Hoang Nguyen

Hoang Nguyen asked about the current consumer softness compared to a year ago, seeking clarification on why PROG Holdings has not implemented additional tightening measures despite existing pressures, and inquired about potential catch-up share buybacks in Q4.

Answer

Steve Michaels, President and CEO, explained that the portfolio is healthier now due to previous tightening actions in late 2024 and Q1 2025. He noted that while delinquencies are elevated, changes in approval processes have prevented negative outcomes, allowing for elevated DQs without necessitating further tightening. Brian Garner, CFO, added that this dynamic is reflected in the 80 basis points of gross margin expansion. Michaels referred back to the company's capital allocation priorities and declined to comment on specific future repurchase plans.

Hoang Nguyen asked about the difference in consumer softness now compared to a year ago, specifically why PROG Holdings has not implemented additional tightening despite current pressures. He also inquired about plans for the VIVE sales proceeds, asking if a 'catch-up' buyback should be expected in Q4.

Answer

Steve Michaels, President and CEO, explained that the portfolio is in a healthier position now due to tightening actions taken in late 2024 and Q1 2025. While delinquencies (DQs) are elevated, changes in approvals and amounts have prevented them from negatively impacting overall portfolio yield or outcomes. He stated that the company monitors a 'mosaic' of indicators and is poised to act with very dialed-in adjustments if needed, but no broad additional tightening has been necessary. Regarding VIVE proceeds, Michaels referred back to the previously outlined three-pillared capital allocation strategy, declining to provide specific guidance on future repurchases.

Hoang Nguyen of TD Cowen asked what conditions would be necessary for the company to unwind its underwriting tightening. He also inquired about the competitive landscape for Four's subscription-based BNPL product.

Answer

CEO Steven Michaels stated that a full reversal of underwriting tightening is not planned, as it is the reason for the strong portfolio performance. Any loosening would be incremental and data-driven, not preemptive. Regarding Four, he acknowledged strong competitors but noted the industry has largely converged on a subscription model. He emphasized Four's direct-to-consumer focus and its growing profitability, suggesting its value is under-recognized.

Hoang Nguyen asked for a breakdown of the revised guidance drivers, specifically the impact of the Q1 GMV miss versus future expectations, and inquired about the nature of conversations with retail partners regarding affordability and tariffs.

Answer

CFO Brian Garner explained the guidance revision was primarily driven by the Q1 GMV miss and the prolonged impact of demand headwinds, as early-year GMV has a more pronounced P&L impact. CEO Steven Michaels added that they did not provide a specific GMV guide for the rest of the year due to a lack of clarity. Regarding partners, Michaels described conversations as very positive, citing a new e-commerce integration with a national partner, and noted that while tariffs are a focus for retailers, PROG is positioned as a solution to help them navigate the challenges.

Hoang Nguyen asked for a deeper dive into the assumptions regarding the Big Lots bankruptcy, including any potential volume from surviving stores or closeout sales. He also questioned the expected degree of gross margin erosion in 2025 resulting from the loss of the higher-margin Big Lots portfolio.

Answer

CEO Steven Michaels explained that the company saw no material GMV boost from closeout sales and is not assuming any significant volume from potentially surviving Big Lots stores in its base case. He emphasized the strategy to redirect Big Lots' repeat customers to other partners over time. CFO Brian Garner added that the 2025 guidance implies a Progressive Leasing margin of 10.9% to 11.2%, reflecting the Big Lots impact and continued SG&A investments in technology and growth initiatives.

Hoang Nguyen of TD Cowen asked what factors would be needed to drive charge-offs toward the midpoint of the 6-8% target range. He also inquired about the drivers for the stronger-than-seasonal implied Q4 EPS guidance and the promotional outlook for the holidays.

Answer

CEO Steve Michaels responded that the company is comfortable operating within the 6-8% write-off range and does not target a specific midpoint, as the outcome is fluid based on business mix and consumer health. CFO Brian Garner attributed the strong Q4 EPS outlook to higher revenue from robust GMV growth, a sequential decrease in write-offs, and disciplined spending. Michaels added that the holiday season is expected to be highly promotional, but the company is not forecasting a major rebound in underlying consumer demand.

Hoang Nguyen questioned what macroeconomic or internal conditions would be required for the company to fully reverse its credit tightening measures and asked about the competitive landscape for Four's subscription-based BNPL product.

Answer

CEO Steven Michaels stated that a full reversal of underwriting tightening is not planned and any loosening would be incremental, pending significant improvements in consumer health data. On Four, he acknowledged the industry has moved toward a subscription model, which has seen strong adoption, and noted Four's direct-to-consumer approach is a key differentiator.

Hoang Nguyen asked for an update on the plan to accelerate revenue growth at Brigit and questioned whether cross-selling between Brigit and the lease-to-own businesses could reduce the overall cyclicality of Upbound's model.

Answer

CFO Fahmi Karam confirmed that Brigit's growth is on track with the initial 2025 and 2026 plans, supported by a strong macro backdrop and a pipeline of new products. CEO Mitchell E. Fadel added that cross-selling marketing efforts have already begun. Mr. Karam also noted that all of Upbound's businesses are designed to be countercyclical, as both lease-to-own and liquidity solutions see increased demand in tougher economic times, making the combined platform highly resilient.

Hoang Nguyen of TD Cowen asked for an update on the Brigit acquisition integration, specifically regarding cash-flow underwriting and the cross-selling roadmap, and also inquired about the merchant pipeline and recent wins at Acima.

Answer

CFO Fahmi Karam stated that while it is early, the immediate priority for the Brigit integration is cross-marketing to the existing customer bases, with the more complex cash-flow underwriting integration to follow. CEO Mitchell E. Fadel added that cross-selling could begin post-tax season and represents potential upside to 2025 guidance. Fadel also praised Acima's sales team for achieving 10% location growth in 2024 and noted the pipeline remains strong, driven by superior technology, integration speed, and service offerings.

Hoang Nguyen asked which customer segment is contributing to the rise in losses and delinquencies and requested more color on the $7.5 million estimated expense for legal settlements.

Answer

CEO Mitchell E. Fadel clarified that the loss uptick occurred in the Rent-A-Center segment, as Acima's losses are actually trending down due to the trade-down effect. CFO Fahmi Karam explained that the $7.5 million is a required accounting accrual for three outstanding legal matters (CFPB, NY AG, Multistate AG) now that a settlement is considered probable and estimable, but could not provide further specifics.