Ernesto Gabilondo

Ernesto Gabilondo asked for color on NPLs, specifically if they peaked in Q4 2025 and if they are expected to trend down in 2026. He also inquired about income growth, recurring OpEx growth (excluding restructuring), the timeline for ROE returning to high teens, long-run expectations for financing sectors leveraging the bank's capital, and capital allocation plans (buybacks, dividends, M&A).

Answer

Jorge Scarinci (CFO) expects NPLs to trend down to mid-to-low threes in 2026, with more positive numbers in H2 2026, aligning with a 5.2% cost of risk. He mentioned financing projects in energy, mining, and agribusiness, leveraging the bank's strong capital. He discussed a proposed 100% cash dividend payout ratio and using excess capital for organic/inorganic growth, dividends, and potential buybacks. He projected mid-teen ROEs between 2028-2030, potentially coinciding with a return to nominal reporting. Juan Parma (CEO) added that the full benefits of the restructuring program would be realized by the end of 2027/2028, compensating for margin compression, and highlighted the bank's liquidity and funding strength for longer-duration projects, emphasizing selective lending.

Ernesto Gabilondo asked for color on NPL trends for 2026, confirming if NPLs have peaked and are expected to decline. He also inquired about income and recurring OpEx growth, the timeline for ROE returning to high teens, long-run expectations for financing key sectors, and capital allocation plans including buybacks, dividends, or M&A.

Answer

Jorge Scarinci, CFO of Banco Macro, expects NPLs to trend down to mid-to-low threes in 2026, aligning with a forecasted cost of risk of 5.2%. He anticipates NPL improvements to be more pronounced in the second half of 2026. Mr. Scarinci highlighted investment opportunities in energy and mining sectors, which Banco Macro is prepared to finance with its strong capital base. He confirmed a 100% cash dividend payout ratio proposed for 2025, pending Central Bank approval, and mentioned using excess capital for organic/inorganic growth, dividends, and potential buybacks. He projected ROE returning to mid-teens between 2028 and 2030, coinciding with a potential return to nominal reporting if inflation remains below 100% for three consecutive years. Juan Parma, CEO of Banco Macro, added that the full benefits of the restructuring program, which continues through 2027, will be realized by 2028, further supporting ROE expansion. He also emphasized the bank's liquidity and funding strength to support long-duration projects in energy, mining, and infrastructure.

Ernesto Gabilondo asked about the expected peak for NPLs and cost of risk, the ROE outlook for 2025 and 2026, and potential M&A opportunities given Banco Macro's significant excess capital.

Answer

CFO Jorge Scarinci indicated that NPLs likely peaked between October and November, with cost of risk expected to be around 6.5% in Q4 2025 and 5% in 2026. He maintained the 8% ROE forecast for 2025 and reiterated the bank's readiness to explore M&A opportunities within the next 12-18 months.

Ernesto Gabilondo asked about the expected peak for NPLs and cost of risk, including a potential range, and sought the ROE forecast for 2025. He also inquired about the timeline for potential M&A activity given the bank's excess capital post-election.

Answer

CFO Jorge Scarinci stated that NPLs were expected to peak between October and November, with the cost of risk maintained at Q3's 6.5% in Q4, then forecasting 5% for 2026. He reaffirmed an 8% ROE target for 2025. Regarding M&A, he indicated the bank is actively looking for opportunities and expects news within 12-18 months, though it's not solely dependent on them.

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America Merrill Lynch inquired about the potential impact of recent interest rate volatility and debt auctions on Banco Macro's Net Interest Margin (NIM) and asset quality. He also asked about the bank's Return on Equity (ROE) expectations for the second half of 2025 and whether other banks were reducing their guidance.

Answer

Jorge Francisco Scarinci, CFO, acknowledged a volatile environment with rising funding costs but noted the bank's ability to manage them due to its atomized deposit base. He projected a 'timid reduction' in Q3 NIMs. Scarinci anticipates asset quality will deteriorate, with NPLs potentially reaching 2.5% to 3% by year-end due to high real interest rates. He also forecasted a cost of risk around 4% for the second half. Despite challenges, he confirmed that the bank is maintaining its full-year ROE guidance of 8% to 10% in real terms.

Inquired about the bank's macroeconomic outlook, expectations for operating expenses, the trajectory of the loan-to-deposit ratio, and the potential timing for M&A activities.

Answer

The bank provided its macro forecasts, including 5.3% GDP growth and 30% inflation for 2025. OpEx is expected to grow close to inflation. The loan-to-deposit ratio is projected to rise into the low 90s by year-end. Regarding M&A, the timing depends on opportunities arising, and the bank is not currently analyzing any deals, but an increased dividend is also a possibility for managing excess capital next year.

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America inquired about Banco Macro's macroeconomic expectations for 2025-2026, including interest rates, inflation, and GDP. He also asked about the outlook for operating expense growth, the evolution of the loan-to-deposit ratio, and the potential timing for M&A activity relative to political events.

Answer

Jorge Francisco Scarinci, Finance & Investor Relations Manager, provided forecasts for 2025 inflation around 30% and 2026 GDP growth of 5.3%. He expects operating expenses to grow close to inflation in 2025 and the loan-to-deposit ratio to reach the low 90s. Regarding M&A, he reiterated that no targets are currently being analyzed and mentioned that the board might consider higher dividends in early 2026 to manage excess capital.

The analyst asked about the outlook for loan growth, asset quality, the bank's investment strategy concerning dual bonds and the upcoming elections, and the expected ROE for 2023 and 2024. He also inquired about the impact of the Itau acquisition on capital ratios and future M&A plans.

Answer

The CFO expects negative real loan growth for the rest of the year and has provisioned conservatively due to economic forecasts. The bank is heavily invested in dual and dollar-linked bonds ahead of the election. The 2023 real ROE is projected to be around 20%, but 2024 guidance is premature due to political uncertainty. Capital ratios will remain high (around 30%) post-acquisition, and all options for using excess capital, including M&A, are being considered.

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America asked for Grupo Cibest's perspective on the political and economic outlook, including the impact of the recent salary increase, the upcoming Congress election on March 8, and the proposals of the three leading presidential candidates. He also inquired about operating expenses, specifically if growth would remain around inflation +200 basis points, the impact of the salary increase on personal costs, and a breakdown of recurring versus technology/advertising costs for Nequi, Wenia, and Wompi.

Answer

Juan Carlos Mora, Chief Executive Officer, discussed the upcoming congressional elections, noting potential shifts in the Senate's composition and summarizing the presidential candidates' platforms, which range from government intervention to private initiatives. Mauricio Botero Wolff, Chief Strategy and Financial Officer, confirmed that operating expense growth is expected to be around inflation +2-3 percentage points, with 'run the business' costs growing with inflation and 'change the business' costs driving the additional growth. He acknowledged an indirect impact from the minimum wage increase on vendors, which is included in the guidance, and highlighted significant capital investments in digital companies and IT projects.

Ernesto Gabilondo asked about the political and economic outlook, including the impact of the recent salary increase, the upcoming Congress election on March 8, and the proposals of the three leading presidential candidates. He also inquired about operating expenses, specifically if growth would be around inflation plus 200 basis points, the impact of the salary increase on personal costs, and a breakdown of OpEx growth between recurring and technology/advertising costs for Nequi, Wenia, and Wompi.

Answer

CEO Juan Carlos Mora discussed the upcoming congressional elections, noting potential shifts in political composition, and summarized the general platforms of presidential candidates (left vs. center/right). CFO Mauricio Botero Wolff explained that 'run the business' OpEx would grow with inflation, while 'change the business' (digital initiatives, IT) would add 2-3 percentage points above inflation. He confirmed that the impact of the salary increase on vendor services is included in the guidance and mentioned capital figures for digital companies and IT investments as key drivers of OpEx growth, offering a more detailed breakdown post-call.

Ernesto Gabilondo of Bank of America Merrill Lynch inquired about Colombia's political landscape, the expected normalization of Net Interest Margin (NIM), and the sustainable long-term level for the cost of risk.

Answer

President & CEO Juan Carlos Mora Uribe addressed the political situation, noting that clarity on the upcoming elections would likely emerge by early 2026. He linked NIM performance to the Central Bank's cautious stance on inflation, which could delay rate cuts and support margins. Chief Economist Laura Clavijo added that strong economic activity justifies the central bank's cautious approach. Mr. Mora concluded that the sustainable cost of risk is 1.8-1.9%, but could be near 1.6% for 2025 due to positive economic trends and improved asset quality.

Ernesto Gabilondo of Bank of America Merrill Lynch inquired about Colombia's political landscape, the normalization outlook for Net Interest Margin (NIM), strategies to protect NIM such as loan mix adjustments, and the sustainable long-term level for the cost of risk.

Answer

CEO Juan Carlos Mora Uribe addressed the political situation, noting increased noise ahead of elections. He explained that NIM is linked to the Central Bank's cautious stance on inflation, which may delay rate cuts and support margins in the near term. Chief Economist Laura Clavijo added that robust economic activity and inflation pressures support a more restrictive monetary policy. Regarding credit, Mr. Mora stated the cost of risk guidance is 1.6-1.8% for the year, with a sustainable level around 1.8-1.9%, and confirmed a focus on growing the consumer loan portfolio would help margins.

Ernesto Gabilondo inquired about Colombia's political landscape ahead of the elections, the expected normalization of Net Interest Margins (NIMs), potential strategies to protect margins such as adjusting the loan mix, and the sustainable long-term level for the cost of risk.

Answer

CEO Juan Carlos Mora Uribe, with input from Chief Economist Laura Clavijo, addressed the questions. Mr. Mora noted that while political noise is increasing, clarity on candidates is not expected until early next year. On NIMs, they explained that the Central Bank's cautious stance on inflation will likely delay interest rate cuts, providing a better-than-expected margin in the near term, with a potential normalization around 6% later. They confirmed a strategy to increase consumer loans would help margins. The sustainable cost of risk is seen around 1.8-1.9%, though performance in 2025 could be closer to 1.6% due to positive economic trends.

Ernesto Gabilondo inquired about the expected moderation of Credicorp's OpEx growth in 2026 compared to 2025, the trajectory of digital initiatives towards the 10% adjusted revenue target, and the outlook for non-credit-related revenues or fees.

Answer

CFO Alejandro Pérez-Reyes stated that OpEx growth is expected to moderate in 2026, with increasing operational leverage from digital initiatives contributing to a midterm cost-to-income ratio target of 42%. He confirmed the 10% adjusted revenue target for digital initiatives is achievable for 2025 and anticipates double-digit growth in fee income. CEO Gianfranco Ferrari added that digital initiatives are projected to be ROE positive starting in 2026.

Ernesto Gabilondo asked about the political outlook in Peru, including the latest poll results, key election dates, potential candidates' proposals, and the timeline for renovating Congress members and the dual chamber system. He also inquired about Credicorp's OpEx growth, expectations for moderation in 2026, the target for digital initiatives' contribution to adjusted revenues by 2027-2028, and the outlook for non-credit-related revenues or fees.

Answer

Gianfranco Ferrari, CEO, and Alejandro Pérez-Reyes, CFO, responded that López Aliaga was leading polls at 12%, followed by Keiko Fujimori at 8%, with 42% undecided. They noted pro-market plans from leading candidates and highlighted the return to a dual chamber system (Senate and Congress) for increased political stability, with all votes scheduled for April 12th. Regarding OpEx, Alejandro Pérez-Reyes stated that growth was within guidance, driven by innovation and core business investments, but expected more operational leverage and a more moderate growth rate in 2026, targeting a midterm cost-to-income ratio of 42%. He confirmed the 10% adjusted revenue target from digital initiatives for the current year and anticipated double-digit growth in fee income.

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America inquired about Credicorp's asset quality, specifically questioning if the current cost of risk guidance of 1.8% for the year-end is too conservative given better-than-expected performance. He also asked about the expected cost of risk for 2026, considering the planned acceleration into higher-yield segments, and sought clarification on OpEx growth breakdown between disruptive initiatives and ongoing business for the next year.

Answer

CEO Gianfranco Ferrari and Chief Risk Officer César Ríos explained that the better asset quality results were due to improved risk management and a more dynamic economic backdrop, with consumer spending growing faster. They confirmed the year-end cost of risk would be at the lower end of guidance, around 1.8%. For 2026, they anticipate a gradual increase in cost of risk due to a shift towards higher-margin portfolios, but expect risk-adjusted NIM to also increase. CFO Alejandro Perez-Reyes addressed OpEx, stating that while this quarter saw significant growth due to planned investments, core business OpEx growth should slow next year, while innovation-related OpEx would remain similar to support income generation and the medium-term efficiency target of 42%.

Ernesto Gabilondo asked about the conservatism of the cost of risk guidance for the current year, given better-than-expected NPLs, and inquired about the expected cost of risk for 2026 with accelerated growth in high-yield segments. He also asked about the double-digit OpEx growth this quarter and the expected breakdown for next year between disruptive initiatives and ongoing business.

Answer

CEO Gianfranco Ferrari introduced the topic. Chief Risk Officer Cesar Rios explained that better results were due to improved risk management and a more dynamic economy, confirming the cost of risk would be at the lower end of the 1.8% guidance. For 2026, he expects a gradual increase in cost of risk due to portfolio shifts, but with an overall increase in risk-adjusted NIM. CFO Alejandro Perez-Reyes addressed OpEx, stating that current growth was planned for capability revamping. He expects lower growth in core business expenses next year and similar growth in innovation, aiming for the 42% medium-term efficiency target.

Ernesto Gabilondo inquired about the future impact of Rutas de Lima in 2026, the expected growth for credit cards, personal loans, and corporate loans, and how this will affect asset quality, NPLs, and cost of risk. He also asked about OpEx growth for the year and the company's sustainable ROE target, comparing it to peers.

Answer

Luis Felipe Castellanos, CEO of Intercorp Financial Services, stated that no further material impairments are expected for Rutas de Lima in 2026. Gonzalo Basadre, CEO of Interseguro, confirmed the conservative valuation. Carlos Tori, CEO of Interbank, detailed expectations for accelerated growth in higher-yielding loans in 2026, anticipating a slight increase in cost of risk to 2%-2.5%. Luis Felipe Castellanos reiterated the midterm ROE target of 18%+ and acknowledged 20%+ could be achievable with sustained economic performance and consumer loan recovery.

Ernesto Gabilondo asked about the expected impact of Rutas de Lima in 2026, the anticipated loan growth and asset quality trends for credit cards and personal loans, the outlook for OpEx growth, and the long-term sustainability of the company's ROE, specifically regarding the 18% midterm target and the potential to reach 20% like peers.

Answer

Luis Felipe Castellanos (CEO, Intercorp Financial Services) stated that with 80% of Rutas de Lima provisioned, no further material impact is expected in 2026. He noted that higher-yielding loans are picking up, which will lead to a slight increase in the cost of risk. OpEx growth is expected to be similar to 2025 due to continued investments in technology and teams. He reiterated the midterm ROE target of 18%+ and acknowledged that 20%+ is achievable if the Peruvian economy performs well. Gonzalo Basadre (CEO, Interseguro) confirmed a conservative valuation for Rutas de Lima, expecting no additional charges. Carlos Tori (CEO, Interbank) added that higher-yielding loan growth (credit cards, personal loans, SMEs) accelerated in H2 2025, despite AFP withdrawals, and expects continued acceleration in 2026, with cost of risk moving closer to 2-2.5%.

Ernesto Gabilondo of Bank of America Merrill Lynch inquired about Intercorp's outlook on Net Interest Margin (NIM) for H2 2025 and beyond, the trajectory for cost of risk as consumer lending recovers, and the expected growth rate for operating expenses.

Answer

CFO Michela Casassa Ramat explained that NIM should improve in H2 2025 due to a normalizing loan mix and reduced excess liquidity. She also noted the cost of risk is currently low but will rise slightly with renewed consumer loan growth. EVP & Interbank CEO Carlos Tori Grande attributed higher expenses to strategic investments in technology and talent, while CEO Luis Felipe Castellanos López-Torres confirmed this trend across all subsidiaries.

Ernesto Gabilondo of Bank of America inquired about the competitive landscape and the evolution of the credit card portfolio, asking how Intercorp's performance compares to its competitors in a recovering market.

Answer

Executive Luis Castellanos López-Torres responded that after a challenging credit cycle, there is a renewed appetite for consumer loan growth across the banking system. He noted that Intercorp is beginning to see growth in its own credit card book and that the market as a whole is recovering, though some competitors are more aggressive than others.

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America inquired about the economic and political outlook, specifically regarding potential tax rate reductions and credit card limit changes. He also asked for a breakdown of Banco de Chile's loan growth expectations by segment and details on the bank's capital allocation strategy, including future market share gains given its high CET1 ratio.

Answer

Rodrigo Aravena, Chief Economist and Institutional Relations Officer, highlighted a positive economic outlook driven by domestic demand and consumer/business confidence, noting potential upside risks to GDP forecasts. He mentioned the new government's potential tax reform to reduce corporate tax rates. Pablo Mejia, Head of Investor Relations, discussed potential benefits from credit card limit changes and provided nominal loan growth expectations: around 7% for key segments, 6% for consumer loans, 5% for mortgage loans, and 8% for commercial loans, with a focus on SMEs. Daniel Galarce, Head of Financial Control and Capital Management, stated the bank's intention to use its strong capital position for organic growth, aiming to grow above the industry and maintain capital ratios at least 1% above regulatory limits in the long run.

Ernesto Gabilondo asked about the economic and political outlook, specifically regarding potential reductions in the statutory tax rate and credit card limits. He also inquired about Banco de Chile's loan growth expectations broken down by segment, and the bank's capital allocation strategy given its high common equity tier one ratio and approved dividend payout.

Answer

Rodrigo Aravena (Chief Economist and Institutional Relations Officer) discussed the positive economic outlook driven by domestic demand and consumer confidence, and the potential for tax reform under the new government. Pablo Mejia (Head of Investor Relations) addressed the early discussions on credit card limit reductions and provided nominal loan growth expectations for the industry (4.5%) and Banco de Chile's key segments (7% overall, 6% consumer, 5% mortgage, 8% commercial with SME focus). Daniel Galarce (Head of Financial Control and Capital Management) explained the bank's intention to use its capital for growth, aiming to retake market share in 2026 and maintain capital ratios at least 1% above regulatory limits.

Ernesto Gabilondo inquired about Chile's political landscape, including presidential polls and potential regulations on taxes and banking. He also asked for the outlook on Net Interest Margins (NIMs) for the upcoming year and the bank's medium-term Return on Equity (ROE) target, along with the desired minimum Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio.

Answer

Chief Economist Rodrigo Aravena discussed the political scenario, noting a likely second-round election and a growing consensus on pro-growth policies. He projected the policy rate to fall to around 4.25%. Head of IR Pablo Mejia addressed NIMs, suggesting a medium-term range of 4.5%-4.7%, and stated the bank's aspiration is to lead the industry in ROE. Head of Financial Control Daniel Galarce added that the bank aims to maintain a CET1 buffer of at least 1% above regulatory minimums once growth resumes.

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America inquired about the economic and political outlook, specifically regarding potential reductions in the statutory tax rate and credit cap limits. He also asked for a breakdown of Banco Santander-Chile's mid-single-digit loan growth expectations by segment and sought more details on the implications and cash proceeds from the sale of Getnet.

Answer

Lorena Palomeque, Economist, stated that growth projections for 2026 and 2027 were revised upward due to copper prices and internal demand, with tax reduction effects expected later in 2027 and the second half of 2026. Cristián Vicuña, Head of Strategy and Investor Relations, noted that credit card limit discussions would likely take longer in Congress, not expecting changes in 2026. Patricia Pérez, CFO, detailed loan growth expectations, highlighting steady auto lending, improving installment loans, reactivation in commercial mining investment, and gradual improvements in mortgage demand, especially in the affluent segment. Cristián Vicuña further explained the Getnet transaction, mentioning an initial payment of CLP 68 billion, a service agreement for 10% of net operating revenues for 7+3 years, and negligible P&L impact, with strong shareholder approval.

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America inquired about the economic and political outlook, specifically regarding potential reductions in the statutory tax rate and credit cap limits. He also asked for a breakdown of the bank's mid-single-digit loan growth expectations by segment and sought more details on the implications and cash proceeds from the sale of Getnet.

Answer

Lorena Palomeque, Economist, explained that growth projections for 2026 and 2027 were revised upward due to copper prices, trading partners, and internal demand, with tax reduction effects expected later in 2027. Cristián Vicuña, Head of Strategy and Investor Relations, added that credit card limit discussions would take longer in Congress. Patricia Pérez, CFO, detailed loan growth expectations, noting steady consumer growth (especially auto lending), a reactivation in commercial investment (mining), and gradual improvements in mortgages, supported by the bank's liquidity and capital. Cristián Vicuña further elaborated on the Getnet sale, highlighting a strategic partnership to strengthen its market position, an initial payment of CLP 68 billion, and a service agreement ensuring Banco Santander-Chile receives 10% of net operating revenues for 7+3 years, with a negligible P&L impact and approximately 20 basis points ROE effect, approved by a strong majority of shareholders.

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America Merrill Lynch inquired about the future contribution of consumer loans, the sustainable cost of risk for Santander Chile, the bank's long-term sustainable ROE, and the corresponding Common Equity Tier 1 ratio.

Answer

Andrés Sansone, Chief Economist, responded that healthy demand from credit cards is expected to drive consumer loan growth slightly above the portfolio average. He projected the cost of risk to improve to around 1.35% for the year, with a gradual normalization toward 1.2% in subsequent periods. Sansone also confirmed a long-term ROE target above 20%, supported by digital transformation and efficiency, while maintaining a comfortable CET1 ratio near the current 11% level.

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America Merrill Lynch inquired about the future contribution of consumer loans, the sustainable cost of risk, the long-term sustainable ROE, and the associated CET1 ratio.

Answer

Andrés Sansone, Chief Economist, stated that consumer lending demand is expected to grow slightly above the average loan growth. He projected the cost of risk to be around 1.35% for 2025, with a gradual normalization toward 1.2% in subsequent periods. Sansone affirmed a long-term ROE target above 20%, supported by digital efficiencies, and expressed comfort with the current CET1 ratio of approximately 11%.

Ernesto Gabilondo asked about Grupo Financiero Galicia's loan growth expectations for the next year, including segment-specific color and participation in new private investments in Argentina, particularly in oil & gas, mining, and agribusiness. He also sought clarification on the expected NPL ratio peak and cost of risk trends.

Answer

Gonzalo Fernández Covaro (CFO, Grupo Financiero Galicia) projected 25% real loan growth for next year, aiming to gain market share, with commercial lending focusing on oil & gas, mining, and agribusiness. He confirmed an NPL peak around March next year at 6-7% and a cost of risk peak between 9-10% for the bank. He also mentioned exploring bond markets for financing.

Ernesto Gabilondo asked about Grupo Supervielle's loan growth expectations for the current and next year, specifically per segment, and inquired about private investment announcements in Argentina. He also sought color on the company's ROE expectations for the current year and general trends for the next year.

Answer

Patricio Supervielle (Chairman and CEO) explained that loan growth in 2025 was constrained but expects 30-40% real loan growth in 2026, led by corporates and SMEs (especially oil and gas), with retail picking up in Q2 2026. He also discussed long-term ROE drivers, aiming for 15-20% ROE. Alejandro Catterberg (President, Poliarquía Consultores) provided insights into regional private investments, particularly in extractive industries like mining and oil & gas, and their impact on political power distribution. Mariano Biglia (CFO) complemented on ROE, expecting high single digits or low double digits for 2026, reaching medium-term targets by year-end, contingent on easing monetary policy and NPL improvements.

Ernesto Gabilondo asked about Grupo Supervielle's loan growth expectations for the current year and next, seeking segment-specific color and details on private investment announcements impacting lending. He also inquired about ROE expectations for the current year and general trends for the upcoming year.

Answer

Patricio Supervielle, Chairman and CEO, stated that loan growth was constrained but signs of a turn are emerging, with corporate and SME lending leading in Q4 2025 and early 2026, and retail picking up in Q2 2026. He projected 30%-40% real loan growth for 2026. Regarding ROE, he expressed a constructive long-term view, driven by bank releveraging, improved consumer confidence, and cost controls, aiming for convergence with regional peers. Alejandro Catterberg, President of Poliarquía Consultores, provided insights into booming extractive industries and regional projects driving economic shifts. Mariano Biglia, CFO, complemented on ROE, suggesting high single-digit or low double-digit ROE for next year, reaching medium-term targets by year-end, contingent on easing monetary policy and NPL improvements.

Ernesto Gabilondo inquired about Grupo Supervielle's asset quality and cost of risk, asking if the peak occurred in Q2 and what the trend would be for the next year. He also questioned the ROE expectations for 2026 and asked about key political dates to monitor, such as the provincial elections.

Answer

Gustavo Manriquez, CEO of Banco Supervielle, and Diego Pizzulli, CEO of IOL invertironline, explained that the NPL ratio increase is part of an industry-wide credit normalization and a shift in customer behavior post-inflation. CFO Mariano Biglia confirmed the cost of risk likely peaked, guiding for 5-5.5% for the year and into 2026, with a 2026 ROE target of around 15%. Regarding the political landscape, Manriquez highlighted the September provincial election as a key indicator but stressed the October national election's greater importance for the government's mandate.

Ernesto Gabilondo inquired about Grupo Supervielle's asset quality, questioning if the cost of risk had peaked in Q2 and its expected trend. He also asked for ROE expectations for the next year and later asked about key political dates to monitor, such as the Buenos Aires provincial election.

Answer

Gustavo Manriquez, CEO of Banco Supervielle, and Diego Pizzulli, CEO of IOL invertironline, attributed the NPL rise to industry-wide credit normalization and customer adaptation to a low-inflation environment. CFO Mariano Biglia confirmed the cost of risk likely peaked and guided for it to be 5-5.5% for the year and stable into 2026. For ROE, Biglia projected a potential increase to 15% for 2026. Regarding politics, Manriquez identified the September provincial election as a key indicator but emphasized the October national election as more significant for securing the government's mandate.

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America Merrill Lynch inquired about Grupo Supervielle's asset quality, questioning the drivers behind the normalized NPL ratio of 2% and the simultaneous increase in provision charges. He specifically asked about potential trouble in the corporate or agriculture sectors and sought clarity on the cost of risk outlook for the year, noting the Q1 figure was above the full-year guidance.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Julio Patricio Supervielle, CFO Mariano Biglia, and Banco Supervielle CEO Gustavo Manriquez clarified that the NPL increase is a normalization driven by the strategic shift and rapid growth in the retail loan portfolio, not distress in specific sectors like agriculture. They confirmed the updated full-year guidance for NPLs (2.2%-2.5%) and cost of risk (4%-4.5%), explaining that the higher Q1 cost of risk was anticipated and is expected to moderate in subsequent quarters.

Ernesto Gabilondo from Bank of America Merrill Lynch questioned the drivers behind the rise in the NPL ratio and cost of risk, asking if specific corporate sectors like agriculture were in distress and seeking clarity on the cost of risk evolution for the rest of the year.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Julio Patricio Supervielle and CFO Mariano Biglia explained the increase as a normalization of credit quality driven by the strategic and rapid expansion of the higher-margin retail loan portfolio, not by distress in corporate sectors. They confirmed the Q1 cost of risk was elevated but expect it to decrease through the year to meet the full-year guidance of 4.0% to 4.5%.