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    Jason Fairclough

    Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

    Jason Fairclough is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, specializing in metals and mining sector research. He provides coverage for major companies such as Glencore, ArcelorMittal, and Horizonte Minerals, and is recognized for insightful analysis that influences market perception on large-cap mining deals. Fairclough has held prominent analyst roles at the firm for over a decade, previously serving as a lead regional analyst since at least 2009, and is cited frequently by industry publications for his expertise and recommendations. His credentials include senior research appointments and a notable track record in covering multinational natural resources companies.

    Jason Fairclough's questions to RIO TINTO (RIO) leadership

    Jason Fairclough's questions to RIO TINTO (RIO) leadership • H1 2025

    Question

    Jason Fairclough from Bank of America Merrill Lynch inquired about the ramp-up schedule for the Simandou iron ore project, following the accelerated first production, and asked about key organizational learnings from the project's rapid execution with Chinese partners.

    Answer

    CEO Jakob Stausholm confirmed the first shipment is scheduled for November but clarified the full ramp-up to 120 million tonnes will occur over 2.5 years, constrained by port capacity. He highlighted that significant learnings came from their Chinese partners' engineering ecosystem, speed, and standardized designs, suggesting Rio Tinto must learn from China's efficiency to execute projects faster and cheaper in the future.

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    Jason Fairclough's questions to RIO TINTO (RIO) leadership • H1 2025

    Question

    Jason Fairclough of Bank of America Merrill Lynch inquired about the ramp-up schedule for the Simandou project following the accelerated timeline for first production, and asked about the key organizational learnings from the project's rapid execution.

    Answer

    CEO Jakob Stausholm detailed that the Simandou ramp-up will occur over 2.5 years, initially to 60 million tonnes with the first port and then to 120 million tonnes once the second port is complete. He emphasized significant learnings from Chinese partners regarding engineering efficiency, standardized designs, and contractor commitment, which Rio Tinto aims to apply to other projects.

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    Jason Fairclough's questions to RIO TINTO (RIO) leadership • H1 2025

    Question

    Jason Fairclough of Bank of America Merrill Lynch inquired about the ramp-up profile for the Simandou project, given the accelerated timeline for first production, and asked about the key organizational learnings from the project's rapid execution that could be applied elsewhere.

    Answer

    CEO Jakob Stausholm explained that the Simandou ramp-up to 120 million tonnes will occur over 2.5 years, constrained initially by port capacity. He emphasized that Rio Tinto has gained significant insights from its Chinese partners regarding engineering efficiency and standardized designs, which the company intends to leverage in future projects to accelerate timelines and reduce costs.

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    Jason Fairclough's questions to Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS/ADR (ERELY) leadership

    Jason Fairclough's questions to Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS/ADR (ERELY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jason Fairclough of Bank of America inquired about the sustainability of the Q1 working capital reduction and sought clarification on the seemingly light Q1 production and sales figures. He also asked for a breakdown of the working capital change between price and volume effects.

    Answer

    Executive Idil Onay confirmed that the current working capital level is sustainable for the year. She explained that lower Q1 production resulted from planned maintenance and did not affect sales, reaffirming the full-year sales guidance. Onay clarified that the working capital change was approximately 40% due to price and 60% due to tonnage.

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    Jason Fairclough's questions to Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS/ADR (ERELY) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jason Fairclough from Bank of America inquired about the sustainability of the recent working capital reduction and the reasons for the lower-than-usual production and sales volumes in Q1.

    Answer

    Idil Onay, an executive, explained that the current working capital level is sustainable for the remainder of the year. She clarified that the lower Q1 production was a temporary situation due to planned maintenance activities and had no negative impact on sales figures, with the full-year sales guidance of 8 to 8.2 million tonnes remaining intact. Onay also noted the working capital change was driven 40% by price and 60% by volume.

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    Jason Fairclough's questions to Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS/ADR (ERELY) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jason Fairclough of BofA Securities inquired about the 2025 outlook for EBITDA per ton following a significant drop in Q4, the company's dividend policy in light of its balance sheet and leverage, and the expected timeline for news regarding the new gold mine business.

    Answer

    Idil Onay, an executive at Erdemir, projected a 2025 EBITDA per ton of $90-$100, expecting sequential quarterly improvement driven by cost reductions from new investments. Onay confirmed the dividend policy is unchanged but the final decision rests with the Board, which will consider the year's cash needs and CapEx. Regarding the gold mine, she stated that an official reserve report is in progress, but a specific timeline for its announcement is not yet available.

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    Jason Fairclough's questions to Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari TAS/ADR (ERELY) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jason Fairclough of Bank of America inquired about the 2025 EBITDA per ton outlook following a Q4 decline, the company's dividend policy in light of its leverage, and the expected timeline for news on the new gold mine venture.

    Answer

    Idil Onay (Executive) guided for a 2025 EBITDA per ton between $90-$100, expecting sequential quarterly improvement driven by cost reductions from new investments. She stated the dividend policy remains unchanged but the Board's decision in late February/early March will consider current cash needs and the CapEx program. Regarding the gold mine, she confirmed they are working on an official reserve report but could not provide a specific timeline for its announcement.

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    Jason Fairclough's questions to Glencore plc/ADR (GLNCY) leadership

    Jason Fairclough's questions to Glencore plc/ADR (GLNCY) leadership • H1 2023

    Question

    Jason Fairclough of Bank of America asked about the risk of resource nationalism, particularly potential royalty hikes in New South Wales, and the company's strategy for the newly acquired MARA copper project, including potential syndication and the timeline for a final investment decision.

    Answer

    CEO Gary Nagle confirmed they are actively engaging with the New South Wales government on royalty discussions. Regarding the MARA project, Nagle stated there is no need or current plan to syndicate the project, and a final investment decision is contingent on a stronger copper market, not a fixed timeline. CFO Steven Kalmin added that they are now focused on optimizing the project's feasibility as the sole operator.

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    Jason Fairclough's questions to Glencore plc/ADR (GLNCY) leadership • FY 2022

    Question

    Jason Fairclough questioned the company's strategy for inorganic growth in light of declining production volumes and asked for commentary on the significant deliveries of Russian aluminum into LME warehouses in Asia.

    Answer

    CEO Gary Nagle affirmed that M&A is part of Glencore's DNA but will be pursued strictly within their capital allocation framework, with opportunities often sourced through their marketing relationships. Regarding aluminum, he clarified that the deliveries were normal business under a pre-existing, volume-based contract for non-sanctioned Russian metal, which is expected to conclude in H2 2024.

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    Jason Fairclough's questions to Glencore plc/ADR (GLNCY) leadership • Q2 2022

    Question

    Jason Fairclough from BofA Securities inquired about the possibility of delaying the coal business ramp-down given its high profitability and asked about the key drivers behind the record $3.7 billion marketing EBIT, questioning if it was due to increased risk.

    Answer

    CEO Gary Nagle stated firmly that the coal rundown plan is non-negotiable and that the marketing result was driven by unprecedented arbitrage opportunities, not increased risk-taking. CFO Steven Kalmin added that the Value at Risk (VaR) limit was temporarily suspended due to statistical volatility, not a change in risk appetite, and that the business was actively de-risking.

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    Jason Fairclough's questions to Glencore plc/ADR (GLNCY) leadership • Q2 2017

    Question

    Jason Robert Fairclough inquired about Glencore's exposure to cobalt, including the progression of mined and marketed volumes, the market's supply evolution, and the risks of prices rising excessively. He also asked about the company's CapEx guidance relative to its D&A, questioning the potential for production declines in assets like Sudbury nickel and coal.

    Answer

    CEO Ivan Glasenberg addressed the cobalt market, highlighting a potential long-term supply deficit driven by EV demand that may necessitate changes in battery chemistry. CFO Steven Kalmin added that high prices would incentivize new, smaller-scale production outside the DRC. Regarding capital expenditures, Kalmin explained that the high depreciation charge is an accounting legacy of the non-cash Xstrata acquisition and not reflective of sustaining capital needs, asserting the asset base is well-capitalized.

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    Jason Fairclough's questions to BHP Group (BHP) leadership

    Jason Fairclough's questions to BHP Group (BHP) leadership • H1 2017

    Question

    Jason Fairclough sought clarification on the 'value over volume' mantra, questioning how it applies differently to businesses like U.S. onshore, where volumes are held back, versus iron ore, which is seeing record volumes.

    Answer

    CEO Andrew Mackenzie explained that 'value over volume' is a consistent philosophy applied to all capital investment decisions. The principle is to only invest when it generates appropriate returns. Once capital is invested in a low-cost asset, maximizing its productivity—which often means maximizing volume—is the value-maximizing strategy. Therefore, the decision to invest is separate from the decision to operate an existing asset at full capacity.

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