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    Gabriel Dechaine • National Bank Financial

    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Sun Life Financial Inc (SLF) leadership

    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Sun Life Financial Inc (SLF) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine of National Bank Financial asked about the drivers of rising claims severity and frequency in the U.S. Dental business, the outlook for Q3 seasonality, and the company's pricing power and timeline with state authorities.

    Answer

    President - U.S. Dan Fishbein confirmed Q3 is a seasonally adverse quarter for dental claims. He attributed higher utilization to a claims backlog, a one-time reprocessing event, and evolving provider billing practices. He noted that while pricing power exists, the process to get rates to target levels has been slowed by Medicaid funding uncertainty and will likely take through 2026.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Sun Life Financial Inc (SLF) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine of National Bank Financial asked about the drivers of increased claim severity and frequency in U.S. Dental, the outlook considering Q3 seasonality, and the company's pricing power with state Medicaid authorities.

    Answer

    President - U.S. Dan Fishbein acknowledged that Q3 is seasonally the most adverse quarter for dental claims. He attributed the rising severity to provider billing practices, aided by AI, and some one-time claim reprocessing effects. He explained that while states are required to set actuarially sound rates, the process is annual and has been slowed by funding uncertainty, with a full return to target margins likely taking through 2026.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Sun Life Financial Inc (SLF) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine inquired about the employment assumptions in the group business profit models, the sustainability of Asia's high ROE, the impact of a slower monetization environment on SLC's outlook, and the drivers of strong institutional inflows at MFS.

    Answer

    Kevin Morrissey, SVP & Chief Actuary, explained that expected profits for group businesses are based on short-term pricing assumptions incorporating economic factors, which are reset annually. Manjit Singh, EVP & President of Sun Life Asia, stated there were no unusual items in Asia's Q1 results and the ROE represents a good run rate. Stephen Peacher, President of SLC Management, noted a slower monetization environment has a mixed impact on private credit, potentially extending loan durations but reducing new deal flow. An executive, likely Ted Maloney, President of MFS, attributed MFS's strong institutional inflows to its international equity franchise and positive fixed income flows.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Sun Life Financial Inc (SLF) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine followed up on U.S. stop-loss, asking about the timeline for repricing to be fully reflected and the potential for another claims blip in Q1 2025. He also questioned the nature of the "onetime" tax-exempt income volatility and the drivers of lower earnings on surplus.

    Answer

    Daniel Fishbein (executive) confirmed it would take through next January to fully reprice the book but that meaningful impact would be seen from the 1/1/25 actions. CEO Kevin Strain expressed long-term confidence in the business. CFO Timothy Deacon explained the tax volatility was due to unusual FX moves and that actions to mitigate it going forward would have a modest impact. He attributed lower surplus earnings to lower short-term yields.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Sun Life Financial Inc (SLF) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine sought clarification on the U.S. dental business's $100 million target for 2025, asking if it's a full-year figure and about its expected progression. He also asked for more detail on the U.S. stop-loss pricing strategy and contract duration, and questioned the normalization of morbidity experience in the Canadian business.

    Answer

    Daniel Fishbein, President of Sun Life U.S., confirmed the $100 million dental target is for the full year 2025, with recovery beginning in Q3 2024 and accelerating in Q4. On stop-loss, he reiterated that contracts are repriced annually, allowing for quick reactions to market changes. Jacques Goulet, President of Sun Life Canada, added that while Canadian morbidity experience is moderating from record highs, the positive results are sustainable due to disciplined pricing actions.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) leadership

    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine of National Bank Financial questioned the value of the Comvest acquisition compared to share buybacks and inquired about the potential sales impact from new regulatory caps on return illustrations in Hong Kong.

    Answer

    President & CEO Philip Witherington defended the acquisition as a strategic investment in a high-growth area, emphasizing long-term value over immediate accretion. Paul Lorentz, President and CEO of Global WAM, highlighted the growth of the private credit market. Steven Finch, CEO for Manulife Asia, stated that the new Hong Kong regulations are not expected to have a material impact on sales.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine of National Bank Financial asked if the sales mix in Asia is still weighted towards lower-margin savings products and questioned the significant increase in U.S. segment expenses.

    Answer

    Incoming CEO Philip Witherington and CEO Roy Gori clarified that while savings products are in high demand, they are still quite profitable, and they see potential to supplement this with new health and protection products. Brooks Tingle, Head of U.S. Business, described the Q1 U.S. expense increase as an "aberration" tied to strategic investments in GenAI and digital initiatives that are expected to yield future efficiencies.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine asked about the Asia segment's growth outlook for 2025, considering the absence of a 2023 actuarial tailwind and the potential full implementation of the Global Minimum Tax (GMT) across its Asian footprint.

    Answer

    Philip Witherington, incoming President and CEO, asserted that the majority of 2024's growth was from normal business activity and that Q4's 16% core earnings growth is a sustainable benchmark. CFO Colin Simpson added that the GMT impact is already being provided for and that approximately 80% of the charge originates from Asia, which will be allocated to the segment in 2025.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Manulife Financial Corp (MFC) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine of National Bank Financial asked if the significant retail outflows in the Canadian wealth business were linked to recent capital gains tax changes. He also questioned the wide 17% to 23% effective tax rate guidance and the factors that could cause swings.

    Answer

    Paul Lorentz, Head of Global Wealth and Asset Management, confirmed that the industry saw elevated redemptions ahead of the capital gains tax change, and a separate large-case redemption of $1.8 billion also skewed results. Regarding the tax rate, CFO Colin Simpson affirmed that geographic earnings mix is the primary driver, with higher growth in lower-tax jurisdictions like Asia pushing the rate down, and confirmed the company is operating near the low end of the range.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Royal Bank of Canada (RY) leadership

    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Royal Bank of Canada (RY) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine inquired about the increase in gross impaired loans (GILs), asking if Royal Bank is being more proactive in its classifications and seeking clarity on the portion of the increase attributed to administrative factors.

    Answer

    Chief Risk Officer Graeme Hepworth clarified that approximately 40% of the quarter-over-quarter increase in GILs was due to administrative issues from the HSBC integration, which have been resolved and are expected to reverse. He affirmed that RBC's impairment process is consistent, based on well-defined rules that include forward-looking views, not just payment status.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Royal Bank of Canada (RY) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine from National Bank Financial asked about the significant increase in gross impaired loans (GILs), questioning the level of discretion used in classifications and seeking clarification on the administrative factors mentioned.

    Answer

    Chief Risk Officer Graeme Hepworth explained that RBC's process for classifying impaired loans is consistent and includes forward-looking views. He clarified that approximately 40% of the quarterly GIL increase was due to administrative issues related to the HSBC integration, which have since been resolved and are expected to reverse in the next quarter.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Royal Bank of Canada (RY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine of National Bank Financial asked for the specific Stage 2 provision release tied to the large impaired loan and the potential increase in performing ACL if the bank's pessimistic scenario became its base case.

    Answer

    Chief Risk Officer Graeme Hepworth specified that approximately $110 million in Stage 2 allowances were released for the account. He explained that the bank's pessimistic scenarios are already weighted at 35% in their models. If the primary pessimistic scenario were shifted to a 100% weighting, the performing ACL would increase by about 30%, representing a high-end marker for potential impact.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Royal Bank of Canada (RY) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine asked a series of questions regarding the credit performance of the U.S. leveraged finance portfolio, whether legacy HSBC Canada balances have stabilized post-acquisition, and the outlook for loan growth at City National.

    Answer

    Derek Neldner, Group Head of Capital Markets, stated the U.S. leveraged finance portfolio is performing comfortably within expectations due to diversification and modest hold sizes. Neil McLaughlin, Group Head of Personal and Commercial Banking, confirmed that HSBC client and volume numbers are tracking well within original deal estimates. CEO David McKay noted that City National's loan growth has been muted by the high-rate environment but that the bank is focused on repositioning the portfolio for higher-return growth as conditions improve.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) leadership

    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine from National Bank Financial, Inc. asked for clarification on the full-year impaired loss rate guidance and a prognosis for 'peak PCLs,' wondering if elevated losses could persist into 2026. He also theorized whether the overall quality of the borrower cohort has improved post-pandemic.

    Answer

    Frank Guse, Senior EVP & Chief Risk Officer, reiterated the full-year guidance in the mid-30s basis points range and stated it was too early for a 2026 forecast. He agreed that the bank's strategic focus on mass affluent clients contributes to the portfolio's strong credit performance and high quality.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine sought clarity on the full-year impaired loss rate guidance and asked for a forecast on 'peak PCLs,' suggesting a potential lagged effect into 2026. He also theorized whether the current strong credit performance is due to a higher-quality borrower base post-pandemic.

    Answer

    Frank Guse, Chief Risk Officer, reiterated the full-year impaired loss guidance in the mid-30s basis points range, noting it's too early to forecast for 2026. He attributed the strong credit results not to a post-pandemic anomaly but to the bank's long-term strategy of focusing on deeper client relationships and the mass affluent segment, which naturally yields a higher-quality portfolio.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine of National Bank Financial asked for clarification on the full-year impaired loss rate guidance and the potential for peak PCLs. He also theorized whether better-than-expected credit performance was due to a higher-quality borrower cohort post-pandemic.

    Answer

    Chief Risk Officer Frank Guse reiterated the full-year impaired loss guidance in the mid-30s basis points range and noted it was too early to forecast for 2026. He attributed the strong credit performance to the bank's strategic focus on building relationships with mass affluent clients, which results in a higher-quality portfolio.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine from National Bank Financial sought clarification on the drivers of margin performance in both Canadian and U.S. banking, particularly the impact of deposit repricing, and also asked if the current pace of share buybacks would be maintained.

    Answer

    CFO Robert Sedran attributed the strong margin performance in both regions primarily to favorable deposit dynamics, including volume, mix, and hedging. He expects the Canadian margin to be stable to gradually higher, while the U.S. margin should normalize to the 350-360 bps range. Regarding capital, he reiterated the intent to complete the full authorized share buyback, environment permitting.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine asked for an explanation of a specific tax adjustment and questioned how the bank achieved positive operating leverage given high expense growth in several segments, suggesting a reliance on opportunistic treasury gains.

    Answer

    CFO Robert Sedran clarified the tax item was a reversal of a prior-quarter benefit related to newly enacted legislation. On expenses, he acknowledged certain one-time charges and noted that strong revenue growth, particularly performance-based, naturally drives higher variable compensation. He affirmed the bank actively manages expenses to achieve its operating leverage goals.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Bank of Montreal (BMO) leadership

    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Bank of Montreal (BMO) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine asked about BMO's U.S. ROE improvement strategy, questioning the outlook for commercial loan growth and the execution plan for acquiring lower-cost deposits.

    Answer

    CEO Darryl White acknowledged muted loan demand but highlighted PPPT growth from balance sheet optimization. Erminia Johannson, Head of North American Personal Business Banking, detailed the strategy of shifting the funding mix to core deposits while continuing customer acquisition. Nadim Hirji, Head of Commercial Banking, noted improving client sentiment and expects positive loan growth in the second half of the year, supported by a healthy pipeline and fee-generating initiatives.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Bank of Montreal (BMO) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine from National Bank Financial inquired about BMO's U.S. ROE improvement strategy, focusing on the outlook for commercial loan growth and the execution challenges of optimizing the deposit mix.

    Answer

    CEO Darryl White acknowledged the muted loan demand but highlighted the 8% quarterly PPPT growth in U.S. P&C, driven by balance sheet optimization. Ernie Johannson, Head of North American P&B Banking, detailed the strategy of shifting the funding mix to core deposits while growing checking accounts. Nadim Hirji, Group Head of Commercial Banking, noted that while pipelines are healthy, execution is delayed, but he expects positive loan growth in the second half of the year as sentiment improves.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Bank of Montreal (BMO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine sought clarification on the performing allowance for credit losses (ACL), asking how potential tariffs were factored in and what the magnitude of a future provision could be if tariffs are implemented.

    Answer

    CRO Piyush Agrawal explained that while the formal macroeconomic forecast did not include tariffs as of the January 31 quarter-end, the bank applied 'experienced credit judgment' as an overlay to reflect the heightened uncertainty. He stated it is too difficult to quantify a potential future PCL increase due to numerous variables like duration, scope, and government response, but confirmed the provision would directionally increase if broad-based tariffs are implemented.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Bank of Montreal (BMO) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine asked if the Bank of the West integration distracted from credit monitoring and sought clarification on the credit outlook, specifically if PCLs would be 'higher' than Q3 levels.

    Answer

    Chief Risk Officer Piyush Agrawal and Head of Commercial Banking Nadim Hirji denied any distraction from the integration, stating the acquired portfolio is performing as expected. Piyush clarified the outlook, stating PCLs are expected to be higher than Q3's level for the next 1-2 quarters before receding to the long-term average of around 36 basis points in 2025.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) leadership

    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine asked about Scotiabank's lending exposure to pre-construction condo developers amid reports of buyers backing out. He also questioned the mechanics behind the $9 billion quarter-over-quarter increase in Stage 2 residential secured loans, seeking to understand the classification criteria.

    Answer

    Chief Risk Officer Philip Thomas stated that condo developer exposure is small, representing only 6% of the Canadian commercial real estate portfolio, with a focus on experienced Tier 1 developers, making it a low concern. Regarding the Stage 2 loan increase, he clarified it was driven by model outputs on weaker forward-looking indicators (GDP, unemployment) and a broad-based expert credit judgment overlay, rather than deterioration in a specific geography or postal code.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine inquired about the bank's lending exposure to condo developers, particularly regarding pre-construction projects, and asked for the rationale behind the significant increase in Stage 2 classified residential mortgages.

    Answer

    Phil Thomas, Group Head & Chief Risk Officer, clarified that condo exposure is manageable, representing 20% of the mortgage portfolio and only 6% of Canadian commercial real estate, with a focus on top-tier developers. He explained the rise in Stage 2 mortgages was not due to specific regional stress but was a broad-based increase driven by weaker forward-looking economic indicators in their models and an overlay of expert credit judgment.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine asked about the underlying performance of the International Banking retail business and questioned if the bank's multi-year balance sheet optimization process is now largely complete.

    Answer

    Francisco Aristeguieta of International Banking noted that Q1 performance was strong and in line with expectations for a slower growth year. CEO L. Thomson highlighted the segment's improving productivity ratio. Regarding optimization, Mr. Thomson reiterated the 'value over volume' strategy, while CFO Rajagopal Viswanathan confirmed that most of the 'heavy lifting' is done and they are on the 'back end' of the process.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine asked for the outlook on the International Banking segment's loan loss ratio and questioned why it might not trend lower given portfolio mix changes and rate cuts.

    Answer

    Chief Risk Officer Philip Thomas stated that the International Banking PCL ratio is expected to remain around current levels in Q4. He noted encouraging early signs, such as flat gross impaired loans and net write-offs quarter-over-quarter. While deferring a full 2025 outlook, he acknowledged the strategic focus on acquiring high-quality primary customers, which could positively influence future credit performance.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) leadership

    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine from National Bank Financial inquired about TD's excess capital position, the potential for another large share buyback, the NII uplift from the bond portfolio repositioning, and the cause of higher Corporate segment NII.

    Answer

    CEO Raymond Chun confirmed the commitment to the $8B buyback and noted another could follow if excess capital remains after strategic investments. Leo Salom, President and CEO of TD Bank AMCB, stated the bond repositioning's NII benefit would be at the high end of the $300M-$500M range. CFO Kelvin Tran attributed the Corporate NII jump to investing proceeds from the Schwab share sale.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine questioned if the increase from mid-single-digit expense growth guidance to the current ~10% run-rate was solely due to risk control investments and asked if these costs would persist into 2025. He also sought clarity on what potential "nonmonetary penalties" could entail, such as a U.S. asset cap.

    Answer

    CFO Kelvin Vi Tran reiterated that the higher expense growth is driven by risk and control spending, strong markets-related business performance, and discrete items, plus the full-year impact of TD Cowen. He confirmed the AML program is multi-year and costs will persist. CEO Bharat Masrani declined to speculate on specific nonmonetary penalties while discussions are ongoing, stating the bank will provide full disclosure when a resolution is reached.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine from National Bank Financial asked about a positive hedge gain, the cost outlook for the AML program beyond 2024, and the pace of share buybacks.

    Answer

    CFO Kelvin Tran directed the question on hedge gains to broader trading disclosures. CEO Bharat Masrani indicated AML costs could extend into 2025 but stated efficiency initiatives are business-as-usual, not just to fund remediation. He also affirmed the intention to complete the current share buyback program, subject to market conditions.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Great-West Lifeco Inc (GWLIF) leadership

    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Great-West Lifeco Inc (GWLIF) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine from National Bank Financial asked for clarification on the flow of funds from retirement plan redemptions into the wealth business, specifically regarding the 30% increase in rollover sales and the associated dollar amounts.

    Answer

    Edmund Murphy, President and CEO of Empower, confirmed the 30% year-over-year increase in rollover sales, noting that gross sales in the wealth segment hit a record $6.6 billion for the quarter, primarily from rollovers. He also highlighted improved asset retention as a key factor. Group CFO Jon Nielsen added that while quarterly results may be volatile, the company expects positive net plan sales for the full year.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Great-West Lifeco Inc (GWLIF) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine sought clarification on the flow of funds from the Retirement business to the Wealth business, specifically asking about the 30% increase in rollover sales and the associated dollar volume.

    Answer

    Edmund Murphy, President and CEO of Empower, confirmed the 30% year-over-year increase in rollover sales, which contributed to a record $6.6 billion in gross sales for the Wealth segment for the quarter. He noted this reflects high efficacy in capturing money in motion. Group CFO Jon Nielsen added that while quarterly net plan growth will be volatile, the company expects positive net plan sales for the full year, supporting market share gains.

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    Gabriel Dechaine's questions to Great-West Lifeco Inc (GWLIF) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Gabriel Dechaine sought clarification on the flow of funds from retirement plan redemptions into the wealth business, specifically asking about the dollar amount of rollover sales and how the 30% increase compares to ultimate objectives.

    Answer

    Edmund Murphy, President and CEO of Empower, confirmed that rollover sales were up 30% year-over-year and that gross sales in the wealth segment hit a record $6.6 billion for the quarter, with the majority being rollovers. He also noted asset retention improved from 86% to nearly 90%. Jon Nielsen, Group CFO, added that while quarterly results can be volatile, the company expects net plan sales for the full year. President and CEO Paul Mahon emphasized this performance aligns with the company's strategic plan.

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