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James Holmes

Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Stifel Financial Corp.

James Holmes is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst at Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, specializing in the insurance sector with extensive coverage of publicly traded insurers such as The Hartford, Chubb, and MetLife. Over his tenure at Stifel, Holmes has built a reputation for deep industry insight and actionable investment recommendations, with a history of achieving above-average accuracy as recognized by independent platforms and client feedback. He began his investment research career in the early 2000s with Prudential Equity Group before joining Stifel in 2005, where he quickly advanced to his current role thanks to his strong analytical acumen and client relationships. Holmes holds several securities industry licenses, including the FINRA Series 7, 63, 86, and 87, and has been consistently recognized among sector specialists for his depth of coverage and quality of analysis.

James Holmes's questions to NCR Atleos (NATL) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

James Holmes, on behalf of Stifel, asked about the sustainability of the high gross margin in the ATM as a Service business and the interest rate assumptions embedded in the company's guidance.

Answer

EVP & COO Stuart MacKinnon stated that while the ATM as a Service margin profile can vary by deal, it is expected to continue to trend higher, particularly with more North American deals. President & CEO Tim Oliver emphasized the model's scalability, noting profitability should continue to outpace revenue growth. Regarding interest rates, management clarified the original 2025 plan assumed four rate cuts that have not materialized, and the company has absorbed this impact into its reaffirmed guidance.

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Question · Q2 2025

James Holmes, on for Shlomo Rosenbaum, asked about the sustainability of the high ATM as a Service gross margin, potential impacts from the deal backlog, and the interest rate assumptions embedded in guidance for the Network segment.

Answer

CEO Tim Oliver and COO Stuart MacKinnon explained that while the recent 900 bps margin expansion was due to an advantageous mix, the business model is highly scalable, and profitability should continue to outpace revenue growth. Regarding interest rates, Stuart MacKinnon noted they borrow at SOFR plus 70-90 basis points. Tim Oliver added that the original 2025 plan assumed four rate cuts that have not occurred, and the company has absorbed this impact into its reaffirmed guidance.

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Question · Q1 2025

James Holmes, on for Shlomo Rosenbaum, asked about the types of customers and geographies driving ATM-as-a-Service growth and the reasons for the strong gross profit performance in that business.

Answer

CFO R. Wamser explained that Q1 customer additions were concentrated in high-ARPU North America, with a balanced global pipeline for the remainder of the year. CEO Tim Oliver added that the strong profitability is driven by winning smaller, high-value contracts in North America, where the company's scalable cost structure delivers higher margins compared to more competitive markets like India or Brazil.

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