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    Heather Jones • Heather Jones Research

    Heather Jones's questions to Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) leadership

    Heather Jones's questions to Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Heather Jones of Heather Jones Research inquired about the expected cadence of profitability in the packaged meats segment for the second half, given accelerating cost inflation, and sought clarification on the level of conservatism in the hog production guidance.

    Answer

    Steven France, President of Packaged Meats, reiterated confidence in their full-year guidance, citing strategies to manage costs. CFO Mark Hall noted that Q3 is seasonally softer than Q4. Regarding hog production, CEO Shane Smith acknowledged the guidance likely contains some conservatism and that based on current visibility, they anticipate results toward the higher end of the range.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Heather Jones of Heather Jones Research inquired about the Hog Production segment's genetics program, asking how much of the benefit has been realized and if there are any negative offsets. She also asked for the company's perspective on industry-wide hog health challenges.

    Answer

    CEO Shane Smith explained that the five-year genetics project is in its final six months, and the financial benefits, primarily from sow productivity, are beginning to manifest. He noted a trade-off with the new genetics being slightly more challenging from a health perspective, but this is being managed. Regarding industry health, Smith acknowledged hearing about more disease across the industry post-winter but stated Smithfield has only seen slightly elevated cases regionally and believes it won't be as significant an issue for them as for others.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) leadership

    Heather Jones's questions to Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Heather Jones of Heather Jones Research asked a two-part question about the crush business: first, for a clarification on the 'replacement curve,' and second, for a big-picture view on ADM's positioning for 2026-2027 if biofuel policies play out favorably.

    Answer

    CFO Monish Patolawala clarified that the 'replacement curve' refers to cash margins. CEO Juan Luciano added that favorable biofuel policies (RVOs) are expected to significantly increase soybean oil demand, shifting value to the crush and biodiesel parts of the value chain. He noted that historically, when oil's share of crush value rises to around 50%, margins improve significantly, positioning ADM well for the future.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Heather Jones of Heather Jones Research asked a two-part question about the crush business, seeking clarification on the term 'replacement curve' and inquiring about ADM's strategic positioning for 2026-2027 if biofuel policies play out favorably.

    Answer

    CFO Monish Patolawala clarified that the 'replacement curve' refers to realized cash margins, not just board crush futures. CEO Juan Luciano added that favorable RVOs would significantly boost soybean oil demand, likely benefiting crush and biodiesel margins while potentially squeezing refining margins. He noted that historically, when oil's value share of crush rises, overall margins improve, positioning ADM well for that scenario.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Heather Jones asked whether ADM's guidance includes any expected impact from potential trade tariffs and requested commentary on how such tariffs might affect its North American operations.

    Answer

    CEO Juan Luciano confirmed that the guidance does not include any impact from tariffs due to their unpredictability. He explained that while U.S.-imposed tariffs can be slightly beneficial, the primary risk comes from retaliatory measures. He emphasized that ADM's global origination and destination marketing footprint provides significant optionality to navigate trade flow disruptions, making the net effect uncertain.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Heather Jones asked for quantification of two potential earnings tailwinds for 2025: the negative impact from take-or-pay contracts in 2024 and the costs associated with unplanned operational downtimes. She also followed up for an estimate of reinsurance proceeds expected in 2025 and 2026.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Monish Patolawala quantified the year-to-date impact from take-or-pay contracts at approximately $40 million but did not quantify the cost of unplanned downtime. Chair and CEO Juan Luciano added that automation projects should create future upside. For the follow-up, Patolawala gave preliminary loss estimates for the Decatur incidents and projected reinsurance proceeds in the range of $50 million to $100 million for 2025, with the remainder to follow.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Tyson Foods Inc (TSN) leadership

    Heather Jones's questions to Tyson Foods Inc (TSN) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Heather Jones of Heather Jones Research asked about the significant increase in hedged cattle, questioning if it represents a new, ongoing strategy. She also inquired why recent tariffs on Brazilian beef have not had a more pronounced impact on U.S. beef pricing.

    Answer

    Group President Brady Stewart described hedging as one component of a holistic and integrated supply chain strategy, rather than a standalone change. Regarding tariffs, he explained there is a significant time lag for such impacts to reach the retail level and noted that other market dynamics, like inflation in fat trim prices, are also influencing the beef complex.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Tyson Foods Inc (TSN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Heather Jones of Heather Jones Research asked if the initial guidance for beef and pork included tariff impacts, and if a resolution could present upside. She also pressed for more detail on the Chicken segment's second-half outlook, questioning if pricing investments were planned.

    Answer

    CFO Curt Calaway clarified that the company's guidance range provided last quarter did indeed include their outlook on tariffs. Regarding Chicken, CEO Donnie King highlighted the strategy of adding value to dark meat, while Calaway reiterated that the guidance implies a strong second half, contextualizing the performance relative to the very strong first half and planned investments.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Tyson Foods Inc (TSN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Heather Jones of Heather Jones Research LLC inquired about the primary takeaways from the strong Q1 results and the potential net impact of tariffs from Mexico on Tyson's operations, particularly in the pork segment.

    Answer

    President and CEO Donnie King outlined five key takeaways, emphasizing profitable growth, significant debt and leverage reduction, and successfully managing the beef cycle. Regarding tariffs, King confirmed these risks were factored into the updated guidance and that the company is leveraging its global expertise for contingency planning to mitigate potential disruptions.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Tyson Foods Inc (TSN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Heather Jones of Heather Jones Research sought to quantify the drivers of the Chicken segment's growth, specifically separating controllable operational improvements from market assumptions. She also asked about Beef retail dynamics and the potential for increased promotions.

    Answer

    Wes Morris, Group President of Poultry, specified that operational improvements unrelated to market conditions contributed over $500 million in a step-change improvement, with another $185 million planned for FY25. Brady Stewart, Group President of Beef, addressed the retail question by noting continued strong consumer demand for beef, especially grinds, and that retailers are employing varied promotional strategies, suggesting demand will remain firm.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Ingredion Inc (INGR) leadership

    Heather Jones's questions to Ingredion Inc (INGR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Heather Jones of Heather Jones Research challenged the Texture & Healthful Solutions (THS) outlook, noting the guidance implies minimal back-half growth despite strong performance, and asked about the volume cadence through the quarter.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Jim Gray stated the second-half outlook for THS is appropriately cautious due to potential cost shifts from newly announced tariffs. President & CEO Jim Zallie added that while direct tariff impacts are minimal, they are being prudent about indirect effects on customers. Regarding cadence, Zallie confirmed they are not seeing any abrupt negative changes in trends exiting Q2 and entering Q3.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Ingredion Inc (INGR) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Heather Jones of Heather Jones Research asked for clarification on the pricing dynamics in Argentina, questioning if the benefit from pricing actions in Q1 2024 has been fully lapped. She also requested specifics on the upside and downside drivers for the full-year EPS guidance range.

    Answer

    CFO Jim Gray clarified that due to ongoing high inflation in Argentina, their JV partner continues to price ahead, so it is not a one-time event that gets lapped. For the guidance range, CEO Jim Zallie listed upside drivers as a quick tariff resolution and stronger-than-assumed volumes. CFO Jim Gray identified downside risks as the full implementation of suspended tariffs and a potential shallow U.S. recession.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Ingredion Inc (INGR) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Heather Jones asked for the key drivers behind the significant expected profit improvement in the 'All Other' segment for 2025. She also inquired about what is driving the mid-single-digit EBIT growth outlook for Latin America, given the segment's already strong performance in the prior two years.

    Answer

    President and CEO Jim Zallie detailed that the 'All Other' segment's improvement is driven by growth in the profitable Pakistan and sugar reduction businesses, a ~$10 million positive impact from a plant closure, and steady improvement in the protein business. For LATAM, EVP and CFO Jim Gray and CEO Jim Zallie cited continued opportunities in Brazil, strong momentum in the Andean region, and a strategic focus on network optimization and product mix upgrades as key drivers for further profit growth.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Ingredion Inc (INGR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Heather Jones of Heather Jones Research asked for an outlook on 2025 net financing costs and inquired about the expected improvement trajectory for the protein fortification business.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Jim Gray explained that 2024 financing costs were lower due to favorable FX and reduced borrowing needs from strong working capital performance. For the protein business, President and CEO James Zallie confirmed they expect a proportional year-over-year improvement in operating income for 2025, similar to the significant improvement seen in 2024, driven primarily by the higher-value pea protein isolate business.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Pilgrims Pride Corp (PPC) leadership

    Heather Jones's questions to Pilgrims Pride Corp (PPC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Heather Jones asked for more detail on the supply chain for the new Walker County plant, questioning if it would involve converting small bird capacity to NAE. She also asked for an updated perspective on the company's ideal US business mix, moving beyond the 'a third, a third, a third' framework.

    Answer

    President & Global CEO Fabio Sandri explained that the company continuously adjusts its portfolio to meet demand, which is currently strongest in case-ready and big bird segments. He confirmed a big bird plant is being converted to case-ready to support NAE growth. CFO Matthew Galvanoni added that the prepared foods business sources from both internal and external suppliers. Sandri reiterated that a balanced approach across bird sizes remains the goal, even while converting capacity to meet growth in differentiated offerings.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Pilgrims Pride Corp (PPC) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Heather Jones asked for clarity on U.S. volume growth expectations for 2025, considering plant ramp-ups and conversions. She also inquired about the timing of the new greenfield plants, specifically asking if permitting for the protein conversion facility was facing delays.

    Answer

    CEO Fabio Sandri projected that U.S. volume growth would be slightly ahead of the market, driven by support for key customers and improved live operations. He noted the volume impact from a plant conversion would be more significant in 2026. Regarding greenfield projects, he acknowledged that negotiations with municipalities are standard but expressed confidence in moving forward, citing new technology that minimizes operational impact.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Pilgrims Pride Corp (PPC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Heather Jones requested clarification on which U.S. export partners have switched to county-level restrictions for bird flu. She also asked if operational issues at the Douglas, GA complex contributed to the lighter-than-expected U.S. profitability and when that facility would return to normal.

    Answer

    CEO Fabio Sandri clarified that Taiwan is creating a new procedure to move towards zonal bans, a significant positive change. Regarding the Douglas complex, he stated that while it was impacted by a storm, the company managed production by moving birds from other regional operations, preventing a material impact on results. He expects the housing ramp-up at Douglas to be complete around Q3 or Q4 2025.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Pilgrims Pride Corp (PPC) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Heather Jones inquired about Pilgrim's U.S. production growth outlook for Q4 following the hurricane impact and questioned broader industry production trends, highlighting a persistent gap between chick placements and actual slaughter numbers.

    Answer

    President and CEO Fabio Sandri stated that despite hurricane disruptions at one facility, production will be managed across the network, and Q4 volumes should be comparable to the prior year. Regarding the industry production gap, he attributed it to ongoing hatchability and mortality challenges with the current primary broiler breed, which limits the industry's ability to significantly increase production despite high hatchery utilization.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Bunge Global SA (BG) leadership

    Heather Jones's questions to Bunge Global SA (BG) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Heather Jones of Heather Jones Research asked about the potential for U.S. refining margins to compress as biofuel demand surges and questioned the normalized range for crush margins given the interplay between oil demand and meal production.

    Answer

    CEO Greg Heckman responded that Bunge has long expected refining margins to moderate, with some of that value shifting back into the crush margin. CFO John Neppl noted that food remains the primary destination for their refined oil. Regarding the overall setup, Heckman expressed encouragement, citing large crops, strong meal demand, and constructive biofuel policies as supportive of the crush margin environment.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Bunge Global SA (BG) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Heather Jones asked for commentary on potential RVO volumes and their market impact, and also questioned how U.S.-China tariffs could affect Brazilian crush margins and capacity expansion.

    Answer

    CEO Greg Heckman expressed optimism about the RVO outcome, emphasizing a coalition's advocacy for a policy aligned with existing U.S. production capacity. On tariffs, Heckman and CFO John Neppl stressed the flexibility of Bunge's global footprint, which allows them to pivot between domestic crush and exports in key regions like the U.S. and Brazil to adapt to market conditions.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Bunge Global SA (BG) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Heather Jones asked for specifics on the offsetting factors causing a softer 2025 outlook for the Merchandising segment and questioned how Bunge's view on the Viterra acquisition has evolved given new biofuel regulations impacting canola.

    Answer

    CEO Gregory Heckman noted the Merchandising outlook is conservative due to a balanced global supply and demand environment, which creates uncertainty for customers. CFO John Neppl identified lower ocean freight rates as a primary headwind. Regarding Viterra, Heckman highlighted canola's strong, traditional demand in food and dairy, while Neppl stressed the acquisition's long-term strategic value in navigating any trade disruptions.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Bunge Global SA (BG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Heather Jones asked if strong soy oil export demand could offset potential weakness in U.S. biofuel demand and if there were logistical constraints. She also questioned if there was room for further increases in soy meal feed inclusion rates in 2025.

    Answer

    CEO Greg Heckman confirmed that U.S. soy oil is globally competitive and believes the U.S. has the logistical capacity to handle increased exports. On soy meal, he stated that favorable economics for animal producers and less competition from other feedstuffs support high inclusion rates, a trend he sees continuing into 2025. CFO John Neppl highlighted Bunge's global meal marketing capabilities as a key strength.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Hormel Foods Corp (HRL) leadership

    Heather Jones's questions to Hormel Foods Corp (HRL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Heather Jones inquired if Hormel is gaining share in ground turkey as competitors close facilities and asked if the Retail segment's volumes, down significantly since 2021, are nearing a stabilization point.

    Answer

    CEO Jim Snee noted that while competitor supply is tightening, the full impact is yet to be seen, and Hormel remains focused on driving its own demand. EVP of Retail John Ghingo highlighted strong consumer trends for Jennie-O. Regarding retail volumes, Ghingo explained the Q2 decline was driven by lower commodity shipments and promotional timing, not core brand weakness, and expressed confidence in driving demand in the second half.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Hormel Foods Corp (HRL) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Heather Jones followed up on the turkey market, asking if the full-year outlook assumes any benefit from potentially improving whole-bird pricing or if it only accounts for passing through costs on value-added items. She also questioned the path to the company's 2026 EBIT target from the Analyst Day, noting it implies substantial 15-25% growth in 2026, and asked what drives that level of expansion.

    Answer

    CFO Jacinth Smiley stated that the company's assumptions for whole-bird turkey markets have not changed in their plan; the referenced pricing actions are specific to the rest of the value-added turkey complex. CEO James Snee reaffirmed confidence in the 2026 target, explaining that it will be achieved through a combination of underlying business growth and the accelerating benefits from the Transform & Modernize (T&M) initiative, which he described as a 'powerful growth flywheel.'

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    Heather Jones's questions to Hormel Foods Corp (HRL) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Heather Jones asked if the fiscal 2025 guidance accounts for further SKU rationalization and inquired about the company's strategic plans to reduce commodity volatility in its turkey business, similar to actions taken in its pork segment.

    Answer

    CEO Jim Snee confirmed that the impact of portfolio optimization, including SKU rationalization, is embedded in the guidance. VP of Corporate Development Nathan Annis added that this process creates room for innovation. Regarding the turkey business, Snee explained that the long-term goal is to create a 'demand-driven business' focused on value-added products like lean ground turkey and foodservice offerings to minimize volatility, a process that was hindered but not stopped by recent avian influenza outbreaks.

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    Heather Jones's questions to Hormel Foods Corp (HRL) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Heather Jones of Heather Jones Research LLC noted that whole bird turkey and contract manufacturing drove most of the sales decline and asked if they were a larger part of the volume decline and when the comparisons would ease. She also questioned if the 2026 EBIT improvement target was still achievable.

    Answer

    CEO James Snee stated the volume decline was fairly proportional to the sales decline and that a clear read on the turkey cycle would likely not be available until spring 2025. CFO Jacinth Smiley reaffirmed that the company is tracking well towards its $250 million EBIT improvement target by 2026, noting that 2024 was a planned investment year and that a significant ramp-up is expected in 2025 and 2026.

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