Sign in

    Ian Gillies

    Research Analyst at Stifel

    Ian Gillies is Managing Director and equity research analyst at Stifel Canada, specializing in diversified industrials and alternative energy companies, with extensive coverage of firms such as Aecon Group and AtkinsRéalis. He covers approximately 55 stocks in the Basic Materials sector and maintains a reported success rate of 47.14% as tracked by TipRanks, earning industry distinction as a TopGun Sell-Side Analyst in 2022. Gillies began his analyst career at Thomas Weisel Partners in 2008, joined FirstEnergy Capital as a Research Associate in 2010, and moved to Stifel Canada in 2015 following its acquisition of FirstEnergy, after serving as Manager of Capital Markets at Calfrac Well Services. He holds an MSc in International Securities, Investment and Banking from the University of Reading and a BBA from Acadia University, and is FINRA registered with securities research credentials.

    Ian Gillies's questions to Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) leadership

    Ian Gillies's questions to Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Inquired about additional liquidity levers beyond government support, the outlook for production and shipments if tariffs remain high, and whether recent Canadian import restrictions are improving domestic plate pricing.

    Answer

    The company is focused on working capital optimization as an additional liquidity lever. They do not expect to curtail production further, with shipments likely to remain around Q2 levels. They have not yet seen a positive pricing impact from the Canadian government's new import restrictions.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Ian Gillies's questions to Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ian Gillies from Stifel Financial Corp. asked about additional liquidity levers beyond existing measures, the potential for further production curtailments if tariffs persist, and whether new Canadian import restrictions were improving domestic plate pricing.

    Answer

    CFO Rajat Marwah identified working capital optimization as a key additional liquidity lever, expecting it to become a source of cash by year-end. He also projected that shipment volumes would likely remain around Q2 levels, absent major shifts from trade discussions. CEO Michael Garcia added that while the company provides feedback to the government, they have not yet seen the intended positive effect on pricing from recent import measures but expect the government to take further action.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Ian Gillies's questions to Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Ian Gillies asked for details on the EAF project delay, the critical path to first production, the timeline for the second furnace, and questions regarding liquidity, including the ability to draw on the credit facility with negative EBITDA and any plans for incremental debt.

    Answer

    CEO Michael Garcia attributed the EAF project's shift from a Q1 to a Q2 start to harsh winter weather impacting the commissioning of critical systems, and he targeted the end of 2025 for the second furnace. CFO Rajat Marwah clarified that the credit facility can be drawn with negative EBITDA, with a covenant test only on the final 10%. He stated that while all scenarios are under review, the company sees no immediate need for incremental debt due to sufficient liquidity and is actively engaged with the government on support programs.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Ian Gillies's questions to Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Inquired about the specifics of the EAF project delay, the timeline for the second furnace, and details regarding the company's liquidity, including access to credit facilities and potential need for new debt or government loans.

    Answer

    The EAF delay into Q2 was primarily due to harsh winter weather impacting the commissioning of critical systems. The second furnace is targeted for the end of 2025. The company can draw on its credit facility even with negative EBITDA (except for the last 10%) and currently sees no need for incremental debt, though government programs remain an option. A net release of working capital is still expected for the full year.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Ian Gillies's questions to Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Asked for clarification on the breakeven price point with tariffs, the potential for increasing plate production, the possibility of government support beyond tariffs, the company's strategy for furnace utilization and inventory management if tariffs worsen, and anticipated carbon tax rebates.

    Answer

    The company clarified it would be profitable, not just breakeven, at $950 CRU with tariffs, as its HRC cost is $650. There is a significant opportunity to increase plate sales within Canada due to new retaliatory tariffs on U.S. steel. The company is in discussions with the government about potential support. They will not stockpile coil but will build plate slab inventory to support sales opportunities. A carbon tax rebate of ~$7.5M is expected soon.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Ian Gillies's questions to Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Ian Gillies of Stifel requested clarification on the profitability of U.S. sales under tariffs, the strategy for increasing plate production, and the potential for additional government support beyond retaliatory tariffs. He also asked about the company's operating strategy for the blast furnace if tariffs worsen and inquired about expected carbon tax rebates.

    Answer

    CFO Rajat Marwah clarified that at current prices, U.S. sales are profitable, not just breakeven, and confirmed a $7.5 million carbon tax rebate is expected. CEO Michael Garcia outlined a plan to ramp up plate production to capture the Canadian market, which is now protected by tariffs. He confirmed that discussions with government officials about further support are ongoing. He also stated the company would not stockpile unsold coil but would build plate slab inventory to support market opportunities.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Ian Gillies's questions to Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Asked about the strategy for the plate mill ramp-up in a weak market, the certainty of the revised EAF project budget, and the expected trend in cost per ton over the next few quarters.

    Answer

    The company is proceeding with the plate ramp-up but is focusing on rebuilding strategic inventory and making process improvements rather than chasing volume in a weak market. The EAF project cost is expected to finish within 5% of the latest budget, with most costs now locked in. Cost per ton is expected to remain stable or trend slightly lower, hovering within a couple of percentage points of the current level, with more significant reductions anticipated once EAF production increases.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Ian Gillies's questions to Algoma Steel Group (ASTL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ian Gillies of Stifel followed up on the plate mill ramp-up, asking if Algoma was considering slowing it down given the current market oversaturation. He also questioned the finality of the updated EAF project budget and inquired about the expected trend for cost per ton in the coming quarters.

    Answer

    CEO Michael Garcia responded that while they are mindful of market conditions, they are using the slow period to rebuild strategic plate inventories and improve rolling profiles, positioning them for when demand returns. On the EAF budget, he expressed high confidence the project will finish within 5% of the latest guidance, as over 90% of the work is now under fixed-price contracts. CFO Rajat Marwah added that cost per ton should trend slightly lower but remain within a couple of percentage points of current levels, influenced by product mix.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI

    Ian Gillies's questions to STANTEC (STN) leadership

    Ian Gillies's questions to STANTEC (STN) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Ian Gillies of Stifel asked if margin expansion in 2025 could be better than average as M&A integrations complete. He also inquired about the new M&A opportunities the ZETCON acquisition has created in Continental Europe.

    Answer

    CFO Theresa B. Jang confirmed that the opportunity for margin expansion in 2025 is strong, driven by the completion of integration work, benefits of scale, and improved utilization as delayed projects ramp up. CEO Gordon Johnston noted that while ZETCON presents good opportunities in Germany, Stantec will not pursue further acquisitions there in 2024, prioritizing the full integration of ZETCON onto its platform first.

    Ask Fintool Equity Research AI