Ernesto Gabilondo

Ernesto Gabilondo asked about the expected peak for NPLs and cost of risk, including a potential range, and sought the ROE forecast for 2025. He also inquired about the timeline for potential M&A activity given the bank's excess capital post-election.

Answer

CFO Jorge Scarinci stated that NPLs were expected to peak between October and November, with the cost of risk maintained at Q3's 6.5% in Q4, then forecasting 5% for 2026. He reaffirmed an 8% ROE target for 2025. Regarding M&A, he indicated the bank is actively looking for opportunities and expects news within 12-18 months, though it's not solely dependent on them.

Ernesto Gabilondo asked about the expected peak for NPLs and cost of risk, the ROE outlook for 2025 and 2026, and potential M&A opportunities given Banco Macro's significant excess capital.

Answer

CFO Jorge Scarinci indicated that NPLs likely peaked between October and November, with cost of risk expected to be around 6.5% in Q4 2025 and 5% in 2026. He maintained the 8% ROE forecast for 2025 and reiterated the bank's readiness to explore M&A opportunities within the next 12-18 months.

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America Merrill Lynch inquired about the potential impact of recent interest rate volatility and debt auctions on Banco Macro's Net Interest Margin (NIM) and asset quality. He also asked about the bank's Return on Equity (ROE) expectations for the second half of 2025 and whether other banks were reducing their guidance.

Answer

Jorge Francisco Scarinci, CFO, acknowledged a volatile environment with rising funding costs but noted the bank's ability to manage them due to its atomized deposit base. He projected a 'timid reduction' in Q3 NIMs. Scarinci anticipates asset quality will deteriorate, with NPLs potentially reaching 2.5% to 3% by year-end due to high real interest rates. He also forecasted a cost of risk around 4% for the second half. Despite challenges, he confirmed that the bank is maintaining its full-year ROE guidance of 8% to 10% in real terms.

Inquired about the bank's macroeconomic outlook, expectations for operating expenses, the trajectory of the loan-to-deposit ratio, and the potential timing for M&A activities.

Answer

The bank provided its macro forecasts, including 5.3% GDP growth and 30% inflation for 2025. OpEx is expected to grow close to inflation. The loan-to-deposit ratio is projected to rise into the low 90s by year-end. Regarding M&A, the timing depends on opportunities arising, and the bank is not currently analyzing any deals, but an increased dividend is also a possibility for managing excess capital next year.

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America inquired about Banco Macro's macroeconomic expectations for 2025-2026, including interest rates, inflation, and GDP. He also asked about the outlook for operating expense growth, the evolution of the loan-to-deposit ratio, and the potential timing for M&A activity relative to political events.

Answer

Jorge Francisco Scarinci, Finance & Investor Relations Manager, provided forecasts for 2025 inflation around 30% and 2026 GDP growth of 5.3%. He expects operating expenses to grow close to inflation in 2025 and the loan-to-deposit ratio to reach the low 90s. Regarding M&A, he reiterated that no targets are currently being analyzed and mentioned that the board might consider higher dividends in early 2026 to manage excess capital.

The analyst asked about the outlook for loan growth, asset quality, the bank's investment strategy concerning dual bonds and the upcoming elections, and the expected ROE for 2023 and 2024. He also inquired about the impact of the Itau acquisition on capital ratios and future M&A plans.

Answer

The CFO expects negative real loan growth for the rest of the year and has provisioned conservatively due to economic forecasts. The bank is heavily invested in dual and dollar-linked bonds ahead of the election. The 2023 real ROE is projected to be around 20%, but 2024 guidance is premature due to political uncertainty. Capital ratios will remain high (around 30%) post-acquisition, and all options for using excess capital, including M&A, are being considered.

Ernesto Gabilondo asked about Grupo Financiero Galicia's loan growth expectations for the next year, including segment-specific color and participation in new private investments in Argentina, particularly in oil & gas, mining, and agribusiness. He also sought clarification on the expected NPL ratio peak and cost of risk trends.

Answer

Gonzalo Fernández Covaro (CFO, Grupo Financiero Galicia) projected 25% real loan growth for next year, aiming to gain market share, with commercial lending focusing on oil & gas, mining, and agribusiness. He confirmed an NPL peak around March next year at 6-7% and a cost of risk peak between 9-10% for the bank. He also mentioned exploring bond markets for financing.

Ernesto Gabilondo asked about Grupo Supervielle's loan growth expectations for the current and next year, specifically per segment, and inquired about private investment announcements in Argentina. He also sought color on the company's ROE expectations for the current year and general trends for the next year.

Answer

Patricio Supervielle (Chairman and CEO) explained that loan growth in 2025 was constrained but expects 30-40% real loan growth in 2026, led by corporates and SMEs (especially oil and gas), with retail picking up in Q2 2026. He also discussed long-term ROE drivers, aiming for 15-20% ROE. Alejandro Catterberg (President, Poliarquía Consultores) provided insights into regional private investments, particularly in extractive industries like mining and oil & gas, and their impact on political power distribution. Mariano Biglia (CFO) complemented on ROE, expecting high single digits or low double digits for 2026, reaching medium-term targets by year-end, contingent on easing monetary policy and NPL improvements.

Ernesto Gabilondo asked about Grupo Supervielle's loan growth expectations for the current year and next, seeking segment-specific color and details on private investment announcements impacting lending. He also inquired about ROE expectations for the current year and general trends for the upcoming year.

Answer

Patricio Supervielle, Chairman and CEO, stated that loan growth was constrained but signs of a turn are emerging, with corporate and SME lending leading in Q4 2025 and early 2026, and retail picking up in Q2 2026. He projected 30%-40% real loan growth for 2026. Regarding ROE, he expressed a constructive long-term view, driven by bank releveraging, improved consumer confidence, and cost controls, aiming for convergence with regional peers. Alejandro Catterberg, President of Poliarquía Consultores, provided insights into booming extractive industries and regional projects driving economic shifts. Mariano Biglia, CFO, complemented on ROE, suggesting high single-digit or low double-digit ROE for next year, reaching medium-term targets by year-end, contingent on easing monetary policy and NPL improvements.

Ernesto Gabilondo inquired about Grupo Supervielle's asset quality, questioning if the cost of risk had peaked in Q2 and its expected trend. He also asked for ROE expectations for the next year and later asked about key political dates to monitor, such as the Buenos Aires provincial election.

Answer

Gustavo Manriquez, CEO of Banco Supervielle, and Diego Pizzulli, CEO of IOL invertironline, attributed the NPL rise to industry-wide credit normalization and customer adaptation to a low-inflation environment. CFO Mariano Biglia confirmed the cost of risk likely peaked and guided for it to be 5-5.5% for the year and stable into 2026. For ROE, Biglia projected a potential increase to 15% for 2026. Regarding politics, Manriquez identified the September provincial election as a key indicator but emphasized the October national election as more significant for securing the government's mandate.

Ernesto Gabilondo inquired about Grupo Supervielle's asset quality and cost of risk, asking if the peak occurred in Q2 and what the trend would be for the next year. He also questioned the ROE expectations for 2026 and asked about key political dates to monitor, such as the provincial elections.

Answer

Gustavo Manriquez, CEO of Banco Supervielle, and Diego Pizzulli, CEO of IOL invertironline, explained that the NPL ratio increase is part of an industry-wide credit normalization and a shift in customer behavior post-inflation. CFO Mariano Biglia confirmed the cost of risk likely peaked, guiding for 5-5.5% for the year and into 2026, with a 2026 ROE target of around 15%. Regarding the political landscape, Manriquez highlighted the September provincial election as a key indicator but stressed the October national election's greater importance for the government's mandate.

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America Merrill Lynch questioned the drivers behind the rise in the NPL ratio and cost of risk, asking if specific corporate sectors like agriculture were in distress and seeking clarity on the cost of risk evolution for the rest of the year.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Julio Patricio Supervielle and CFO Mariano Biglia explained the increase as a normalization of credit quality driven by the strategic and rapid expansion of the higher-margin retail loan portfolio, not by distress in corporate sectors. They confirmed the Q1 cost of risk was elevated but expect it to decrease through the year to meet the full-year guidance of 4.0% to 4.5%.

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America Merrill Lynch inquired about Grupo Supervielle's asset quality, questioning the drivers behind the normalized NPL ratio of 2% and the simultaneous increase in provision charges. He specifically asked about potential trouble in the corporate or agriculture sectors and sought clarity on the cost of risk outlook for the year, noting the Q1 figure was above the full-year guidance.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Julio Patricio Supervielle, CFO Mariano Biglia, and Banco Supervielle CEO Gustavo Manriquez clarified that the NPL increase is a normalization driven by the strategic shift and rapid growth in the retail loan portfolio, not distress in specific sectors like agriculture. They confirmed the updated full-year guidance for NPLs (2.2%-2.5%) and cost of risk (4%-4.5%), explaining that the higher Q1 cost of risk was anticipated and is expected to moderate in subsequent quarters.

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America inquired about Credicorp's asset quality, specifically questioning if the current cost of risk guidance of 1.8% for the year-end is too conservative given better-than-expected performance. He also asked about the expected cost of risk for 2026, considering the planned acceleration into higher-yield segments, and sought clarification on OpEx growth breakdown between disruptive initiatives and ongoing business for the next year.

Answer

CEO Gianfranco Ferrari and Chief Risk Officer César Ríos explained that the better asset quality results were due to improved risk management and a more dynamic economic backdrop, with consumer spending growing faster. They confirmed the year-end cost of risk would be at the lower end of guidance, around 1.8%. For 2026, they anticipate a gradual increase in cost of risk due to a shift towards higher-margin portfolios, but expect risk-adjusted NIM to also increase. CFO Alejandro Perez-Reyes addressed OpEx, stating that while this quarter saw significant growth due to planned investments, core business OpEx growth should slow next year, while innovation-related OpEx would remain similar to support income generation and the medium-term efficiency target of 42%.

Ernesto Gabilondo asked about the conservatism of the cost of risk guidance for the current year, given better-than-expected NPLs, and inquired about the expected cost of risk for 2026 with accelerated growth in high-yield segments. He also asked about the double-digit OpEx growth this quarter and the expected breakdown for next year between disruptive initiatives and ongoing business.

Answer

CEO Gianfranco Ferrari introduced the topic. Chief Risk Officer Cesar Rios explained that better results were due to improved risk management and a more dynamic economy, confirming the cost of risk would be at the lower end of the 1.8% guidance. For 2026, he expects a gradual increase in cost of risk due to portfolio shifts, but with an overall increase in risk-adjusted NIM. CFO Alejandro Perez-Reyes addressed OpEx, stating that current growth was planned for capability revamping. He expects lower growth in core business expenses next year and similar growth in innovation, aiming for the 42% medium-term efficiency target.

Ernesto Gabilondo of Bank of America Merrill Lynch inquired about Intercorp's outlook on Net Interest Margin (NIM) for H2 2025 and beyond, the trajectory for cost of risk as consumer lending recovers, and the expected growth rate for operating expenses.

Answer

CFO Michela Casassa Ramat explained that NIM should improve in H2 2025 due to a normalizing loan mix and reduced excess liquidity. She also noted the cost of risk is currently low but will rise slightly with renewed consumer loan growth. EVP & Interbank CEO Carlos Tori Grande attributed higher expenses to strategic investments in technology and talent, while CEO Luis Felipe Castellanos López-Torres confirmed this trend across all subsidiaries.

Ernesto Gabilondo of Bank of America inquired about the competitive landscape and the evolution of the credit card portfolio, asking how Intercorp's performance compares to its competitors in a recovering market.

Answer

Executive Luis Castellanos López-Torres responded that after a challenging credit cycle, there is a renewed appetite for consumer loan growth across the banking system. He noted that Intercorp is beginning to see growth in its own credit card book and that the market as a whole is recovering, though some competitors are more aggressive than others.

Ernesto Gabilondo of Bank of America Merrill Lynch inquired about Colombia's political landscape, the expected normalization of Net Interest Margin (NIM), and the sustainable long-term level for the cost of risk.

Answer

President & CEO Juan Carlos Mora Uribe addressed the political situation, noting that clarity on the upcoming elections would likely emerge by early 2026. He linked NIM performance to the Central Bank's cautious stance on inflation, which could delay rate cuts and support margins. Chief Economist Laura Clavijo added that strong economic activity justifies the central bank's cautious approach. Mr. Mora concluded that the sustainable cost of risk is 1.8-1.9%, but could be near 1.6% for 2025 due to positive economic trends and improved asset quality.

Ernesto Gabilondo inquired about Colombia's political landscape ahead of the elections, the expected normalization of Net Interest Margins (NIMs), potential strategies to protect margins such as adjusting the loan mix, and the sustainable long-term level for the cost of risk.

Answer

CEO Juan Carlos Mora Uribe, with input from Chief Economist Laura Clavijo, addressed the questions. Mr. Mora noted that while political noise is increasing, clarity on candidates is not expected until early next year. On NIMs, they explained that the Central Bank's cautious stance on inflation will likely delay interest rate cuts, providing a better-than-expected margin in the near term, with a potential normalization around 6% later. They confirmed a strategy to increase consumer loans would help margins. The sustainable cost of risk is seen around 1.8-1.9%, though performance in 2025 could be closer to 1.6% due to positive economic trends.

Ernesto Gabilondo of Bank of America Merrill Lynch inquired about Colombia's political landscape, the normalization outlook for Net Interest Margin (NIM), strategies to protect NIM such as loan mix adjustments, and the sustainable long-term level for the cost of risk.

Answer

CEO Juan Carlos Mora Uribe addressed the political situation, noting increased noise ahead of elections. He explained that NIM is linked to the Central Bank's cautious stance on inflation, which may delay rate cuts and support margins in the near term. Chief Economist Laura Clavijo added that robust economic activity and inflation pressures support a more restrictive monetary policy. Regarding credit, Mr. Mora stated the cost of risk guidance is 1.6-1.8% for the year, with a sustainable level around 1.8-1.9%, and confirmed a focus on growing the consumer loan portfolio would help margins.

Ernesto Gabilondo inquired about Chile's political landscape, including presidential polls and potential regulations on taxes and banking. He also asked for the outlook on Net Interest Margins (NIMs) for the upcoming year and the bank's medium-term Return on Equity (ROE) target, along with the desired minimum Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio.

Answer

Chief Economist Rodrigo Aravena discussed the political scenario, noting a likely second-round election and a growing consensus on pro-growth policies. He projected the policy rate to fall to around 4.25%. Head of IR Pablo Mejia addressed NIMs, suggesting a medium-term range of 4.5%-4.7%, and stated the bank's aspiration is to lead the industry in ROE. Head of Financial Control Daniel Galarce added that the bank aims to maintain a CET1 buffer of at least 1% above regulatory minimums once growth resumes.

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America Merrill Lynch inquired about the future contribution of consumer loans, the sustainable cost of risk for Santander Chile, the bank's long-term sustainable ROE, and the corresponding Common Equity Tier 1 ratio.

Answer

Andrés Sansone, Chief Economist, responded that healthy demand from credit cards is expected to drive consumer loan growth slightly above the portfolio average. He projected the cost of risk to improve to around 1.35% for the year, with a gradual normalization toward 1.2% in subsequent periods. Sansone also confirmed a long-term ROE target above 20%, supported by digital transformation and efficiency, while maintaining a comfortable CET1 ratio near the current 11% level.

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America Merrill Lynch inquired about the future contribution of consumer loans, the sustainable cost of risk, the long-term sustainable ROE, and the associated CET1 ratio.

Answer

Andrés Sansone, Chief Economist, stated that consumer lending demand is expected to grow slightly above the average loan growth. He projected the cost of risk to be around 1.35% for 2025, with a gradual normalization toward 1.2% in subsequent periods. Sansone affirmed a long-term ROE target above 20%, supported by digital efficiencies, and expressed comfort with the current CET1 ratio of approximately 11%.