Giuliano Anderes-Bologna

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna asked about the key drivers behind FTAI Aviation's module production exceeding original targets in 2025. He also inquired if year-end sales shifting from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 had any specific impact on the fourth-quarter results.

Answer

Stacy Kuperus, COO, FTAI Aviation, attributed the 68% increase in Q4 2025 module production to disciplined execution focused on people (Montreal Training Academy), parts (repair capabilities, OEM agreement), and process (Palantir AI optimization). Joseph Adams, Chairman and CEO, FTAI Aviation, confirmed a slight impact on aerospace products EBITDA due to a lag between costs and productivity from new hires, and customer requests to defer engine deliveries from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna asked about the Aerospace Products revenue from the Strategic Capital Initiative (SCI), questioning the rationale and whether it cannibalizes third-party business or represents additive growth.

Answer

CEO Joseph Adams explained that prioritizing the SCI creates a 'virtuous circle' where a stronger SCI leads to more committed engine exchanges for FTAI, improving visibility and future margins. He stated that while about 30% of Q1 activity went to SCI, the full-year expectation is closer to 20%. Adams confirmed this is additive growth with no cannibalization, as the core business is also growing materially and is primarily constrained by production capacity.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna asked about the macro industry trend of legacy operators selling mid-life assets. He inquired how this creates opportunities for FTAI's MRE and SCI platforms and whether the SCI allows FTAI to intercept these assets to become both the lessor and maintenance provider.

Answer

CEO Joe Adams confirmed this is a key dynamic, creating a ~25% growth opportunity as aircraft move to smaller operators who require FTAI's services. He noted the addressable maintenance market will remain large at $22 billion annually through 2030. COO David Moreno added that the SCI is designed to accelerate this strategy, allowing FTAI to acquire these assets and offer a fully integrated solution of ownership, leasing, and maintenance. Adams emphasized that from the airline's perspective, they deal with a single, stronger partner in FTAI.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna of Compass Point inquired about the primary sources of growth for the Aerospace Products segment, specifically the distribution between new customer acquisition and increased volume from existing customers.

Answer

CEO Joe Adams emphasized that growth is primarily organic, driven by the massive addressable market for CFM56 and V2500 engines, where FTAI still has less than 5% market share. He pointed to the tripling of productivity at the FTAI Canada facility as a prime example of how the company is capitalizing on its internal organic growth opportunities rather than focusing on external acquisitions.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna of Compass Point asked if the GMV outlook implied any pull-forward of demand and inquired about the expected mix of on- versus off-balance sheet loan sales.

Answer

CFO Robert O'Hare clarified that the guidance does not imply an acceleration from the current quarter's growth rate and that they expect moderation from the elevated growth seen in April. CEO Max Levchin noted a recent ABS deal will cause a modest uptick in off-balance sheet funding but did not provide specific mix guidance.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna asked if the GMV outlook implies continued acceleration and whether the percentage of loans sold would remain at the high end of its historical range.

Answer

CFO Robert O'Hare clarified the guidance does not imply acceleration from the current quarter's 36% growth, as the high end of the range is 34%. He noted that while April growth was strong, they expect moderation. Regarding funding, he explained that a recent non-consolidated ABS deal will cause a modest uptick in off-balance sheet funding but did not provide specific guidance on the overall mix.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna asked if the pressure on take rates was purely from the mix shift to prime or if subprime take rates had also changed. He also questioned why marketing costs as a percentage of originations hadn't fallen with the move toward prime.

Answer

CFO Sanjay Datta clarified that take rates in the core near-prime segment are largely stable and the change is mix-driven. He explained that acquisition costs for prime borrowers are not yet lower because the marketing programs for that segment are still nascent, but emphasized the additional volume is dollar-accretive to the bottom line.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna from Compass Point inquired about the growth outlook for co-invested capital, any potential caps on this exposure, and the movement in take rates during the quarter, especially for prime loans.

Answer

CFO Sanjay Datta reiterated that co-investment is targeted in the mid-to-high single-digit percentage of committed loan flow, with the total dollar amount scaling with the platform. He stated that take rates were in a similar ballpark to prior quarters, with a marginal decrease due to product mix shifts toward T-Prime and ongoing pricing experimentation.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna inquired about the business impact of the DOJ's antitrust ruling against Google, Gannett's adaptation of its affiliate revenue business following Google's manual actions, the potential size of Gannett's own legal claim against Google, confidence in the 2025 guidance amid macro uncertainty, and the drivers for expected growth in the Digital Marketing Solutions (DMS) and overall digital revenue segments.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Michael Reed stated the DOJ's win against Google should create a fairer ad marketplace, benefiting publishers like Gannett, and also strengthens their own lawsuit. He noted that while Google's manual actions impacted affiliate revenue, the company is adapting by leveraging its own content and diversifying with AI licensing and syndication deals. Regarding the DMS business, Mr. Reed expects a marked improvement in Q2, driven by better budget retention and product enhancements. CFO Trisha Gosser reaffirmed the 2025 guidance, explaining that Q1's digital performance was an outlier due to non-recurring items and that improving fundamentals, operational efficiencies, and new revenue streams support their confidence in a stronger second half.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna inquired about the key drivers for the 2025 digital growth outlook, the expected proceeds from Q1 asset sales, the capital structure strategy, and the status of the company's lawsuit against Google.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Michael Reed explained that the 7-10% digital growth will be driven by both digital advertising and a second-half acceleration in the Digital Marketing Solutions (DMS) business. He projected $50-$60 million in Q1 asset sale proceeds, which will be used for debt paydown. Reed noted that once first lien net leverage approaches 2x, the company may pursue a more traditional refinancing. He also affirmed that Gannett's antitrust case against Google is proceeding as planned and that they feel confident in their position.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna asked about the business impact of surpassing 200 million monthly unique visitors, the financial contribution of recently divested businesses, the pipeline for future asset sales, specific sector trends affecting the DMS segment, the company's outlook on achieving 2025 revenue growth, and the status of the antitrust lawsuit against Google.

Answer

CEO Michael Reed explained that audience scale and engagement are leading indicators for enhanced monetization and future revenue. CFO Douglas E. Horne detailed that divested businesses represented about $65 million in annualized revenue with minimal EBITDA impact and that the asset sale pipeline remains active. Reed attributed DMS softness to the home services vertical but expressed optimism due to recent rate cuts and internal initiatives. He also reaffirmed confidence in 2025 revenue growth, driven by digital monetization. Horne provided an update on the DOJ's case against Google, expressing confidence in the arguments presented.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna asked about the rapid increase in Q2 origination guidance relative to the Q4 target, the pace of marketing spend ramp-up, and the level of continued interest from bank partners.

Answer

CEO Scott Sanborn confirmed the strong growth trajectory, attributing it to successful marketing initiatives and product innovation, which position the company well to achieve its Q4 targets. CFO Andrew LaBenne explained that marketing spend is currently in a less efficient learning phase, with optimization expected by Q3 or Q4. LaBenne also noted that existing bank partners remain active and new banks are in the pipeline for future purchases.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna asked about the expected impact of seasonality on the origination ramp to the $2.3 billion Q4 target, the funding capacity to handle incremental volume, and the outlook for marketing expenses as a percentage of volume.

Answer

CEO Scott Sanborn explained the typical seasonal pattern involves growth in Q2 and Q3, followed by efforts to hold volume relatively flat in Q4 and Q1. He confirmed that marketplace demand currently exceeds production, so funding capacity is not a concern. CFO Andrew LaBenne noted that as the company expands into less efficient marketing channels to drive growth, the marketing expense rate will increase, but shifting volume to HFS also allows for upfront recognition of origination fees, creating a net positive P&L impact.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna sought clarification on the $1 billion bank purchase commitment, the pipeline for other bank buyers, and the mechanics of these sales. He also asked about loan pricing versus deposit cost trends and the deposit mix in the new LevelUp Savings program.

Answer

CFO Drew LaBenne confirmed the $1 billion in future loan purchases is incremental to recent sales and will be treated as marketplace whole loan sales. He also highlighted positive trends for deposit costs in Q4, including maturing high-rate CDs and the exit of a high-cost commercial customer. CEO Scott Sanborn noted it was early but initial data shows roughly 70% of LevelUp Savings users are engaging in the positive savings behavior required for the higher rate.

Asked about potential trigger events for a major capital action, the company's current hedging strategy, and the market opportunity for large subservicing mandates.

Answer

The company is proactively working on a capital action for 2025, driven by frustration with its stock valuation, with FRE growth being a key factor. The current hedging position is neutral on duration risk ('at home') but positioned for a steepening yield curve. The pipeline for new subservicing mandates is active, with opportunities arising from industry consolidation like the Mr. Cooper deal.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna of Compass Point questioned the strategy for growing the REIT, specifically asking if assets would be pushed into Rithm Property Trust. He also inquired about M&A opportunities for the mortgage company and the potential timing of a C-corp conversion.

Answer

Michael Nierenberg, Chairman, CEO, and President, clarified that they prefer not to transfer assets between REITs but will have both entities co-invest in deals. He affirmed they look at all accretive M&A opportunities, including for the mortgage company and MSRs, and noted growing demand for MSR funds. On the C-corp conversion, he suggested it could be pursued in the near term, possibly concurrently with other strategic moves, if it is highly accretive for shareholders.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna of Compass Point Research & Trading, LLC asked about the strategy for growing the REIT, specifically if assets would be moved into Rithm Property Trust. He also inquired about M&A opportunities in the mortgage space and the potential timing of a C-corp conversion.

Answer

Michael Nierenberg, Chairman, CEO, and President, clarified that Rithm prefers not to transfer assets between its REITs but would have them co-invest in deals. He confirmed the M&A team actively evaluates all accretive opportunities, including mortgage companies and MSRs. Regarding the C-corp conversion, he indicated it could be pursued concurrently with other strategic moves, stating that "anything is on the table."

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna asked for details on new deals at the Jefferson terminal, the timing for Long Ridge's projected $160 million EBITDA to appear in consolidated results, the potential impact of U.S. Steel's ownership changes on Transtar, and the estimated savings from a planned holding company refinancing.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Nicholson explained that Jefferson is pursuing deals for crude oil, NGLs, and renewables like ammonia. He clarified that Long Ridge's full $160 million EBITDA run-rate will be reflected starting in Q3 2025. Regarding Transtar, Nicholson stated that no potential U.S. Steel ownership outcome is viewed as negative. He also expressed high confidence that refinancing the company's 10.5% bonds and 14% preferred stock would be a highly accretive transaction.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna inquired about the specifics of the Long Ridge refinancing, including the potential accretion and pricing for new power contracts, and also asked about the likely refinancing rate for the holding company's debt.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Nicholson explained that the Long Ridge refinancing is highly accretive. By resetting power sale hedges from ~$28/MWh to the current market rate of ~$42/MWh, it could generate approximately $50 million in incremental annual EBITDA. He also noted that the holdco's 10.5% notes could likely be refinanced with a coupon in the 7% range, particularly after the credit-enhancing Repauno and Long Ridge transactions are completed.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna of Compass Point noted that at an 18% ROTCE, the company would be deleveraging without significant MSR book growth and asked if a low-to-mid double-digit UPB growth rate is a reasonable expectation. He also asked if DTC originations can grow regardless of rates due to the larger portfolio and what magnitude of a rate drop would be needed to cause a significant acceleration in DTC volumes.

Answer

CFO Kurt Johnson agreed that low double-digit growth is a reasonable plan but emphasized they will not chase yield and will remain opportunistic, with share repurchases and deleveraging also being key uses of capital. President Mike Weinbach confirmed that the growing portfolio provides a 'wind at our back' for DTC growth, driven by home equity opportunities and tech investments. He did not specify a basis point threshold for a refi wave but reiterated the company is ready to capture opportunities when rates drop.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna of Compass Point praised the strong performance and asked about the potential for continued operating leverage in the servicing segment. He also inquired about the earnings impact of shifting origination volume between second liens and cash-out or rate-term refinances. Finally, he sought confirmation on whether the Flagstar acquisition's impact was included in guidance and its expected closing timing.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Jay Bray and President Mike Weinbach confirmed there is significant continued opportunity for operating leverage, describing it as being in the 'early innings' of a continuous strategy. They highlighted investments in AI like AgentIQ, which can save minutes per call and drive substantial cost savings. On originations, Bray noted the team is adept at pivoting marketing based on the rate environment to drive desired volumes across different products. CFO Kurt Johnson confirmed that the Q4 guidance does include the impact of the Flagstar acquisition and that they anticipate it will close earlier rather than later in the quarter.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna of Compass Point inquired if Sallie Mae's current product suite has sufficient overlap to capture potential PLUS loan volume and whether the company would differentiate its strategy between the Parent PLUS and Grad PLUS markets.

Answer

CEO Jon Witter affirmed that the company has the necessary products or could quickly adapt them to serve both the Grad and Parent PLUS markets. He stated that the company has done the operational and financial readiness planning and would likely manage any outsized volume from either source through its established balance sheet growth and loan sale framework.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna of Compass Point asked about the amount of accumulated income in the alternative investments subsidiary and its potential to be dividended up to increase buyback capacity. He also inquired about the premium and return profile of international transactions and the potential for loss mitigation on the Thames Water exposure.

Answer

CFO Benjamin Rosenblum acknowledged they explore all options to move capital but noted obligations to Sound Point complicate the process. COO Robert Bailenson described the international business as having better returns and shorter tenors than domestic business. President and CEO Dominic Frederico affirmed the company's proven expertise in loss mitigation and expressed confidence in their strong, senior position regarding the Thames exposure.

Giuliano Anderes-Bologna of Compass Point asked about the expected trend for prepayment speeds in Q4, the potential for a timing mismatch with lock volume, and whether the servicing portfolio replenishment rate would remain positive. He also inquired about excess cash on warehouse lines and the strategic focus between M&A and organic growth.

Answer

CFO Amber Kramer acknowledged a potential short-term timing mismatch but emphasized the company's long-term view where production consistently replenishes servicing runoff. CEO Terry Schmidt stated that organic growth is the near-term focus, but M&A could become more active if high rates are prolonged. Amber Kramer added that Guild has significant liquidity, with $295 million in excess MSR line capacity and low leverage, positioning it to capitalize on any opportunities.