Geoffrey Dunn

Geoffrey Dunn inquired if the size of commercial deals impacts the appetite to upstream capital from the operating company and how First American balances balance sheet strength with returning excess capital. He also asked if margin improvement from tech investments would be gradual or a 'cliff' improvement, and about the expectation for the loss provision rate.

Answer

CEO Mark Seaton confirmed that large commercial deals do not prevent maximizing dividends, citing adequate ratings and a robust reinsurance program. He reiterated that margin improvement from tech investments would be gradual, not a sudden 'cliff' benefit, as legacy platforms are decommissioned and productivity improves. EVP and CFO Matt Wajner stated that while the policy loss rate for the year was 3.75%, with prior period reserve releases, the calendar rate was 3.0%. He noted that the normalized loss rate is closer to 4-5%, suggesting prior year releases might slow in the future, but no significant changes are expected soon.

Geoffrey Dunn asked about the impact of large commercial deals on capital upstreaming, the nature of margin improvement from technology investments, and the expectation for the loss provision rate.

Answer

Mark Seaton (CEO) stated that large commercial deals do not affect the ability to upstream capital or maximize dividends, citing adequate ratings and a robust reinsurance program. He clarified that margin improvement from Sequoia and Endpoint will be gradual, not a sudden 'cliff' benefit, with incremental gains over time. Matt Wajner (EVP and CFO) indicated that the 3.75% policy loss rate feels appropriate, with no current claims pressures, but expects prior year reserve releases to slow in the future.

Geoffrey Dunn questioned the demand for instantaneous title via Sequoia, the sustainability of efficiency gains amidst potential political pressure on title costs, and specific examples of AI usage, particularly within 'living title' initiatives.

Answer

CEO Mark Seaton asserted that demand for instant title exists, viewing Sequoia as a strategic move to transform a labor product into a data product, offering flexibility and innovation. He emphasized the industry's obligation for affordable title insurance and confirmed that both Endpoint and Sequoia are AI-native platforms, leveraging new LLM models. He also noted a top-down approach with ChatGPT Enterprise for all employees and confirmed AI is a significant part of 'living title' efforts, expecting gradual efficiency gains.

Geoffrey Dunn questioned the demand for instantaneous title with Sequoia, the sustainability of efficiency gains, and the business's evolution regarding title costs and waivers. He also asked for examples of AI usage, particularly in living title initiatives.

Answer

CEO Mark Seaton asserted demand for instant title, emphasizing Sequoia's role in transforming a labor product into a data product, offering strategic optionality. He reiterated the company's focus on title insurance, consumer protection, and affordability. He detailed that both Endpoint and Sequoia are now AI-native platforms, leveraging new AI models, and mentioned a company-wide rollout of ChatGPT Enterprise for employees, expecting gradual efficiency gains. He confirmed AI is a significant part of living title efforts.

Geoffrey Dunn asked for a detailed breakdown of the financial resources available for share buybacks, including cash flows, dividend capacity from subsidiaries, and debt obligations.

Answer

CFO Matt Wajner provided a detailed overview of the company's capital position. He noted approximately $100 million in cash at the holding company and about $160 million in excess capital at the FATICO subsidiary. He also highlighted FATICO's dividend capacity of $535 million and a comfortable debt-to-capital ratio of 23.5%, indicating significant flexibility and access to liquidity for capital return activities like buybacks.

Geoffrey Dunn asked about the strategic value of the Home Warranty platform to First American, particularly in light of the increased focus on a direct-to-consumer sales approach.

Answer

CEO Kenneth DeGiorgio characterized the DTC focus as an 'evolution' rather than a change, reaffirming the company's positive view of the business. He highlighted the significant opportunity in the underpenetrated market and noted that the company's deep real estate channel expertise will be a valuable asset for the Home Warranty business once the purchase market recovers.

Geoffrey Dunn inquired about Stewart's plans for its line of credit, specifically whether there's an aggressive paydown schedule or a gradual reduction through equity growth. He also asked about the impact of AI on Stewart's business and the broader industry, including potential M&A opportunities for data collection tools, and the accounting implications of municipal digitization on title plant assets.

Answer

CFO David Hisey stated that Stewart plans to let leverage from the line of credit come down gradually with equity growth, maintaining financial flexibility. CEO Fred Eppinger highlighted AI's significant benefits for efficiency, customer satisfaction, and quality in processing unstructured documents, with 75 ongoing initiatives. He views AI as a competitive advantage for larger players and sees potential for acquiring small, specialized AI tools. David Hisey clarified that municipal digitization does not pose recoverability issues for title plant assets, as their necessity varies by market, and Fred Eppinger added that centralized processing enhances their value.

Geoffrey Dunn asked about Stewart's strategy for its line of credit, specifically whether there's an aggressive paydown schedule or a plan for gradual leverage reduction through equity growth. He also questioned the impact of AI on the business, including M&A opportunities for data collection tools, and the implications of municipal digitization for title plant assets.

Answer

CFO David Hisey indicated a preference for gradual leverage reduction, maintaining flexibility with the current $200 million drawn on the line of credit. CEO Fred Eppinger highlighted AI's significant benefits for efficiency, customer satisfaction, and quality due to unstructured documents, with 75 ongoing initiatives. He views AI as a competitive advantage for larger players and sees small M&A opportunities for specialized "tool sets." Eppinger also noted that human intervention remains critical despite AI advancements. David Hisey clarified that municipal digitization does not pose recoverability issues for title plant assets, and Fred Eppinger added that centralized processing enhances the value of these plants.

Geoffrey Dunn asked for clarification on the expectation of low-teens margins in the Real Estate Solutions (RES) segment once client relationships mature, specifically inquiring if this margin target is tied to a critical revenue level. He also sought to understand the sensitivity of the Net Investment Income (NII) line to potential Fed rate cuts.

Answer

CEO Fred Eppinger stated that low-teens margins are considered the normal rate for the RES segment, following a temporary dip earlier in the year due to data contract rate increases that have since been integrated into client contracts. He added that in a more normalized housing market with 5 million existing home sales, margins could reach the mid-teens (14-15%) due to volume leverage. CFO David Hisey noted that the segment's adjusted pre-tax margin had bottomed at around 7% in Q4 of the prior year and has been steadily improving. Regarding Net Investment Income, Mr. Hisey explained that the company's negotiated rates mean there isn't a direct 25 basis point sensitivity to Fed rate cuts. He anticipates NII to be more consistent, possibly slightly down over the next year, depending on the interplay between rate cuts and growing balances from increased volume.

Geoffrey Dunn from Dowling & Partners asked for a breakdown of the domestic commercial business, the premium and margin differences between purchase and refinance deals, insights on the waived title insurance pilot program's pricing, and the segment mix and margins within the Real Estate Solutions (RES) business.

Answer

CEO Fred Eppinger explained that of the $74 million in domestic commercial revenue, approximately $19 million is from the 'small commercial' segment. He detailed that a purchase deal premium is around $3,000 versus $1,000-$1,400 for a refinance, noting refi is currently a small part of Stewart's business. Regarding the RES segment, Eppinger identified data/credit and appraisal as the largest components and expects margins to normalize in the low-teens range for the year. He also commented that while not participating, he views the evolution of the title pilot program to include a policy option as a positive development.

Geoffrey Dunn questioned the addition of Westchester Medical to the company's below-investment-grade (BIG) list, asking what specific factors changed between the first and second quarters to trigger the downgrade.

Answer

CFO Benjamin Rosenblum explained the downgrade was a forward-looking measure based on the surveillance team's assessment of the facility's liquidity and potential headwinds from changes to Medicaid and Medicare. President and CEO Dominic Frederico added that while it is a critical facility, the company's process requires proactive credit management based on future cash flow pressures. Both executives expressed a positive view on the potential for a successful turnaround and noted their strong history of working out healthcare credits without losses.

Geoffrey Dunn of Dowling & Partners requested details on the company's U.K. water utility exposures, including the nature of the utilities, their revenue sources, and existing protections against loss. He also asked about the cause of their reported cash shortfalls.

Answer

President and CEO Dominic Frederico explained the exposures are to essential, monopoly services and that Assured Guaranty's position is senior debt at the operating company level, with no principal due until 2037, leading to an expectation of insignificant, if any, losses. CFO Benjamin Rosenblum clarified the cash shortfall is a CapEx issue, stemming from past underinvestment by equity owners, which now requires new capital for infrastructure improvements.

Geoffrey Dunn of Dowling & Partners asked for the remaining dividend capacity from regulated and non-regulated entities for the second half of the year and questioned if the commercial fee per file would decline with a pickup in refinances.

Answer

CFO Tony Park estimated approximately $250 million in available dividends from regulated companies and $60 million from F&G for the second half, supplemented by a couple hundred million from non-regulated subsidiaries. CEO Mike Nolan stated he does not expect a deceleration in the commercial fee per file, suggesting it should remain consistent around the $11,300 level, as the strong mix of higher-fee national orders should provide support.

Geoffrey Dunn from Dowling & Partners asked for details on the remaining dividend capacity from regulated and non-regulated entities for the second half of the year. He also questioned if the pickup in commercial refinance activity would lead to a lower fee per file.

Answer

CFO Tony Park estimated about $250 million in available dividends from regulated companies and $60 million from F&G in the second half, plus potentially a couple hundred million from other non-regulated subs. CEO Mike Nolan addressed the commercial fee question, stating he does not expect a deceleration, as the fee per file is consistent. He suggested modeling with the Q2 average of around $11,300, noting the strong mix of higher-fee national orders could support this level.

Geoffrey Dunn of Dowling & Partners asked for clarification on the holding company's cash flow dynamics and whether the capacity for share repurchases is now limited after the recent investment in F&G.

Answer

CFO Tony Park detailed the holding company's cash flow, projecting $900 million to $1 billion in upstream cash from subsidiaries for the year. After covering the common dividend, interest expense, and the $150 million F&G investment, he stated that the company expects to maintain or grow its current holding company cash balance of approximately $700 million. This suggests that ample capacity remains for share repurchases, although the board has not yet determined the full extent of activity for the year.

Geoffrey Dunn asked where FNF has focused its investments and efficiency gains within the title business over the last few years and where the focus will be for the next three years, including the potential margin opportunity.

Answer

CEO Mike Nolan detailed past investments focused on the front-end, including moving to the cloud in 2019, standardizing on the SoftPro operating platform, and integrating title production. He stated the future focus will shift to the back-end closing process, enhancing the customer and employee experience through digital tools and AI. While he expects upside, he was reluctant to quantify the future margin opportunity, noting more work is needed to develop a number.

Geoffrey Dunn of Dowling & Partners asked for guidance on future dividend flows from the underwriting companies to the holding company, particularly how the increased ceding to Bermuda might alter the cadence of dividends from Essent Guaranty versus Essent Re.

Answer

CFO David Weinstock clarified that they will continue to assess dividends from both entities based on capital positions and holding company needs, rather than making a direct trade-off. Chairman and CEO Mark Casale added that the goal is to maximize dividends from both sources, with the increased reinsurance to Bermuda making cash transfers to the parent company more 'frictionless.' Weinstock confirmed that, assuming a benign credit environment, it is reasonable to expect Essent will aim to take the remaining $405 million in ordinary dividends from Essent Guaranty during 2025.

Geoffrey Dunn of Dowling & Partners sought confirmation and explanation for the 15.5% tax rate guidance for 2025, asked if any hurricane defaults were booked in Q3, and requested a repeat of the recent share repurchase figures.

Answer

CFO David Weinstock confirmed the 15.5% estimated tax rate for 2025. He explained that Essent is exempt from the new Bermuda income tax until 2030 due to its limited international presence. He also clarified that all hurricane-related defaults were considered Q4 events and reiterated that Essent repurchased $66 million of shares in Q4 and $52 million in January 2025.

Geoffrey Dunn sought to confirm the mechanics of the 7.3% claim assumption and asked about the specific levers being pulled to achieve the 2025 expense reduction, including the current state of technology spending.

Answer

CFO Nathaniel Colson confirmed that the 7.3% blended claim rate was calculated by applying a lower rate to hurricane-related notices and the standard 7.5% to others. He and CEO Timothy Mattke explained that expense savings come from broad efforts, including reduced headcount and outside services, with past technology investments now yielding efficiencies and allowing for a lower run rate.

Geoffrey Dunn asked for the profit commission threshold on the new quota share reinsurance (QSR) deal and questioned the strategy of securing a 40% share upfront, a change from the company's previous, more incremental approach.

Answer

CFO Nathan Colson provided the profit commission thresholds (62% and 63%) and explained the shift in strategy was a reaction to a very attractive reinsurance market. He cited strong capacity and favorable pricing as key reasons for locking in a larger, multi-year commitment, which aligns with the company's preference for longer-term risk management and capital certainty.

Geoffrey Dunn asked for the profit commission threshold on the new reinsurance treaties and inquired about the reason for the sequential decline in the average provision for new default notices.

Answer

CFO Aurora Swithenbank detailed the profit commission thresholds: up to 62% for the 2025 and 2026 quota share treaties and 61% for the 2027 treaty. President and CEO Adam Pollitzer noted these were among the best terms ever achieved. Regarding provisions, Pollitzer explained the average reserve per notice was stable at $24,000 versus $25,000, with no fundamental shift in reserving assumptions, and reiterated that the company anchors its reserving to a downside forecast.