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Greg Gibbes

Vice President and Senior Research Analyst at Northland Capital Markets

Greg Gibas is a Vice President and Senior Research Analyst at Northland Securities, specializing in Enterprise Software/SaaS, Communications Technology, Connectivity and Satellite Services, Media & Internet, Real Estate, and Industrial sectors. He covers companies such as DraftKings and GEO Group, with a strong performance track record including rankings of #20 in TipRanks’ 2020 Top 100 Wall Street Analysts, #5 in 2020 for success rate and average return per rating, an overall TipRanks ranking of 784 with 91% Buy ratings and +14.40% average return, alongside more recent metrics showing 44.4% success rate and 13.6% average return over the past year. Gibas joined Northland in 2015 after prior experience as a Financial and Economic Analyst, having begun his career following a B.S. in Finance from the University of Minnesota, Carlson School of Management. He holds the CFA charter and maintains FINRA SIE, Series 7, Series 63, and Series 86/87 registrations.

Greg Gibbes's questions to GEO GROUP (GEO) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Greg Gibbes with Northland Capital Markets questioned the conservatism of GEO Group's 2026 guidance, noting that the midpoint is below the Q4 EBITDA run rate despite expected uplifts from ISAP cost savings, Adelanto normalization, mix shift, and new Florida contracts. He also asked for more details on GEO's participation in potential warehouse managed-only opportunities for ICE.

Answer

CEO Mark Suchinski clarified that the guidance is prudent, factoring in ongoing startup expenses for West Coast facilities and the delayed contribution from the Skip Tracing contract in Q1, but anticipates normalization and margin expansion in the second half of 2026. Executive Chairman George Zoley stated that GEO is assessing warehouse opportunities through a relationship with a prime contractor, focusing on sites in Sun Belt/red states, and carefully evaluating financial and operational commitments.

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