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    Hale Holden

    Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays

    Hale Holden is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Barclays, specializing in metals and mining sector research with a particular focus on companies such as Freeport-McMoRan, US Steel, Cleveland-Cliffs, and Nucor. He is recognized for delivering actionable investment insights, consistently earning high rankings on platforms like TipRanks with a success rate exceeding 70% and generating strong risk-adjusted average returns for clients. Holden began his equity research career at Merrill Lynch in the mid-2000s, subsequently holding analyst positions at Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan before joining Barclays in 2013. He holds FINRA Series 7, 63, and 86/87 registrations, and is frequently cited for his expertise and influential calls in the metals and mining space.

    Hale Holden's questions to ARKO (ARKO) leadership

    Hale Holden's questions to ARKO (ARKO) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Hale Holden from Barclays inquired about the status of the Other Tobacco Products (OTP) back-bar refresh, asking if the project was complete. He also asked what key performance indicators, such as merchandise sales lift, would define a successful new store format conversion.

    Answer

    CEO Arie Kotler confirmed that the back-bar refresh project, covering around 1,000 stores, was completed by the end of Q1/beginning of Q2. For the new store format, Kotler defined success as increased store traffic, a larger basket size, and expanded inside margin from higher-margin foodservice sales. He cited the first remodeled store as seeing a 6% lift in ex-cigarette sales in July year-over-year.

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    Hale Holden's questions to ARKO (ARKO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Hale Holden inquired about the puts and takes within the reaffirmed full-year guidance, specifically how the recent decline in crude and retail fuel prices has been factored in.

    Answer

    Rob Giammatteo, EVP and CFO, explained that the reaffirmed guidance incorporates a more constructive view on fuel margins, offset by lowered expectations for in-store sales and fuel gallons. He also highlighted a more aggressive stance on managing operating expenses and G&A, noting that G&A will be leaned out as the dealerization program progresses and was already down year-over-year, excluding a legal accrual.

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    Hale Holden's questions to ARKO (ARKO) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Hale Holden from Barclays asked for help bridging the 2025 EBITDA guidance, which is down year-over-year, with the expected $20 million in annualized dealerization savings. He also sought confirmation that the company expects to be free cash flow positive in 2025.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Rob Giammatteo clarified that the $20 million in savings is a run-rate figure that will not be fully achieved in 2025, as conversions are ongoing. He explained the accretive program is offsetting underlying negative same-store trends. Regarding cash flow, he suggested it was 'reasonable' to model positive cash build based on historical CapEx levels, without giving explicit guidance.

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    Hale Holden's questions to ARKO (ARKO) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Hale Holden from Barclays sought clarification on the run-rate benefit of the dealerization program, specifically the difference between the $8.5 million and the $15-$20 million figures, and also asked what gave management confidence that fuel volume declines were at or near a trough.

    Answer

    CEO Arie Kotler clarified that the $8.5 million is the annualized run-rate benefit from the ~150 stores being converted by the end of 2024. The total annualized benefit will reach $15-$20 million once additional conversions are completed in H1 2025. CFO Robert Giammatteo corrected that they are only 'hoping' Q3 was a trough for fuel volumes and are still guiding for a mid-single-digit decline in Q4. Kotler added his optimism for 2025 is based on broader economic expectations.

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    Hale Holden's questions to B&G Foods (BGS) leadership

    Hale Holden's questions to B&G Foods (BGS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Hale Holden from Barclays asked about the size of the LeSueur Canada brand, the timeline for recovering tariff costs through pricing, and if recent disclosures imply more imminent asset sales.

    Answer

    CFO Bruce Wacha confirmed the Canadian brand is smaller and that more asset sales are expected as part of the ongoing strategic review. CEO Casey Keller stated that fully recovering tariff impacts through pricing will likely take into fiscal 2026 due to retailer lead times and contract structures.

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    Hale Holden's questions to B&G Foods (BGS) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Hale Holden from Barclays asked for clarification on the materiality of potential tariffs on Canadian maple syrup and inquired about the portfolio's potential risk from any material reductions to SNAP benefits.

    Answer

    CFO Bruce Wacha provided context on the maple syrup business, noting its sales are around $70 million, and clarified that the Green Giant Canadian business is largely self-contained and not at risk. Regarding SNAP, Wacha stated they believe B&G has less exposure than some peers. CEO Casey Keller added that their portfolio of meal-preparation products is unlikely to be targeted for exclusion if SNAP benefits become more directed, though a general reduction in benefits could have some impact.

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    Hale Holden's questions to B&G Foods (BGS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Hale Holden of Barclays inquired if the Specialty segment's margin decline was solely due to Crisco and asked if the 2025 volume normalization outlook included the foodservice channel.

    Answer

    CFO Bruce Wacha explained the Specialty segment's sales were down more than profit, as lower soybean oil costs were passed through via lower pricing for Crisco. CEO Casey Keller clarified that he expects gradual improvement throughout 2025, with normalization more likely in the second half, and noted that third-party data suggests foodservice traffic may remain negative in early 2025.

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    Hale Holden's questions to ACCO BRANDS (ACCO) leadership

    Hale Holden's questions to ACCO BRANDS (ACCO) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Hale Holden of Barclays asked for clarification on the Brazilian tax settlement, questioning if it resulted in a cash return or was an accounting credit. He also inquired about the expected price increase percentage consumers might see on shelves due to tariffs and the potential for an elasticity hit.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Deborah A. O'Connor clarified that the Brazil tax issue involved resolving a $20 million liability for a $7 million cash payment, with the remaining $13 million being a non-cash accounting adjustment to the income statement. Regarding pricing, she noted it's complex due to the mix of products and inventory, but the goal is to cover costs and maintain margin. President & CEO Thomas Tedford added that while difficult to quantify, the company's forecast appropriately models a modest volume decline due to price elasticity.

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    Hale Holden's questions to ACCO BRANDS (ACCO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Hale Holden of Barclays asked about the magnitude of the back-to-school sales pull-forward into Q1, the potential for channel inventory shortages, and the quantum of recent and planned U.S. price increases related to tariffs.

    Answer

    President and CEO Tom Tedford characterized the back-to-school pull-forward as relatively insignificant for the full season and assured there is no risk of inventory shortages, as the company is well-positioned to handle replenishment. Regarding price increases, he stated the company will protect its gross margins but was cautious on specifics pending the final outcome of reciprocal tariffs, confirming the next pricing action depends on the 90-day tariff expiration.

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    Hale Holden's questions to ACCO BRANDS (ACCO) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Hale Holden asked if potential additional cost savings in 2025 would be part of a normal program or something larger. He also sought clarification on whether the third-party consultant's work was focused on streamlining new products or evaluating potential divestitures.

    Answer

    President and CEO Tom Tedford stated that while ongoing productivity programs will continue, the company is also evaluating opportunities for cost optimization beyond the normalized program for 2025, though no decisions have been made. He clarified that the third-party consultant is reviewing the entire product portfolio to improve revenue outcomes from new product development, not to evaluate divestitures.

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    Hale Holden's questions to HERBALIFE (HLF) leadership

    Hale Holden's questions to HERBALIFE (HLF) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Hale Holden from Barclays sought to confirm if the raised EBITDA guidance for the year includes new SG&A costs for the Pro2col launch and asked about the drivers of strong Q1 cash conversion despite high bonus payouts.

    Answer

    CFO John DeSimone confirmed that the updated guidance includes the operating costs for Pro2col, which are meaningful but not material for a company of Herbalife's size. Regarding cash flow, DeSimone explained that the strong conversion was driven by successfully executing initiatives to lower the company's minimum required cash balance, allowing them to draw down cash to pay debt and cover operating needs.

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    Hale Holden's questions to HERBALIFE (HLF) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Hale Holden asked if the company could potentially achieve a better leverage ratio than the stated 3.0x target for 2025 and requested a simplified explanation of the recent intellectual property transfer to Europe and its impact on the tax rate.

    Answer

    CFO John DeSimone responded that the official leverage target remains 'at or below 3.0x,' which allows for the possibility of outperformance. Regarding the IP transfer, he explained its primary purpose is to facilitate more efficient cash movement for debt paydown and provide future operational flexibility. He clarified that the one-time non-cash tax benefit will be offset by non-cash detriments in future periods, and both will be excluded from adjusted results, resulting in no change to the company's cash tax rate.

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    Hale Holden's questions to HERBALIFE (HLF) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Hale Holden inquired if the new internal banking structure would reduce the amount of cash held on the balance sheet and asked for the rationale behind no longer reporting India as a stand-alone geography, requesting color on its performance.

    Answer

    CFO John DeSimone confirmed the internal bank is designed to reduce required cash holdings and clarified that India has always been reported within the APAC region, not as a stand-alone segment. President Stephan Gratziani added that while India's high-growth phase is moderating due to its larger scale, the market saw a 30% increase in new distributors in Q3.

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    Hale Holden's questions to CENTRAL GARDEN & PET (CENT) leadership

    Hale Holden's questions to CENTRAL GARDEN & PET (CENT) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Hale Holden from Barclays asked for clarification on the sequential improvement in pet durables on a two-year basis to gauge stabilization, and requested a simple explanation for the timing of the Q1 Garden shipment pull-forward.

    Answer

    John Hanson, President of Pet Consumer Products, reiterated that while declines are lessening sequentially, it's still a year-over-year decline. J.D. Walker, President of Garden Consumer Products, explained the Q1 timing was due to large retail customers picking up their initial store-set inventory in the last week of December rather than the first week of January, which is a normal but unpredictable timing variable.

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    Hale Holden's questions to INGLES MARKETS (IMKTA) leadership

    Hale Holden's questions to INGLES MARKETS (IMKTA) leadership • Q3 2015

    Question

    Hale Holden from Barclays inquired about the outlook for inflation and deflation, the health of the consumer in Ingles' markets, and whether the noted labor tightness was a widespread issue.

    Answer

    CFO Ronald Freeman identified rising egg prices as the most significant inflationary pressure, impacting various product categories. He conveyed that consumer sentiment in their operating areas is positive, with people feeling better due to recent wage increases. Freeman confirmed that the difficulty in hiring associates is a widespread issue across their markets, reflecting a tighter national labor market and general wage growth.

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