James Chartier

James Chartier asked for deeper insight into the inventory cleansing strategy, including when the turnover levels became unacceptable, how the strategy will unfold throughout the year (first half headwind, second half less), and its impact on ordering activity, gross margins, and SG&A. He also sought clarification on whether the guidance factors in the positive inflection from improved consumer equity positions starting in the second half of the year.

Answer

Matthew Wagner, CEO and President, explained that the inventory philosophy aims for elevated turnover rates (2.2-2.4 for new, 3.4-3.5 for used) to reduce carrying costs, depreciation, and unlock capital. He expects a 120-130 basis point decline in combined new and used gross margins for 2026, primarily in the first half. Brett Andrus, SVP, Investor Relations, added that the guidance includes minimal positive inflection from the trade-in cycle, as it's viewed as a long-duration event extending to 2030.

James Chartier asked for deeper insight into the inventory cleansing strategy, including when turnover levels became unacceptable, how it will play out, its impact on ordering and gross margins, and whether the anticipated positive inflection from improved consumer equity is factored into the guidance.

Answer

Matthew Wagner, CEO and President, explained that the inventory philosophy aims for higher turnover (2.2-2.4 for new, 3.4-3.5 for used) to reduce carrying costs, depreciation, and unlock capital. He expects a 120-130 basis point decline in combined new and used gross margins for 2026, primarily in the first half. Brett Andrus, SVP and Investor Relations, clarified that the trade-in cycle's positive inflection is minimally factored into 2026 retail outlooks, as it's viewed as a longer-duration event extending to 2030.

Jim Chartier of Monness, Crespi, Hardt asked about the impact of the eliminated de minimis tariff exclusion on Chinese online imports. He also questioned if Garden shipments had picked up in recent months and asked for clarification on the Garden segment's POS for the quarter.

Answer

John Hanson, President of Pet Consumer Products, noted anecdotal evidence of price increases on Chinese import sites since the de minimis change, suggesting it could be a future tailwind for durables. J.D. Walker, President of Garden Consumer Products, confirmed that both consumption and shipments in the Garden segment improved as weather got better. He clarified that Garden POS was down low-single digits, but flat when excluding the loss of two third-party distribution lines.

James Chartier of Monness, Crespi, Hardt inquired about the specific percentage of products sourced from China, Mexico, and Canada, and asked for clarification on the term "softer 2Q," including its implications for sales, EPS, and operating margin.

Answer

CEO Nicholas Lahanas and CFO Brad Smith clarified that approximately 4% of products are sourced from China and a combined 2% from Canada and Mexico. Lahanas explained that a "softer 2Q" means results will likely be below the strong prior-year Q2, with top-line sales potentially down low-single digits due to the timing shift from Q1, though he noted margins may not necessarily be down.

James Chartier sought clarity on the company's overall sales outlook and the Garden business in particular. He also asked for the final amount of the grass seed write-down and the cost outlook for the upcoming year, excluding benefits from the Cost and Simplicity program.

Answer

CEO Nicholas Lahanas stated that the company does not guide on top-line revenue but is cautious, not expecting exceptional growth, partly due to exiting some low-margin durable pet business. He confirmed the grass seed write-down was $19 million. Regarding costs, he noted the outlook is good but the promotional environment remains a key variable.

James Chartier asked about the scale of the planned assortment modernization and the associated risk of alienating core customers, and also questioned what made recent pricing actions more effective at driving unit volume compared to promotions over the past few years.

Answer

Executive Kendra Krugman clarified that the assortment changes are more evolutionary for the core baby and toddler segments but more significant for the kids' segment, aiming to retain customers longer. Executive Richard Westenberger explained that recent pricing actions were a direct response to aggressive competitor pricing on comparable items. He attributed the success to this targeted approach, combined with a strong holiday season, effective promotional messaging around key events like Black Friday, and a focus on essential "basket starter" items.

James Chartier asked for details on the product assortment shift towards 'good' and 'best' tiers, whether Q3 promotions were focused on the 'good' tier, and the potential gross margin impact of this mix shift.

Answer

Executive Kendra Krugman explained the shift involves both more depth and breadth in products and confirmed promotions were almost entirely in the 'good' tier to compete with private labels. CEO Michael Casey added that the shift should be a net benefit to margins, as improving the mix will reduce the need for heavy promotions on the underperforming 'mid-tier' products.

James Chartier of Monness Crespi Hardt asked for details on the drivers of the projected SG&A reduction beyond Rogan's synergies and advertising, and inquired about the total addressable market for the Shoe Station rebannering strategy.

Answer

CFO Patrick Edwards confirmed that the SG&A savings are driven almost exclusively by the accelerated Rogan's synergy capture and the flexibility of the digital-first marketing strategy, which allows for spending adjustments based on real-time consumer demand. CEO Mark Worden addressed the rebannering opportunity, stating that while the full potential is still being determined, the company is confident it will surpass 100 Shoe Station stores ahead of its 2028 target, with the next 25 stores in H1 2025 providing more clarity on expansion into new states.

James Chartier of Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co., Inc. asked if the low-end sales outlook implied a low-end EPS result, about future marketing spend, the drivers of success in the banner-switch stores, and whether learnings could be applied to Shoe Carnival stores without a full re-bannering.

Answer

President and CEO Mark Worden confirmed a low-end sales outcome would likely lead to a low-to-mid-end EPS result. He stated marketing spend would not increase due to improved efficiency and that the banner-switch success is driven by attracting new, more affluent customers with Shoe Station's distinct product assortment and store aesthetic. He also noted that simply applying these learnings is not feasible as the two banners serve different customer bases and brand propositions.

James Chartier asked about the long-term digital gaming strategy, including the launch schedule for Mattel163 and internally developed games. He also questioned the drivers behind the growth in SG&A.

Answer

CEO Ynon Kreiz outlined the three-pronged gaming strategy: licensing, the Mattel163 joint venture (expected to exceed $200M gross billings this year), and self-publishing, with the first game in development. CFO Anthony DiSilvestro attributed the slight increase in SG&A to strategic investments in building capabilities, particularly in digital gaming and information technology.

Asked about the assumptions for price increases within the Kinetic Group's guidance for the year and the point-of-sale (POS) trends assumed in the FY25 guidance for Revelyst.

Answer

The Kinetic Group's guidance does not assume any price increases, though a targeted increase was implemented in May and another broader one is expected to cover rising commodity costs like copper. For Revelyst, the guidance conservatively assumes POS will be slightly down in Q1 but will build momentum throughout the year, supported by market share gains in key brands.

Asked for clarification on the expected stand-alone EBITDA for Revelyst for the current fiscal year, the drivers behind the goal to double it next year, whether revenue growth is needed to achieve that, and if any of the 'GEAR Up' savings will be reinvested.

Answer

Executives expect Revelyst's stand-alone EBITDA margin to be around 4.5% for FY24. They are confident they can double the EBITDA dollars in FY25, driven primarily by cost savings from the 'GEAR Up' program and a reduction in promotions, rather than needing significant revenue growth. They clarified that the announced $100 million in savings is a net figure, and they do plan to reinvest a portion of the gross savings back into the business for marketing and R&D.

Asked for a quantification of the gross profit impact from the distribution issues in the second half of the year, what portion is permanent, and the confidence level in fixing these issues by the next peak season.

Answer

Sheamus Toal broke down the Q3 margin pressure into three main drivers: changes in order economics, delayed contract savings, and increased labor/third-party costs, each contributing about a third of the impact. He expects some pressure to alleviate in Q4 but believes the vast majority of the issues, excluding the base wage rate increases, will be solved by the next peak Back-to-School season.