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Janet Lee

Research Analyst at TD Cowen

Janet Lee's questions to VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (VLY) leadership

Janet Lee's questions to VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (VLY) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Janet Lee from TD Cowen questioned Valley National Bancorp on the drivers of specialized deposit growth, its role in replacing indirect deposits, and whether the growth pace in other commercial and small business deposits could sustain a $2 billion annual rate. She also asked if the Q3 headwinds from commodity C&I payoffs were temporary and if any other parts of the portfolio are targeted for runoff.

Answer

CFO Travis Lan detailed that specialized deposit growth was broad-based, including contributions from healthcare, HOA, Cannabis, and National Deposits Group, alongside significant commercial growth across New Jersey, New York, and Florida markets. He expects specialty deposits to grow at an above-average rate but noted it's not the sole source. CFO Travis Lan confirmed that the commodity C&I payoffs were a temporary, unique dynamic for the quarter, and no other parts of the portfolio are targeted for runoff, suggesting a broader view of loan growth over a longer period.

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Janet Lee's questions to VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (VLY) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Janet Lee asked about the specialized deposit growth, its role in replacing indirect deposits, and whether commercial and small business deposits could sustain a $2 billion annual growth pace. She also inquired if the Q3 headwinds from commodity C&I payoffs were temporary and if any other parts of Valley's portfolio are targeted for runoff.

Answer

Travis Lan, CFO, confirmed that specialized deposits (healthcare, HOA, Cannabis, National Deposits Group) are a focus and should grow at an above-average rate, but emphasized that deposit growth is broad-based across all markets, including commercial deposits in New Jersey, New York, and Florida. Travis Lan, CFO, clarified that the commodity C&I payoffs were a temporary dynamic unique to Q3, and no other parts of the portfolio are targeted for runoff, noting that total loans were up 2.5% annualized over the last six months despite these headwinds.

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Janet Lee's questions to Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) leadership

Janet Lee's questions to Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Janet Lee with TD Cowen inquired if the C&I loan decline was solely due to lower utilization and if the projected mid-single-digit loan growth for Q4 relies on utilization picking up. She also asked about the core NIM trajectory for 2026, considering asset sensitivity and potential yield curve steepening. Additionally, she questioned management's primary concerns if a government shutdown were prolonged.

Answer

President and CEO John Asbury and EVP and Wholesale Banking Group Executive David Ring clarified that while reduced line utilization was a material factor in the C&I loan decline, Q4 loan growth targets are supported by current pipelines and not solely predicated on a reversal in line utilization. EVP and CFO Rob Gorman and John Asbury projected low single-digit core NIM expansion per quarter, dependent on term rates and fixed-rate loan repricing, noting less asset sensitivity post-Sandy Spring acquisition. John Asbury expressed no particular concern about a prolonged government shutdown, citing past resilience of government contractors and minimal consumer impact, though it could further slow economic activity.

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Janet Lee's questions to SouthState Bank (SSB) leadership

Janet Lee's questions to SouthState Bank (SSB) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Janet Lee asked if the previous guidance of a 1-2 basis point NIM improvement per 25 basis point rate cut still holds, clarifying if it applied to core NIM or included accretion. She also inquired about the implications of IBTX bankers adopting SouthState's business model in 2026 on expenses, incentives, and growth profile.

Answer

Steve Young, Chief Strategy Officer, clarified that the core NIM guidance has changed due to a revised loan accretion forecast (down by 4 basis points for 2026) and a lower deposit beta assumption of 27% for the easing cycle, compared to 38% previously. He expects NIM to start in the mid-380s and move higher by late 2026/early 2027 as deposit beta potentially increases. CEO John Corbett explained that in 2026, IBTX incentives will align with SouthState's P&L-based approach for Regional Presidents, focusing on PP&R growth, with adjustments to encourage recruiting by not penalizing for new hire compensation in the first year.

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Janet Lee's questions to SouthState Bank (SSB) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Janet Lee asked for an update on the company's sensitivity to rate cuts, specifically if the prior guidance of a one to two basis point NIM improvement per 25 basis point cut still holds, and whether this guidance included accretion. She also inquired about the implications of IBTX bankers adopting SouthState's business model, particularly concerning expenses, incentives for deposit costs or loans, and the potential impact on the growth profile.

Answer

Chief Strategy Officer Steve Young clarified that the prior guidance on NIM improvement per rate cut is impacted by the revised loan accretion forecast (down to $125M for 2026 from $150M) and the deposit beta. He noted that while the deposit beta for the first 100 basis points of cuts was 38%, the company is modeling 27% for future cuts, similar to the 2019-2020 easing cycle, with a potential lag. He expects NIM to start in the mid-$3.80s and move higher by late 2026/early 2027 as the deposit beta potentially improves. CEO John Corbett explained that IBTX's incentive system will align with SouthState's approach in 2026, basing incentives on PP&R growth and loan growth, with adjustments to encourage recruiting by not penalizing regional presidents for new hires' first-year compensation.

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Janet Lee's questions to TEXAS CAPITAL BANCSHARES INC/TX (TCBI) leadership

Janet Lee's questions to TEXAS CAPITAL BANCSHARES INC/TX (TCBI) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Janet Lee asked about the mortgage finance self-funding ratio, specifically if there's a structural opportunity to reduce it further beyond the expected 85% for Q4, given the firm's increasing client deposits. She also sought clarification on the 'maturation of the platform' commentary regarding expenses, asking if it implies less need for significant talent hiring compared to previous years.

Answer

CFO Matt Scurlock confirmed that reducing reliance on mortgage finance deposits by growing commercial client deposits is an ongoing goal, as it improves margin, beta profile, and liquidity quality. CEO Rob Holmes added that the mortgage business is now viewed as a profitable industry vertical with diverse revenue streams beyond just warehouse yield. Regarding expenses, Rob Holmes clarified that while the firm will continue to add front-office talent, the extensive infrastructure build-out (operating risk, controls, accounting, compliance) is largely complete. This means incremental headcount additions are now much smaller on the margin, as the underlying support structure is already in place.

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Janet Lee's questions to WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORPORATION (WAL) leadership

Janet Lee's questions to WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORPORATION (WAL) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Janet Lee asked about Western Alliance Bancorporation's comfort level with limited loss potential on First Brands and Canter Group 5 exposures, and the adequacy of current reserves for NDFI exposure. She also inquired about beta expectations for ECR deposits and the outlook for mortgage revenue.

Answer

President and CEO Ken Vecchione expressed comfort with asset quality, anticipating no losses from Canter Group 5 due to collateral, guarantees, and a $25 million mortgage insurance policy, and no large reserve increases. CFO Dale Gibbons clarified ECR beta is closer to 70%, with credit-related deposits at 100% beta. Ken Vecchione highlighted strong mortgage-related income, up 21% quarter-over-quarter, driven by lower 30-year mortgage rates, and expressed optimism for 2026 despite seasonal Q4 declines.

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Janet Lee's questions to WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORPORATION (WAL) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Janet Lee inquired about Western Alliance Bancorporation's credit picture, specifically their comfort level with current reserves given NDFI exposure and potential for future increases.

Answer

President and CEO Ken Vecchione expressed comfort with asset quality, anticipating stability and no losses from Canter Group 5 or Point Bonita Fund 1, citing collateral, guarantees, and a $25 million mortgage insurance policy. He noted that CECL reviews are ongoing, based on macroeconomic factors, interest rates, and portfolio composition, and does not foresee another significant reserve increase. Regarding a follow-up on PP&R growth, interest expense, ECR deposit beta, and mortgage revenue, CFO Dale Gibbons clarified ECR beta is closer to 70%, with credit-related ECR deposits having a 100% beta. Ken Vecchione highlighted strong mortgage-related income due to lower 30-year mortgage rates, expecting continued momentum despite seasonal Q4 declines, and optimism for 2026.

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Janet Lee's questions to OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/ (ONB) leadership

Janet Lee's questions to OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/ (ONB) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Janet Lee asked for the size of the Bremer loan runoff in Q3 and clarified if the Q4 loan growth guidance, stated as 'excluding Bremer' for the full year, also excludes the impact of Bremer runoffs or just the initial added loan amount. She also inquired about the drivers of the strong fee income, particularly capital markets, and if the Q3 performance represents a sustainable run rate.

Answer

CFO John Moran stated that the Q3 Bremer runoff was about $200 million. He clarified that the full-year loan growth guidance (4-5% excluding Bremer) accounts for Bremer not being present for the first four months, but the Q4 guidance (3-5%) is inclusive of all Old National and Bremer operations. He confirmed that Bremer runoffs are expected to reduce in coming quarters. Regarding fee income, Moran indicated that the right run rate for total fee income is around $120 million, with Q3 being exceptionally strong, especially in capital markets, and expects it to normalize in Q4, along with seasonal mortgage income.

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Janet Lee's questions to OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/ (ONB) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Janet Lee asked for the size of the Bremer loan runoff observed in Q3 and sought clarification on whether the loan growth guidance 'excluding Bremer' also accounts for these runoffs or only the initial added loan amount. She also inquired about the nature of the strong fee income performance, particularly the jump in capital markets, other fee, and bank fees, asking if these represent organic trends or unusual occurrences, and if they indicate a sustainable run rate for growth.

Answer

CFO John Moran stated that the third-quarter Bremer runoff was about $200 million. He clarified that the fourth-quarter loan growth guidance is inclusive of everything (Old National plus Bremer), while the full-year guidance excludes Bremer because it wasn't present for the first four months. He confirmed that future runoffs from Bremer-related lines of business are expected to be reduced compared to the $200 million. Regarding fee income, John Moran indicated that the right run rate for total fee income is probably around $120 million, with Q3 being exceptionally good, especially in capital markets due to rate volatility, which he expects to normalize. Mortgage income was also seasonally strong in Q3 and will decline in Q4.

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Janet Lee's questions to WINTRUST FINANCIAL (WTFC) leadership

Janet Lee's questions to WINTRUST FINANCIAL (WTFC) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Janet Lee asked about the strategic growth trajectory of premium finance loans, considering seasonality and its share of the loan portfolio. She questioned how Wintrust's appetite for premium finance versus C&I loans would change if C&I growth picked up, given premium finance's comparable yields and lower credit risk but lack of deposit generation. She also sought color on whether the four basis point decline in loan yields was solely due to variable rate loan impact or if there was incremental spread compression.

Answer

Dave Dykstra, Vice Chairman and Chief Operating Officer, stated that premium finance typically constitutes about a third of the balance sheet, and Wintrust aims to grow all good businesses. He indicated that they wouldn't reduce focus on premium finance even with increased C&I growth, and if concentration became an issue (e.g., around 40%), they might sell off excess production. Timothy Crane, President and Chief Executive Officer, confirmed that the loan yield decline was mostly due to the timing around variable rate loans. He acknowledged increased market competitiveness for fully funded loans but reiterated Wintrust's selective approach to client acquisition and its ability to maintain the margin.

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Janet Lee's questions to ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION /UT/ (ZION) leadership

Janet Lee's questions to ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION /UT/ (ZION) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Janet Lee sought clarification on the NII guide, specifically confirming the expected 2-3 basis point lift to earning asset yields per quarter and the assumption of reinvesting half of the securities runoff, requesting details on underlying assumptions. She also asked for confirmation that CNI would be a bigger driver for commercial loan growth than CRE, and about commercial borrowers' optimism regarding rate cuts and the potential positive impact of bonus depreciation returning in 2026 on CNI loan growth.

Answer

CFO Ryan Richards confirmed the expected range for earning asset yield pickup and stated that the bank has consistently reinvested about half of gross cash flows from the securities portfolio, though this may taper. He noted that future reinvestment depends on liquidity stress tests, loan growth opportunities, and wholesale funding paydowns. President and COO Scott McLean confirmed that CNI loans are expected to be the greater portion of growth in 2026. He suggested that borrower enthusiasm is more tied to macroeconomy concerns than just rates, and while lower rates are welcome, they weren't the primary retardant to growth. Ryan Richards added that bonus depreciation would likely support capital investments, but no specific modeling was available yet.

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Janet Lee's questions to ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION /UT/ (ZION) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Janet Lee from TD Cowen sought confirmation on the NII guide assumptions, specifically a 2-3 basis point lift to earning asset yields per quarter based on the forward curve and whether half of the securities runoff would be reinvested. She also inquired if Commercial & Industrial (CNI) loans are expected to be a larger driver of commercial loan growth than Commercial Real Estate (CRE) over the next 12 months, and if commercial borrowers are showing increased optimism due to anticipated rate cuts and potential bonus depreciation.

Answer

CFO Ryan Richards confirmed the 2-3 basis point range for earning asset yield pickup, noting consistent reinvestment of about half of gross securities cash flows, though future reinvestment depends on liquidity tests and loan growth opportunities. President and COO Scott McLean confirmed CNI will be the greater portion of growth in 2026, adding that borrower enthusiasm is more tied to macroeconomy concerns than solely rate changes. Ryan Richards noted that bonus depreciation would likely support capital investments, but no specific modeling was available.

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Janet Lee's questions to WEBSTER FINANCIAL (WBS) leadership

Janet Lee's questions to WEBSTER FINANCIAL (WBS) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Janet Lee asked about the drivers of CNI loan growth and whether 2026 loan growth is expected to exceed the previously anticipated 4-5% for 2025, given commercial real estate (CRE) runoffs. She also questioned if recent NBFI headlines would change Webster Financial's appetite for growing its NBFI exposure.

Answer

John Ciulla (CEO) stated that Webster is not yet ready to guide for 2026 but would consider mid-single-digit loan growth as solid, emphasizing diverse, full-relationship growth and onboarding good risk-return assets. Regarding NBFI, Mr. Ciulla acknowledged optical sensitivity but fundamentally views their existing NBFI categories (fund banking, lender finance) as low-risk and suitable for continued origination within the overall portfolio context, unless broader market cracks emerge.

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Janet Lee's questions to Bank OZK (OZK) leadership

Janet Lee's questions to Bank OZK (OZK) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Janet Lee asked for more clarity on the Boston office loan that moved to substandard accrual, specifically regarding the baseline expectation for securing a potential tenant and the likely path of the loan given the current reserve. She also inquired about the low loan origination volume in Q3, asking if it was an outlier and if higher volumes are expected in Q4 and beyond, considering declining RESG commitments are driven by payoffs.

Answer

George Gleason, Chairman and CEO, stated that the bank would not preempt the sponsor's negotiations on the Boston office loan, noting the sponsor is actively pursuing leasing and recapitalization options. He reiterated that the reserve adequately covers a wide range of potential scenarios. Regarding loan originations, George Gleason confirmed that declining RESG commitments are indeed due to payoffs. He indicated that Q3's low origination volume was likely an anomaly, with significant closings already occurring in Q4 that were anticipated in Q3. Despite market competition, he expects a return to more typical origination volumes in Q4 and future quarters.

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Janet Lee's questions to FIRST HORIZON (FHN) leadership

Janet Lee's questions to FIRST HORIZON (FHN) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Janet Lee sought more color on FHN Financial's trading revenue strength, particularly in September, asking if it was linked to rate cuts, the yield curve shape, and its sustainability, or if it involved securities repositioning. She also asked about the change in C&I loan growth pace and the comfort level with mid-single-digit loan growth for 2026. Finally, she inquired if potential M&A would focus on contiguous footprint and comfort crossing the $100 billion asset threshold.

Answer

CFO Hope Dmuchowski explained FHN Financial's momentum picked up before the rate cut signal and continued into early October, with less balance sheet repositioning than year-end. Chief Credit Officer Thomas Hung and Chairman, President, and CEO Bryan Jordan confirmed good C&I momentum, with lumpiness, and maintained comfort with mid-single-digit loan growth for 2026. Bryan Jordan clarified M&A focus on the core franchise (2026+ timing) and increased confidence in crossing $100 billion due to an improved regulatory environment.

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Janet Lee's questions to FIRST HORIZON (FHN) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Janet Lee from TD Cowen sought more color on FHN Financial's trading revenue, specifically what drove the 40% increase in ADR in Q3, its sustainability, and if it was related to rate cuts or securities repositioning. She also asked about the change in C&I loan growth pace and the company's M&A strategy regarding contiguous vs. core footprint and crossing the $100 billion asset threshold.

Answer

CFO Hope Dmuchowski explained that FHN Financial's momentum picked up before the rate cut signal and continued into early October, with no significant balance sheet repositioning noted. She linked sustainability to future rate cuts and yield curve shape. Chief Credit Officer Thomas Hung clarified that the C&I loan growth pace was consistent, with minor lumpiness. Chairman, President, and CEO Bryan Jordan reiterated a focus on the core franchise for M&A in 2026 and beyond, expressing increased confidence in crossing the $100 billion asset threshold.

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