Fedor Shabalin

Fedor Shabalin asked if American Bitcoin is considering M&A activity, including acquiring additional sites, power capacity, or other strategic assets, especially given that assets tend to be cheaper in a bear market. He also requested clarification on the key drivers behind the gain on derivatives in the fourth quarter and the company's current EBITDA breakeven Bitcoin price.

Answer

Co-founder and Chief Strategy Officer Eric Trump confirmed that American Bitcoin is actively considering M&A opportunities, leveraging its strong brand and performance to explore partnerships or acquisitions across energy, data, and mining, particularly if they are accretive. Executive Chairman Asher Genoot explained that derivative gains stem from creative structures used to expand Bitcoin mining without immediate cash outlay, allowing the company to benefit from Bitcoin appreciation while having the option to buy out at a mark-to-market price or forego if Bitcoin declines.

Fedor Shabalin inquired about American Bitcoin's consideration of M&A activities, such as acquiring sites, power capacity, or strategic assets, given the current bear market. He also asked for details on the key drivers behind the gain on derivatives in the fourth quarter and the company's current EBITDA breakeven Bitcoin price.

Answer

Eric Trump, Co-founder and Chief Strategy Officer, confirmed active consideration of accretive M&A opportunities across energy, data, and mining, leveraging American Bitcoin's strong brand. Asher Genoot, Executive Chairman, explained that derivative gains stem from creative structures allowing Bitcoin mining expansion without immediate cash outlay, maintaining upside while managing risk. The EBITDA breakeven Bitcoin price was not explicitly provided.

Fedor Shabalin inquired about American Bitcoin's treasury strategy, specifically regarding active management of holdings through preferred instruments or hybrid securities, and its outlook on consolidation and opportunistic M&A in the digital asset treasury space.

Answer

Executive Chairman Asher Genoot stated that while fixed income markets offer arbitrage opportunities given Bitcoin's CAGR, the company is currently focused on building its collateral package and increasing equity value. He emphasized solving for tenure and downside protection to avoid margin calls, closely monitoring fixed income options. Regarding M&A, he acknowledged the theoretical accretion of acquiring companies trading under mNAV but highlighted practical challenges like SEC review timelines, potential post-announcement price increases, and integrating legacy operational baggage from reverse mergers.

Fedor Shabalin inquired about American Bitcoin's treasury strategy, specifically regarding active management, issuing preferred or hybrid securities, and the company's expectations for consolidation and opportunistic M&A in the digital asset treasury space.

Answer

Executive Chairman Asher Genoot stated that while fixed income markets offer arbitrage, the current focus is on building collateral and increasing equity value, prioritizing tenure and downside protection. Regarding M&A, he acknowledged the theoretical accretive value of acquiring companies trading under MNAV but cited practical challenges like SEC review timelines, potential stock price fluctuations, and integrating existing operational baggage.

Fedor Shabalin asked about the all-in break-even price for HIVE's Bitcoin mining operations and how current Bitcoin price levels influence capital allocation decisions for AI and HPC infrastructure. He also requested details on expected CapEx spending split between mining and AI/HPC for the next one to two quarters, and an update on the New Brunswick HPC facility's construction status and associated CapEx.

Answer

CEO Aydin Kilic outlined that 2025 focused on scaling Bitcoin mining, while 2026 prioritizes HPC revenue growth from $20 million to $225 million ARR, achieved by expanding the GPU cloud and converting New Brunswick to Tier-III HPC. He noted that GPU purchases benefit from OEM vendor financing (lease-to-own with single-digit interest), enabling a CapEx-light strategy. For New Brunswick, Kilic confirmed design and permitting are underway, with long lead items next, but declined to provide further CapEx specifics at this time.

Fedor Shabalin asked about the all-in break-even price for Bitcoin mining operations, how current Bitcoin levels influence capital allocation for AI and HPC, and expected CapEx spending for the next one to two quarters, split between mining and AI/HPC. He followed up on the New Brunswick HPC facility's construction status, milestones, and CapEx for upcoming quarters.

Answer

CEO Aydin Kilic stated 2025 focused on Bitcoin mining scaling, while 2026 prioritizes HPC revenue growth from $20 million to $225 million ARR, expanding the GPU cloud from 5,000 to 11,000 GPUs, and converting New Brunswick to Tier 3 HPC. He highlighted attractive OEM vendor financing for GPUs and a CapEx-light strategy with Bell AI Fabric. For Paraguay, a 100 MW PPA is in progress, with plans to build Tier 1 infrastructure adaptable for future Tier 3 HPC. For New Brunswick, design and permitting are underway, with long-lead items to be ordered, but no further CapEx specifics were provided at this time.

Fedor Shabalin requested an update on the timeline for the New Brunswick data center, specifically whether construction would be phased or completed at once. He also asked about hypothetical alternative paths to fully utilize capacity for AI cloud demand if the colocation agreement doesn't proceed, including the timing for GPU financing.

Answer

Aydin Kilic, CEO and President of HIVE, emphasized that the New Brunswick site is currently positioned as a hyperscaler colocation project due to institutional preference for stable, scaled revenues, targeting an $85 million ARR. He noted that while the unit economics of hyperscaler colo are modest (14 cents/kWh), they offer stability. He stated that the projections for HPC revenue in both base and blue sky cases were predicated on New Brunswick as hyperscaler colo, and advised to stay tuned for updates on its strategy and development.

Fedor Shabalin requested an update on the timeline for the New Brunswick data center, including whether construction would be phased or completed at once. He also asked about a hypothetical path to fully utilize the capacity for AI cloud demand if the colocation agreement does not proceed, including financing for GPU procurement.

Answer

Aydin Kilic, CEO and President of HIVE, emphasized New Brunswick's potential as a hyperscaler colocation project due to its strategic location and institutional preference for stable, scaled revenues. He noted that the $85 million target for New Brunswick was based on hyperscaler colocation and advised to stay tuned for updates on its strategy and development, as the company is currently focused on other GPU deployments.

Fedor Shabalin (B. Riley Securities) asked about the expected trend of Solana staking yields as network usage grows and validator competition intensifies, specifically addressing the historical dynamic of increased adoption potentially increasing yields via transaction fees or compressing them through greater validator participation. He also inquired about the nature and expected recurrence of the $3.4 million in related party G&A expenses, asking whether they relate to the digital asset business or other operations, and requested guidance on a normalized G&A run rate.

Answer

Kyle Samani, Chairman of the Board, clarified that increased validator participation does not impact staker yield, only validator competition. He explained that Solana's inflation schedule is decreasing by 15% annually to a 1.5% floor, currently around 4%-4.5%. He anticipates that as network activity and volatility increase, transaction fees, MEV, and tips will rise, leading to higher yields for stakers, expecting the composition of Forward's staking yield to shift from primarily inflation-based to network usage. Kathleen Weisberg, CFO, clarified that the related party expenses are tied to the launch of the digital asset treasury strategy, covering accounting and other support, and are expected to decrease in the coming months. She could not provide a specific normalized G&A run rate but confirmed it would be less.

Fedor Shabalin (B. Riley Securities) asked about the expected trend of Solana staking yields with increased network usage and validator competition, and later inquired about the nature, recurrence, and future guidance for the $3.4 million in related party G&A expenses.

Answer

Kyle Samani, Chairman of the Board, clarified that increased validators do not compress staker yields, and anticipated that growing network activity and volatility would increase yields from transaction fees, shifting from inflation-based rewards. Kathleen Weisberg, CFO, explained that the related party G&A expenses were tied to the digital asset treasury launch and are expected to decrease, though specific future guidance was not provided.

Fedor Shabalin asked about the revenue cadence heading into 2027, specifically the pace at which the remaining 60% of the pipeline converts to production revenue, and whether this positions the company to meaningfully inflect beyond the cash flow breakeven milestone. He also inquired about the expected pace and cadence of ADS buybacks in Q1 2026, balancing urgency with liquidity preservation.

Answer

Georges Karam, CEO and Chairman, confirmed that the pipeline's conversion implies significant growth, potentially doubling revenue as projects convert and remain long-term. He projected 60%+ growth in 2027, continuing into 2028, with 5G eRedCap acting as a major catalyst to expand market share. Regarding buybacks, Karam stated the company has authorization and will execute when the window is open, assessing share price against net cash and Bitcoin value, but did not provide specific Q1 targets, emphasizing a disciplined approach.

Fedor Shabalin asked about the revenue cadence for 2027, specifically how the remaining 60% of the design win pipeline is expected to convert to production revenue, and if the combination of LTE-M, Cat 1bis, and early 5G engagement will drive significant growth beyond the 2026 cash flow breakeven target. He also inquired about the expected pace and cadence of ADS buybacks in Q1 2026, considering the current share price and the balance between repurchasing stock and preserving liquidity.

Answer

Georges Karam, CEO and Chairman, confirmed that the converting design wins represent long-term business, with the remaining pipeline having the potential to double current revenue, projecting 60%+ growth in 2027. He emphasized that 5G eRedCap will be a significant catalyst in 2028, expanding market share with existing customers. Regarding buybacks, Karam stated the intention to execute on the authorization when the trading window is open, balancing share price valuation against net cash and Bitcoin price dynamics, but did not provide specific Q1 2026 targets.

Fedor Shabalin inquired about SharpLink's current multiple to net asset value (NAV) trading at a discount, asking about initiatives beyond share buybacks and the company's priorities. He also asked Joseph Lubin about Solana as a competitor to Ethereum, citing its speed and low cost, and how Ethereum maintains its lead, requesting details on the December Fusaka upgrade.

Answer

Joseph Chalom, Co-CEO, explained that a NAV discount provides opportunities for ETH per share growth through share buybacks (board-approved program in August) or by raising capital via convertible bonds or equity-linked structures without dilution. Joseph Lubin, Chairman, detailed the Fusaka upgrade's data availability sampling and parameter-based upgrading for blobs and gas limits, enhancing Layer 1 and Layer 2 scalability. He asserted Ethereum's lead over Solana, citing its 10-year uptime, significantly higher stablecoin activity (over 60% of $300B+), and dominance in tokenized real-world assets (over 80%) and high-quality DeFi liquidity.

Fedor Shabalin of B. Riley Securities asked about SharpLink's current multiple to net asset value (NAV) and initiatives being considered beyond share buybacks to address the stock trading at a discount. He also questioned how Ethereum plans to preserve its leading position against competitors like Solana, citing Solana's transaction speed and low cost, and requested more details on the ETH December upgrade.

Answer

Joseph Chalom, Co-CEO, explained that SharpLink views the compressed multiple to NAV as an opportunity for ETH per share growth, using equity issuance when above one and share buybacks when below one, and highlighted the unique fundraising opportunity in October. Joseph Lubin, Chairman, detailed the Fusaka upgrade, including data availability sampling, blobs, and parameter-based upgrading for greater Layer 1 and Layer 2 scalability, and mentioned MegaETH's transaction speeds. Chalom added that Ethereum dominates stablecoin and tokenized real-world asset activity, while Lubin emphasized Ethereum's 10 years of uninterrupted uptime.

Fedor Shabalin of B. Riley Securities requested a summary view on the expected evolution of average selling prices (ASP) through 2025 and into 2026, considering that some miners have postponed expansion plans.

Answer

CEO Nangeng Zhang explained that while the current hash price indicates a bull market, ASPs are artificially low due to supply-demand imbalances from U.S. tariff policies. He believes the solution is to increase U.S. production, which would normalize the market, albeit at a higher cost basis. Zhang expressed cautious optimism for ASPs in late 2025, supported by recovering demand and the upcoming launch of the higher-performance A16 series.

Fedor Shabalin of B. Riley Financial inquired about the development plan for the Panther Creek site, including the strategy for proceeding without pre-signed customers, the conditions for accessing the full Macquarie financing facility, and the total projected CapEx.

Answer

CEO Ben Gagnon explained that development is proceeding to meet the valuable 2026 power delivery timeline, with initial civil works and substation construction managed by T5 starting this year. He noted that while hyperscalers desire large campuses, the 2026 power availability makes their site highly attractive. CFO Jeff Lucas specified the CapEx for Panther Creek is approximately $10.5 million for the remainder of 2025, with a total projected build-out cost of around $400 million through 2026.

Fedor Shabalin, on behalf of Nick Giles, asked about the status of discussions with potential HPC tenants, the typical CapEx per megawatt, and whether Bitfarms expects to split development costs with tenants.

Answer

CEO Ben Gagnon stated that serious customer discussions will accelerate once the master site plan is complete. He outlined a range of development models, from powered land (hundreds of thousands/MW) to powered shell ($2-4M/MW) and full build-out ($8-10M/MW), identifying the powered shell as a likely 'sweet spot' for balancing ROIC and CapEx. The final model will depend on customer needs, with a focus on securing long-term contracted revenues.

Fedor Shabalin, on behalf of Nick Gilles from BofA Securities, questioned the reiterated full-year guidance following a negative Q1, asking for the expected cadence of improvement. He also inquired about end-market strength, particularly in Asia, and what would trigger an increase in the magnitude of share repurchases.

Answer

CEO Marco Levi explained that the negative Q1 result was expected and budgeted for, maintaining confidence in the full-year guidance of $100M-$170M adjusted EBITDA. He anticipates a significant recovery driven by the positive impact of regulatory trade measures in the U.S. and Europe, which are expected to rebalance markets. On shareholder returns, Levi and CFO Beatriz García-Cos Muntañola stated that buybacks will remain opportunistic, funded by free cash flow after operational needs and CapEx. They stressed the priority of maintaining a strong, net-cash-positive balance sheet and will not use leverage to accelerate repurchases.

Fedor Shabalin, on behalf of Nick Giles, inquired about the upcoming federal court hearing regarding the 404 permit and the tailings dam study. He also asked about the current drill program's role in converting resources to reserves and the potential for project revaluation given high gold prices and inflation.

Answer

Executive Greg Lang stated he is not overly concerned by the court ruling, describing it as narrow and not on the critical path, estimating the required study would take 6-8 months. Regarding the drill program, Lang explained it has two parts: fine-tuning mining parameters with tightly spaced drilling and upgrading inferred material in less-drilled areas to potentially increase reserves.

Fedor Shabalin of B. Riley Securities, asking on behalf of Lucas Pipes, inquired about the timeline for the final major permit, the Dam Safety Certification. He also asked if the updated feasibility study would reflect current high gold prices and questioned the company's expected cash burn rate and CapEx for 2025.

Answer

President and CEO Greg Lang confirmed the Dam Safety Certification is the last major permit required and is not on the critical path, with approval anticipated in 1 to 1.5 years. Lang noted that the current 'intriguing' gold price is a positive factor for the project and that guidance on 2025 activities will be provided by early next year. He also stated that the cash burn rate, around $30 million in 2024, is expected to increase slightly in 2025, but the company's treasury of over $100 million is sufficient to fund these activities.

Fedor Shabalin, on behalf of Nick Giles, requested a breakdown of the 2025 CapEx outlook, asking for allocation details across specific sites and whether the funds were for self-mining or HPC/AI. He also sought clarity on the infrastructure readiness timeline for the Clarington and Massillon sites.

Answer

Head of Capital Markets Jeff LaBerge explained the $340M-$370M CapEx guidance is for infrastructure assuming Bitcoin mining use and excludes the cost of SEALMINERs. It covers expansions in Rockdale, Bhutan, Massillon, Clarington, and the new Alberta facility. He confirmed that power infrastructure for both the Clarington and Massillon sites is expected to be available in 2025.

Fedor Shabalin, on behalf of Nick Giles at B. Riley Securities, requested a breakdown of the 2025 CapEx outlook and inquired about the specific infrastructure readiness timelines for the Clarington and Massillon, Ohio sites.

Answer

Jeff LaBerge, Head of Capital Markets, detailed that the $340M-$370M CapEx guidance covers infrastructure build-outs in Texas, Bhutan, Ohio, and Alberta, assuming development for Bitcoin mining. He specified that for the Ohio sites, the power infrastructure is expected to be available in 2025, with Massillon construction targeted for completion in H2 2025 and the Clarington substation construction beginning in 2025.