will start to taper down in Q4.

Eric Morgan of Barclays sought more context on the strong January volume growth given weather impacts and asked if revenue per shipment growth could accelerate from its recent ~1% trend to the mid-single-digit range.

Answer

CEO Fritz Holzgrefe acknowledged weather impacts but highlighted that the national network provides diversification, and March remains the most critical month for the quarter. Executive Matthew Batteh stated that while some shippers may try lower-cost options, Saia will not chase that freight and remains focused on its pricing strategy. Fritz Holzgrefe added that a key long-term goal is to close the revenue per bill gap with its national peers, a process enabled by the expanded network.

Eric Morgan of Barclays asked if the high single-digit contract renewals and recent GRIs should translate into similar realized yield growth in 2025. He also requested early thoughts on the level and composition of 2025 capital expenditures.

Answer

Executive Matthew Batteh explained that realizing rate increases isn't always linear, as shippers have options in the current environment, but the expanded national footprint should support pricing power. For 2025 CapEx, he suggested that this year's $1 billion budget, minus the one-time transaction, is a fair starting range, as spending will remain elevated to support the larger business.

Eric Morgan from Barclays inquired about the future cadence of pricing, specifically revenue per hundredweight, if the average weight per shipment remains around 1,500 pounds, and the impact of a potentially lower length of haul on yield.

Answer

CFO Adam Satterfield explained that while higher weight per shipment might lead to lower revenue per hundredweight growth (potentially 3% in strong demand environments), it significantly benefits overall top-line revenue and operating ratio by increasing revenue per shipment. He affirmed that the company's disciplined yield management philosophy remains unchanged.

Eric Morgan asked about the cadence of pricing further out, specifically how holding a 1,500-pound weight level might impact Q2 and Q3 yields, and the effect of a potentially lower length of haul on the yield number.

Answer

Adam Satterfield, CFO, explained that normal seasonality for revenue per hundredweight is 4-4.5%, but higher weight per shipment could lead to a lower percentage increase. He emphasized that while higher weight might pressure revenue per hundredweight, it's beneficial for overall revenue and operating ratio by increasing revenue per shipment. He confirmed no change in the company's disciplined yield management philosophy.

Eric Morgan asked about market share dynamics, noting that the industry might not be down as much as Old Dominion Freight Line, and whether volumes could stabilize next year, considering the impact of Yellow's bankruptcy.

Answer

Adam Satterfield, CFO, clarified that comparisons often exclude Yellow's bankruptcy impact, which reallocated volume. He stated Old Dominion Freight Line maintained an 11.8% revenue market share for the last three years and expects to gain profitable market share when the market improves, as the industry will be more capacity-constrained.

Eric Morgan from Barclays followed up on volumes, asking about market share dynamics and whether the current trend of declining volumes is expected to stabilize into next year, given that the overall industry might not be down as much.

Answer

Adam Satterfield, CFO, clarified that Old Dominion Freight Line's revenue market share has remained consistent at 11.8% for the past three years, emphasizing that industry comparisons should account for Yellow's bankruptcy. He anticipates continued underperformance relative to seasonality for Q4 2025 and potentially Q1 2026, with hopes for a spring recovery contingent on macroeconomic clarity, particularly regarding trade and tariffs.

Eric Morgan from Barclays Capital inquired about Old Dominion's market share, noting a discrepancy with the positive ATA shipment index and asking about the performance of private carriers.

Answer

EVP & CFO Adam Satterfield explained that Old Dominion prefers Transport Topics data, which includes private carriers and shows ODFL's market share has been relatively consistent. He reiterated their strategy is to maintain share during downturns while securing yield increases, positioning them to outperform significantly when the economy recovers.

Eric Morgan from Barclays Capital Inc. asked for commentary on market share, noting a discrepancy between ODFL's volumes and a recent positive turn in the ATA's shipment index, and inquired about private carriers.

Answer

EVP & CFO Adam Satterfield explained that ODFL relies on Transport Topics data, which shows consistent market share. He reiterated the strategy of maintaining share during downturns while securing yield increases, stating ODFL is better positioned than ever for a demand recovery, citing historical tonnage outperformance of 1,000-1,200 basis points in past cycles.

Eric Morgan asked if Old Dominion could achieve operating margin improvement in 2025 under a steady-state macroeconomic environment, given current cost and pricing trends.

Answer

CFO Adam Satterfield responded that margin improvement is contingent on top-line revenue growth to leverage overhead costs. He believes a return to normal seasonality could enable revenue growth and margin expansion, particularly in the second half of the year, but framed the return to their sub-70% OR goal as a multi-year process.

Eric Morgan inquired about the drivers behind the worsening October tonnage declines and sought guidance on the operating ratio trajectory for the remainder of the year.

Answer

CFO Adam Satterfield explained that October's year-over-year tonnage comparison is skewed by a competitor's cybersecurity issue last year which temporarily boosted ODFL's volume. He noted that sequential trends are encouraging and close to normal seasonality. For the operating ratio, Satterfield projected a 300-350 basis point sequential deterioration in Q4, citing revenue risk on overhead and higher fringe benefit costs.

Eric Morgan asked about the sustainability of intermodal growth in the East moving forward, considering last year's labor port issue and different seasonality observed this year.

Answer

President of Intermodal Darren Field clarified that the labor situation primarily affected last year's West Coast comps, not Eastern network volume, which has less interaction with the import economy. He stated the Eastern network, including Mexico, offers the best highway-to-rail conversion opportunity. He is encouraged by Eastern growth and anticipates it will continue for years to come.

Eric Morgan inquired about the sustainability of J.B. Hunt's intermodal growth in the East moving forward, particularly in the context of different seasonality observed this year and the impact of last year's West Coast port labor issues.

Answer

President of Intermodal Darren Field clarified that last year's West Coast labor situation primarily affected West Coast volumes, not the Eastern network. He emphasized that the Eastern network, including Mexico, offers the best highway-to-rail conversion opportunity. He expressed encouragement for Eastern growth and anticipated its continuation for years to come, as it represents a significant portion of the remaining millions of loads to be converted.

Eric Morgan from Barclays Capital inquired about the potential shape of the next freight upcycle, particularly if demand remains stable, and asked for more detail on the temporary elevated demand Werner experienced from certain customers.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Derek Leathers explained that he anticipates a supply-driven upcycle due to ongoing carrier attrition and constrained OEM production, rather than a significant demand surge. He noted that the temporary demand increase was a 'flight to quality' from customers with urgent needs, which Werner supported through its flexible One Way network. Leathers sees this as a positive indicator of customer confidence in Werner's capabilities at a potential market inflection point.

Eric Morgan of Barclays asked about the expected cadence of Logistics gross margin if spot rates rise and the longer-term outlook for the segment's operating margin.

Answer

CEO Derek Leathers acknowledged that rising buy rates will pressure Logistics gross margins in the short term. However, he expects productivity gains from the new EDGE TMS platform to offset this, with margin expansion occurring by mid-year as customer contracts are repriced. While mid-single-digit operating margins are the long-term goal, he stated the immediate focus is on consistently achieving 3-4% margins.

Eric Morgan asked if Werner could return to its long-term TTS margin target range within a single up-cycle and requested more specific detail on the full-year guidance for Dedicated revenue per tractor.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Derek Leathers and EVP, Treasurer & CFO Chris Wikoff conveyed that returning to the target margin range in a single calendar year is unlikely, but it is achievable within a multi-year up-cycle as key drivers improve. Regarding Dedicated guidance, Mr. Leathers explained that providing a finer point is difficult due to the variable timing of positive truck add-backs versus a few planned strategic fleet exits in Q4.

Eric Morgan of Barclays asked about the drivers for the full-year volume growth guidance, which implies an acceleration, and questioned if the operating margin could improve sequentially in Q3 given the expected volume increase.

Answer

EVP & CCO Kevin Boone attributed expected volume acceleration to the resolution of several customer outages from Q2 and easier year-over-year comparisons. EVP & CFO Sean Pelkey noted that despite higher volumes, Q3 margin faces headwinds from contractual wage increases (~$20M), a restructuring charge ($15-20M), and the reversal of favorable Q2 cost items.

Asked to quantify the impact of changing weight per shipment on yields and whether an increase in weight per shipment during an up-cycle would have a moderating effect on yield growth.

Answer

Weight per shipment is not considered a significant swing factor for the yield outlook. The expected yield acceleration in Q1 is driven by core pricing improvements and contract renewals, not changes in weight per shipment. For the full year, weight per shipment is expected to be flattish and will not materially impact the strong pricing growth outlook.

Eric Morgan of Barclays PLC inquired about the potential for LTL length of haul to increase with the expanded network and if that could drive sustained mid-to-high single-digit yield growth.

Answer

Executive Adam Miller stated that while they expect length of haul to improve, the exact amount is uncertain until they progress through bid cycles with the newly integrated DHE network. Executive Andrew Hess called the DHE acquisition a "game changer" for accessing the California market, which is now opening up new long-haul opportunities and customer demand that should serve as a tailwind.