Jamie Baker • JPMorgan Chase & Co.

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CEO John Plueger responded that even with projected production increases, a significant aircraft supply shortfall is expected to persist for the next three to four years. He believes the sale-leaseback market will likely remain overly competitive with lower returns compared to their direct order book strategy. However, he affirmed that Air Lease remains open to unique sale-leaseback opportunities, particularly if they are part of a larger transaction with an airline.

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CEO John Plueger indicated that the 2025 sales plan of ~$1.5 billion is consistent with recent levels, though they remain opportunistic. Executive Chairman Steven Udvar-Hazy added they are exploring managed vehicle structures. In response to the second question, CFO Greg Willis pointed to the previously disclosed figure of $5 billion in COVID-era leases maturing by the end of 2026 as the key metric for investors to gauge the portfolio's transition.

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Executive Chairman Steven Udvar-Hazy stated that OEMs are now focusing on 'quality with lessors rather than quantity,' which benefits Air Lease due to its strong placement capabilities. CEO John Plueger and Mr. Hazy both noted that while the sale-leaseback market remains a key financing tool for airlines, particularly fast-growing LCCs, it does not diminish the strong direct demand for Air Lease's order book.

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CEO Joanna Geraghty stated that while they cannot legally discuss slot usage with United, their financial model for the partnership includes assumptions about the competitive impact. President Marty St. George asserted that competing premium products from ULCCs have had 'no impact whatsoever,' citing JetBlue's established credibility and superior product. He added that JetBlue continues to innovate with a domestic first-class product launching in 2026.

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President Martin St. George confirmed the partnership is with a domestic airline with a large network. CEO Joanna Geraghty addressed the second question, stating that while the macro environment is challenging, the JetForward strategy is working and provides a long-term path to profitability. She highlighted early proof points like improved operational reliability (A14) and Net Promoter Scores (NPS), strong performance of new products, and resilient loyalty revenue as indicators that the strategy is sound and will position the company to emerge stronger.

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President Marty St. George explained that the revenue acceleration is driven by a 1.5-point benefit from the Easter holiday shift and the continued execution of the JetForward strategic plan, without assuming any major changes in the competitive environment. He acknowledged that RASM growth in Boston would be lower than elsewhere due to the added capacity but noted that the airline is redeploying assets back to core Northeast leisure markets.

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CEO Joanna Geraghty affirmed that the transatlantic operation remains an important and profitable part of the East Coast leisure network, driving loyalty relevance. She noted the company has effectively seasonalized the routes to redeploy aircraft in winter. On the second point, she stated unequivocally, 'we're not interested in revisiting the Spirit's potential acquisition,' emphasizing a laser focus on the organic JetForward plan. However, she allowed that the company would evaluate acquiring assets if it were a capitally prudent opportunity.

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President & CEO Bob Jordan confirmed the decline is fully explained by the industry-wide macro impact of 5-6% and higher fuel costs, not an underlying issue in the base business. CFO Tom Doxey addressed financing, stating that as incremental EBIT from initiatives generates free cash flow, the company will have flexibility to use that cash or surplus debt capacity for repurchases, with options for either unsecured bonds or aircraft debt if needed.

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President and CEO Bob Jordan acknowledged that the prior stack of initiatives was insufficient to drive appropriate margins post-COVID. Chief Operating Officer Andrew Watterson added that the company admitted its previous value proposition wasn't generating needed revenue and has pivoted to a new, segmented offering. Jordan emphasized that the new initiatives are unique to Southwest and, combined with strong cost discipline, will drive relative outperformance.

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CFO Tammy Romo and CEO Bob Jordan reiterated that the margin guidance range was always intended to show performance with and without the fleet strategy, and the clarification was based on shareholder feedback. Regarding loyalty, EVP Ryan Green confirmed that while they cannot act without Chase, discussions are underway to amend the contract and evolve the card products for the new premium seating world.

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CEO Scott Kirby responded that his focus is on achieving high absolute margins for United, not relative performance, but asserted that United and Delta are the only two structurally advantaged 'brand loyal' airlines and will generate the bulk of industry profits. He highlighted United's superior hubs as a key advantage. EVP & CFO Mike Leskinen described MileagePlus as a 'crown jewel asset' and stated that unencumbering it provides future optionality, with a current focus on providing segment-level financial disclosure for the program in the next year to highlight its value.

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CEO Scott Kirby stated that in a normalized post-recession economy, United's margins would be higher, driven by structural industry changes and their brand-loyal customer base. EVP and CFO Mike Leskinen explained that the buyback strategy is opportunistic, aiming to optimize the cost of capital when the stock is undervalued, while maintaining discipline to continue deleveraging towards an investment-grade rating.

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EVP and CCO Andrew Nocella affirmed his view on the discounter life cycle, citing United's 'generational investments' in product complexity. CEO Scott Kirby asserted that not all capacity is equal, explaining that United's strategy of adding service and frequency has a less negative impact on industry RASM than competitors' strategies of chasing load factor.

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EVP & CCO Andrew Nocella expressed skepticism about the sustainability of competitors' peak-season strategy and noted unprofitable capacity is exiting the market. He clarified that United's goal with Basic Economy is to expand margins, not just volume, calling the strategy a 'solid home run' that is profitable for United and detrimental to competitors.

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President Glen Hauenstein confirmed strong and undiminishing demand for premium products, which supports further expansion of premium seating. On workplace flexibility, Hauenstein believes the workplace remains more flexible post-pandemic, supporting travel demand. CEO Ed Bastian added that business travel is still 15-20% below where it should be relative to the economy's size, suggesting significant upside potential.

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President Glen Hauenstein confirmed that demand for premium cabins remains strong with no signs of diminishing. He suggested the 'bleisure' concern was overstated, noting workplace flexibility remains high. CEO Ed Bastian added that corporate travel still has significant recovery potential, with an estimated 15-20% of travel yet to return relative to the economy's size.

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President Glen Hauenstein confirmed the booking curves are not significantly different. CEO Ed Bastian responded that he is not planning involuntary actions and has many voluntary tools available. He noted many new hires are industry veterans who understand turbulence, and he consistently reminds all employees that periods of change are when Delta can differentiate itself.

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President Glen Hauenstein stated his belief that the industry needs to recapture fuel costs faster than in the past due to margin pressures. CFO Dan Janki added that carriers must improve overall margins, not just offset fuel. Regarding corporate travel, Glen noted that behavior is reverting on the margin (e.g., shorter booking curves) but remains different from pre-pandemic norms.

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President Glen Hauenstein clarified that the benefits are not front-loaded; as competitors cut better-performing routes, the positive impact on remaining capacity actually increases. He also stated a corporate travel recovery would likely be managed by reallocating fare buckets rather than significant network rebalancing, as premium products are already performing well.

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CEO Barry Biffle stated that oversupply in markets like Florida has moderated, with some competitors cutting capacity significantly. He attributed recent weakness to a broad 'demand shock' in March that is now subsiding. Regarding tariffs, Biffle stated succinctly, 'We have no plans to pay tariffs.'

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CFO Mark Mitchell explained that while the premium per aircraft is not an issue, the total gain will differ in 2025 due to a lower number of deliveries (21 vs. 23) and a different mix (8 A320neos in 2025 vs. all A321s in 2024). CEO Barry Biffle stated that while Frontier doesn't model ATC reform internally, industry studies suggest savings of 18-22 minutes per flight, which would improve efficiency, the customer experience, and safety. He expressed support for reforms like raising the controller retirement age.

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CFO Mark Mitchell acknowledged that sale-leaseback gains would likely be lower in 2025 but stated that other tailwinds, like the full-year benefit of network simplification, would more than mitigate this. CEO Barry Biffle attributed the Q4 margin outlook to the significant negative impact of two hurricanes on its Florida operations and demand, as well as a drag from a high number of new, immature markets. He noted that without the hurricanes, margins would have been much closer to single digits.

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CEO Aengus Kelly acknowledged that tariffs add costs to the system but noted AerCap's existing OEM contracts have fixed escalation caps, protecting the company. He speculated that widespread tariffs could boost used aircraft values. He expressed hope for a tariff-free environment, suggesting an expansion of the 1979 agreement to include nations like China and India would be a significant victory for the U.S. aerospace industry. He also mentioned that discussions are reportedly underway in China to potentially exempt the aerospace sector.

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CEO Aengus Kelly clarified that very few aircraft transition, and the company manages for EPS and ROE, not net spread, which can be influenced by asset sales. CFO Pete Juhas detailed that against an original book value of approximately $3.2 billion, the company has recovered about $1.3 billion in 2023 and $200 million in 2024.

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CEO Benito Minicucci stated the team is "nimble" and "decisive" and would make trade-offs to pursue a high-value opportunity if one arose. On the integration, he expressed high confidence in achieving the single operating certificate by October, noting submissions are on track. He clarified that the key milestones—the certificate, passenger service system integration, and joint bargaining—are not strictly interdependent and can proceed on separate tracks.

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CFO Shane Tackett and CEO Benito Minicucci both stated there have been no negative surprises, attributing this to a more thorough due diligence process compared to the Virgin deal. In fact, they noted performance has been better than expected. To improve Hawaiian's Q1 results, Minicucci explained the strategy involves applying Alaska's disciplined approach of matching capacity to demand, optimizing aircraft placement, and improving productivity.

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CEO Benito Minicucci stated that discussions with the DOJ have occurred and they are in the "home stretch," awaiting the DOJ's decision around August 5th, feeling strong about their pro-consumer case. CCO Andrew Harrison confirmed that the yield premium for the entire Premium Class cabin is around 40% over the main cabin, with about half of that being paid, suggesting the 15-20% estimate for paid premium is accurate.

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CFO Devon May expressed confidence in the balance sheet, highlighting $10.8 billion in liquidity and significant unencumbered assets. Vice Chair Steve Johnson explained that adding flights at the edges of the day in Chicago is a cost-effective growth strategy that is vital for serving local traffic.

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CEO Robert Isom explained that the full deployment of the regional fleet in 2025 will bolster hubs like DFW, Charlotte, and Miami, while also improving performance at DCA, Philadelphia, and Chicago. Vice Chair Steve Johnson confirmed that the foundational work of signing new agreements with corporate and agency partners is complete, setting the stage for share recovery in Q1 and Q2 2025.

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CFO Devon May addressed the earnings question by highlighting the relationship between fuel and revenue, noting that capacity is adjusted based on the fuel environment and that results cannot be viewed in isolation. CEO Robert Isom responded on network strategy, stating the current network is 'fantastic' and that the priority is maximizing existing assets, including key partnerships with Alaska Airlines and British Airways, and growing in key markets like New York rather than addressing perceived deficiencies.

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