Jaafar Mestari

Jaafar Mestari followed up on the 2026 net new business contribution, questioning why the outlook wasn't stronger given the high 2025 KPIs, and also asked if 2026 margins should normalize higher after accounting for exceptional 2025 sales team compensation.

Answer

CFO Jim Tarangelo clarified that large wins like Penn Medicine and the Oakland A's have an annualized impact, but their in-year revenue realization ramps up over time, explaining the timing difference. Regarding margins, he noted that while 2025 had exceptional compensation, 2026 guidance includes additional startup costs for large accounts, which could be around 10 basis points, suggesting a normalized 2025 margin in the 5.4-5.5% range. CEO John Zillmer added that significant corrections new wins are ramping up, and the segment remains a large self-op conversion opportunity.

Jaafar Mestari questioned why the outlook for net new business contribution in 2026 isn't stronger, given the high forward-looking KPIs and the 5.6% net new not being fully reflected in 2025 due to timing.

Answer

CFO Jim Tarangelo clarified that large wins like Penn Medicine, while annualized, start early in 2026 and will ramp up throughout the year, and the Oakland A's contract will have a greater impact in the following fiscal year, explaining the timing difference between annualized and in-year revenue realization. Mestari also asked if 2026 margins should normalize for exceptional Q4 2025 sales team compensation before growing 30-40 basis points. Tarangelo acknowledged that normalizing fiscal 2025 would place margins in the 5.4-5.5% range, and 2026 guidance includes about 10 basis points for startup costs from large account ramps. Mestari further inquired about the corrections segment, asking for an update on the decision-making process and potential big wins. CEO John Zillmer confirmed significant new wins in corrections, ongoing pursuit of additional state systems, and expected continued growth in both correctional feeding and commissary services, highlighting a substantial total addressable market.

Jaafar Mestari of Exane BNP Paribas pressed for details on the wide Q4 guidance, asking what scenario could lead to the high end of the organic growth range and if high revenue would necessarily mean lower profits due to startup costs.

Answer

CFO Jim Tarangelo explained the wide Q4 outlook is due to variables like the potential conversion of large new accounts and MLB playoff performance. CEO John Zillmer reiterated confidence in the full range, stating that while revenue and profit are linked, achieving high-end revenue does not automatically imply low-end profitability.

Jaafar Mestari asked about the credibility of external risks like university funding cuts and, conversely, opportunities from domestic production shifts. He also questioned if there were any recent slowdowns or delays in new business signings due to uncertainty.

Answer

CEO John Zillmer characterized increased U.S. manufacturing as a long-term opportunity and noted that cost pressures in healthcare are a long-standing dynamic. He confirmed that the sales process and close rates remain consistent with historical norms, with no significant delays, expressing high confidence in achieving the full-year 4-5% net new business target.

Jaafar Mestari asked if H2 momentum could begin in Q2, how 2025 compares to an average year for contract renewals, and whether the comprehensive Arizona State University win was new information or already factored into the outlook.

Answer

CEO John Zillmer clarified the ASU win was both a major retention and a new business award, with confirmation received just the day before the call. He also noted that rebid activity is lower this year than last. CFO James Tarangelo stated that Q2's revenue cadence would be similar to Q1's, with the planned acceleration beginning in Q3.

Jaafar Mestari asked about the timing of the $1.4 billion in new business signings in FY24, the reasons for a slight decline in food retention, and the drivers behind the positive like-for-like volume growth assumption in the FY25 guidance.

Answer

CFO Jim Tarangelo stated the new business signings were spread relatively evenly throughout FY24. CEO John Zillmer attributed the retention dip primarily to the major facilities contract exits and one significant international loss, not a broader trend. Tarangelo explained the positive volume outlook is based on continued elevated base business performance, which is trending above historical norms.

Jaafar Mestari from Exane BNP Paribas questioned how fee margins would perform in a flat RevPAR environment and sought clarity on Americas group booking trends, asking if the softness was due to short-lead time bookings or cancellations.

Answer

CFO Michael Glover explained that fee margins would still see strong growth even in a lower RevPAR environment, driven by system growth and sustainable cost savings, with a projected 1-2% cost reduction for the full year. CEO Elie Maalouf added that the company is investing in high-growth opportunities while managing costs. Regarding bookings, Maalouf attributed the Q2 downshift in all business segments, including group, to earlier market turbulence but noted the outlook is now more constructive and stable.

Jaafar Mestari of Exane BNP Paribas questioned how fee margins would perform in a flat RevPAR environment and asked for clarification on Americas group booking trends, particularly the dynamics between long-lead and short-lead time bookings.

Answer

CFO Michael Glover stated that fee margins would still see strong growth even in a lower RevPAR environment, driven by system growth and continued cost savings, with full-year costs expected to be down 1-2%. He noted that of the 390 basis points of margin improvement, 130 came from ancillary fees and 260 from operating leverage. CEO Elie Maalouf added that group bookings, along with other segments, saw a downshift from Q1 to Q2 due to market turbulence but that the outlook is now more constructive and stable.

Jaafar Mestari of BNP Paribas questioned how fee margins would perform in a flat RevPAR environment and sought clarification on Americas group bookings, reconciling previous positive commentary with recent occupancy trends.

Answer

CFO Michael Glover detailed that the group's 390 basis point fee margin improvement was driven by 130 bps from ancillaries and 260 bps from operating leverage, expecting strong full-year margin growth even in a low RevPAR environment. CEO Elie Maalouf attributed the Q2 slowdown in Americas group bookings to market turbulence and calendar shifts, but noted the forward-looking outlook is now more constructive and stable.

Jaafar Mestari confirmed the Q1 EBITDA guidance, asking if it implied growth in subsequent quarters, and inquired about the type of partners sought for international refranchising, including the possibility of local IPOs.

Answer

CFO Jeremiah Ashukian confirmed the pressured Q1 EBITDA guide was due to the Insomnia sale, cyber impacts, expansion costs, and consumer softness, with sequential improvement expected through 2025. CEO Josh Charlesworth described the ideal international partners as scaled, local master franchisees with strong operational and financial backing, similar to existing partners. He added that while nothing is ruled out, there are no immediate plans for local IPOs.

Jaafar Mestari of Exane BNP Paribas requested a breakdown of the H1 2021 cash burn between ongoing operations and one-off payments, asked if historical free cash flow is a reliable indicator for future performance, and inquired about the treatment of AENA's rent proposal in the 2021 guidance.

Answer

CFO Yves Gerster stated the projected H1 cash burn is entirely from ordinary business with no significant one-off MAG true-ups. He noted that future free cash flow at peak profitability should be significantly higher than the historical CHF 350-400 million, driven by CHF 400 million in sustainable cost savings. CEO Julián Díaz added that the guidance assumes full rent payments for its Spanish operations as negotiations with AENA are ongoing.