Henri Patricot

Henri Patricot asked for a breakdown of the expected cash flow from operations improvement from $16 billion in 2026 to $18 billion in 2027, and the potential financial impact on Equinor's framework if the Empire Wind 1 project does not complete.

Answer

President and CEO Anders Opedal attributed the cash flow increase to the tax lag effect in Norway (paying higher taxes in 2026 based on 2025 prices) and a 3% production increase in 2026, all based on flat price assumptions. CFO Torgrim Reitan stated that the threshold for not moving forward with Empire Wind is extremely high, as remaining investments are covered by Investment Tax Credits (ITC) and future cash flow, making the forward-looking economics solid.

Henri Patricot asked for a breakdown of the expected cash flow from operations improvement from $16 billion in 2026 to $18 billion in 2027, and the potential financial impact if the Empire Wind 1 project does not complete.

Answer

CEO Anders Opedal attributed the cash flow improvement to flat price assumptions, the tax lag effect in Norway (paying higher taxes in 2026 based on 2025 prices), and a 3% production increase in 2026. CFO Torgrim Reitan stated that the threshold for stopping Empire Wind 1 is very high, as forward-looking economics are solid, with remaining investments covered by Investment Tax Credits (ITC) and cash flow from operations, and the project is currently on track.

Henri Patricot from UBS Group AG asked for an update on the latest thinking regarding the timing of the Peregrino disposal. He also inquired about the expected evolution of Johan Sverdrup's production, specifically whether a decline is anticipated next year.

Answer

Torgrim Reitan, CFO, confirmed Peregrino came back on stream October 17th, producing over 100,000 barrels per day. He stated that 40% of the 60% ownership divestment to Prio is expected to close in Q4, with the remaining 20% in Q1 next year, for a consideration slightly below $3 billion. For Johan Sverdrup, Mr. Reitan highlighted its strong performance and 75% recovery rate. He noted that while Phase 3 was sanctioned for end 2027, production in 2025 is expected to be similar to 2023/2024, but a decline is anticipated in 2026.

Henri Patricot requested an update on the latest thinking regarding the timing of the Peregrino disposal. He also asked about the expected evolution of Johan Sverdrup's production into 2026, specifically if a decline is anticipated next year.

Answer

CFO Torgrim Reitan confirmed Peregrino was back on stream October 17th, producing over 100,000 barrels per day. He stated Equinor is divesting its 60% stake to Prio, with 40% expected to close in Q4 and the remaining 20% in Q1 next year. The consideration is expected to be just under $3 billion, split between Q4 and Q1. He emphasized Equinor's long-term commitment to Brazil, redeploying resources to Bacalhau and Raia. For Johan Sverdrup, he highlighted its strong performance (near 100% regularity) and a 75% recovery rate. He noted that while production will be maintained at 2023/2024 levels in 2025, a decline is expected in 2026.

Henri Patricot asked about the drivers behind higher unit costs in international E&P, specifically the split between one-off and structural factors, and inquired about plans to slow the production decline at Johan Sverdrup.

Answer

Executive Torgrim Reitan attributed the quarterly unit cost increase primarily to the extensive turnaround program, which lowered production volumes. For Johan Sverdrup, he confirmed the production plateau will extend into early 2025 as expected and detailed optimization efforts, including new wells, multilaterals, and a potential Phase 3 development.

Henri Patricot from UBS inquired about the negative earnings contribution from the 'other' subsection within the MMP segment, asking if this drag from low-carbon project development would increase. He also asked about the implications of Dogger Bank A delays for phases B and C.

Answer

Executive Torgrim Reitan explained that the MMP segment's results were within the guided range, with strong trading performance offsetting maintenance at the Mongstad refinery. He noted that early-phase low-carbon project costs are expensed but are accounted for in the guidance. For Dogger Bank, he provided the latest timelines for phases B and C, which are planned sequentially a year apart, and directed more detailed questions to the operator, SSE.

Henri Patricot of UBS Group asked how the proceeds from the Peregrino disposal would be used and questioned the rationale for signing long-term gas contracts at spot prices rather than using alternative pricing to hedge against future market weakness.

Answer

EVP & CFO Torgrim Reitan explained that M&A decisions are driven by strategy and value, not just proceeds, and that the company remains focused on a strong balance sheet. Regarding the gas contracts, he stated they demonstrate the attractiveness of Norwegian gas for Europe's security of supply. The spot-based pricing, combined with free sourcing, provides full flexibility while ensuring investors retain exposure to the European gas market, which Equinor actively manages.

Henri Patricot of UBS Group AG asked how the proceeds from the Peregrino disposal would be used and questioned the rationale for signing long-term gas contracts based on spot prices, which maintains exposure to potential price declines.

Answer

EVP & CFO Torgrim Reitan explained that the Peregrino proceeds are part of a broader strategy of portfolio optimization, not directly linked to new acquisitions, and emphasized maintaining a strong balance sheet. On gas contracts, he stated they demonstrate the attractiveness of Norwegian gas and provide flexibility, while confirming Equinor's strategy is to maintain exposure to European spot gas prices (70% day-ahead, 30% month-ahead) for its investors.

Henri Patricot asked about any expected changes in TotalEnergies' exploration approach with the new Head of Exploration and an update on the latest plans for exploration in Namibia and South Africa.

Answer

Patrick Pouyanné, Chairman and CEO, stated that TotalEnergies' exploration budget ($800M-$1B) remains consistent, emphasizing efficiency and new ideas from the new Head of Exploration, Nicola Mavela. He mentioned recent license awards in Nigeria, Liberia, and Congo. For Namibia, exploration continues, while South Africa faces legal complexities and permitting challenges, requiring government action to ease exploration for future development.

Henri Patricot from UBS Group AG requested an update on the Venus discovery in Namibia, including the latest developments and whether the project could change with involvement in the adjacent Demopane discovery.

Answer

Patrick Pouyanné, Chairman & CEO, confirmed he met with the new Namibian government, which is eager to develop its oil industry. He stated that teams have been established on both sides to engage in discussions, emphasizing the need for strong alignment before moving forward. The government's goal is to have oil produced before the end of 2029, implying a final investment decision is needed before the end of 2025.

Henri Patricot asked if the lower Q1 ROACE in the Integrated Power segment was temporary or indicative of challenges in executing farm-downs. He also questioned the achievability of the $6 billion CFFO target for the Integrated LNG business in 2025.

Answer

CFO Jean-Pierre Sbraire confirmed the lower ROACE in Integrated Power was purely a timing issue related to farm-downs and expects Q2 to reflect the catch-up. CEO Patrick Pouyanné clarified the Integrated LNG CFFO guidance was a range of $5.5 billion to $6 billion. He explained Q1 results were impacted by a correct but unfortunately timed bullish gas trading position, but he maintained the full-year guidance range.

Henri Patricot of UBS asked for comments on inflationary pressures affecting projects and for clarification on the full-year net investment guidance, including the balance of acquisitions and disposals.

Answer

CEO Patrick Pouyanné acknowledged industry-wide inflation of around 20% compared to 2020 lows but stated it is now stabilizing and manageable within project sanctioning criteria. He noted Papua LNG was a specific case due to its remote location. He reiterated the full-year net investment guidance of $17-18 billion and suggested the long-term plan of $16-18 billion would likely be confirmed at the upcoming Investor Day.

Henri Patricot of UBS noted the strong Q1 cash flow from the Integrated Power segment and asked if this run rate was sustainable for the rest of the year, or if seasonality would affect it, given it annualizes to the high end of guidance.

Answer

CEO Patrick Pouyanné confirmed the full-year guidance of $2.5 billion to $3.0 billion for Integrated Power cash flow. He cautioned against simply annualizing the Q1 result, pointing out that seasonality in power demand affects performance throughout the year. However, he expressed a goal of landing closer to the top end of the range.