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    Eric Morgan

    Research Analyst at Barclays

    Eric Morgan is an Equity Research Analyst at Barclays specializing in the coverage of freight transportation and airline companies such as Werner Enterprises. He has been actively involved in setting price targets, maintaining an Equal Weight rating and demonstrating thoughtful analysis of industry trends and company performance, with public records showing detailed investment calls on prominent transportation firms. Eric recently returned to the New York area following the completion of a Master's in Applied Economics and has gained recognition for his rigorous approach and data-driven recommendations. His professional credentials include advanced academic experience in economics, and his analytical expertise is backed by years of sector-focused research.

    Eric Morgan's questions to OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE (ODFL) leadership

    Eric Morgan's questions to OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE (ODFL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Eric Morgan from Barclays Capital inquired about Old Dominion's market share, noting a discrepancy with the positive ATA shipment index and asking about the performance of private carriers.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Adam Satterfield explained that Old Dominion prefers Transport Topics data, which includes private carriers and shows ODFL's market share has been relatively consistent. He reiterated their strategy is to maintain share during downturns while securing yield increases, positioning them to outperform significantly when the economy recovers.

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    Eric Morgan's questions to OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE (ODFL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Eric Morgan from Barclays Capital Inc. asked for commentary on market share, noting a discrepancy between ODFL's volumes and a recent positive turn in the ATA's shipment index, and inquired about private carriers.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Adam Satterfield explained that ODFL relies on Transport Topics data, which shows consistent market share. He reiterated the strategy of maintaining share during downturns while securing yield increases, stating ODFL is better positioned than ever for a demand recovery, citing historical tonnage outperformance of 1,000-1,200 basis points in past cycles.

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    Eric Morgan's questions to OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE (ODFL) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Eric Morgan asked if Old Dominion could achieve operating margin improvement in 2025 under a steady-state macroeconomic environment, given current cost and pricing trends.

    Answer

    CFO Adam Satterfield responded that margin improvement is contingent on top-line revenue growth to leverage overhead costs. He believes a return to normal seasonality could enable revenue growth and margin expansion, particularly in the second half of the year, but framed the return to their sub-70% OR goal as a multi-year process.

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    Eric Morgan's questions to OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE (ODFL) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Eric Morgan inquired about the drivers behind the worsening October tonnage declines and sought guidance on the operating ratio trajectory for the remainder of the year.

    Answer

    CFO Adam Satterfield explained that October's year-over-year tonnage comparison is skewed by a competitor's cybersecurity issue last year which temporarily boosted ODFL's volume. He noted that sequential trends are encouraging and close to normal seasonality. For the operating ratio, Satterfield projected a 300-350 basis point sequential deterioration in Q4, citing revenue risk on overhead and higher fringe benefit costs.

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    Eric Morgan's questions to WERNER ENTERPRISES (WERN) leadership

    Eric Morgan's questions to WERNER ENTERPRISES (WERN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Eric Morgan from Barclays Capital inquired about the potential shape of the next freight upcycle, particularly if demand remains stable, and asked for more detail on the temporary elevated demand Werner experienced from certain customers.

    Answer

    Chairman & CEO Derek Leathers explained that he anticipates a supply-driven upcycle due to ongoing carrier attrition and constrained OEM production, rather than a significant demand surge. He noted that the temporary demand increase was a 'flight to quality' from customers with urgent needs, which Werner supported through its flexible One Way network. Leathers sees this as a positive indicator of customer confidence in Werner's capabilities at a potential market inflection point.

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    Eric Morgan's questions to WERNER ENTERPRISES (WERN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Eric Morgan of Barclays asked about the expected cadence of Logistics gross margin if spot rates rise and the longer-term outlook for the segment's operating margin.

    Answer

    CEO Derek Leathers acknowledged that rising buy rates will pressure Logistics gross margins in the short term. However, he expects productivity gains from the new EDGE TMS platform to offset this, with margin expansion occurring by mid-year as customer contracts are repriced. While mid-single-digit operating margins are the long-term goal, he stated the immediate focus is on consistently achieving 3-4% margins.

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    Eric Morgan's questions to WERNER ENTERPRISES (WERN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Eric Morgan asked if Werner could return to its long-term TTS margin target range within a single up-cycle and requested more specific detail on the full-year guidance for Dedicated revenue per tractor.

    Answer

    Chairman & CEO Derek Leathers and EVP, Treasurer & CFO Chris Wikoff conveyed that returning to the target margin range in a single calendar year is unlikely, but it is achievable within a multi-year up-cycle as key drivers improve. Regarding Dedicated guidance, Mr. Leathers explained that providing a finer point is difficult due to the variable timing of positive truck add-backs versus a few planned strategic fleet exits in Q4.

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    Eric Morgan's questions to SAIA (SAIA) leadership

    Eric Morgan's questions to SAIA (SAIA) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Eric Morgan of Barclays asked about Saia's mix management initiatives, questioning how much of the weak sequential shipment improvement was due to active management versus underlying demand softness. He also inquired about the balance sheet and potential for leverage reduction.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Matthew Batteh attributed the muted sequential trend to lapping prior year terminal openings and the broader weak industrial backdrop. President & CEO Frederick Holzgrefe added that the focus is on managing what they can control and ensuring they get a return on their capital investments through pricing and mix. On the balance sheet, Batteh expects to remain in their credit line but anticipates usage will start to taper down in Q4.

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    Eric Morgan's questions to SAIA (SAIA) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Eric Morgan of Barclays sought more context on the strong January volume growth given weather impacts and asked if revenue per shipment growth could accelerate from its recent ~1% trend to the mid-single-digit range.

    Answer

    CEO Fritz Holzgrefe acknowledged weather impacts but highlighted that the national network provides diversification, and March remains the most critical month for the quarter. Executive Matthew Batteh stated that while some shippers may try lower-cost options, Saia will not chase that freight and remains focused on its pricing strategy. Fritz Holzgrefe added that a key long-term goal is to close the revenue per bill gap with its national peers, a process enabled by the expanded network.

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    Eric Morgan's questions to SAIA (SAIA) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Eric Morgan of Barclays asked if the high single-digit contract renewals and recent GRIs should translate into similar realized yield growth in 2025. He also requested early thoughts on the level and composition of 2025 capital expenditures.

    Answer

    Executive Matthew Batteh explained that realizing rate increases isn't always linear, as shippers have options in the current environment, but the expanded national footprint should support pricing power. For 2025 CapEx, he suggested that this year's $1 billion budget, minus the one-time transaction, is a fair starting range, as spending will remain elevated to support the larger business.

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    Eric Morgan's questions to CSX (CSX) leadership

    Eric Morgan's questions to CSX (CSX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Eric Morgan of Barclays asked about the drivers for the full-year volume growth guidance, which implies an acceleration, and questioned if the operating margin could improve sequentially in Q3 given the expected volume increase.

    Answer

    EVP & CCO Kevin Boone attributed expected volume acceleration to the resolution of several customer outages from Q2 and easier year-over-year comparisons. EVP & CFO Sean Pelkey noted that despite higher volumes, Q3 margin faces headwinds from contractual wage increases (~$20M), a restructuring charge ($15-20M), and the reversal of favorable Q2 cost items.

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    Eric Morgan's questions to XPO (XPO) leadership

    Eric Morgan's questions to XPO (XPO) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Asked to quantify the impact of changing weight per shipment on yields and whether an increase in weight per shipment during an up-cycle would have a moderating effect on yield growth.

    Answer

    Weight per shipment is not considered a significant swing factor for the yield outlook. The expected yield acceleration in Q1 is driven by core pricing improvements and contract renewals, not changes in weight per shipment. For the full year, weight per shipment is expected to be flattish and will not materially impact the strong pricing growth outlook.

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    Eric Morgan's questions to Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) leadership

    Eric Morgan's questions to Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Eric Morgan of Barclays PLC inquired about the potential for LTL length of haul to increase with the expanded network and if that could drive sustained mid-to-high single-digit yield growth.

    Answer

    Executive Adam Miller stated that while they expect length of haul to improve, the exact amount is uncertain until they progress through bid cycles with the newly integrated DHE network. Executive Andrew Hess called the DHE acquisition a "game changer" for accessing the California market, which is now opening up new long-haul opportunities and customer demand that should serve as a tailwind.

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