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Fahad Tariq

Senior Equity Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group Inc.

Fahad Tariq is a Senior Equity Analyst at Jefferies specializing in coverage of global mining companies such as Barrick Mining, Newmont Mining, Ero Copper Corp., and OceanaGold. Recognized for his rigorous research, Tariq maintains a success rate around 65% with over 20 stocks, and is rated 3.89 stars by TipRanks for his stock recommendations, indicating strong investment performance. He joined Jefferies in recent years following prior analyst roles, and has established a reputation for accurate calls and sector expertise. Tariq holds professional credentials, including FINRA registration and relevant securities licenses, further validating his standing in the industry.

Fahad Tariq's questions to Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Fahad Tariq with Jefferies inquired about the sourcing of the Minera Florida transaction, specifically whether it involved a pre-existing relationship or a formal process for acquiring the third-party royalty from a family. He also sought an update on the international arbitration regarding the ATO stream with Step Gold, including ongoing discussions and expectations for resolution, and clarified if discussions were directly with Step Gold or its largest shareholder.

Answer

James Dendle, COO, explained that the Minera Florida deal involved a concentrated process where Triple Flag developed a rapport with the family, allowing for a site visit and access to Pan American Silver's team. Sheldon Vanderkooi, CEO, stated confidence in their legal position regarding the ATO stream, noting Step Gold's ability to pay the owed $10 million US. He confirmed dialogue with Step's controlling shareholder, which he considers discussions with Step Gold, but could not elaborate further on resolution specifics.

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Question · Q3 2025

Fahad Tariq inquired about the sourcing of the Minera Florida transaction, specifically if it involved a pre-existing relationship or a formal process, and requested an update on the international arbitration concerning the ATO stream with Step Gold, including the status of discussions and expectations for resolution.

Answer

James Dendle, COO, explained that the Minera Florida deal involved a concentrated process and building rapport with the family, which allowed for a site visit. Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO, stated confidence in their legal position regarding the ATO stream, noting that Step Gold owes $10 million U.S. and has the financial capacity to pay. He confirmed ongoing dialogue with Step's controlling shareholder and reiterated that Triple Flag expects to meet its guidance even without further contributions from Step Gold.

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Question · Q2 2025

Fahad Tariq asked about potential offsets for the anticipated 2026 production decline from Northparks and Cerro Lindo. He also inquired about the current deal pipeline, including deal size, commodity focus, and the company's philosophical stance on corporate M&A.

Answer

CEO Sheldon Vanderkooy identified upcoming production from the Arcata and Johnson Camp mines as potential offsets for 2026. He characterized the deal pipeline as 'really full,' with a focus on precious metals opportunities in the $100 million to $300 million range located in the Americas and Australia. Vanderkooy also expressed a favorable view on corporate M&A, referencing the past success of the Mavericks Metals acquisition.

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Fahad Tariq's questions to KINROSS GOLD (KGC) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Fahad Tariq asked about Kinross Gold's cost reduction efforts and productivity improvements across its portfolio, and then inquired about the Bald Mountain Redbird pit's contribution (incremental vs. displacement) and the justification for its heap leach expansion.

Answer

Claude Schimper (COO, Kinross Gold) explained that the company has various global initiatives focusing on cost elements, including working with contractors, labor improvements, training standardization, and optimizing maintenance spares. Will Dunford (VP and General Director of CMGC, Kinross Gold) clarified that the Redbird pit provides incremental tons and ounces, supported by ongoing heap leach expansions at Bald Mountain, which are frequent and justified by the Redbird pit itself.

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Question · Q3 2025

Fahad Tariq followed up on the Bald Mountain heap leach expansion, asking if the Redbird pit alone would justify a larger operation, even without new satellite pits.

Answer

Will Dunford, VP and General Director of CMGC, affirmed that Redbird is sufficient to justify heap leach expansions, which are a frequent occurrence at Bald Mountain, with various heap pads expanded as needed for anchor pits or satellites.

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Question · Q2 2025

Fahad Tariq inquired about the production outlook for the Bald Mountain mine in the second half of 2025, following high grades in Q2, and questioned if the overall U.S. operations were trending above full-year guidance.

Answer

EVP & COO Claude Schimper explained that Bald Mountain's production will be slightly lower in the second half as mining transitions from the high-grade LBM pit to the Redbird startup. He confirmed that while U.S. operations had a strong first half, performance is expected to be slightly lower in the second half, particularly at Fort Knox, aligning with full-year guidance.

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Fahad Tariq's questions to FRANCO NEVADA (FNV) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Fahad Tariq inquired about Franco-Nevada's deal pipeline, specifically its commodity focus given high gold prices and the historical countercyclical strategy. He also asked about plans to expand the gold business in Australia and the company's stance on specific commodities like natural gas, lithium brine, and oil.

Answer

Paul Brink, President and CEO, Franco-Nevada Corporation, stated that precious metals remain the number one commodity focus, with a good pipeline for gold deals. He noted that strong organic growth allows for discipline in acquisitions, and the company remains open to diversified deals if good value is present. Brink confirmed efforts to grow the business in Australia, including adding Matt Selby to the team, and expressed openness to good value transactions in natural gas, lithium, and oil.

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Question · Q3 2025

Fahad Tariq inquired about Franco-Nevada's deal pipeline, specifically its commodity focus given high gold prices, potential expansion in Australia, and the company's historical countercyclical strategy. He also asked about specific interest in natural gas, lithium brine, and oil transactions.

Answer

Paul Brink, President and CEO, stated that precious metals remain the primary focus for the pipeline, with strong organic growth expected. He confirmed plans to grow the business in Australia, led by Matt Selby, and expressed openness to diversified deals in natural gas, lithium, and oil if good value is present, regardless of commodity prices.

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Question · Q2 2025

Fahad Tariq inquired about the rationale for suspending the Cobre Panama arbitration and whether recent large acquisitions have altered the company's perspective on future deal sizes.

Answer

President & CEO Paul Brink explained that suspending the arbitration was a request from Panama's government to facilitate a resolution for restarting the mine. He also affirmed that the company's capacity for large deals remains unchanged, citing strong annual cash flow of approximately $1.3 billion and ample liquidity from their credit facility.

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Question · Q2 2025

Fahad Tariq inquired about the rationale for suspending the Cobre Panama arbitration and whether recent large acquisitions have altered the company's strategy regarding future deal sizes.

Answer

President and CEO Paul Brink explained that suspending the arbitration was a request from the Panamanian government to facilitate a positive resolution and mine restart. He also affirmed that the company's deal-making capacity is not restricted, citing strong annual cash flow of approximately $1.3 billion and available credit, which provide ample firepower for future transactions.

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Fahad Tariq's questions to AGNICO EAGLE MINES (AEM) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Fahad Tariq inquired about Agnico Eagle's new subsidiary for non-core critical mineral investments, seeking clarity on the types of assets it would hold, its future strategy for equity investments versus project development, and the company's approach to government relations with the new Canadian federal government, including potential opportunities for Nunavut infrastructure.

Answer

Ammar Al-Joundi (CEO) explained that the subsidiary, which includes investments like Canada Nickel, provides independence for a small team to explore critical metals opportunities, with Agnico Eagle retaining a first look but no obligation for further investment. Regarding government relations, Mr. Al-Joundi expressed satisfaction with the new government's engagement, noting increased dialogue on mining's importance to Canada.

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Question · Q3 2025

Fahad Tariq asked about Agnico Eagle's new subsidiary for non-core critical mineral investments, inquiring about the types of assets it will hold, its future strategy for equity investments or project development, and the company's engagement with the new federal government in Canada regarding mining and Nunavut infrastructure opportunities.

Answer

Ammar Al-Joundi (CEO) explained that the subsidiary, which will include investments like Canada Nickel, aims to give a small team independence to explore critical metal opportunities while Agnico Eagle remains gold-focused. He emphasized that the company is not obliged to invest more capital but will have a first look at opportunities. Regarding government relations, Mr. Al-Joundi expressed satisfaction with the new Canadian government, noting increased dialogue and interest in mining's contribution to Canada, particularly for Nunavut infrastructure.

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Question · Q2 2025

Fahad Tariq from Jefferies Financial Group inquired about Agnico Eagle's capital return strategy, specifically the rationale for choosing between share buybacks and dividends, and whether valuation influences this decision. He also asked for the grade outlook at the Macassa mine for the second half of the year.

Answer

EVP & CFO Jamie Porter explained that the company is taking a balanced approach, increasing both dividends and buybacks. He noted that buybacks are favored in the near term, with total shareholder returns potentially reaching $1.3 billion for the year if gold prices remain high. A dividend review is planned for later in the year. EVP & COO Natasha Vaz added that Macassa's strong H1 grades were due to localized positive reconciliations and are not factored into H2, which is expected to be softer but still on track to meet annual guidance.

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Question · Q1 2025

Fahad Tariq of Jefferies asked about the exceptionally high grades at the Macassa mine in Q1, questioning if the outperformance from two stopes was a one-time event or if similar grades could be expected going forward.

Answer

Executive Guy Gosselin explained that Macassa's geology includes high-grade 'jewelry box' zones that are difficult to predict with current drill spacing. While the company enjoys these occurrences, they cannot be reliably forecasted in the mine plan, suggesting the Q1 outperformance was not indicative of a new baseline.

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Fahad Tariq's questions to NEWMONT Corp /DE/ (NEM) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Fahad Tariq sought clarification on Newmont's 2026 production guidance, specifically if 'lower end' of the 2025 range (5.6 million ounces) implies a 5% reduction. He also asked if Newmont is experiencing any underlying cost inflation on labor, consumables, or fuel, beyond the gold price-driven increases in royalties and taxes.

Answer

Natascha Viljoen, President and COO of Newmont Corporation, clarified that the 5.6 million ounces guidance includes non-managed operations. For managed operations, which are around 4.2 million ounces, 2026 production is expected to be on the lower end of the typical plus or minus 5% guidance range. Regarding cost inflation, Ms. Viljoen acknowledged normal increases for labor and economic factors for major consumables. However, she emphasized that the biggest challenge comes from taxes, royalties, and worker participation, which Newmont has largely offset through its cost-savings initiatives.

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Question · Q3 2025

Fahad Tariq requested clarification on Newmont's 2026 production guidance, noting seemingly conflicting statements about it being 'within the same range as 2025' but also 'lower,' specifically asking if this implies a 5% reduction from 5.6 million ounces. He also inquired about underlying cost inflation (labor, consumables, fuel) beyond the gold price-driven royalties and taxes.

Answer

Natascha Viljoen, President and COO, clarified that the 5.6 million ounces guidance includes non-managed operations. For managed operations, which were 4.2 million ounces in 2025, 2026 production is expected to be at the lower end of the typical +/- 5% guidance range. Regarding cost inflation, Ms. Viljoen acknowledged normal increases for labor and economic factors for consumables, but stated that the biggest challenge remains taxes, royalties, and worker participation, which Newmont has largely offset through cost-saving initiatives.

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Question · Q2 2025

Fahad Tariq of Jefferies Financial Group sought clarification on the expected production decline at the Cadia and Penasquito mines in the third quarter, following their strong performance driven by high grades in Q2.

Answer

President and COO Natascha Viljoen explained the declines are due to planned mine sequencing. At Penasquito, operations are moving to areas with lower gold grades but higher silver, lead, and zinc. At Cadia, the current panel caves are nearing depletion, and the new cave will ramp up with initially lower grades, consistent with the mine plan.

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Fahad Tariq's questions to Hudbay Minerals (HBM) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Fahad Tariq of Jefferies Financial Group requested an outlook for the Manitoba operations in Q3, particularly concerning ore grades as a potential offset to wildfire-related shutdowns. He also followed up on whether there were any discussions with the U.S. administration about permitting for Copper World Phase II or the Mason project.

Answer

COO Andre Lauzon explained that Manitoba grades are expected to remain consistent for the rest of the year and that operations are expected to resume soon, keeping the company on track to meet guidance. President and CEO Peter Kukielski reiterated the focus remains on Copper World Phase 1, while Andre Lauzon added that the JV deal strengthens their position to advance other portfolio assets like Mason in the future.

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Fahad Tariq's questions to ROYAL GOLD (RGLD) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Fahad Tariq inquired about Royal Gold's deleveraging strategy and timeline following the Sandstorm and Horizon acquisitions, which are expected to increase the revolver balance to approximately $1.2 billion.

Answer

President and CEO William Heissenbuttel explained that Royal Gold plans to follow its historical practice of using excess cash flow to pay down debt from its revolving credit facility. He estimated a potential two-year timeline for repayment, assuming no other major business development opportunities arise, emphasizing that debt reduction is a key priority balanced with new investment opportunities.

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Fahad Tariq's questions to PAN AMERICAN SILVER (PAAS) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Fahad Tariq from Jefferies Financial Group inquired about the gold grade expectations at the Jacobina mine for the second half of the year, following comments on sequencing to lower-grade ores. He also requested more details on the Escobal consultation process, specifically the nature of upcoming meetings and Pan American's direct involvement.

Answer

COO Steve Busby explained that while Jacobina is moving towards mining at reserve grades, they will access some higher grades in H2 and remain confident in meeting guidance. Regarding Escobal, SVP of Strategic Initiatives Sean McAleer clarified that the government leads the consultation with the Xinka Parliament in a series of working meetings, and Pan American participates when called upon to provide information.

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Question · Q2 2025

Fahad Tariq from Jefferies Financial Group inquired about the gold grade expectations for the Jacobina mine in the second half of the year, following comments about sequencing to lower-grade ore. He also requested more details on the nature of the ongoing Escobal consultation meetings.

Answer

COO Steve Busby explained that while Jacobina is transitioning towards mining at reserve grades, the mine will access some higher-grade areas in the latter half of the year, maintaining confidence in the guidance. Regarding Escobal, CEO Michael Steinmann and SVP Sean McAleer clarified that the consultation is led by the Guatemalan government with the Xinka Parliament, and Pan American participates when requested, with working meetings expected to continue in the coming weeks.

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Fahad Tariq's questions to OR Royalties (OR) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Fahad Tariq asked for more detail on the specific assets driving the expected increase in GEOs for the second half of 2025 and questioned the company's strategic preference between producing versus development-stage royalties for corporate development.

Answer

Jason Attew, CEO, President & Director, explained that the second-half GEO growth is expected from Canadian Malartic's continued performance, an anticipated rise in silver grades at Mantos Blancos, and the ongoing ramp-ups at Tocantinsino and Nandimi. Regarding corporate development, Mr. Attew stated a preference for accretive deals on producing assets, but noted the competitive market makes this challenging. For development assets, the focus is strictly on high-quality projects in Tier-1 jurisdictions that can contribute GEOs within the company's five-year outlook.

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Fahad Tariq's questions to Ero Copper (ERO) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Fahad Tariq of Jefferies Financial Group asked for a reconciliation of Caraíba's strong Q2 cash cost performance against full-year guidance, and inquired about grade reconciliation and potential dilution from mechanization at Xavantina.

Answer

President and CEO Makko Defilippo clarified that while Caraíba's costs are trending well, lower grades are expected in H2, keeping costs within the lower half of the guidance range. For Xavantina, he reported that dilution from mechanized mining has been lower than manual methods and that grades are reconciling well with the block model.

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Question · Q2 2025

Fahad Tariq from Jefferies Financial Group asked for a reconciliation of Cariba's strong Q2 cash cost performance with the full-year guidance, questioning if costs could fall below the guided range. He also inquired about grade reconciliation and potential dilution from mechanization at the Javancina mine.

Answer

President and CEO Makko Defilippo clarified that while operational improvements at Cariba are driving efficiencies, a strategic shift to lower-grade ore in the second half will exert some upward cost pressure, positioning full-year costs in the lower half of the guidance range. Regarding Javancina, he noted that dilution from the new mechanized stopes has actually been lower than with previous manual methods and that grades are expected to align with the block model for the remainder of the year.

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Question · Q2 2025

Fahad Tariq asked for a reconciliation of Caraíba's strong Q2 cash costs against the full-year guidance, questioning if costs could fall below the range. He also asked about grade reconciliation at Xavantina and the potential for increased dilution from mechanization.

Answer

President & CEO Makko Defilippo clarified that while operational improvements are beneficial, lower grades expected in H2 would exert upward pressure on costs, likely keeping them within the lower half of the guidance range. He added that at Xavantina, dilution from mechanized mining has been lower than manual methods, and grades are reconciling as expected with the block model.

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