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    Francisco Riquel • Alantra

    Francisco Riquel's questions to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) leadership

    Francisco Riquel's questions to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Francisco Riquel of Alantra questioned the source of organic excess capital generation in the new plan, seeking clarity on the profitability of the €13 billion earmarked for growth and the return threshold for potential M&A investments.

    Answer

    CEO Onur Genç clarified the plan anticipates negative regulatory impacts but still projects about 40 bps of organic capital generation annually. He stated M&A returns are benchmarked against share buybacks and are focused on domestic deals with high synergies. Global Head of Finance Luisa Gómez Bravo added that the plan's net attributable profit CAGR is around 9%.

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    Francisco Riquel's questions to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Francisco Riquel of Alantra asked about the profitability of new lending in Spain, given the accelerated market share gains and growth in lower-margin segments like CIB. He also inquired about the drivers behind flat year-over-year costs in Spain and the updated guidance for the year.

    Answer

    CEO Onur Genç asserted that all new lending is profitable, governed by a strict, loan-by-loan return on capital framework, which is why the bank is not growing in less profitable areas like mortgages. Regarding costs in Spain, he explained that the flat performance included a small one-off VAT-related benefit; excluding this, cost growth was around 2%, which is in line with the bank's existing guidance.

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    Francisco Riquel's questions to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Francisco Riquel from Alantra questioned the profitability of new lending in Spain, given the accelerated market share gains and growth in lower-margin segments like CIB. He also asked for an explanation of the flat year-on-year costs in Spain and an update on the cost guidance for the year.

    Answer

    CEO Onur Genç asserted that all new lending is profitable, managed through a strict, loan-by-loan return on capital framework, which is why growth in areas like mortgages is subdued. He explained that the flat costs in Spain were influenced by a small one-off VAT-related item of about €16 million. Excluding this, the underlying cost growth was around 2%, in line with previous guidance.

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    Francisco Riquel's questions to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Francisco Riquel of Alantra asked about slowing demand deposit growth and the rising loan-to-deposit ratio in Mexico, and inquired about Spain's NII hedging strategy and the potential for a future "cliff effect."

    Answer

    Executive Maria Gomez Bravo stated that in Mexico, the deposit mix improved, and BBVA's competitive advantage in transactionality keeps deposit costs low. Executive Onur Genç added that the 104% loan-to-deposit ratio is manageable due to a large base of sticky, small-ticket deposits. Regarding Spain, Genç confirmed that on top of the ALCO portfolio, an average of EUR 15 billion in short-term mortgage hedges for 2025 protects the NII outlook.

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    Francisco Riquel's questions to Banco Santander SA (SAN) leadership

    Francisco Riquel's questions to Banco Santander SA (SAN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Francisco Riquel asked about the disappointing Q2 Net Interest Income (NII) in the UK and its impact on ROTE targets, as well as the drivers behind the top-up provisions and rising NPL ratio in Brazil.

    Answer

    CEO Héctor Grisi Checa explained the UK is a 'work in progress' with a transformation underway, and the TSB acquisition will help lift ROTE to 16% by 2028. CFO José García Cantera added that UK margins were impacted by mortgage repayment seasonality. For Brazil, the CEO stated the bank is conservatively strengthening its balance sheet amid a challenging macro environment by using a capital gain to increase provisions, while shifting the loan mix towards secured lending. He affirmed the cost of risk outlook remains stable.

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    Francisco Riquel's questions to Banco Santander SA (SAN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Francisco Riquel asked about the sustainability of the U.S. business's strong Q1 performance, questioning the drivers behind its falling cost of funding, rising loan yields, and decreasing cost of risk amid worsening economic forecasts.

    Answer

    Executive Hector Blas Grisi Checa attributed the strong performance partly to seasonality, noting the first half of the year is typically stronger in the U.S. He confirmed the 15% ROTE target for the region and pointed to EUR 3.5 billion in new deposits and strong fee growth from the CIB build-out. CFO José Antonio García Cantera clarified that the rise in loan yields was due to a mix shift away from lower-yield loans in commercial and CIB.

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    Francisco Riquel's questions to Banco Santander SA (SAN) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Francisco Riquel from Alantra Equities inquired about the outlook for Net Interest Income (NII) in Spain for 2024 and 2025, the performance of the Corporate Centre's NII, and the bank's capital position, including Basel IV impacts and the CET1 target in light of potential countercyclical buffers.

    Answer

    CEO Héctor Grisi confirmed strong NII trends in Spain, driven by client growth. CFO José García Cantera provided detailed guidance, expecting low single-digit NII growth in Spain for 2024, an improvement from previous expectations. On capital, Cantera maintained a low day-one impact estimate for Basel III (0-20 bps) and a fully loaded impact of 30-50 bps, expecting to remain above the 12% CET1 target. He also detailed the potential impact of a Spanish countercyclical buffer.

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    Francisco Riquel's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership

    Francisco Riquel's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Francisco Riquel of Alantra asked about the profitability of new business, noting the NII contribution from new volumes, and inquired about the potential IPO of BFA and CaixaBank's participation.

    Answer

    Javier Pano Riera (executive) explained that the front book yield for new production was just under 4%, in line with plans, though mortgage margins remain tight without considering cross-selling benefits. Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche (executive) confirmed that BPI intends to participate in the BFA IPO process initiated by the Angolan government, planning to sell a stake of around 15%, contingent on market conditions and attractive pricing.

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    Francisco Riquel's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Francisco Riquel from Alantra asked about the drivers for the increase in indexed deposits to 45%, the potential for higher time deposit demand to alter beta assumptions, and the rationale for reducing overlay provisions.

    Answer

    CEO Gonzalo Gortázar attributed the rise in indexed deposits to higher overall client liquidity, especially from corporates. CFO Javier Pano added that this trend does not derail their cost of deposit views. Regarding provisions, he explained the overlay reduction was driven by the technical runoff of the Bankia PPA and the absorption of the new definition of default impact, not by sector-specific concerns.

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    Francisco Riquel's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Francisco Riquel from Alantra Equities asked about the increase in indexed deposits to 45% of remunerated deposits and whether higher demand for time deposits could challenge deposit beta assumptions. He also inquired about the allocation of the EUR 273 million in released overlay provisions.

    Answer

    CEO Gonzalo Gortázar attributed the rise in indexed deposits to higher overall liquidity and cash balances among corporate clients. CFO Javier Pano clarified that the increase in time deposits does not change their views on deposit costs, as these products still carry a margin. He explained the overlay release was mainly due to the runoff of the Bankia PPA and absorbing minor impacts from the new definition of default, not due to concerns in any specific sector.

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    Francisco Riquel's questions to CaixaBank SA (CAIXY) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Francisco Riquel inquired about the key drivers behind the upgraded 2024 Net Interest Income (NII) guidance, NII sensitivity to lower rates, and the outlook for 2025. He also asked for an update on the timing of capital distributions and the bank's appetite for share buybacks at the current share price.

    Answer

    CEO Gonzalo Gortázar confirmed that the rising share price does not deter their buyback strategy and that capital distribution announcements for the current plan will not wait for the November Investor Day. CFO Javier Pano explained the NII guidance upgrade is due to better loan volumes, slower deposit cost migration, and higher rate assumptions. For 2025, he sees potential upside to the current market consensus for NII.

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