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    Jacob Aiken-Phillips

    Research Analyst at Melius Research

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips is Vice President of Consumer/Retail Research at Melius Research, specializing in coverage of companies within the packaged food, beverage, and home and personal care sectors. He has analyzed and provided investment research for leading consumer brands, leveraging prior experience as an equity research associate at TD Cowen and Credit Suisse. Aiken-Phillips holds a B.S. in Applied Economics and an MBA from Cornell University, is a CFA Charterholder, and is registered with FINRA with a Series 63 license in New York. His career spans over 14 years in financial services, and he is recognized for rigorous sector analysis and academic distinction, including achieving national ranking as a collegiate heavyweight wrestler.

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to US Foods Holding (USFD) leadership

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to US Foods Holding (USFD) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips from Melius Research asked for more detail on the decision to raise the sales target for the Pronto delivery service, particularly how concerns about cannibalization were addressed. He also inquired about progress toward the company's market share goals.

    Answer

    CEO Dave Flitman explained that the initial cautious rollout of Pronto penetration was to ensure a premium margin profile and avoid cannibalizing the core broadline business. Having confirmed both, the company is now confidently expanding the program. CFO Dirk Locascio clarified that the reported double-digit case growth uplift is on a net basis. Regarding market share, Flitman emphasized it's a 'steady march' of consistent gains, evidenced by 17 and 19 consecutive quarters of share gains in independent restaurants and healthcare, respectively.

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    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to US Foods Holding (USFD) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips inquired about US Foods' ability to moderate CapEx in a downturn, its current capacity for growth, and the impact of automation. He also asked about the M&A environment for acquisitions, given the decision to retain the CHEF'STORE business.

    Answer

    CFO Dirk Locascio stated that the company is actively investing in expansions and a new semi-automated facility, ensuring it is not capacity constrained. Regarding M&A, he noted that the environment for tuck-in acquisitions has not changed and that the team continues to actively manage its pipeline of opportunities.

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    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to US Foods Holding (USFD) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips of Melius Research asked about the forward outlook for Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) over the next three years. He also inquired about the company's perspective on labor inflation and availability, particularly in light of recent industry union activity.

    Answer

    CFO Dirk Locascio stated that the expectation is for ROIC to continue to increase, driven by responsible capital deployment and earnings growth, which is a component of long-term compensation. Regarding labor, he noted that the company is fully staffed and that overall labor inflation has moderated to a level that can be managed within the company's 3-5% productivity improvement targets.

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    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to Dutch Bros (BROS) leadership

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to Dutch Bros (BROS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips of Melius Research LLC asked for more detail on the personalization and segmentation within the Dutch Rewards program, inquiring what inning of development it is in and how it connects to top-of-funnel paid advertising.

    Answer

    CEO Christine Barone stated they are still in the "early innings" of segmentation and are exploring new app functionalities to make rewards more fun and social. She differentiated the two marketing channels: paid advertising is for top-of-funnel brand awareness to drive a first visit, while the Dutch Rewards program is for building a direct relationship and driving frequency once a customer has engaged with the brand.

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    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to Murphy USA (MUSA) leadership

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to Murphy USA (MUSA) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips from Melius Research asked about the drivers behind the significant improvement in product supply and wholesale (PS&W) results from Q1 to Q2. He also inquired about the company's capital allocation strategy, specifically how they balance leverage tolerance with growth investments and shareholder returns amid softer fuel volumes.

    Answer

    EVP & COO Mindy West explained that the PS&W improvement was due to a market that, while still well-supplied, was less so than in Q1, along with different pricing dynamics. On capital allocation, President, CEO & Director Andrew Clyde emphasized their disciplined 50/50 strategy for growth and shareholder returns, stating they don't borrow for a single purpose. EVP & CFO Gallagher Jeff added that the company is very comfortable with its current leverage, which provides flexibility to execute its long-term strategy.

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    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to Murphy USA (MUSA) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips from Melius Research asked about the drivers behind the significant improvement in Product Supply & Wholesale (PS&W) results from Q1 to Q2. He also questioned the capital allocation strategy, asking how the company balances leverage tolerance with growth and share repurchases, particularly in light of softer fuel volumes.

    Answer

    EVP & COO, Mindy West, explained that while Q2 was still a well-supplied market, it was less so than Q1, and the direction of pricing movement had a different impact on non-controllable factors. On capital allocation, President, CEO & Director, Andrew Clyde, stressed that leverage is not for any single purpose but supports a disciplined 50/50 strategy between growth and shareholder returns. EVP & CFO, Gallagher Jeff, added that the company is comfortable with its leverage, which is currently at 2.0x, well below their 2.5x tolerance.

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    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to Murphy USA (MUSA) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips inquired about how the merchandise ramp-up in new, larger stores impacts breakeven calculations and asked for details on new real estate processes and construction costs.

    Answer

    CEO Andrew Clyde explained that new stores move toward breakeven as merchandise margin ramps up to cover the full operating costs over time. He and COO Mindy West provided examples of new processes to accelerate development, such as adjusting risk tolerance on permits and implementing fuel dispenser stress tests. CFO Galagher Jeff noted the development pipeline is now robust at around 250 sites.

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    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL (CMG) leadership

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL (CMG) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips of Melius Research LLC asked about the long-term strategy for digital as a comp driver and the timeline for international markets to achieve self-sustaining growth.

    Answer

    CEO Scott Boatwright emphasized that digital remains a key focus, with ongoing work to create a frictionless user experience and drive new member enrollment. On international, he described the effort as being in the 'early, early innings,' but highlighted strong progress in Europe and with franchise partners. He affirmed that international will be a significant long-term growth lever for the brand.

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    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to CASEYS GENERAL STORES (CASY) leadership

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to CASEYS GENERAL STORES (CASY) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips asked about Casey's strategic positioning for a volatile policy environment and the specific plans to improve prepared food margins at the newly acquired Fikes stores.

    Answer

    CEO Darren Rebelez stated that new capabilities in procurement, data analytics, and culinary have made the company more resilient than it was 4-5 years ago. Regarding Fikes, he explained the margin difference is due to their protein-heavy mix versus Casey's high-margin pizza. The plan is to introduce Casey's pizza, optimize the combined menu, and eventually migrate Fikes to Casey's more favorable supplier contracts.

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    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to CASEYS GENERAL STORES (CASY) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips asked about the competitive landscape in prepared foods, particularly against pizza and other QSRs, and whether Casey's might need to increase promotions. He also inquired about the timeline for rebranding Fikes stores and integrating their fuel assets.

    Answer

    CEO Darren Rebelez stated that Casey's value proposition remains strong against QSRs, especially in sandwiches, without needing more aggressive promotions. He noted that in half their stores, they face no major pizza competition and are already priced competitively in the other half. Rebelez explained the Fikes store remodels will take a few years, while the fuel procurement integration will happen more quickly, with the full integration process lasting 3-4 years.

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    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to Grocery Outlet Holding (GO) leadership

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to Grocery Outlet Holding (GO) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips of Malius Research Group asked about the strategy for rebuilding the new store pipeline for growth beyond 2025 and how the pipeline for recruiting new independent operators (IOs) has been affected.

    Answer

    Chairman Eric Lindberg confirmed that the pipeline for both real estate and IOs remains healthy, with access to more opportunities than needed. He stated the reduction in openings was a strategic choice, not due to a lack of options. The focus is on execution and improving the ROI of the model. He noted that IO recruitment is strong, allowing the company to be selective in choosing the most capable operators.

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    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to Grocery Outlet Holding (GO) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips asked for context on the Q4 and 2025 comp outlook, given the company will be lapping both system issues and competitive pressures. He also inquired about new store productivity, as unit growth plans remain unchanged.

    Answer

    Interim CFO Lindsay Gray explained the Q4 comp guide is cautious due to a slight slowdown on a two-year basis and difficult comparisons, and reiterated the long-term 1-3% comp target for 2025. Interim President and CEO Eric Lindberg confirmed there is no issue with the 50+ store opening plan for next year, as the real estate pipeline is well-established with signed leases.

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    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to Performance Food Group (PFGC) leadership

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to Performance Food Group (PFGC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips questioned the financial contribution from the Cheney Brothers acquisition, noting the initial guidance seemed conservative. He also asked about the strategy for integrating Cheney's underpenetrated private label brands with PFG's portfolio.

    Answer

    CFO Patrick Hatcher defended the guidance as a confident 'beat and raise.' CEO George Holm added that Cheney is performing exceptionally well but is also investing heavily in hiring salespeople, which impacts near-term expense ratios. Regarding private labels, Holm explained that they will be cautious not to disrupt Cheney's go-to-market strategy and are currently evaluating which of Cheney's brands to retain.

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    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to KROGER (KR) leadership

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to KROGER (KR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips from Melius Research LLC asked about the relationship between SG&A leverage and wage investments going forward. He also inquired about the potential impact of tariffs on the business.

    Answer

    Interim CFO Todd Foley explained that the company's model allows them to balance wage investments with other profitability initiatives to leverage SG&A in the current environment. Chairman and CEO Rodney McMullen addressed tariffs, stating that the effect on Kroger is likely less than on other companies due to modest international sourcing, and they can manage any impact as competitors would face the same pressures.

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    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) leadership

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips questioned if the Q4 comp and bottom-line guidance was conservative and asked about the primary drivers for comp growth over the next 2-3 years.

    Answer

    CFO Curtis Valentine defended the Q4 guidance, stating the midpoint represents an acceleration on a one-year basis and is in line with Q3 performance. CEO Jack Sinclair expressed confidence in long-term growth, citing resilient customers, strategic initiatives, and the powerful tailwind of the health trend. Curtis added that while they aspire to beat guidance, factors like the election and holidays warrant a prudent outlook.

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    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to Albertsons Companies (ACI) leadership

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips's questions to Albertsons Companies (ACI) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jacob Aiken-Phillips asked for more color on consumer behavior changes, including any regional variations, and requested the key puts and takes that would drive results to the high or low end of the Q4 guidance range.

    Answer

    CEO Vivek Sankaran noted that the consumer remains cautious and is shopping more stores, but he has not seen significant behavioral shifts or regional variations in their business. President and CFO Sharon McCollam explained that Q4 variability depends on major events like the Super Bowl and Valentine's Day, where timing and consumer engagement can significantly influence outcomes.

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