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Jason Daniel Gabelman

Director of Energy Equity Research at TD Securities

Jason Daniel Gabelman is a Director of Energy Equity Research at TD Cowen, specializing in integrated oil, refining, sustainability, LNG, and next-generation fuels. He covers a range of companies including Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT), ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and DINO, and has delivered a success rate of up to 62.75% and average returns of approximately 8.67%, with notable calls such as a +116% return on MPC. Gabelman began his analyst career before 2014, issuing hundreds of ratings, and has held director-level roles at TD Cowen following prior experience in financial services. He is professionally credentialed with FINRA registration and securities licenses through TD Securities.

Jason Daniel Gabelman's questions to VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX (VLO) leadership

Jason Daniel Gabelman's questions to VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX (VLO) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Jason Daniel Gabelman asked about the impact of Russian refining disruptions, particularly from Ukraine drone strikes, on product exports and how much of the current product strength is due to actual disruptions versus geopolitical risk premium. He also inquired about Valero's plans to resupply the market after the Benicia shutdown, specifically if imports from Asia would be necessary to meet contractual obligations.

Answer

Gary Simmons, Executive Vice President and COO, indicated that drone strikes have been effective, targeting higher complexity Russian refining capacity, leading to a ramp-up of lower complexity capacity. He clarified that the current market spike is more due to future geopolitical risk premium than immediate disruptions, though Russian product exports are falling. Lane Riggs, Chairman, CEO and President, stated that Valero intends to continue supplying its wholesale business contractual obligations after the Benicia shutdown, leveraging waterborne optionality to source products from anywhere in the world.

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Jason Daniel Gabelman's questions to VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX (VLO) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Jason Daniel Gabelman inquired about Valero's plans to resupply the market after the Benicia refinery shutdown, asking if the company would need to import products from Asia to meet contractual obligations.

Answer

Lane Riggs, Chairman, CEO and President, stated that Valero intends to continue supplying its contractual obligations for its wholesale business after the shutdown. He clarified that products could be sourced from anywhere in the world, leveraging waterborne optionality rather than committing to a single market or pipeline.

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Jason Daniel Gabelman's questions to DARLING INGREDIENTS (DAR) leadership

Jason Daniel Gabelman's questions to DARLING INGREDIENTS (DAR) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Jason Daniel Gabelman asked about the timeline for companies complying with RIN obligations and its potential impact on RIN prices, specifically the December 1 deadline for 2024 RINs. He also inquired about the conditions needed to gain confidence to restart DGD1, given improved DGD margins.

Answer

Robert Day (CFO) expects the December 1 deadline for 2024 RINs to hold but does not anticipate a significant lift in RIN prices, as ample 2025 RINs are available for 2024 obligations. He expects a lift if 2025 enforcement dates are clarified. Regarding DGD1, Robert Day (CFO) stated that a restart depends on soybean oil being profitable for a long enough outlook to justify burning a catalyst, acknowledging they are closer to that point than before.

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Jason Daniel Gabelman's questions to DARLING INGREDIENTS (DAR) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Jason Daniel Gabelman asked about the timeline for companies complying with RIN obligations and whether the December 1 deadline for 2024 RINs would catalyze stronger RIN prices. He also inquired about the specific conditions needed to restart DGD1.

Answer

CFO Bob Day expects the December 1 deadline for 2024 RINs to hold but not significantly impact RIN prices, as 2025 RINs can satisfy 2024 obligations. He noted that clarity on 2025 enforcement dates (March 31, 2026) would be a more likely catalyst. Regarding DGD1, Day stated it would restart when soybean oil becomes profitable with a sufficient margin and long-term outlook to justify burning up a catalyst.

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