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    Ian Gillies • Stifel

    Ian Gillies's questions to Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) leadership

    Ian Gillies's questions to Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ian Gillies from Stifel Financial Corp. asked about additional liquidity levers beyond existing measures, the potential for further production curtailments if tariffs persist, and whether new Canadian import restrictions were improving domestic plate pricing.

    Answer

    CFO Rajat Marwah identified working capital optimization as a key additional liquidity lever, expecting it to become a source of cash by year-end. He also projected that shipment volumes would likely remain around Q2 levels, absent major shifts from trade discussions. CEO Michael Garcia added that while the company provides feedback to the government, they have not yet seen the intended positive effect on pricing from recent import measures but expect the government to take further action.

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    Ian Gillies's questions to Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Ian Gillies asked for details on the EAF project delay, the critical path to first production, the timeline for the second furnace, and questions regarding liquidity, including the ability to draw on the credit facility with negative EBITDA and any plans for incremental debt.

    Answer

    CEO Michael Garcia attributed the EAF project's shift from a Q1 to a Q2 start to harsh winter weather impacting the commissioning of critical systems, and he targeted the end of 2025 for the second furnace. CFO Rajat Marwah clarified that the credit facility can be drawn with negative EBITDA, with a covenant test only on the final 10%. He stated that while all scenarios are under review, the company sees no immediate need for incremental debt due to sufficient liquidity and is actively engaged with the government on support programs.

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    Ian Gillies's questions to Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Ian Gillies of Stifel requested clarification on the profitability of U.S. sales under tariffs, the strategy for increasing plate production, and the potential for additional government support beyond retaliatory tariffs. He also asked about the company's operating strategy for the blast furnace if tariffs worsen and inquired about expected carbon tax rebates.

    Answer

    CFO Rajat Marwah clarified that at current prices, U.S. sales are profitable, not just breakeven, and confirmed a $7.5 million carbon tax rebate is expected. CEO Michael Garcia outlined a plan to ramp up plate production to capture the Canadian market, which is now protected by tariffs. He confirmed that discussions with government officials about further support are ongoing. He also stated the company would not stockpile unsold coil but would build plate slab inventory to support market opportunities.

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    Ian Gillies's questions to Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Ian Gillies of Stifel followed up on the plate mill ramp-up, asking if Algoma was considering slowing it down given the current market oversaturation. He also questioned the finality of the updated EAF project budget and inquired about the expected trend for cost per ton in the coming quarters.

    Answer

    CEO Michael Garcia responded that while they are mindful of market conditions, they are using the slow period to rebuild strategic plate inventories and improve rolling profiles, positioning them for when demand returns. On the EAF budget, he expressed high confidence the project will finish within 5% of the latest guidance, as over 90% of the work is now under fixed-price contracts. CFO Rajat Marwah added that cost per ton should trend slightly lower but remain within a couple of percentage points of current levels, influenced by product mix.

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    Ian Gillies's questions to Stantec Inc (STN) leadership

    Ian Gillies's questions to Stantec Inc (STN) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Ian Gillies of Stifel asked if margin expansion in 2025 could be better than average as M&A integrations complete. He also inquired about the new M&A opportunities the ZETCON acquisition has created in Continental Europe.

    Answer

    CFO Theresa B. Jang confirmed that the opportunity for margin expansion in 2025 is strong, driven by the completion of integration work, benefits of scale, and improved utilization as delayed projects ramp up. CEO Gordon Johnston noted that while ZETCON presents good opportunities in Germany, Stantec will not pursue further acquisitions there in 2024, prioritizing the full integration of ZETCON onto its platform first.

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