Guilherme Mendes

Guilherme Mendes asked for the assumptions used for FX and jet fuel prices in the 2026 guidance. He also followed up on Ricardo's point about not needing extra planes to grow, asking how much growth is possible and for how long without additional aircraft, given existing idle capacity.

Answer

CFO Ricardo Sánchez Baker stated that the guidance assumes an average FX rate of around 18.3 pesos per dollar and a jet fuel rate of approximately $69 per barrel, with a crack spread of about $25 per barrel. CEO Andrés Conesa added that Aeroméxico expects to receive 3 MAXes and a couple of 787s in 2026, ending the year with roughly 170 planes. This fleet allows for continued growth in the neighborhood of 5% for the next couple of years beyond 2026, accumulating 15%-20% growth over three years (2026-2028) before needing additional capacity.

Guilherme Mendes inquired about the specific FX and jet fuel price assumptions embedded in Aeroméxico's 2026 guidance. He also asked about the company's capacity growth potential without acquiring additional aircraft, leveraging existing idle capacity.

Answer

CFO Ricardo Sánchez Baker stated that the guidance assumes an average FX rate of approximately 18.3 pesos per dollar and a jet fuel rate of around $69 per barrel with a $25 crack spread. CEO Andrés Conesa and Ricardo Sánchez Baker explained that with planned aircraft additions in 2026, the existing fleet can support an accumulated capacity growth of 15%-20% over the next three years (2026-2028) by increasing utilization, without needing substantial new aircraft beyond those already scheduled.

Guilherme Mendes followed up to inquire about the current status of Copa's share buyback program, including how much has been executed so far and the remaining amount.

Answer

CEO Pedro Heilbron stated that approximately half of the $200 million board-approved buyback program has been executed, with the remaining half open without an end date. He added that a new program is typically requested once the current one is finalized.

Guilherme Mendes asked for more details on the assumptions behind Copa's flattish RASM guidance, especially considering increased capacity and appreciated local currencies.

Answer

CEO Pedro Heilbron explained that the guidance reflects confidence in the demand outlook. Key factors include 50% of the 2026 ASM growth being the full-year effect of 2025 capacity, 40% from new frequencies in existing markets needing additional capacity, and catching up on Boeing deliveries after previous delays.

Guilherme Mendes asked Pedro to identify other regions, besides Argentina and Brazil, that are experiencing a higher-than-average competitive environment.

Answer

CEO Pedro Heilbron reiterated that demand is healthy and growing at the pace of capacity across Latin America, with load factors holding up well. He elaborated on Brazil's recovery and Argentina's booming but capacity-saturated market, indicating a stabilization of growth there. Guilherme also asked if Copa would consider changing its fuel hedging policy given potential volatility in 2026.

Guilherme Mendes asked about other regions experiencing higher-than-average competitive environments beyond Argentina and Brazil, and whether Copa would consider changing its fuel hedging policy given fuel price volatility.

Answer

Pedro Heilbron, CEO of Copa Holdings, reiterated that demand is healthy and growing at the pace of capacity across Latin America, with load factors holding up. He specifically highlighted Brazil's recovery and Argentina's booming market attracting capacity, leading to some yield softening. Heilbron confirmed that Copa is not planning to change its fuel hedging strategy, as not hedging has historically worked well for the company and will remain its approach, noting that recent price increases were primarily in the crack spread rather than WTI or Brent.

Guilherme Mendes of JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned the outlook for passenger yields into 2026 amid rising industry capacity and asked for an update on the company's share buyback program.

Answer

CEO Pedro Heilbron acknowledged that yields have already declined from 2023 levels but emphasized that Copa has prepared for this by focusing on cost efficiencies, expressing confidence in delivering strong results even in a lower-yield environment. CFO Peter Donkersloot stated that approximately half of the $200 million share buyback program has been executed to date.

Guilherme Mendes requested a breakdown of demand by segment (leisure, VFR, corporate) and asked for more detail on the factors impacting RASM, specifically the relative pressures from foreign exchange versus competition.

Answer

CEO Pedro Heilbron provided a Q1 traffic breakdown of approximately 20% business and 45% leisure. He explained that RASM pressure comes from currency weakness in Brazil and increased competitive capacity in Mexico and Central America, while other regions remain solid.

Guilherme Mendes requested more detail on which specific regions or routes are experiencing the most significant overcapacity, which is pressuring yields and RASM.

Answer

CEO Pedro Heilbron identified Brazil and Colombia as key markets where industry capacity has grown significantly, close to the 20% range, compared to a broader regional average of 6-7%. He noted that this includes some of Copa's own capacity growth but that the overall increase is impacting the competitive environment in those specific countries.

Guilherme Mendes at JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the progress and expected timeline for the concession rebalance in Argentina, seeking clarity on key milestones and potential approval. He also asked for insights into the future trajectory of commercial revenues, specifically if the current strong performance represents a new normalized level or if further improvements are anticipated.

Answer

CFO Jorge Arruda stated that discussions for the Argentina concession rebalance are advancing at both technical and political levels, though a precise timetable is challenging to provide. Regarding commercial revenues, Mr. Arruda confirmed the strong performance, noting an 8% increase year-over-year, driven by VIP lounges, car rental, fueling, and cargo, and expects this positive trend to continue.

Guilherme Mendes inquired about the main milestones and potential timing for the rebalance of the concession agreement in Argentina, and also asked for expectations regarding the future performance and normalization of commercial revenues per passenger.

Answer

Jorge Arruda, CFO, stated that progress is being made at both technical and political levels for the Argentina concession rebalance, but a precise timetable is difficult to provide. Regarding commercial revenues, he noted a strong 8% year-over-year increase, driven by VIP lounges, car rental, fueling, and cargo, and expects this positive trend to continue, though not necessarily accelerating.

Guilherme Mendes of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the next steps and expected milestones for the concession re-equilibrium discussions in Argentina. He also asked if Corporacion America Airports is still interested in the former CCR airport assets being sold and whether they would consider bidding with a partner.

Answer

CFO Jorge Arruda addressed the questions, stating that for the CCR airport assets, the company is actively looking at the opportunity but is bound by confidentiality in the M&A process. Regarding the Argentine concession, Arruda confirmed that technical conversations are ongoing, covering the economic rebalancing and investment requirements, and that the company is engaged with the new Secretary of Transport appointed in May.

Guilherme Mendes from JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the expected next steps and milestones for the economic rebalancing discussion in Argentina and whether the company remains interested in acquiring Motiva's former CCR airport assets.

Answer

CFO Jorge Arruda confirmed that Corporacion America Airports is actively evaluating the CCR airport assets as an interesting M&A opportunity, noting the process is confidential. Regarding Argentina, he stated that conversations with technical teams about the economic equilibrium and investment requirements are ongoing and progressing well with the new Secretary of Transport.

Guilherme Mendes inquired about the expected next steps for the economic rebalancing discussions in Argentina and whether Corporación América Airports remains interested in acquiring Motiva's former CCR airport assets.

Answer

CFO Jorge Arruda confirmed that the company is actively evaluating the CCR airport assets as an interesting M&A opportunity, subject to confidentiality. Regarding Argentina, he stated that conversations with technical teams about the economic equilibrium and investment requirements are ongoing and progressing well with the new Secretary of Transport.

Guilherme Mendes asked for details on the performance of LATAM's international segment, comparing it to domestic and Spanish-speaking countries, and inquired about specific regional trends, routes impacting results, and whether the softer U.S. demand was leisure or corporate-driven.

Answer

CEO Roberto Alvo reported stable demand in most international segments, noting softer leisure-related demand for South America to the U.S. and northern South America regional traffic, possibly due to travelers opting for other regions or domestic travel. He expressed confidence in the demand outlook for the remainder of the year.

Guilherme Mendes followed up to ask about the potential expected impact of the pallet strike in Chile for the fourth quarter.

Answer

Roberto Alvo, CEO of LATAM Airlines Group, stated that at this point, there is no clarity on the potential impact of the pallet strike, and the company will provide an update if necessary at an appropriate time.

Guilherme Mendes from JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about LATAM's growth outlook for the next two to three years, seeking color on ASK growth and specific markets. He also asked about the company's capital allocation policy, specifically how it balances leverage targets with shareholder returns like dividends and buybacks.

Answer

CEO Roberto Alvo Milosawlewitsch projected high single-digit ASK growth for 2026, driven by a solid fleet plan and strong demand, noting particular strength in premium revenue and a stable situation in most markets. CFO Ricardo Bottas explained that shareholder returns are considered within a broader financial policy framework that includes liquidity, a leverage target at or below 1.5x, and achieving a BB+ rating. CEO Alvo added that growth opportunities are prioritized before decisions on further distributions are made.

Guilherme Mendes from JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about LATAM's growth outlook for the next 2-3 years in terms of ASK growth and the company's capital allocation strategy, specifically regarding future dividend distributions and leverage targets.

Answer

CEO Roberto Alvo Milosawlewitsch projected high single-digit ASK growth for 2026, driven by a solid demand environment and fleet additions, while noting the overcapacity in Colombia has balanced out. CFO Ricardo Bottas explained that shareholder returns are considered within a broader financial policy framework that includes liquidity, leverage targets (at or below 1.5x for 2025), and credit rating goals. Alvo added that growth opportunities are prioritized before further distributions.

Guilherme Mendes asked about LATAM's capacity and fleet flexibility in a potential demand downturn and sought views on the possible M&A between Azul and GOL in Brazil.

Answer

CEO Roberto Alvo Milosawlewitsch highlighted that flexibility comes from a fleet of older, low-capital-cost A319s, which allows capacity adjustments without altering new aircraft deliveries. Regarding the potential Azul-GOL merger, he stated it is premature to speculate on the non-binding agreement and that LATAM will react if the situation develops.

Guilherme Mendes requested clarification on what 'strategic investments' could entail as a use of capital and asked if there were any regions experiencing excessive competitive capacity that could pressure prices.

Answer

CEO Roberto Alvo Milosawlewitsch explained that while the company's strong balance sheet provides options for growth investments, there was nothing specific to report at this time. On competition, he identified domestic Colombia as a market with overcapacity and noted some seasonal capacity intensity between the U.S. and Brazil, but stated that most other markets remain relatively balanced.

Guilherme Mendes inquired if the cost and expense levels observed in Q3 2025 are indicative of future quarters and how this impacts the EBITDA margin guidance. He also asked for an update on the Master Development Program's maximum tariffs, the current fulfillment level, and the base case for future price increases in 2026.

Answer

CFO Saúl Villarreal confirmed that the current cost levels are expected to continue, as they align with increasing airport facilities and headcount, and reiterated that the company remains within its EBITDA margin guidance. Regarding maximum tariffs, Mr. Villarreal detailed the 15% increase in March and 7.5% in September, with another increase expected in early February 2026, aiming for 93-97% fulfillment by the end of 2026, subject to inflation and exchange rate fluctuations.

Guilherme Mendes asked for clarification on whether the cost and expense levels observed in Q3 2025 are sustainable for future quarters, and how this might impact the company's EBITDA margin guidance. He also requested an update on the MDP maximum tariffs, including the current fulfillment level at the end of Q3 and the base case for future price increases in 2026.

Answer

CFO Saúl Villarreal confirmed that Q3 cost levels are expected to continue, noting that increased facilities necessitate higher headcount for security and cleaning, which is part of the business. He reaffirmed that the company remains within its EBITDA margin guidance. Regarding maximum tariffs, Mr. Villarreal detailed the 15% increase in March and an additional 7.5% in September, with plans for another increase in early February 2026. He expects a much better fulfillment of the maximum tariff in 2026, contingent on inflation and exchange rates.

Guilherme Mendes from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked if acquiring the CCR portfolio would necessitate an equity injection and impact dividends, and also inquired about any potential impact from Volaris unbundling airport fees.

Answer

CEO Raúl Revuelta Musalem responded that based on their analysis, an acquisition of CCR would not require a capital injection due to GAP's healthy balance sheet. He also stated that the unbundling of fees by airlines is not a new practice and is not expected to impact traffic trends.

Guilherme Mendes from JPMorgan Chase & Co. questioned management's confidence in the full-year guidance amid macroeconomic risks and also requested an update on the potential new bid for the Turks and Caicos airport.

Answer

Executive Raul Musalem expressed continued confidence in the full-year traffic guidance, citing strong load factors and unmet domestic demand due to aircraft engine issues. He also stated that a final determination on the Turks and Caicos bidding process is expected from the government during May.

Guilherme Mendes from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for GAP's view on the likelihood and timing of the government potentially increasing the number of operating slots at Mexico City Airport.

Answer

Executive Raul Musalem responded that while it's based on public information, an increase in capacity at Mexico City Airport would be good news for the entire Mexican airport industry. He reasoned that more slots in Mexico City would allow for more efficient airline operations and turnarounds, which could in turn lead to additional operations at GAP's airports.

Guilherme Mendes of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for clarification on the Master Development Program (MDP) CapEx, an updated traffic outlook, and the primary drivers behind the strong passenger growth, particularly regarding near-shoring.

Answer

CEO Ricardo Dueñas Espriu confirmed the MDP CapEx is similar to the previous plan in real terms and updated the traffic forecast to mid-to-high single-digit growth for the rest of the year. CFO Ruffo Pérez Pliego attributed strong traffic performance, especially in Monterrey, to robust industrial activity and economic performance linked to near-shoring.

Guilherme Mendes inquired about OMA's 2024 traffic outlook, considering recent aircraft groundings, and asked for an update on the recovery pace for the Acapulco airport following Hurricane Otis.

Answer

CEO Ricardo Duenas stated that the full-year 2024 traffic outlook is now projected to be in the 'mid- to low negative single digit' range, contingent on the Pratt & Whitney engine issues. He added that Acapulco is currently operating at approximately 50% of its pre-hurricane capacity, with its recovery dependent on the city's overall recuperation.

Guilherme Mendes of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for clarification on the traffic outlook for the second half of 2025 and the specific impact of foreign exchange rates on commercial revenues. He later followed up on the potential traffic risk from sargassum.

Answer

CEO Adolfo Castro Rivas stated that domestic traffic should improve as the Pratt & Whitney engine issues have bottomed out. He noted FX impacts duty-free sales directly and indirectly influences spending behavior in other commercial areas. On his follow-up, Mr. Castro acknowledged that the sargassum situation is particularly severe this year, calling it a 'very tough situation'.

Guilherme Mendes asked about the traffic outlook for the second half of 2025, the specific impact of foreign exchange on commercial revenues, and whether the increase in sargassum in the Caribbean poses a risk to traffic.

Answer

CEO Adolfo Castro Rivas projected that domestic traffic should improve as engine-related issues have bottomed out. He noted the FX impact on commercial revenue is indirect, affecting tourist spending power. He acknowledged that sargassum levels are very high this year, which presents a challenge, particularly during the summer season.

Guilherme Mendes requested more details on the expected lifting of Mexico City airport restrictions and its potential traffic impact, and also asked if the passenger forecast for Tulum airport aligns with original MDP expectations.

Answer

Adolfo Castro Rivas stated he expects the Mexico City airport capacity restrictions to be eased by Q3 2025, from 43 to at least 52 operations per hour, which is crucial as the region generates 50% of the group's domestic traffic. He confirmed that the 2.9 million passenger projection for Tulum this year is very close to the original MDP expectation of approximately 3 million.

Guilherme Mendes followed up on Tulum's traffic performance versus expectations and asked for an update on the Dominican Republic asset and any other potential M&A activities.

Answer

Executive Adolfo Castro Rivas stated that Tulum's traffic is performing largely as expected, projecting 2.9 million passengers for the year. He confirmed the legal process for the Dominican Republic asset is ongoing with no new updates, and while the company reviews all opportunities, there are no significant new projects in the short term.

Guilherme Mendes of JPMorgan Chase & Co. followed up on the booking curve, asking if visibility had improved since Q1, and also inquired about the overall competitive environment and industry capacity rationality.

Answer

EVP Holger Blankenstein confirmed that demand patterns have stabilized and improved since the first half, with the second half tracking stronger and in line with historical seasonality. He described the competitive capacity environment as rational, noting that Volaris led capacity reductions and the industry has since adjusted to better align with demand.

Guilherme Mendes from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for an update on the booking curve, specifically if visibility had improved since Q1. He also inquired about the overall competitive environment and the level of industry rationality.

Answer

Holger Blankenstein, EVP of Airline Commercial & Operations, confirmed that demand patterns have stabilized and improved since Q1, with the second half of the year tracking stronger. He described the competitive environment as rational, noting that the industry has adjusted capacity downwards to align with current demand, a move Volaris initiated.

Guilherme Mendes asked for a breakdown of demand performance between the VFR and leisure segments and requested clarification on the factors negatively impacting Q1 yield performance.

Answer

Airline Executive Vice President Holger Blankenstein clarified that VFR traffic is the most affected segment, while leisure demand remains relatively strong, especially for domestic beach routes. He attributed the Q1 TRASM decline primarily to the 20% depreciation of the peso, noting that in constant currency, the decline would have been only about 7%.

Guilherme Mendes asked about the company's ability to pass through the recent Mexican peso depreciation into fares and sought an update on whether Mexico City slot restrictions might change under the new administration.

Answer

CFO Jaime Pous explained that the company has a natural hedge against foreign exchange fluctuations, aiming to increase U.S. dollar collections to 50% to align with its 60% USD-denominated cost base. CEO Enrique Beltranena stated that based on recent meetings, authorities do not expect to change the number of slots in Mexico City.

Inquired about fare elasticity and the potential for further price increases without harming demand, and asked for a quantification of the 'Elevate' plan's financial benefit for 2024 and 2025.

Answer

Azul will continue to test fare levels, supported by a disciplined market and strong economic indicators. The 'Elevate' plan is already contributing to the 2024 guidance of over BRL 6 billion in EBITDA, with the full incremental BRL 1 billion benefit expected to be realized in 2025 as initiatives are fully ramped up.