Henry Tarr

Henry Tarr (Berenberg) asked how TotalEnergies plans to market the EPH volumes once they enter its portfolio and whether the $15 billion net CapEx guidance for the year is an organic number or includes further acquisitions and divestments.

Answer

Stéphane Michel, President, Gas, Renewables & Power, TotalEnergies, explained that EPH volumes are not pre-sold; TotalEnergies will offtake 50% post-closing and market them on the wholesale market with normal hedging. Patrick Pouyanné, Chairman and CEO of TotalEnergies, clarified that the $15 billion net CapEx includes $16 billion organic CapEx and a net $1 billion from divestments (more divestments than acquisitions), with a robust pipeline of identified divestments.

Henry Tarr asked how TotalEnergies would approach its interests in Russia in the event of a peace deal with Ukraine.

Answer

CEO Patrick Pouyanné stated that any future approach would depend entirely on the specific conditions of a peace deal, which are currently unknown. He emphasized that the company's Yamal LNG project is a "prime asset" and the long-term anchor of its position in the country, but declined to speculate further on hypothetical geopolitical outcomes.

Henry Tarr from Berenberg asked if future developments like Bumerangue and Paleogene will be possible within the current CapEx frame, and how BP plans to control costs and minimize overruns for these projects.

Answer

Kate Thomson, Chief Financial Officer, confirmed that the Paleogene projects are fully funded within the current $13-$15 billion CapEx frame for the next two years, with no need to change it yet. Gordon Birrell, Executive Vice President, Production and Operations, added that Bumerangue's big spend kicks in closer to FID. He emphasized using technology and AI (e.g., fully onshore-controlled platforms like GTA) and supply chain optimization to keep costs down and minimize overruns.

Henry Tarr from Berenberg asked if future developments like Bumerangue and Paleogene will be possible within BP's current CapEx frame, and how the company plans to control costs and minimize overruns for these projects.

Answer

Kate Thomson, Chief Financial Officer, confirmed that Paleogene projects are fully funded within the current $13-$15 billion CapEx frame for the next two years. Gordon Birrell, Executive Vice President of Production and Operations, added that Bumerangue's major spend kicks in closer to FID, and cost control will involve applying technology (e.g., fully controlled onshore platforms like GTA) and continuously optimizing the supply chain.

Henry Tarr asked for details on the economics of BP's Kirkuk contract in Iraq and the potential overall impact on Iraq's production growth over the next three to five years.

Answer

Murray Auchincloss (CEO, BP) stated he could not disclose full economics due to the unpublished production sharing agreement but confirmed initial production of 328 KBD of black oil. He noted the terms are better than previous rounds, including price upside, ability to take gas price, and exploration rights. He suggested Iraq would be crucial for meeting future oil demand as non-OPEC Plus production plateaus, but deferred to the nation for specific production capacity discussions.

Henry Tarr asked for more details on the economics of BP's Kirkuk contract in Iraq and the potential macro impact of Iraq's overall production growth over the next three to five years.

Answer

Murray Auchincloss (CEO, BP) stated he couldn't disclose full economics due to an unpublished PSA but confirmed an initial production test of 328 KBD and better contract terms than previous rounds, including price upside and gas price ability. He emphasized Iraq's crucial role in meeting future oil demand as non-OPEC+ production declines.

Henry Tarr from Berenberg inquired about the outlook for the gas and low carbon business, particularly trading, and asked about the main focus of early discussions with the incoming new chairman.

Answer

CEO Murray Auchincloss shared that his initial discussions with the incoming chairman have focused on driving shareholder value, disciplined capital allocation, and instilling competitive cost tension. On the gas business, he reiterated that BP's trading strategy is built on optionality and volatility, not market direction, and the long-term assumption of delivering 4% returns remains unchanged.

Henry Tarr from Berenberg asked for the outlook on the gas and low carbon business following its strong quarterly rebound and inquired about the primary focus of early discussions with BP's incoming chairman.

Answer

CEO Murray Auchincloss stated that early talks with incoming chair Albert Manifold have centered on driving shareholder value, disciplined capital investment, and enhancing cost competitiveness. Regarding the gas business, he reiterated that BP's trading strategy is based on capturing value from volatility and optionality, and the outlook for delivering ~4% returns from trading remains unchanged.

Henry Tarr from Berenberg asked about BP's future plans in Namibia following the significant Azul discovery, and whether the company would be interested in increasing its exposure to the region.

Answer

Executive Murray Auchincloss confirmed the Azul well was a significant discovery with a successful extended well test. He stated that BP and its partner ENI are currently evaluating the results to determine the next steps. While acknowledging BP is always looking for interesting global exploration acreage, he said the company is currently happy with its existing position in Namibia and it's premature to comment further.

Henry Tarr asked about Shell's recent exploration performance, whether more capital will be allocated to exploration beyond 2035, and the plan for improving returns in this area.

Answer

CEO Wael Sawan described exploration performance as mixed, with good commercial discoveries in familiar basins (smaller, high-value tie-backs) but less success in finding bigger plays. He noted a reset of the exploration team and restrained capital allocation, emphasizing that Shell is agnostic between exploration, M&A, and new business development, prioritizing value creation and risk-adjusted returns for capital deployment.

Henry Tarr asked about Shell's recent exploration performance and whether more capital will be allocated towards exploration beyond 2035, along with plans for improving returns in this area.

Answer

CEO Wael Sawan described Shell's exploration report card as mixed: pleased with commercial discoveries in familiar basins that tie back to existing hubs, but less pleased with finding larger plays for new hubs. He emphasized a restrained capital approach to exploration, focusing on value creation rather than an 'open bucket.' Shell is actively pursuing exciting acreage in places like Angola and will pivot capital deployment based on track record and risk-adjusted returns across exploration, M&A, and new business development.

Henry Tarr asked if the strong Q1 performance in Marketing (Mobility and Lubricants) was driven by self-help measures and if there were any signs of improvement for the challenged Sectors and Decarbonization business.

Answer

Executive Sinead Gorman confirmed that strong results in Mobility and Lubricants were driven by self-help, including cost discipline and a focus on premium product margins. She noted the Sectors and Decarbonization business remains in a difficult macro environment, with challenges in areas like Raizen in Brazil, though there are pockets of strength in trading.

Henry Tarr from Berenberg asked about the necessary steps for the YPF Argentina LNG project to reach FID and Eni's comfort with large-scale LNG projects. He also questioned what factors might lead to a reassessment of the share buyback program.

Answer

Guido Brusco, COO of Global Natural Resources, outlined that project configuration, commercial agreements, and financing need to be finalized with YPF, targeting completion by early next year. CEO Claudio Descalzi indicated that given the positive strategic execution and strong KPIs, an improvement to the buyback program could be considered in the coming months.

Henry Tarr from Berenberg asked if Enilive's biofuel manufacturing margins are currently positive or if profits are primarily from the marketing side. He also questioned if the Q1 lease interest payment is a reasonable run-rate for the full year.

Answer

Executive Stefano Ballista confirmed that the contribution margin from biofuels is slightly positive, aided by an integrated model that optimizes value. Executive Francesco Gattei advised that lease payments are expected to increase through the year as new projects start, making the Q1 figure a bit light as a run-rate.

Henry Tarr of Berenberg inquired about the rationale for increasing the share buyback to €1.6 billion and sought confirmation of the policy to distribute 60% of cash flow above the €14 billion plan. He also asked about the competitive edge provided by Eni's new HPC6 supercomputer.

Answer

Executive Francesco Gattei attributed the buyback increase to a combination of strong operational performance and a more supportive macro environment. Guido Brusco, Head of Natural Resources, explained that the new supercomputer, with a CapEx of €140 million, provides a significant competitive advantage in exploration by enhancing geological and reservoir modeling when combined with Eni's proprietary algorithms and skilled personnel.

Henry Tarr questioned the robustness of the Borouge Group International (BGI) floor dividend, asking how resilient it is to macroeconomic changes and what specific events could put the dividend at risk.

Answer

CFO Reinhard Florey expressed strong confidence in the floor dividend, explaining that it is designed to hold up even in riskier scenarios and is not a current concern. He emphasized that BGI's global footprint provides resilience, allowing it to leverage strengths in various regional markets. He also noted that the current tariff environment is not seen as adverse to BGI's business model, particularly for its Middle East exports to Asia.

Henry Tarr asked for an update on Russian gas deliveries and the flexibility of new pipeline rights, specifically if higher costs could be passed to customers when switching to LNG. He also questioned OMV's confidence in the SAF and HVO market outlook, given the significant new capacity being built across Europe.

Answer

CEO Alfred Stern stated that OMV can now supply all its customers with non-Russian gas and that prices are determined by regional hubs, not OMV's supply source. He affirmed confidence in the SAF/HVO outlook, explaining that legally mandated demand increases and penalties for non-compliance are expected to create a market shortage after 2027, which will support a price premium despite new capacity additions.

Henry Tarr of Berenberg asked for an update on Russian gas deliveries and the flexibility of OMV's newly secured pipeline rights. He also questioned OMV's confidence in the SAF/HVO market being tight after 2027, considering the significant new capacity being built across Europe.

Answer

CEO Alfred Stern confirmed OMV can now supply all customers with non-Russian gas if needed, making it independent of Russian supplies to fulfill obligations. He noted the take-or-pay contract with Gazprom remains, and arbitrations are ongoing. Regarding SAF/HVO, he reiterated confidence that EU mandates will drive strong demand, leading to a market shortage after 2027 despite new capacity, which will support a significant price premium for these fuels.