Ignacio Ulargui

Ignacio Ulargui asked for an explanation behind the stronger capital build-up of 70 basis points projected for 2026, questioning if it was due to more SRTs or improved profitability. He also sought clarification on whether potential revenue and funding synergies from Webster were incorporated into the 70% EPS accretion forecast.

Answer

Ana Botín, Executive Chair, and José García Cantera, CFO of Santander, confirmed that no funding or revenue synergies are incorporated into the 70% EPS accretion, indicating they represent potential upside. Regarding capital generation, Mr. Cantera stated the 70 basis points for 2026 are consistent with 2025, factoring in 20-25 basis points of regulatory/supervisory headwinds, the same level of asset rotation as 2025, and higher profitability.

Ignacio Ulargui asked for an explanation behind the stronger capital buildup of 70 basis points expected in 2026 before the transaction. He also sought clarification on whether funding synergies are incorporated into the projected 7-8% EPS accretion.

Answer

Ana Botín (Executive Chair) confirmed that neither funding synergies nor revenue synergies are included in the 7-8% EPS accretion, considering them as potential upside. José Antonio García Cantera (CFO) explained that the 70 basis points capital generation for 2026 is consistent with 2025, factoring in 20-25 basis points of regulatory/supervisory headwinds and similar asset rotation, with higher profitability contributing to the capital generation.

Ignacio Ulargui from BNP Paribas asked for an explanation behind the stronger capital buildup of 70 basis points expected in 2026 before the Webster transaction, questioning if it's due to more SRTs or improved profitability. He also sought clarification on whether funding synergies were incorporated into the 7-8% EPS accretion guidance.

Answer

Ana Botín (Executive Chair, Banco Santander) confirmed that no funding synergies or revenue synergies are incorporated into the EPS accretion guidance, representing potential upside. José Antonio García Cantera (CFO, Banco Santander) explained that the 70 basis points capital generation for 2026 is consistent with 2025, factoring in 20-25 basis points of regulatory/supervisory headwinds, the same amount of asset rotation, and higher profitability.

Ignacio Ulargui asked for an explanation behind the stronger capital build-up of 70 basis points expected in 2026 before the transaction completion, and clarified whether potential funding synergies from Webster are included in the 70% EPS accretion guidance.

Answer

Executive Chair Ana Botín confirmed that no funding or revenue synergies are incorporated into the EPS accretion, representing potential upside. CFO José García Cantera explained that the 70 basis points capital generation in 2026 is consistent with 2025, factoring in 20-25 basis points of regulatory headwinds, similar asset rotation, and higher profitability, with all other components remaining very similar.

Ignacio Ulargui inquired about the future direction of group-level costs under the 'One Transformation' initiative and whether declining costs could be sustained. He also asked about the potential for stronger capital generation and incremental shareholder distributions.

Answer

CEO Héctor Grisi Checa reiterated the guidance for lower absolute costs in 2025, noting that current investments are transitional and that the full benefits of platform consolidation are yet to be realized. CFO José García Cantera stated that capital generation typically accelerates in the second half of the year and that excess capital above the 13% CET1 target would be considered for share buybacks, subject to regulatory and board approval.

Ignacio Ulargui asked for more detail on the expected evolution of group costs throughout the year and the performance outlook for the Digital Consumer Bank (DCB) in Europe, given its challenging first quarter.

Answer

Executive Hector Blas Grisi Checa reiterated the guidance for lower costs in current euros for 2025 compared to 2024, attributing this to operating leverage from the bank's transformation strategy. Regarding DCB Europe, he explained that while NII remains strong, fee income was impacted by a one-off regulatory change in Germany. CFO José Antonio García Cantera added that the fee line has now been rebased and the unit's return on tangible equity was in the double digits.

Ignacio Ulargui of BNP Paribas inquired about the outlook for fee generation, asking if growth would accelerate driven by CIB and Wealth Management, and whether there were any one-offs in the strong U.S. fee performance. He also asked about the expected pace of organic capital generation.

Answer

CEO Héctor Grisi confirmed a strong outlook for fees, expecting mid-to-high single-digit growth for 2024, driven by transactionality and global business growth, and stated there were no one-offs in the U.S. CFO José García Cantera added that the bank expects to generate around 15 basis points of organic capital per quarter post-dividends and projects a year-end CET1 ratio of 12.40% to 12.50%.

Questioned Brazil's performance, asking about changes in risk appetite and the outlook for 2024. Also inquired about the drivers of cost growth in Spain and the expected synergies from the One Santander transformation.

Answer

In Brazil, the mix has shifted to more secure loans, and while risk appetite is cautiously increasing, the main driver for future growth will be falling interest rates, with the second half of 2024 expected to be much better. The cost growth in Spain is due to investments in the One Transformation program, which involves simplification and automation, and is expected to yield benefits and controlled costs in the coming months.

Ignacio Ulargui of BNP Paribas questioned the timing of the share buyback relative to the Sabadell offer and asked for more detail on Mexico's lending growth prospects, particularly the expected drivers between corporate and consumer lending.

Answer

CEO Onur Genç stated the share buyback would commence after the Sabadell expectation period concludes. Global Head of Finance Luisa Gómez Bravo noted Mexico's loan growth remains solid (2% QoQ ex-FX), driven by retail, and that the outlook is supportive despite NII pressure from rate cuts. Genç added that while growth will be balanced, the bank aims to gain market share in the enterprise segment.

Ignacio Ulargui from BNP Paribas asked for details on the corporate loan growth in Mexico, seeking to understand if the growth is being driven more by long-term CapEx or by short-term OpEx and working capital needs.

Answer

CEO Onur Genç clarified that while there is some natural long-term growth, the recent surge in Mexico's corporate loan book is primarily driven by short-term working capital financing. He explained that many clients are building up inventory in anticipation of potential tariff impacts, which has increased their short-term lending needs.

Ignacio Ulargui from BNP Paribas asked for more detail on the drivers of corporate loan growth in Mexico, specifically whether it was driven more by long-term CapEx or short-term OpEx and working capital needs.

Answer

CEO Onur Genç clarified that while there is some natural long-term growth, the recent surge in Mexico's corporate loan book is primarily driven by short-term working capital needs. He explained that many clients have been building up inventory in anticipation of tariff discussions, which has increased demand for short-term lending.

Ignacio Ulargui of BNP Paribas asked about the competitive landscape for loan growth in Spain, wanting to know which segments are expected to be the most competitive.

Answer

Executive Onur Genç identified mortgages as the most competitive and price-sensitive segment, where BBVA is currently cautious. He contrasted this with consumer lending, where the bank expects strong performance driven by new customer acquisition, and the enterprise segment, where BBVA is actively pushing to increase its market share.

Ignacio Ulargui from BNP Paribas questioned the drivers of NPL formation, the outlook for capital distributions given the CET1 ratio is above target, and the expected NII repricing dynamics in Portugal.

Answer

Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche (executive) stated that NPL inflows are at historical lows, reflecting a true positive trend, and that the lack of portfolio disposals in the quarter affected outflow figures. Javier Pano Riera (executive) reiterated that the capital distribution plan remains unchanged, with the 12.25% threshold for this year. For Portugal, he explained that while the cost of interest-bearing deposits is similar to Spain, their weight is higher, but the NII trough should not be far from the consolidated group's trough in H2.

Ignacio Ulargui of BNP Paribas Exane questioned whether the new lending demand is accretive to current profitability targets and asked for the outlook on wholesale funding costs in a lower interest rate environment.

Answer

CEO Gonzalo Gortázar confirmed that new loan growth is accretive to profitability due to the bank's efficient platform. CFO Javier Pano explained that since wholesale funding is swapped to floating rates, its cost will decline with the yield curve. He also identified maturing ALCO portfolio assets and deposit hedging as further tailwinds for NII.

Ignacio Ulargui of BNP Paribas Exane questioned whether the new lending business is accretive to current profitability targets given the stronger demand. He also asked about the expected evolution of wholesale funding costs in a lower interest rate environment.

Answer

CEO Gonzalo Gortázar confirmed that new loan growth is definitely seen as accretive to current profitability, leveraging the bank's large and efficient platform. CFO Javier Pano explained that wholesale funding costs are expected to trend down as the entire stock is swapped to floating rates, which will reprice lower. He also noted that maturing ALCO portfolio assets and new hedges on core deposits will provide further tailwinds for NII.

Ignacio Ulargui questioned the expected evolution of deposits and its implications for asset management growth. He also asked for an update on the ALCO portfolio's contribution to NII and its reinvestment strategy for 2025.

Answer

CFO Javier Pano stated that the bank is striking the right balance between growing assets under management and maintaining deposit market share, noting they are near the peak of deposit cost migration. Regarding the ALCO portfolio, he explained the bank is favoring derivatives over bond reinvestments in the short term and highlighted a significant positive impact expected from a low-yield €7 billion maturity next year.

Inquired about the rate assumptions behind the flat NII guidance for 2024, confidence in managing deposit costs, the expected impact of Basel IV, and clarification on a one-off income item in Portugal.

Answer

The flat NII guidance assumes a flattish loan book, low 20s average deposit beta, and is based on the year-end yield curve. The bank is confident in managing deposit costs downwards with falling rates. Basel IV is expected to have no impact. The income item in Portugal was a non-recurring charge related to the National Guarantee Fund.