Gurpreet Singh Sahi

Gurpreet Sahi of Goldman Sachs asked if the 7% growth in FX revenue was above normal due to unusual currency volatility and what client behavior drove it. He also inquired about the loan growth outlook for Hong Kong and China, given lower interest rates.

Answer

Group CEO Georges Elhedery acknowledged that FX benefited from higher volatility but stressed it's a core capability where HSBC has a leadership position. He noted encouraging signs of commercial loan growth in the UK. Group CFO Pam Kaur added that while macro uncertainty can delay CapEx, the strong deposit base supports future lending and noted strong Southbound Connect flows into Hong Kong.

Gurpreet Sahi of Goldman Sachs asked if the strong 7% growth in FX revenue was above normal due to unusual currency volatility. He also inquired about the loan growth outlook, particularly whether lower interest rates are stimulating demand in the Hong Kong and China region following a pickup in the UK.

Answer

Group CEO Georges Elhedery acknowledged that FX revenue benefited from higher volatility but stressed it's a core capability where HSBC has a leadership position. He described the UK commercial loan growth as an encouraging 'green shoot.' Group CFO Pam Kaur added that while loan growth in Asia ex-HK/China was stable, broader macro uncertainty continues to delay client CapEx decisions, though the strong deposit base remains a key positive.

Gurpreet Singh Sahi requested a breakdown of factors that kept Q1 banking NII flat despite rate headwinds, such as deposit pass-through and the structural hedge. He also asked about the asset growth assumptions in the ~$42 billion NII guidance and the definition of 'around'.

Answer

Manveen Kaur, an executive, explained that headwinds from lower rates and fewer days were offset by tailwinds from reinvesting maturing hedge assets at higher yields, favorable asset mix changes, and delayed benefits from deposit pass-throughs in the U.K. She reiterated that the ~$42 billion NII guidance is the current best estimate, not an underpin, based on current trends in deposit flows and betas.

Asked about the outlook for loan growth in the coming year and the specific timing for the payment of the $0.21 special dividend related to the Canada sale.

Answer

Loan growth is expected from mortgages, unsecured retail, and specific geographies like Southeast Asia, India, and the Middle East, while commercial lending in Hong Kong remains soft. Trade finance is also showing positive signs. The special dividend is reasonably expected in H1 2024, following the Canada sale completion in Q1.