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    Jared David Shaw

    Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Barclays Capital

    Jared David Shaw is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Barclays Capital specializing in financials, with a particular focus on regional banks, diversified banks, and insurance brokers. He covers 43 stocks in the sector, including companies like UMB Financial, delivering investment calls with a success rate of approximately 44-58% and an average annual return between 5.9% and 7%. Shaw began his analyst career at Piper Sandler and FBR Capital Markets, later advancing to roles at People's Securities, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, and Wells Fargo Securities, before joining Barclays in late 2023. He holds an undergraduate degree from George Washington University and maintains registration as a broker with FINRA.

    Jared David Shaw's questions to FIRST INTERSTATE BANCSYSTEM (FIBK) leadership

    Jared David Shaw's questions to FIRST INTERSTATE BANCSYSTEM (FIBK) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jared David Shaw of Barclays asked about the bank's long-term capital targets, specifically what management considers an appropriate CET1 ratio given the bank's risk profile. He also inquired about the stability of DDA balances, asking if they have reached a floor. Lastly, he questioned the potential risk to the industrial and warehouse loan portfolio from potential tariffs and reduced imports.

    Answer

    Deputy CFO David Della Camera stated that while the bank is very comfortable with its current mid-12% CET1 ratio, it does not have a specific external target but has appropriate capital to consider various options. He also noted that DDA balances have stabilized in the 25-26% range of total deposits and are not expected to shift materially. CEO James Reuter addressed tariff risk, explaining that bankers are having robust conversations with customers, many of whom are better prepared for supply chain issues post-COVID, and he does not see an outsized concern in that area.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to BankUnited (BKU) leadership

    Jared David Shaw's questions to BankUnited (BKU) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jared David Shaw inquired about the impact of spread compression on new loans, the competitive environment, the drivers behind the growth in nonperforming loans, and what percentage of new DDA growth is subject to earnings credit rates (ECR).

    Answer

    CEO Raj Singh noted that CRE lending spreads tightened in Q1 but are now widening again, while C&I spreads are steady. CFO Leslie Lunak explained that the growth in nonperformers was not concentrated in any specific industry, describing it as 'cats and dogs'. She also clarified that while most commercial accounts are subject to ECR, it's not to a great extent for the new growth.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to BankUnited (BKU) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jared David Shaw of Barclays inquired about the duration of recent FHLB borrowings and broker deposits, and whether deposit repricing was meeting expectations. He also asked about the drivers for the flatter margin guidance and sought clarity on the balance between loan paydown activity and pipeline strength.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Leslie Lunak stated the FHLB advances are very short-term and broker deposits are mostly 6-month money. CEO Raj Singh added that deposit repricing has been in line with models, with a 78% beta on the first rate cut. Ms. Lunak and Mr. Singh attributed the flatter margin outlook primarily to a lower-than-expected starting point for NIDDA balances. Executive Thomas Cornish noted that Q3 loan payoffs were unusually high and expects Q4 production to outpace them, reiterating guidance for mid-single-digit core commercial loan growth for the year.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to BANC OF CALIFORNIA (BANC) leadership

    Jared David Shaw's questions to BANC OF CALIFORNIA (BANC) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jared David Shaw asked about the decline in the allowance for credit losses (ACL) ratio, noting it runs counter to the trend of peers adding to reserves. He questioned if the ratio would continue to fall with the loan mix shift and if management might add a qualitative overlay to stabilize it.

    Answer

    President and CEO Jared Wolff acknowledged the optics but defended the underlying credit quality, highlighting a 1.43% coverage ratio on the core loan portfolio, excluding low-risk categories. He stated a preference to not let the ratio decline further and expressed hope that proactive risk-rating migrations would help stabilize or grow the ACL ratio in subsequent quarters.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to BANC OF CALIFORNIA (BANC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jared Shaw asked if the 11% CET1 target was still a firm threshold for considering capital actions and whether new loan spreads were compressing.

    Answer

    CEO Jared Wolff indicated that 11% CET1 is not a firm line in the sand and that capital actions could be considered below that level, depending on overall performance and peer comparisons. He noted that while there is some spread compression in permanent multifamily loans (repricing from low-4s to low-to-mid-6s), spreads in other commercial areas remain strong in the mid-7s and higher.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (VLY) leadership

    Jared David Shaw's questions to VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (VLY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jared Shaw asked if management still expects the net interest margin (NIM) to reach or exceed 3.10% by year-end. He also inquired if the allowance build was due to a qualitative overlay or a model change, and what the appetite was for further CRE loan sales.

    Answer

    Executive Travis Lan affirmed that they 'absolutely do' expect to reach a 3.10% NIM by year-end, driven by funding mix improvements and asset repricing. Chief Credit Officer Mark Saeger explained the allowance build was due to a loan mix shift towards C&I, which carries a higher reserve, not a change in the economic model. Both Travis Lan and CEO Ira Robbins stated they are comfortable with the current CRE portfolio and see no need for additional loan sales.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (VLY) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jared David Shaw of Barclays asked for the yield on the sold loan portfolio, clarification on the gain/loss on sale line item, the company's appetite for more CRE sales, and the outlook for technology-related expenses.

    Answer

    Executive Travis Lan reported the yield on the sold portfolio was slightly above 7% and clarified the income statement line also included a ~$2 million gain from residential mortgage sales. He stated that more large CRE sales are not anticipated. CEO Ira Robbins added that core operating expenses have contracted year-over-year, with further efficiency opportunities available post-core conversion.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to FIRST HAWAIIAN (FHB) leadership

    Jared David Shaw's questions to FIRST HAWAIIAN (FHB) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jared David Shaw asked about the allowance for credit losses (ACL), questioning whether the recent reserve build was front-loading potential economic weakness or if the ACL ratio could increase further. He also inquired about the potential impact of tariffs on the dealer floor plan business.

    Answer

    Chief Risk Officer Lea Nakamura clarified that the reserve increase was driven by the quantitative component of their CECL model, not a qualitative overlay, making future ratio moves hard to predict. CEO Bob Harrison added that the dealer floor plan business is resilient, with strong operators who can pivot. He stated that while credit risk is not a major concern, the impact on loan balances from tariffs is uncertain and depends on manufacturer support and other unknown factors.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to FIRST HAWAIIAN (FHB) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jared David Shaw questioned the drivers behind the elevated loan payoff activity, particularly in C&I, and asked for details on the floorplan growth strategy. He also inquired about the planned aggressiveness of the share buyback program and the bank's CET1 capital targets.

    Answer

    CEO Bob Harrison attributed the payoffs to competitive pricing from a mainland lender on a few syndicated floorplan deals where the bank was a participant, not the lead. He clarified that future floorplan growth will come from a mix of new and existing customers without geographic expansion. Regarding capital, Harrison stated the bank expects to stick to its $40 million authorization for 2024 and will reassess for 2025, noting the bank is comfortably above its informal 12% CET1 minimum target.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to POPULAR (BPOP) leadership

    Jared David Shaw's questions to POPULAR (BPOP) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jared David Shaw asked if government incentives for onshoring in Puerto Rico were attracting industries beyond pharmaceuticals. He also requested more detail on the growth expectations for the construction loan portfolio.

    Answer

    CEO Ignacio Alvarez and CFO Jorge Garcia confirmed that while incentives are broad, they are most impactful for high-margin sectors like pharma, medical devices, and aerospace. They also noted recent traction with technology and software development firms. Regarding construction, Jorge Garcia explained that while developers are currently accelerating projects, this could lead to future payoffs that slow net growth. CRO Lidio Soriano added that federal funds for low-income housing should provide a future boost to construction activity in Puerto Rico.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORPORATION (WAL) leadership

    Jared David Shaw's questions to WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORPORATION (WAL) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jared David Shaw of Barclays Capital asked for details on the drivers of C&I loan growth and inquired about the rationale behind the recent REIT preferred equity capital raise.

    Answer

    President and CEO Kenneth Vecchione stated that Q2 loan growth is expected to top Q1, driven by momentum in the national homebuilder, warehouse lending, and lender finance groups. Chief Financial Officer Dale Gibbons confirmed the capital raise was to boost the Tier 1 leverage ratio and explained that issuing from the REIT subsidiary provided significant after-tax cost savings.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to Cadence Bank (CADE) leadership

    Jared David Shaw's questions to Cadence Bank (CADE) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jared David Shaw asked about the impact of competitive pressures on loan yields and how that affects the net interest margin outlook for the rest of the year. He also inquired about the bank's capital priorities, specifically the balance between M&A, buybacks, and organic growth.

    Answer

    President Edward Braddock acknowledged seeing yield compression of around 25 basis points on high-quality deals. However, CFO Valerie Toalson stated that despite this, the bank anticipates a fairly stable net interest margin for the year, as it can match loan yield movements with adjustments to deposit costs. CEO James Rollins affirmed that capital priorities remain unchanged, with organic growth as the primary goal, while keeping all other tools like M&A available when appropriate.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to SYNOVUS FINANCIAL (SNV) leadership

    Jared David Shaw's questions to SYNOVUS FINANCIAL (SNV) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jared David Shaw questioned the status of a previously disclosed nonperforming office loan, the timing of the increased weighting to an adverse economic scenario in the ACL, and the outlook for share repurchases.

    Answer

    Executive Jennifer Demba confirmed the charge-off was related to the nonperforming office loan, with a full resolution expected soon. CFO Andrew Gregory explained the adverse scenario weighting was as of March 31 and detailed the potential impact of a 100% adverse scenario. He added that share repurchases will be balanced against near-term loan growth opportunities, using strong earnings to maintain capital stability.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to SYNOVUS FINANCIAL (SNV) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jared David Shaw from Barclays asked about the outlook for loan growth and production in 2025, requesting a refresh on the remaining balance of non-core loans being rationalized and the financial impact of hedge maturities in Q4 and early 2025.

    Answer

    CEO Kevin Blair expressed optimism for a return to growth in 2025, citing rising loan production and the near completion of the $1.8 billion non-relationship loan runoff. CFO Jamie Gregory detailed that $750 million in hedges with an average rate of 95 basis points will mature in Q4, and the effective rate on the hedge portfolio will increase in early 2025, diminishing its headwind over time.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to FIRST HORIZON (FHN) leadership

    Jared David Shaw's questions to FIRST HORIZON (FHN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jared Shaw asked for the specific change in the downside weighting for the reserve model, the sustainability of the fixed income revenue mix, quarter-to-date ADR trends, and the future outlook for the 'outside services' expense line after its recent decline.

    Answer

    Chief Credit Officer Thomas Hung and CFO Hope Dmuchowski clarified the reserve build was due to both a worsening in Moody's baseline scenario and a qualitative overlay reflecting increased uncertainty. On fixed income, Dmuchowski noted the non-ADR revenue was elevated due to timing but not indicative of a new sustainable level. Chairman, President and CEO Bryan Jordan commented that April ADRs have been volatile. Regarding expenses, Dmuchowski and Jordan explained the Q1 drop in outside services was due to the completion of major tech projects (GL, Treasury) and that while the line will ebb and flow, it is built into their flexible expense guidance.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to FIRST HORIZON (FHN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jared David Shaw questioned the company's capital strategy, asking what conditions would be necessary to operate with a CET1 ratio below the 10.5% target. He also requested details on the rise in CRE non-performing loans (NPLs) and the outlook for the allowance ratio.

    Answer

    CEO Bryan Jordan explained that the CET1 target is dynamic, influenced by economic capital models, stress tests, and portfolio mix, not just a fixed number. Regarding credit, he stated the NPL increase was driven by slower-than-anticipated lease-ups in multifamily projects. He expressed confidence, noting that over 60% of commercial NPLs remain current on payments. The allowance will depend on future economic outlooks.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to FIRST HORIZON (FHN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jared David Shaw of Barclays Capital asked for an update on the pricing and terms for the $18 billion in promotional deposits maturing in Q4, the bank's appetite for brokered deposits, and whether NII is nearing a trough.

    Answer

    CFO Hope Dmuchowski detailed that promotional money market rates have dropped to 4.25% from 5.05% last quarter and the guarantee period was shortened to 45 days. She clarified that brokered deposits are used secondarily to client funds, often for match-funding mortgage warehouse loans. She also noted that the NII outlook depends heavily on mortgage activity.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS (PNFP) leadership

    Jared David Shaw's questions to PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS (PNFP) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jared David Shaw of Wells Fargo & Company inquired about changes to the CECL baseline assumption, the dependency of BHG's growth on the securitization market, and which fee categories were offsetting the higher BHG target.

    Answer

    Harold Carpenter (Executive) confirmed the CECL baseline was unchanged but that the adverse scenario influences qualitative factors. He stated BHG has ample capacity through its bank channel for loan sales and plans for another ABS issuance later in the year. Carpenter also noted that underperformance in other equity investments was being offset by BHG's strength.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS (PNFP) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jared David Shaw inquired about the revenue assumptions underlying the target incentive compensation payout, what factors could drive net interest income (NII) above the guided range, and the strategic expectations for BHG.

    Answer

    Harold Carpenter (executive) stated that the midpoint of the guidance ranges aligns with a target incentive payout. He and M. Turner (executive) identified higher-than-expected loan growth, particularly from a pickup in broad economic demand beyond market share gains, as the key driver for potential NII upside. Regarding BHG, Harold Carpenter noted its focus is on strengthening its balance sheet and enhancing its production platform.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to BANK OF HAWAII (BOH) leadership

    Jared David Shaw's questions to BANK OF HAWAII (BOH) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jared David Shaw from Barclays questioned the bank's target for its fixed-rate asset mix, the outlook for its office loan portfolio given upcoming maturities, and what catalysts would be needed for the bank to resume its share buyback program.

    Answer

    CFO Dean Shigemura stated the current 57% fixed-rate asset mix is the near-term target. Both he and CEO Peter Ho expressed confidence in the office portfolio, clarifying that maturities are more spread out than suggested (39% by 2027) and credit remains stable. CEO Peter Ho explained that a clearer line of sight into credit, the economy, and interest rates is required before restarting buybacks, anticipating capital will continue to build via retained earnings.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to EAST WEST BANCORP (EWBC) leadership

    Jared David Shaw's questions to EAST WEST BANCORP (EWBC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jared David Shaw inquired about the timing and drivers of the increased expense guidance, particularly investments in people and technology, and whether the increased share repurchase authorization signals a change in capital deployment philosophy.

    Answer

    Chief Financial Officer Christopher Del Moral-Niles explained that investments are ongoing to support future growth and that revenue growth in dollar terms is expected to outpace expense growth, ensuring positive operating leverage. Regarding buybacks, he reiterated the bank's philosophy remains opportunistic, leveraging its strong capital position as a key differentiator, especially given its consistent 17% return on tangible capital.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to EAST WEST BANCORP (EWBC) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jared David Shaw from Barclays followed up on capital, asking about management's priorities given the rising capital levels and lack of buybacks. He also inquired about the strategy for time deposits and if there's a maximum percentage of total deposits the bank is targeting.

    Answer

    CFO Christopher Del Moral-Niles outlined capital priorities: 1) supporting customer loan growth, 2) a competitive dividend, 3) considering non-organic opportunities, and lastly, 4) share buybacks. Chairman and CEO Dominic Ng explained the strategy was to attract funds with a higher rate early in the year and then roll them over at lower rates, noting a successful 100 basis point drop in prospective CD pricing.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to WEBSTER FINANCIAL (WBS) leadership

    Jared David Shaw's questions to WEBSTER FINANCIAL (WBS) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jared David Shaw from Barclays asked about the expected net interest margin (NIM) trajectory for 2025 following the recent securities repositioning and questioned the bank's capital strategy regarding its CET1 target and potential for share buybacks.

    Answer

    CFO William Holland projected a 2025 NIM of 3.35% to 3.40%, with the repositioning adding about $18 million to 2025 NII. CEO John Ciulla added that while deploying capital for loan growth or strategic acquisitions is the priority, returning capital to shareholders via buybacks is anticipated in 2025, contingent on market conditions.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to WEBSTER FINANCIAL (WBS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jared David Shaw from Barclays inquired about the loan growth outlook for 2025, specifically asking about potential headwinds from commercial real estate (CRE) attrition and whether overall growth could accelerate. He also asked about expectations for HSA Bank deposit growth during the upcoming enrollment season.

    Answer

    CEO John Ciulla projected modest loan demand for 2025, forecasting around 5% growth, and noted that reduced CRE exposure creates capacity for new, attractive relationships. President and COO Luis Massiani expressed optimism for the HSA enrollment season, citing technology investments and expecting "similar to slightly more faster deposit growth in 2025" compared to 2024.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to NYCB leadership

    Jared David Shaw's questions to NYCB leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Inquired about the end-of-quarter spot rate for deposit costs, the expected deposit beta in a rate-cutting environment, and the future trajectory of the multi-family loan reserve level.

    Answer

    The spot rate on savings is 5%, down over 50 basis points recently. They are modeling a 50 beta for overall interest-bearing deposits. The multi-family reserve level is not expected to decrease significantly in the next couple of quarters and will remain fairly consistent, balancing criticized/classified portfolio expectations with charge-offs.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to NYCB leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Asked about the incremental cost of deposit growth and the customer value proposition, and questioned what portion of the quarter's Non-Performing Loan (NPL) growth was driven by the bank's 18-month forward-looking credit review methodology.

    Answer

    The bank explained that deposit growth is a mix of relationship-based pricing in private client and commercial, and promotional pricing in retail to attract new customers for cross-selling. The NPL growth is a two-step process: the forward-looking review identifies at-risk loans (classified as substandard), and the subsequent receipt of appraisals confirming value shortfalls triggers the move to non-accrual status.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/ (ONB) leadership

    Jared David Shaw's questions to OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/ (ONB) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jared David Shaw from Barclays asked about the specific drivers for the guided decline in fee income for Q4 and the company's strategy regarding its rapid capital build, including the potential for buybacks.

    Answer

    CFO John Moran attributed the expected Q4 fee income decline to seasonality in mortgage, a particularly strong Q3 in capital markets that may not repeat, and other non-run-rate items. Regarding capital, he acknowledged the strong 11% CET1 ratio and rapid build rate, suggesting buybacks could be a consideration next year, though the company remains sensitive to the earn-back period.

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    Jared David Shaw's questions to COLUMBIA BANKING SYSTEM (COLB) leadership

    Jared David Shaw's questions to COLUMBIA BANKING SYSTEM (COLB) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Jared David Shaw of Barclays asked for clarification on the rise in residential non-performing loans, the outlook for the mortgage banking division, and the reason for a $7.7 million incentive compensation reversal.

    Answer

    Chief Credit Officer Frank Namdar and EVP and CFO Ron Farnsworth explained the increase in residential non-performers was due to the expiration of COVID-era modification flags and did not require a meaningful provision. President of Consumer Banking Christopher Merrywell described the mortgage business as stable and consistent, with 80% of production being saleable. Ron Farnsworth clarified the incentive comp reversal was due to terminating certain programs as part of the expense initiative, and that a normalized Q2 operating expense run rate would be $270.2 million.

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