Question · Q4 2025
Greg Gibbes with Northland Capital Markets questioned the conservatism of GEO Group's 2026 guidance, noting that the midpoint is below the Q4 EBITDA run rate despite expected uplifts from ISAP cost savings, Adelanto normalization, mix shift, and new Florida contracts. He also asked for more details on GEO's participation in potential warehouse managed-only opportunities for ICE.
Answer
CEO Mark Suchinski clarified that the guidance is prudent, factoring in ongoing startup expenses for West Coast facilities and the delayed contribution from the Skip Tracing contract in Q1, but anticipates normalization and margin expansion in the second half of 2026. Executive Chairman George Zoley stated that GEO is assessing warehouse opportunities through a relationship with a prime contractor, focusing on sites in Sun Belt/red states, and carefully evaluating financial and operational commitments.
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