Gabor Kemeny

Gabor Kemeny inquired about the competitive environment in Turkey and how competitors are reacting to Hepsiburada's accelerating volumes. He also asked for insights into the expected bottom line development given regulatory changes, taxation, and reserves, and the sustainable dividend payout ratio.

Answer

Mikhail Lomtadze, Chairman and CEO, Kaspi.kz, stated that Kaspi respectfully observes competition but focuses on product quality, consumer engagement, and increasing order frequency. David Ferguson, Head of Investor Relations, Kaspi.kz, indicated that the KZT 850 per share dividend for Q4 2025 is sustainable for the remainder of 2026, similar to the 2024 payout ratio. He noted that net income will be impacted by no assumed interest rate reductions, higher Kazakhstan bank taxes from January 2026, and increased National Bank reserve requirements.

Gabor Kemeny asked about the competitive environment in Türkiye for Hepsiburada, the expected bottom-line development given regulatory changes, taxation, and reserves, and the sustainable dividend payout going forward.

Answer

David Ferguson, Head of Investor Relations, stated that the KZT 850 per share dividend for Q4 2025 is sustainable for 2026, with a payout ratio similar to 2024. He clarified that net income guidance is not provided, but factors like no assumed interest rate reductions, higher Kazakhstan bank taxes (+200bps from Jan 2026), and increased National Bank reserve requirements will weigh on the 2026 bottom line. Mikhail Lomtadze, Chairman and CEO, emphasized that Kaspi.kz's focus in Türkiye is on high-quality products and services, increasing engaged customers, and order frequency, rather than direct competition.

Gabor Kemeny from Autonomous Research asked about the outlook for Fintech funding costs, the recent uptick in NPLs and asset quality, and the balance between investments in Turkey and capital returns to shareholders from 2026.

Answer

MD & Head of IR David Ferguson addressed the questions, stating that the Q2 increase in funding costs largely reflects the full impact of rate hikes and expects the full-year increase to be 70-100 bps. He clarified that underlying asset quality remains stable, with a Q1 macro provision affecting recent figures. Regarding capital, he confirmed the Turkey banking acquisition is a priority for 2025, with a balanced approach to investments and shareholder returns expected from 2026, noting a strong case for buybacks at current valuations.

Gabor Kemeny from Autonomous Research asked about the outlook for Fintech segment funding costs, the recent uptick in the NPL ratio and provisioning rates, and the potential scale of investments in Turkey beyond the banking license acquisition.

Answer

David Ferguson, MD & Head of IR, addressed the questions, stating that the increase in deposit funding costs is in line with expectations and the full impact is now reflected. He clarified that the Q1 cost of risk included additional macro provisioning, and underlying risk trends remain stable. Regarding capital, he noted the Turkish banking license is a significant investment for the current year. Looking ahead to 2026, while a final decision is pending, he acknowledged a strong case for share buybacks given the company's cash generation and current valuation.

Gabor Kemeny questioned the expected increase in funding costs from higher deposit rates, whether lending product pricing has been adjusted in response, and Kaspi's comfort level with Hepsiburada's lending experiments ahead of Kaspi's own fintech expansion in Turkey.

Answer

Executive David Ferguson stated that lending product pricing remains unchanged, with gross yield flat year-over-year. He projected a 100-150 basis point annualized increase in the cost of funding for the year. He also noted that Kaspi's strategy with a full banking license in Turkey allows for a different, larger-scale model of using deposits to fund lending and drive marketplace activity, distinct from Hepsiburada's current initiatives.

Gabor Kemeny questioned the 20% profit growth guidance, asking where margin improvements would originate given slowing volume growth and FinTech margin pressure. He also asked about currency hedging and if resuming dividends was contingent on a Hepsiburada minority buyout.

Answer

Executive David Ferguson clarified that there is no current proposal for a minority buyout and that the company has no material currency hedging. Regarding guidance, he explained that while the growth rate is moderating from 25% to 20%, it reflects a natural 'scale effect' for a business of Kaspi's size, and that volume growth remains very strong. He also stated that a decision on capital returns would be made in the second half of the year.

Gabor Kemeny of Autonomous Research inquired about the Hepsiburada acquisition, focusing on the value Kaspi can add, potential profitability improvements, the impact on dividend sustainability, and reassurances regarding KYC processes amid allegations against a former shareholder.

Answer

An executive, likely David Ferguson, affirmed full compliance with all sanctions and regulations, noting Kaspi's unique transactional visibility. CEO Mikheil Lomtadze addressed the acquisition, emphasizing the cultural fit and shared vision with Hepsiburada over making specific financial projections. He stated the deal would be funded by cash and earnings, and highlighted the flexibility provided by Kaspi's new investment-grade rating, suggesting debt markets could be explored without current plans.