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    Frederick Wightman

    Director and Analyst at Wolfe Research, LLC

    Frederick Wightman is a Director and Analyst at Wolfe Research LLC, specializing in equity research across the consumer and retail sectors, with coverage focused on companies such as Hasbro Inc. He joined Wolfe Research in early 2020 after serving as a Senior Research Associate at Citigroup Global Markets and an Analyst at Needham & Co. LLC. Wightman holds a CFA designation, as well as BA and MS degrees from Wake Forest University and the University of Virginia, respectively. He has earned recognition for his insight and detailed company analysis within industry earnings calls and investor presentations.

    Frederick Wightman's questions to HASBRO (HAS) leadership

    Frederick Wightman's questions to HASBRO (HAS) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman sought clarification on the medium-term outlook, asking what specific factors would offset margin expansion as revenue accelerates. He also asked about the specific tariff assumptions included in the 2025 guidance.

    Answer

    CFO and COO Gina Goetter explained that the primary margin offset in outer years is the amortization of capitalized video game development costs, which will mainly impact the Wizards segment's margin percentage. She confirmed the 2025 guidance incorporates the announced tariffs on Chinese imports, which is the main exposure for Hasbro, with minimal impact from Mexico or Canada.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to LCI INDUSTRIES (LCII) leadership

    Frederick Wightman's questions to LCI INDUSTRIES (LCII) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman of Wolfe Research inquired about the anticipated impact of steel, aluminum, and China-related tariffs on LCI's 2025 outlook, including inventory levels and pricing pass-through mechanisms. He also asked about the expected trend for the single-axle RV mix and its effect on content per towable unit.

    Answer

    CEO Jason Lippert stated that the plan does not currently reflect tariffs but estimated a potential 50 basis point impact from China tariffs, which he believes can be mostly mitigated through pricing and supplier negotiations. He noted that 99% of chassis steel is domestic. CFO Lillian Etzkorn confirmed that established pass-through mechanisms exist for steel and aluminum. Regarding mix, Lippert anticipates the elevated single-axle trailer mix, which rose in 2024, will begin to normalize sometime in Q2 2025 as dealer inventories of that product have been addressed.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to LCI INDUSTRIES (LCII) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman asked for details on the 2025 wholesale shipment outlook, specifically regarding the mix of RV types and potential commodity headwinds. He also inquired about the company's import exposure to China and the potential impact of tariffs on cost of goods sold.

    Answer

    CEO Jason Lippert stated that the RV mix should normalize, with low-content single-axle trailers expected to decrease from their recent peak. He projected 2025 wholesale shipments to be in the 335,000 to 355,000 unit range. Regarding China, he noted that LCI has been actively de-risking its supply chain since 2020. VP of Finance and Treasurer Lillian Etzkorn added that commodity price pass-throughs are not expected to be a material factor in the upcoming year.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to HARLEY-DAVIDSON (HOG) leadership

    Frederick Wightman's questions to HARLEY-DAVIDSON (HOG) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman of Wolfe Research inquired about the current mix of new versus prior-year models in dealer inventory and asked if the 2025 outlook assumes a different level of dealer support compared to the incremental support provided in 2024.

    Answer

    CFO Jonathan Root stated that the quality of dealer inventory is much higher entering 2025, with a better mix of redesigned touring bikes. He explained that dealer support in 2025 will be more surgical and model-specific, rather than broad, family-wide support as seen in 2024. CEO Jochen Zeitz added that the strategic pricing of 2025 models also positively impacts this dynamic.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to HARLEY-DAVIDSON (HOG) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman of Wolfe Research inquired about the current mix of new versus prior-year models in dealer inventory and asked whether the 2025 outlook assumes a similar level of incremental dealer support as was provided in 2024.

    Answer

    Chief Financial Officer Jonathan Root explained that the 'quality of inventory' is significantly better entering 2025, with a healthier mix of desirable, redesigned Touring models. Consequently, dealer support will be more 'surgical' and targeted at specific models rather than the broad, family-wide support seen in 2024. Chief Executive Officer Jochen Zeitz added that strategic pricing for 2025 models also reduces the need for such support.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to HARLEY-DAVIDSON (HOG) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman from Wolfe Research asked about the current mix of new versus prior-year models in dealer inventory and whether the 2025 outlook assumes a different level of dealer support compared to the incremental support provided in 2024.

    Answer

    CFO Jonathan Root stated that the quality of dealer inventory is much better heading into 2025, with a strong mix of the new, well-received touring models. He explained that unlike the broad support applied in 2024, support in 2025 will be more surgical and targeted at specific models. CEO Jochen Zeitz added that the strategic pricing for 2025 models is another important factor that has been received positively.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to HARLEY-DAVIDSON (HOG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman of Wolfe Research asked for the key building blocks to achieve the reaffirmed 15% operating margin target and for clarification on what "dealer support" entails beyond shipment cuts.

    Answer

    CFO Jonathan Root detailed the path to the 15% OI margin target, highlighting benefits from aligning production with retail (leverage), achieving a real $400M in cost productivity, surgical pricing actions, and disciplined OpEx. CEO Jochen Zeitz added that dealer support includes significant co-marketing funds, achievable retail targets, and enhanced digital lead generation, not just inventory management.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to HARLEY-DAVIDSON (HOG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman of Wolfe Research, LLC requested details on the building blocks to achieve the 15% operating margin target by 2025 and asked for clarification on what 'dealer support' entails beyond shipment reductions.

    Answer

    CFO Jonathan Root outlined the path to the 15% margin, citing benefits from aligning production with sales (leverage), achieving the $400 million cost productivity goal, surgical pricing actions, and strong OpEx discipline. CEO Jochen Zeitz added that dealer support includes significant marketing investments, achievable retail targets, and initiatives to drive digital traffic and leads to the network.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to HARLEY-DAVIDSON (HOG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman of Wolfe Research, LLC asked for the key building blocks that would enable the company to achieve its reaffirmed 15% HDMC operating margin target by the end of 2025.

    Answer

    CFO Jonathan Root detailed the path to the 15% margin target, citing the positive impact of aligning production with retail to restore operating leverage, achieving the $400 million cost productivity goal, implementing surgical pricing actions, and maintaining strong OpEx discipline, as shown by the 11% reduction in Q3.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to MATTEL INC /DE/ (MAT) leadership

    Frederick Wightman's questions to MATTEL INC /DE/ (MAT) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman questioned the subtle shift in the 2025 toy industry outlook to 'comparable to slightly up' and asked about the strategy and potential for the newly announced 'Mattel Brick Shop'.

    Answer

    CEO Ynon Kreiz affirmed a positive long-term industry view, noting the 2024 market stabilized better than expected and that a normalized movie slate will provide buoyancy in 2025. He described the 'Mattel Brick Shop' as a new growth driver that leverages the company's design and supply chain strengths. Notably, it will be launched under the trusted Mattel parent brand rather than the Mega brand.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to MATTEL INC /DE/ (MAT) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman pointed out that the adjusted EPS guidance range was unchanged despite a significant reduction in the expected tax rate, while EBITDA guidance also remained the same, and asked for the offsetting factor.

    Answer

    CFO Anthony DiSilvestro acknowledged the question and clarified that while the tax rate favorability does move the EPS up within the guided range, the effect was not significant enough to warrant a change to the overall $1.35 to $1.45 range.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to OneWater Marine (ONEW) leadership

    Frederick Wightman's questions to OneWater Marine (ONEW) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Frederick Wightman of Wolfe Research inquired about the sales cadence during the quarter and the impact of exiting certain boat brands on front-end gross margins.

    Answer

    CEO Philip Singleton and President/COO Anthony Aisquith described October and November as strong months, with December being more typical. Regarding margins, Singleton explained that exiting brands are sold at or below cost, creating a drag on gross profit. He noted, however, that current model year margins are holding up well. CFO Jack Ezzell added that this margin pressure will likely persist into Q2 but should improve as they clear through the discontinued inventory.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to OneWater Marine (ONEW) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman asked for expectations on segment-level gross margins for fiscal 2025, particularly for new boats, and requested details on the total expected benefit from recent cost-saving actions.

    Answer

    CEO Austin Singleton expressed cautious optimism for a slight new boat margin improvement in 2025 as dated inventory clears, likely in the second half of the fiscal year. Executive Jack Ezzell added that Q4 margins were suppressed by restructuring charges and should normalize higher. Ezzell quantified the cost savings, stating a March action of $10 million is partially baked in, with another $5 million action from September expected to benefit fiscal 2025.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to BRUNSWICK (BC) leadership

    Frederick Wightman's questions to BRUNSWICK (BC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman questioned the below-consensus Q1 outlook, asking if the shape of the year had changed, and inquired about the rationale for the reduced share repurchase plan.

    Answer

    CEO David Foulkes confirmed the back-half loaded plan was consistent, citing the need to ramp from inefficient, low production levels in late 2024. CFO Ryan Gwillim explained the $80 million share repurchase figure is a baseline, established while carefully managing debt leverage during a period of trough earnings. He noted that if strong cash flow continues, the repurchase amount could increase.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to BRUNSWICK (BC) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman asked if the significant Mercury market share gain in the quarter was due to any one-time factors and inquired if Navico's expected Q4 improvement represents a major inflection point for the segment.

    Answer

    CEO David Foulkes stated there were no one-time factors in the Mercury share gain but advised focusing on the 130 basis point year-to-date gain as a more stable metric. CFO Ryan Gwillim characterized the Navico outlook as showing stability and potential for marginal Q4 sales and margin growth driven by new products, but not a 'huge inflection.'

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to Polaris (PII) leadership

    Frederick Wightman's questions to Polaris (PII) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman of Wolfe Research asked for clarification on the 2025 EPS guidance, which was lower than previously hinted, and inquired about the drivers of the strong free cash flow outlook despite lower earnings.

    Answer

    CEO Mike Speetzen explained that the final EPS guide was impacted by softer late Q4 retail, higher finished goods inventory requiring lower 2025 production, and a significant headwind from resetting employee incentive compensation. CFO Bob Mack added that the strong free cash flow guidance is driven by lower CapEx after a heavy investment cycle and a planned $150-$200 million reduction in finished goods inventory.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to Polaris (PII) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman asked for the key puts and takes when bridging 2024 EPS to 2025, seeking guidance on whether to model it up, down, or flat. He also questioned the strategic importance of the Marine business, given that other companies are divesting similar assets.

    Answer

    CEO Mike Speetzen suggested that 'flat is probably a good starting point' for 2025 EPS, reflecting a cautious outlook on retail. CFO Robert Mack listed tailwinds like operational efficiencies and lower interest rates, and headwinds like a challenged industry, bonus normalization, and commodity pressure. Regarding Marine, Speetzen and Mack affirmed their commitment, highlighting that the business has strong EBITDA margins, generates significant cash flow, and holds market-leading positions, making it a core part of the portfolio.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to MARINEMAX (HZO) leadership

    Frederick Wightman's questions to MARINEMAX (HZO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Frederick Wightman from Wolfe Research asked what factors were driving the company's 'cautious optimism' for its full-year outlook given headwinds like a choppy retail environment and high inventory. He also requested an update on the recovery timeline for the Florida market.

    Answer

    Executive Michael McLamb cited encouraging retail activity post-hurricanes in November, generally positive boat show traffic, and improved clarity in the geopolitical environment as reasons for optimism. Executive Bill McGill added that January was showing improvement after a tough December. On the Florida recovery, McGill noted that while disrupted stores are back to normal, the timeline is less certain for communities with significant storm damage, as customers need to get their lives and properties back in order.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to MARINEMAX (HZO) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman sought clarification on whether the promotional environment is expected to accelerate and further decrease new boat margins, and asked if recent cost cuts are fully offsetting inflation or driving SG&A leverage.

    Answer

    CEO Bill McGill and CFO Michael McLamb clarified that they expect the heavy promotional environment to continue, not necessarily accelerate, which could pressure margins in the near term. McLamb explained that cost-cutting initiatives are working to offset inflation, with the goal of moving SG&A as a percentage of sales from ~27% partway towards the fiscal 2023 level of ~26%, acknowledging it is a challenge.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES (WGO) leadership

    Frederick Wightman's questions to WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES (WGO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Frederick Wightman asked for context on the full-year guidance, which remains unchanged at the midpoint despite a weaker-than-expected first half, and questioned the margin drag from the Grand Design Motorized start-up.

    Answer

    CEO Michael Happe expressed confidence in the back half of the year due to emerging "green shoots." CFO Bryan Hughes quantified the Motorhome margin pressures, noting deleverage (~4.5 pts) and discounting (~3 pts) were the largest factors, while the Grand Design start-up was a smaller drag of less than 1 point, with expectations for it to be accretive by the end of fiscal 2025.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to WINNEBAGO INDUSTRIES (WGO) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman sought clarification on the comment about a 'gradual improvement in retail over the next 12 to 15 months,' asking if this applied to both RV and Marine and when different subcategories might see improvement.

    Answer

    President and CEO Michael Happe clarified the comment was a general projection that conditions would be better in 12-15 months. He reiterated that the company is planning for potential favorability beginning in the spring of calendar 2025 (fiscal Q3), driven by factors like easing inventory and a better post-election economic environment, but declined to provide a precise timeline for each subsegment.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to MALIBU BOATS (MBUU) leadership

    Frederick Wightman's questions to MALIBU BOATS (MBUU) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Frederick Wightman asked for clarification on the timing impact of hurricane-related shipment delays and questioned whether the former Tommy's markets were still underperforming from a market share perspective.

    Answer

    CFO Bruce Beckman described the shipment delays as having a minimal, modest impact, shifting some volume from Q2 into the second half of the year. CEO Steven Menneto explained that after being a drag, the former Tommy's markets are expected to provide a tailwind for a few months as liquidated inventory is sold.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to MALIBU BOATS (MBUU) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman of Wolfe Research requested an update on dealer inventory levels, questioned the driver behind the Q4 EBITDA margin being slightly below guidance, and asked about the potential speed of consumer response to future interest rate cuts.

    Answer

    An executive, likely CFO Bruce Beckman, reported that inventories, which were 4-5 weeks high, are now in line with historical trends, but dealers are expected to lower them further in FY25. The slight Q4 EBITDA miss was attributed to higher-than-expected promotional spending. CEO Steve Menneto commented that while rate cuts would be a long-term positive, the exact inflection point for consumer demand is difficult to predict.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to CARNIVAL (CCL) leadership

    Frederick Wightman's questions to CARNIVAL (CCL) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Frederick Wightman highlighted the acceleration in new-to-cruise guest growth from 10% last quarter to 17% this quarter, asking for the specific drivers behind this increase and its strategic implications for growing market share.

    Answer

    CEO Josh Weinstein attributed the acceleration to a combination of factors rather than a single initiative, including better advertising, strong trade partner performance, and improved website usability. He specifically called out the Alaska season as being "off the charts" and a significant contributor, as it tends to attract a higher percentage of new-to-cruise guests. He summarized the strategy as a continued focus on "doing the basics better."

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to BRP (DOOO) leadership

    Frederick Wightman's questions to BRP (DOOO) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Frederick Wightman asked for a more detailed breakdown of the downward revision to the year-round products guidance, seeking the magnitude of changes within its subcategories.

    Answer

    CFO Sebastien Martel explained that the year-round product revenue guidance was reduced by about $165 million at the midpoint. He specified that approximately 80% of this adjustment comes from the side-by-side category, reflecting market softness and a cautious shipment plan. The remainder is split between ATVs and 3-wheel vehicles. He reiterated a bullish long-term view on ORV.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to BRP (DOOO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Frederick Wightman of Wolfe Research asked where BRP's current promotional spending expectations stand relative to pre-COVID levels. He also inquired about the key catalysts, such as a retail pickup or interest rate cuts, that would make dealers comfortable with ordering inventory again.

    Answer

    CFO Sebastien Martel stated that on a percentage of revenue basis, the current forecast for powersports promotions is in line with pre-COVID levels, though the absolute cost is higher due to elevated interest rates impacting retail financing programs. He identified potential interest rate cuts as a key catalyst that would provide comfort to dealers by lowering their significant floor plan financing costs, which are currently about 500 basis points higher than pre-COVID.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to CARNIVAL (CUK) leadership

    Frederick Wightman's questions to CARNIVAL (CUK) leadership • Q2 2023

    Question

    Frederick Wightman of Wolfe Research asked if the 2026 financial targets included an assumption of returning to the China market. He also requested an update on the European cruise market's recovery relative to North America's.

    Answer

    CEO Josh Weinstein stated definitively that the 2026 targets do not assume a return to China, as former Costa ships have been successfully redeployed to the higher-yielding Carnival Cruise Line brand. He highlighted that the European recovery is accelerating, with Q2 bookings for European brands showing double-digit increases in both volume and price versus 2019, significantly closing the yield gap with North American brands.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to CARNIVAL (CUK) leadership • Q1 2023

    Question

    Frederick Wightman of Wolfe Research inquired about the European consumer, asking for details on the booking curve and demand trends, especially in relation to the Costa fleet returning to service sooner than expected. He also asked about the long-term newbuild pipeline and whether the plan for one to two ships annually post-2026 remains intact.

    Answer

    CEO Josh Weinstein described European demand as strong across all brands, noting that while close-in demand is high, the booking window is also lengthening, which signals a normalization of booking patterns. Regarding the newbuild pipeline, Weinstein confirmed the plan is for one to two ships per year but stated it is still uncertain whether that cadence will begin in 2027 or later, highlighting the company's current low order book.

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    Frederick Wightman's questions to CARNIVAL (CUK) leadership • Q4 2022

    Question

    Frederick Wightman of Wolfe Research asked for the reason behind the slower pace of sequential occupancy improvement expected in Q1 2023 compared to the previous quarter. He also inquired if the strong booking momentum from November had continued into December.

    Answer

    CEO Josh Weinstein explained that the Q1 deployment profile is heavily weighted towards long-lead-time itineraries like World Cruises, which naturally results in a more gradual occupancy ramp. CFO David Bernstein confirmed that the strong booking momentum from November, which exceeded 2019 levels, has continued into December.

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