Ignacio Cerezo Olmos

Ignacio Cerezo Olmos requested details on how the 15% return on capital invested (ROIC) was calculated. He also asked for confirmation of the distribution policy or annual payout embedded in the 20% ROTE target by 2028, and if Santander foresees the possibility of having to raise its offer for Webster, and how they would respond.

Answer

Ana Botín, Executive Chair, José García Cantera, CFO, and Rahul Sinha, Head of Investor Relations for Santander, stated that they do not consider raising the offer, believing it to be a balanced price. Regarding the 15% ROIC, Mr. Cantera and Mr. Sinha explained it is a standard cash-on-cash, three-year return on capital invested calculation, offering to provide detailed calculations. For the distribution policy, Mr. Sinha reiterated the 50% payout and the application of capital hierarchy for CET1 above 13% (expected in 2027/2028), with no more bolt-on acquisitions, and more details to be shared at Investor Day.

Ignacio Cerezo Olmos asked about the timing of the extraordinary capital distribution for 2025-26, the fully loaded capital number for the quarter, and for an update on the bank's P&L foreign exchange hedging.

Answer

Executive Hector Blas Grisi Checa indicated that any extraordinary capital distribution is more likely to occur towards 2026, after regulatory impacts are absorbed. CFO José Antonio García Cantera estimated the fully loaded capital impact at the low end of a 25-45 basis point range. He also confirmed that for 2025, expected profits from all countries, excluding Argentina, are hedged, and the capital ratio is always fully hedged.

Ignacio Cerezo Olmos of UBS asked for an update on the timeline and drivers for achieving the 15% RoTE target in the U.S. He also requested color on asset quality trends in the U.S. auto loan business, specifically regarding delinquencies.

Answer

CEO Héctor Grisi stated that the 15% RoTE target for the U.S. is expected more towards the end of 2025, driven by investments in Consumer, CIB, and domestic Private Banking. On asset quality, he noted the U.S. labor market remains strong, delinquencies are behaving better than pre-COVID levels, and the cost of risk is expected to remain stable at around 2%.

Asked for confirmation on Brazil's NII outlook for Q4, the reason for the decline in U.S. coverage ratio, and the possibility of increased shareholder returns in 2024.

Answer

The bank reiterated that Brazil's NII will improve in Q4 and continue an upward trend into the second half of 2024. The U.S. coverage decline was due to normal seasonality and specific charges that are expected to normalize. Any decision on increasing shareholder returns for 2024 is up to the Board.

Ignacio Cerezo Olmos of UBS asked about the outlook for the customer spread in Mexico, which has been compressing, in a scenario where interest rates decline to around 8%.

Answer

Executive Onur Genç stated that BBVA does not provide guidance on quarterly spreads. However, he provided the bank's official sensitivity metric, clarifying that a 100 basis point decline in the Mexican peso interest rate curve would have a 1.3% negative impact on the group's Net Interest Income (NII).

Ignacio Cerezo Olmos of UBS questioned the sustainability of the recent pickup in mortgage demand and asked for the year-end CET1 outlook, including whether the target for distributions might need to rise due to the new counter-cyclical buffer.

Answer

CEO Gonzalo Gortázar argued that mortgage demand is structural and sustainable, driven by fundamentals like household formation. On capital, CFO Javier Pano acknowledged the incoming buffer but suggested the bank's strong profitability and ample MDA buffer mean it is unlikely they will need to pass the full impact into their internal targets, with a final decision to be announced in November.

Ignacio Cerezo Olmos of UBS asked for visibility on the sustainability of the pickup in mortgage demand and whether aggressive pricing poses a risk. He also inquired about the expected year-end CET1 level and if the bank might need to raise its capital target for distributions due to the countercyclical buffer.

Answer

CEO Gonzalo Gortázar expressed confidence in the structural demand for mortgages, driven by household formation and immigration, and noted the Q3 pipeline remains strong. CFO Javier Pano addressed the countercyclical buffer, stating that while a final decision will be made for the November Investor Day, the bank would likely not need to pass the full requirement into its internal targets due to its ample starting MDA buffer and strong profitability.

Ignacio Cerezo Olmos asked for a breakdown of banking fees and for guidance on where the customer spread might settle in a more normalized rate environment, questioning if deposit and lending betas would differ on the way down.

Answer

CEO Gonzalo Gortázar provided figures for maintenance fees, expecting them to fall to €300 million this year from €360 million last year, but then stabilize. On the customer spread, he suggested asset-side betas could improve as the mortgage market normalizes, contrasting current mortgage pricing in Spain versus the more dynamic Portuguese market to illustrate how market conditions affect rate pass-through.