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Ethan Kelly

Research Analyst at TD Cowen & Company

Ethan Kelly's questions to Aurora Innovation (AUR) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Ethan Kelly inquired about the visibility Aurora has regarding customer interest for thousands of trucks in 2027 and the number of lanes required to support such demand. He also asked about the locked-in status of costs for the second-generation commercial hardware kit on the new International fleet, the ramp-up, and factors influencing the target for break-even gross margin by year-end.

Answer

Chris Urmson, Co-Founder and CEO, and David Maday, CFO, explained that the southern U.S. freight corridor can absorb immense traffic, and Aurora's accelerated ability to build map content and the generalized Aurora Driver make unlocking new lanes a rapid operational exercise driven by customer demand. David Maday added that customer interest for thousands of trucks is evident, especially from large fleet customers. Chris Urmson confirmed that second-generation hardware costs are well understood and locked in, with some exposure to tariffs. He noted that the cost structure also depends on remote support and recovery rates, which are on track to achieve gross margin targets.

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Question · Q4 2025

Ethan Kelly from TD Cowen & Company inquired about Aurora's customer interest for 2027, specifically the pipeline of thousands of trucks, and the visibility into the number of lanes required to support this demand. He also asked about the cost certainty of the second-generation commercial hardware kit for the International fleet and the factors influencing the target of break-even gross margin by year-end.

Answer

Co-Founder and CEO Chris Urmson and CFO David Maday explained that the southern U.S. freight corridor can absorb significant traffic, with new lanes rapidly deployed based on customer demand due to the generalized Aurora Driver and accelerated map content. Maday detailed that thousands of trucks are attainable given the market size and large customer requirements. Urmson and Maday confirmed hardware costs are well understood, with BOM, scale, and manufacturing expertise driving reductions, and expressed confidence in achieving break-even gross margin through remote support and on-site assistance.

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