Hillary Cacanando

Hillary Cacanando from Deutsche Bank asked about any potential further impact from the Azul bankruptcy and sought commentary on reports of young A320neo aircraft being parted out for their engines.

Answer

CFO Pete Juhas stated that AerCap is fully provisioned for the Azul restructuring and does not anticipate any further material impact. CEO Aengus Kelly clarified the reports on aircraft teardowns, stating that while two A220 aircraft in Egypt were being disassembled, the A320neos in question were only having their engines removed to support Pratt & Whitney's customer obligations, with the airframes themselves remaining intact.

Hillary Cacanando asked about demand trends in light of U.S. airlines cutting capacity and what indicators would signal concern for AerCap. She also questioned the long-term portfolio strategy, asking if the 'barbell' approach of selling older aircraft would be sustainable as the fleet's average technology level increases.

Answer

CEO Aengus Kelly stated that short-term airline capacity adjustments don't affect long-term fleet planning, citing a recent multi-year extension for 26 mid-life aircraft in North America as evidence of continued demand. Regarding portfolio strategy, he explained it is a continuous cycle. Today's new-tech aircraft, like early A320neos and 787s, will become the mid-life assets of the late 2020s, ensuring the 'barbell' strategy of managing assets across their life cycle remains central to their approach.

Hillary Cacanando asked about the long-term sustainability of the robust aircraft sales environment once OEM production normalizes and questioned the drivers behind the elevated leasing expenses in Q4 2024.

Answer

CEO Aengus Kelly stated he believes the aircraft shortage will persist for years due to production challenges and the lower in-service time of new-tech aircraft, ensuring continued demand for used planes. CFO Pete Juhas explained that Q4 leasing expenses were slightly higher but represent a reasonable run rate for 2025, attributing the fluctuations to the timing of various events.

Hillary Cacanando inquired about the $140 million credit loss provision, asking if it was tied to the Azul restructuring and if further impairments were expected. She also asked at what point the Boeing strike could become harmful beyond just delivery delays.

Answer

CEO Aengus Kelly confirmed the provision was for the Azul exposure, calling it a proactive measure for a legacy COVID receivable. CFO Pete Juhas added that they believe it is fully provided for. Regarding the strike, Kelly warned of unforeseen consequences for the in-service fleet due to Boeing's critical role in aftermarket parts and support.

Hillary Cacanando asked for details on the drivers behind the 2026 guidance, including new customers, existing customer growth, PMA contracts, and acquisitions like ATOPS. She also inquired about the margin impact and EBITDA contribution from the Finnair contract.

Answer

Joe Adams, Chairman and CEO of FTAI Aviation, attributed 2026 guidance to both volume and margin growth. Volume is driven by a 33% production increase from new and larger orders from existing customers. Margin growth to 40% is expected from parts acquisition strategies, imminent PMA approval, used serviceable material, and expanded repair capabilities. David Moreno, COO of FTAI Aviation, stated the Finnair contract is in line with other large programs, covering their entire fleet of 36 engines and providing cost savings and flexibility.

Hillary Cacanando requested a detailed breakdown of the drivers behind the 2026 guidance upsell, including new/existing customers, PMA, ATOPS, and the joint venture, and inquired about the margin impact or EBITDA contribution from the Finnair contract.

Answer

Joe Adams, Chairman and CEO, attributed the guidance increase to both volume and margin. Volume growth is driven by a 33% production increase from new and larger orders from existing customers. Margin growth to 40% is expected from parts acquisition strategies, imminent PMA Part Number 3 approval, used serviceable material, and expanded repair capabilities from acquisitions like Pacific Aerodynamic and Bauer. David Moreno, COO, stated that the Finnair program's margins are in line with other large programs, covering 36 engines and providing cost savings and flexibility through pre-positioned serviceable engines.

Hillary Cacanando questioned if FTAI would revise its guidance of 100 modules per quarter given the production ramp-up and also asked for an update on insurance recoveries related to Russian assets.

Answer

CEO Joseph Adams clarified that the 100-module guidance was for the Montreal facility alone and that total network capacity will exceed 200 modules per quarter. COO David Moreno added that Montreal is expected to produce 90-100 modules in Q2. On insurance, Adams confirmed a $30 million recovery in Q1, a committed $24 million for Q2, and approximately $100 million in remaining claims to be settled.

Hillary Cacanando requested details on the structure of the Strategic Capital Initiative (SCI), including asset ownership, residual value risk, and expected LP returns. She also asked about the new fee revenues from SCI, such as the structure of management and incentive fees.

Answer

CEO Joe Adams outlined the SCI's $4 billion structure: ~70% debt and 30% equity, with FTAI contributing 20% of the equity. He clarified that the partnership legally owns the assets and assumes the residual value risk, but declined to comment on specific LP returns. CFO Eun Nam explained that FTAI will earn pro-rata equity income, a management fee, and potential incentive fees based on performance hurdles. Adams added that the fee structures are in line with market standards but are not being publicly disclosed.

Hillary Cacanando from Deutsche Bank questioned the sequential decline in the Aerospace segment's EBITDA margin from 37% to 34% and asked if the projected 100 modules per quarter in 2025 includes capacity freed up from expiring contracts.

Answer

CEO Joe Adams explained the margin dip was due to inheriting low-margin legacy contracts from the FTAI Canada acquisition, which negatively impacted margins by 200-300 basis points. He confirmed these contracts are short-lived and will run off by year-end. Adams also affirmed that the plan to reach 100 modules per quarter involves repurposing the workforce from these legacy contracts to focus on higher-value CFM56 work, effectively tripling productivity with a similar headcount.

Hillary Cacanando of Deutsche Bank inquired about the impact of improving OEM production on engine lease rates and whether they are nearing a peak. She also asked for commentary on the trend of parting out very young aircraft for their engines and if this environment is beneficial for Willis Lease Finance.

Answer

CEO Austin Willis responded that lease rates have stabilized at high levels, increasing 9% year-over-year, and he does not anticipate near-term negative pressure. He explained that the company's portfolio is well-positioned with 54% in next-generation equipment to serve the growing fleet of new aircraft. Willis confirmed the trend of using engines from young aircraft to support fleets, viewing it as a positive indicator of the significant demand for engines in the marketplace.

Hillary Cacanando asked about the direct impact of potential tariffs on imported parts for WLFC's maintenance services and the secondary effects on the market values and lease rates of its existing engine portfolio if tariffs were to escalate.

Answer

President Austin Willis stated that direct tariff impacts have been 'de minimis' thus far, as the company sources many parts internally. He acknowledged that escalating tariffs could lead to asset value inflation for the existing portfolio, as new engines would become more expensive, potentially making incumbent assets in certain jurisdictions more valuable.

Hillary Cacanando from Deutsche Bank asked for the outlook on end-of-lease revenue for next year, given the high lease extension rates. She also inquired if the significant increases in extension rates, some previously cited as up to 50% higher, are still being observed and asked about the typical duration of these extensions.

Answer

EVP & CFO Gregory Willis suggested that end-of-lease revenue in 2026 would likely be similar to 2025 levels, assuming the strong market environment persists. He confirmed that extension rates achieved in the quarter were again higher than the previous rates. CEO John Plueger added that a positive trend is seeing wide-body extensions now commanding longer terms in the four-to-five-year range, similar to single-aisle aircraft.

Hillary Cacanando asked about the priority for capital allocation among buybacks, M&A, and dividends, and whether airlines might seek assistance from Air Lease to mitigate potential tariff impacts.

Answer

CEO & President John Plueger explained that all capital allocation options are being considered, including organic/inorganic growth and share repurchases, but a decision awaits further clarity on insurance recoveries. He also stated he does not expect airlines to ask for help with tariffs, as it's their contractual responsibility and demand remains very strong.

Hillary Cacanando of Deutsche Bank asked about the potential impact of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and how interest rate changes might affect the 2-3 year timeline for achieving mid-teen returns.

Answer

CEO John Plueger declined to comment on the Russia-Ukraine situation. Regarding returns, CFO Greg Willis explained the mid-teen target is a longer-term goal and its timing is influenced by interest rate movements. Executive Chairman Steven Udvar-Hazy added that rate changes primarily affect new borrowings, as most of their debt is fixed-rate, moderating the immediate impact on overall funding costs.

Hillary Cacanando of Deutsche Bank asked if rising lease rates could reach a point of airline pushback and questioned Air Lease's perspective on M&A and industry consolidation.

Answer

CEO John Plueger asserted that airlines will continue to take aircraft despite rising lease rates, as leasing is a small portion of their overall costs and demand remains high. Regarding M&A, Executive Chairman Steven Udvar-Hazy noted that past opportunities have not been accretive, as Air Lease's unique, discounted order book cannot be replicated. Mr. Plueger added that the company continues to evaluate all opportunities and expects natural industry consolidation to continue.

Hillary Cacanando of Deutsche Bank inquired about the strategic opportunities for SkyWest's unassigned CRJ200 fleet and sought details on the ongoing MRO challenges, asking about their duration and whether they were primarily related to engines or airframes.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Wade Steel explained that the CRJ200 fleet offers flexibility, with priorities being to fly them for major partners, use them for pro rate flying, or lease them out and consume parts. He clarified that current MRO challenges are mainly with CRJ airframes, not engines, as SkyWest had proactively managed engine maintenance. The purchase of used aircraft is intended to de-risk this airframe parts situation.

Hillary Cacanando of Deutsche Bank, on behalf of Mike Linenberg, asked about the weakness in 'Other revenue' despite new bag fees and inquired about fleet planning, specifically the potential for further increases in 2025 aircraft deliveries from Boeing.

Answer

COO Andrew Watterson attributed the 'Other revenue' weakness to the loyalty program's recent performance but expects improvement from the newly enhanced Chase co-brand credit card portfolio. President & CEO Bob Jordan added that they are seeing positive trends from Boeing, which is holding a stable production rate, leading to the increased delivery forecast. CFO Tom Doxey reiterated that any incremental deliveries provide fleet flexibility, enabling more aircraft sales.