Jason Kupferberg

Jason Kupferberg asked if the organic growth rate for the management solutions segment is expected to improve in the second half from current 4% levels, and for thoughts on a realistic organic growth rate for the MS business once Paycor is fully lapped. He also sought further commentary on the PEO's acceleration and visibility to achieve the 7.5% growth needed in the second half.

Answer

CEO John Gibson stated that modest acceleration in management solutions' organic growth rate is expected in the back half, moving closer to the 5% range over time, but a longer-term rate will be determined after the integration. Regarding PEO, Gibson pointed to the 3-point acceleration seen in Q2 over Q1 as evidence, attributing it to strong execution (double-digit demand, strong retention) and easier year-over-year comps, particularly with the anniversarying of annual enrollment headwinds in October and January. He noted the PEO itself grew high single digits in the quarter, despite agency challenges.

Jason Kupferberg asked about the expected improvement in the Management Solutions segment's organic growth rate in the second half of the fiscal year and a realistic organic growth rate for the MS business once the Paycor acquisition is fully lapped. He also inquired about the factors driving the PEO acceleration needed to meet the 6-8% guidance range for the second half.

Answer

CEO John Gibson stated that modest acceleration is expected for the Management Solutions organic growth rate in the back half of the year, moving closer to the 5% range over time, but a longer-term growth rate will be provided after the current year's integration and synergy realization. Regarding PEO, Mr. Gibson attributed the expected acceleration to a combination of strong execution (double-digit demand, strong retention) and easier year-over-year comparisons, particularly with the anniversarying of annual enrollment headwinds in October and January. He highlighted that the PEO itself grew high single digits in the quarter, despite agency challenges, giving confidence in meeting the guidance.

Jason Kupferberg requested clarification on the specific organic growth outlook for Management Solutions in fiscal 2026 and asked about the visibility into the assumed acceleration from the Q4 exit rate.

Answer

CFO Bob Schrader explained that while separating organic growth is now difficult, the analyst's calculation was reasonable. He clarified the 3% Q4 exit rate was understated due to tough comps and specific headwinds; when adjusted, it aligns with the fiscal 2026 organic guide. President & CEO John Gibson added that the outlook assumes a more stable macro environment than the uniquely uncertain Q4.

Jason Kupferberg from Bank of America Merrill Lynch asked for clarification on the organic growth outlook for Management Solutions in fiscal 2026 and whether the 'steady macro' assumption implies an improvement in client decision-making.

Answer

CFO Bob Schrader explained that while separating the businesses is difficult, the analyst's 4-5% organic growth calculation was reasonable, noting the Q4 exit rate was understated by temporary headwinds. President & CEO John Gibson clarified the macro assumption is for a return to the more stable environment of the first three quarters of fiscal 2025, without the unique shocks seen in Q4.

Jason Kupferberg asked for confirmation on the Q4 growth outlook for Management Solutions excluding ERTC, the macro assumptions in the guidance, and any potential sizing of Paycor revenue synergies.

Answer

Executive Robert Schrader confirmed the analyst's math on Q3 ex-ERTC growth was about right but noted a Q3 tailwind from lower discounting wouldn't repeat in Q4. He added the Q4 outlook assumes Q3 trends continue, including softer checks per client and a potential headwind from market performance on 401(k) asset values. CEO John Gibson reiterated that it is too early to size revenue synergies, with an update to come after the acquisition closes.

Jason Kupferberg asked how Paychex is preparing for the key selling season differently than last year and requested an update on the M&A pipeline.

Answer

CEO John Gibson responded that while the competitive approach is similar, the company will be leaning heavily into advertising its new award-winning products like HR Analytics Premium Plus and Flex Perks. He described the M&A pipeline as the largest he has seen, but emphasized that Paychex will remain disciplined on valuation and synergies, with no M&A included in the current guidance.

Jason Kupferberg asked for an outlook on Q2 growth for the Management Solutions segment and for reasons behind the Q1 operating margin beat.

Answer

Executive Robert Schrader declined to give specific quarterly segment guidance but reiterated the 4% to 5% total revenue growth outlook for Q2, noting the acceleration in the back half of the year is due to easing ERTC compares, not a change in underlying momentum. He attributed the Q1 margin beat to a combination of slightly better-than-expected revenue and favorable expense timing.

Jason Kupferberg from Wells Fargo asked about the expected timeline for new AI partnerships to significantly impact Accenture's revenue and inquired about the sustainability and drivers behind the trend of revenue growth consistently outpacing headcount growth, particularly with increased fixed-price work.

Answer

Julie Sweet, Chair and CEO, indicated that the revenue impact from AI partnerships is tied to overall market enterprise adoption, with expectations reflected in current guidance. Angie Park, CFO, noted that the 7% revenue per person growth this quarter was primarily due to talent rotation and is expected to moderate. Sweet added that the 'breakage' between revenue and headcount has been ongoing since the introduction of RPA and is expected to continue.

Jason Kupferberg inquired about the timeline for new AI partnerships to significantly impact Accenture's revenue, asking if this is a next 12-month dynamic or longer-dated. He also asked about the sustainability and drivers behind the trend of revenue growth consistently outpacing headcount growth, and if Accenture is now experiencing non-linear revenue growth.

Answer

Julie Sweet, Chair and Chief Executive Officer, stated that the impact of AI partnerships on revenue should be viewed in the context of overall market and enterprise adoption, which is already reflected in Accenture's guidance. Angie Park, Chief Financial Officer, noted that revenue per person grew 7% this quarter, primarily driven by talent rotation, and expects this growth to moderate. Ms. Sweet added that the 'breakage' between revenue and headcount growth has been a long-term trend, dating back to the introduction of RPA.

Jason Kupferberg questioned if the 1.0 book-to-bill in consulting would improve given a better macro tone, and asked if Accenture is seeing significant productivity from AI in coding and how those savings are being managed with clients.

Answer

CFO Angie Park responded that the company focuses on the strong trailing twelve-month book-to-bill of 1.2 overall and 1.1 for consulting, as quarterly numbers can be lumpy. CEO Julie Sweet explained that the impact of GenAI on delivery efficiency is already built into their guidance and commercial models. She emphasized that Accenture focuses on the value delivered to clients, which is reflected in the company's overall financial performance and improving pricing.

Jason Kupferberg of Bank of America Merrill Lynch questioned the consulting book-to-bill ratio of 1.0 and asked if improvement is expected. He also inquired about the impact of using AI in software development, including any savings passed to clients or potential deflationary revenue pressure.

Answer

CFO Angie Park noted that quarterly bookings can be lumpy and pointed to the strong trailing-twelve-month consulting book-to-bill of 1.1 as a better indicator. CEO Julie Sweet added that efficiencies from using GenAI in delivery are already factored into guidance and commercial models, and the focus remains on value delivered to clients, which is reflected in improving pricing and overall results.

Jason Kupferberg asked whether clients outside the U.S. Federal business were pausing new initiatives and requested the specific Q2 growth rate and second-half outlook for the U.S. Federal segment.

Answer

CEO Julie T. Sweet confirmed they are not seeing any pauses in client activity outside the federal business, though some discussions are about accelerating cost-saving programs. CFO Angie Park declined to provide a specific Q2 growth rate for the federal business, instead contextualizing the full-year guidance, which assumes 2% to 4% organic growth for the company overall.

Jason Kupferberg asked for clarification on the updated full-year revenue guidance, questioning if the high end still assumes no material improvement in the consulting business. He also inquired about the significant headcount increase over the last two quarters, asking for a breakdown between organic and acquisition-driven hiring and if it signals a bullish outlook.

Answer

CFO Angie Park confirmed that the assumptions for the raised 4% to 7% full-year guidance remain the same: the top end assumes 'more of the same' market conditions, while the bottom end allows for some deterioration. CEO Julie T. Sweet added that the Q1 over-delivery was partly due to large deals materializing better than expected. Regarding headcount, Park noted the 24,000 net adds in Q1 reflect business momentum, with hiring concentrated in India. Sweet added that the hiring supports the organic momentum visible in their guidance.

Jason Kupferberg asked if the fiscal 2025 consulting outlook implies that management is not building in a discretionary spending recovery, and also requested a broad take on the current macro backdrop from the perspective of client decision-makers.

Answer

Incoming CFO Angie Park clarified that the guidance range accounts for different scenarios: the high end assumes the current environment persists, while the low end allows for potential deterioration in discretionary spending. CEO Julie T. Sweet described the macro environment as 'more of the same' and cautious, with no significant change in tone from CEOs, who are focused on their budgeting process for the new year.

Jason Kupferberg asked about the positive health of banking end markets, demand, and pricing, inquiring if this translates to a more bullish view on the structural growth rate for the banking segment over the next couple of years, specifically regarding the medium-term target of approximately 3% organic growth. He also followed up on the 2026 revenue outlook, asking if it aligns with the investor day medium-term guide and if there are any one-off headwinds or tailwinds to consider at the segment or total company level.

Answer

CEO Stephanie Ferris expressed confidence in bank technology spending, particularly in digital, payments, and bank modernization. She noted that the banking business is performing at or ahead of its organic basis, with M&A contributing positively in 2025, providing strong confidence for 2026. While not ready to raise the midterm guidance, she highlighted strong end markets, M&A benefits, and successful commercial excellence initiatives as key drivers. CFO James Kehoe added that banking is sizably outperforming capital markets, with recurring revenue around 4.5%+, and emphasized a shift towards higher-margin recurring revenue products like payments, digital, and core, indicating a strong quality discussion for next year.

Jason Kupferberg asked about the positive health of banking end markets, including demand and pricing, and whether this translates to a more bullish view on the structural growth rate for the banking segment over the next couple of years, especially given current performance above the 3% organic growth medium-term target. He also inquired about the 2026 outlook, specifically regarding margin expansion (60+ basis points) and revenue consistency with the investor day guide, asking about any one-off headwinds or tailwinds for revenue at the segment or total company level.

Answer

CEO Stephanie Ferris confirmed strong technology spend in banking, driven by digital solutions, payments innovation, and lending modernization. She noted the banking business is performing at or ahead of organic and M&A expectations for 2025, providing confidence for 2026, but stated it's too early to raise the medium-term guidance. CFO James Kehoe added that banking is sizably outperforming capital markets, with recurring revenue around 4.5%+, and highlighted a strong shift towards higher-margin recurring revenue products like payments and digital for 2026.

Jason Kupferberg asked about the drivers for the expected acceleration in Banking segment margins and revenue in the second half of the year.

Answer

CEO Stephanie Ferris and CFO James Kehoe attributed the expected margin expansion to a positive revenue mix shift, ongoing execution of cost-saving programs, and easier year-over-year comparisons. For revenue acceleration, Kehoe stated their confidence is high because it is driven by 150 basis points of growth from 'commercial excellence'—primarily revenue from deals already sold in 2024, a record year for core wins—combined with very high client retention rates.

Jason Kupferberg sought clarification on the 2025 banking outlook, specifically the recurring vs. nonrecurring growth split and the Worldpay revenue contribution. He also asked about the Capital Markets outlook relative to Investor Day targets.

Answer

CFO James Kehoe stated that 2025 recurring revenue in Banking will grow slightly faster than the segment's overall adjusted growth. He and CEO Stephanie Ferris clarified that Worldpay revenue will be a slight headwind in 2025. For Capital Markets, Mr. Kehoe explained the guide reflects a lower M&A contribution than the long-term target and a tougher comp due to a strong Q4 finish.

Jason Kupferberg sought clarification on the revised full-year outlook for the Banking segment, asking what prompted the change. He also asked for factors to consider for the 2025 outlook relative to the long-term targets provided at the Investor Day.

Answer

CFO James Kehoe explained the slight downward revision for the Banking guide was due to two factors: a tougher comparison basis from a prior-period accounting revision and minor, client-requested delays of a few conversions into H1 2025. Regarding 2025, CEO Stephanie Ferris and Kehoe stated that while they are not yet providing a formal guide, they stand by their Investor Day commitments and pointed to the accelerating growth trends in H2 2024 as positive indicators.

Jason Kupferberg inquired about the significant upside in recurring gross profit, asking for a rank order of surprising factors like GPV or Toast Capital, and questioned if the Q4 guidance, which suggests a modest quarter-over-quarter decline, accounts for typical seasonality or other factors.

Answer

CFO Elena Gomez acknowledged the strong Q3 results, noting that the guidance for Q4 reflects a balanced view of GPV given macro dynamics. She confirmed that strong GPV trends in the summer and a robust quarter from Toast Capital contributed to the Q3 upside, but these are normalizing in Q4. She expressed confidence in the given guidance while always aiming to outperform.

Jason Kupferberg from Wells Fargo inquired about the drivers behind the significant upside in recurring gross profit during the quarter, asking management to rank-order contributing factors like GPV and Toast Capital. He also sought clarification on the Q4 guidance, which suggested a modest quarter-over-quarter decline in recurring gross profit despite typical seasonality.

Answer

CFO Elena Gomez confirmed strong GPV trends in the summer and a robust quarter from Toast Capital as key upside drivers. Regarding Q4 guidance, she noted that while the company aims to outperform, the guidance reflects a balanced view of dynamic macro conditions and a normalization of Toast Capital's strong Q3 performance.

On behalf of Jason Kupferberg of Bank of America, an analyst asked about the composition of the 7,000 net new adds (new openings vs. competitive takeaways) and requested an update on churn metrics.

Answer

CEO Aman Narang responded that the trends for the 7,000 net adds were largely consistent with the past, representing a good mix of new restaurant openings and switches from existing restaurants. Regarding churn, he stated it remains largely aligned with historical disclosures, noting that when churn does occur, it is typically with smaller restaurants, resulting in a smaller impact on ARR.

Jason Kupferberg inquired about the nature of initial Genius wins, specifically if they are primarily from non-cloud solutions or competitive takeaways, and asked for an update on the overall pricing environment, including any increased aggression or fee rollbacks by competitors.

Answer

CEO Cameron Bready and President and COO Bob Cortopassi confirmed Genius wins are a mix, with 90% of new sales going to new customers, and strong momentum including a 20% increase in new locations and a 75% increase in new Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) since June. Cameron Bready described the pricing environment as constructive, emphasizing value-based pricing and competitiveness without being the low-cost provider. He noted a competitor's fee rollback was a 'back-book pricing action' and highlighted Global Payments' enhanced pricing power post-Worldpay acquisition.

Jason Kupferberg inquired about the nature of initial Genius wins, specifically whether they are from non-cloud solutions or competitive takeaways, and asked for an update on the overall pricing environment, including any observed price aggression.

Answer

Cameron Bready (CEO, Global Payments) and Bob Cortopassi (President and COO, Global Payments) highlighted strong Genius momentum, with 90% of new sales to new customers, increased new locations, and a 75% rise in new monthly recurring revenue since June. Cameron Bready also stated that the pricing environment remains constructive, focusing on value-based pricing and harmonizing structures across portfolios, without leading with price.

Jason Kupferberg asked about the rollout plan for the new Genius POS platform, specifically the focus on new versus existing clients and managing potential attrition. He also inquired about the pro forma Worldpay business, asking if its recent growth was organic and what the share buyback assumptions are for 2026 and 2027.

Answer

CEO Cameron Bready and COO Bob Cortopassi explained the Genius rollout will initially be a 'pull-based' offering focused on the front book, with no plans to force back-book conversions, thus minimizing attrition risk. Bready confirmed Worldpay's growth is organic, driven by investments in its e-commerce and platforms businesses. CFO Josh Whipple detailed the capital return plan, expecting over $2 billion in share repurchases in 2026 and over $3 billion in 2027, supporting the mid-teens EPS growth target while deleveraging.

Jason Kupferberg from Bank of America sought clarification on the 6% Merchant growth guidance for 2025, specifically the contribution from acquisitions, and asked for details on the dollar-based EPS guide after factoring in the new stock-based compensation expense.

Answer

CFO Joshua Whipple confirmed that the CaixaBank payments acquisition would contribute about 50 basis points to 2025 Merchant growth and that the recent orchestration platform acquisition was de minimis. He stated that 2025 stock-based compensation would be approximately $170 million and reiterated the 10% to 11% constant currency EPS growth guide, noting a 175 basis point headwind from FX.

Jason Kupferberg asked about the drivers behind the better-than-expected Merchant segment margin performance in Q3. He also inquired about a reasonable future growth rate for POS and software bookings, given the strong but lumpy 30% growth in the quarter.

Answer

CFO Josh Whipple credited the margin outperformance to a favorable revenue mix, ongoing EVO payment synergies, and strong execution. CEO Cameron Bready added that growth is concentrated in attractive, higher-margin areas. Regarding bookings, Bready acknowledged the quarterly lumpiness but stated the overall goal is to maintain strong double-digit growth, which is key to the merchant acceleration expected in 2026-2027.

Jason Kupferberg inquired about Mastercard's progress in opening new consumer acceptance channels, specifically rent, catalysts for unlocking volumes, potential changes in interchange models, other emerging verticals, and the current M&A pipeline since the Recorded Future acquisition.

Answer

CEO Michael Miebach noted progress in underpenetrated verticals like rent, citing partnerships with Bilt in the U.S. and Renti in New Zealand, and mentioned continued focus on healthcare and tourism. He emphasized leveraging existing solutions with nuanced differentiators. CFO Sachin Mehra reiterated that Mastercard's M&A philosophy remains strategy-led, focusing primarily on services to deliver synergistic value, with a robust pipeline that is carefully filtered.

Jason Kupferberg inquired about opening new consumer acceptance channels, specifically rent, catalysts for unlocking volumes, potential interchange model changes, emerging acceptance verticals, and the M&A pipeline.

Answer

CEO Michael Miebach noted progress in underpenetrated verticals like rent (e.g., Bilt, Renti) through co-brand and services capabilities, also mentioning focus on healthcare and tourism. CFO Sachin Mehra reiterated Mastercard's M&A philosophy as strategy-led, primarily focusing on services, with a robust pipeline aimed at delivering synergistic value.

Jason Kupferberg asked about the factors contributing to the flat pays per control (PPC) in Q1, the confidence in maintaining this flat outlook for FY2026 without further deceleration, and the margin expectations for the remainder of the year following a flat Q1.

Answer

Peter Hadley (CFO) clarified that the PPC movement is a minor "tens of basis points," narrowing the guidance range to the lower end (flat). He attributed confidence to internal data and national employment reports, describing a "static situation" with low hiring and layoffs, expecting PPC to remain flat unless macro conditions change. Regarding margins, Q1 exceeded expectations despite Workforce Software acquisition costs, with the acquisition's drag now behind them. He anticipates similar net results in Q2, followed by a "little bit of a ramp" in the second half due to efficiencies and generative AI investments.

Jason Kupferberg asked about potential client hesitancy and sales cycle changes in the U.S. upmarket segment, and inquired about the competitive landscape in the down-market.

Answer

CEO Maria Black responded that U.S. results and enterprise pipelines are strong, though she noted a 'tiny bit of pipeline aging' on large multinational deals, but no significant sales cycle elongation. For the down-market, she stated it's always competitive but highlighted the strength of the Run platform, the Fiserv partnership, and high client satisfaction and retention as key differentiators.

Jason Kupferberg asked about new business bookings, seeking to understand how ADP is tracking against its annual guidance compared to last year and if visibility has improved. He also requested more specific details on the Q3 versus Q4 revenue and margin cadence.

Answer

CEO Maria Black indicated that sales pipelines are up year-over-year, providing good visibility and confidence heading into the seasonally important second half. CFO Don McGuire reiterated the back-half cadence, attributing a softer Q3 to FX headwinds, lower short-term interest rates impacting the client funds portfolio, and WorkForce Software integration costs, with a reacceleration expected in Q4.

Jason Kupferberg asked if the expected 10% Clover revenue growth for Q4 2025 serves as a proxy for next year's growth until the impact of deprioritized short-term initiatives is anniversaried. He also sought an updated assessment of Fiserv's competitive positioning across both Clover and non-Clover merchant businesses.

Answer

CEO Mike Lyons described Clover as an 'unbelievable asset' with significant opportunities in vertical, horizontal, and international expansion, client experience overhaul, and AI application. He also highlighted the strong ISV business and Commerce Hub for enterprise clients. CFO Paul Todd stated that Q4's 10% growth is a trough, with expectations for a 'low teens' range in 2026 and further acceleration to 'higher teens' in 2027 and beyond. Lyons clarified that Q4's 10% growth reflects pricing reversals, which would otherwise be in the high teens, and reiterated long-term expectations of 10%+ GPV growth and mid-to-high teens, closing 20% revenue growth.

Jason Kupferberg from Wells Fargo asked if Clover's projected 10% Q4 revenue growth is a proxy for next year, considering the deprioritization of short-term initiatives. He also requested an updated assessment of Fiserv's competitive positioning across both Clover and non-Clover merchant businesses.

Answer

CEO Mike Lyons highlighted Clover as an 'unbelievable asset' with significant opportunities in vertical/horizontal expansion and international growth, emphasizing an overhaul of the client experience and AI application. CFO Paul Todd indicated Q4 would be a trough for Clover's growth, with a pickup to low teens in 2026 and higher teens/20% long-term, excluding pricing reversals.

Jason Kupferberg asked for a reconciliation of the Merchant segment's Q1 organic growth to its full-year guidance, and questioned the expected revenue contribution from recent acquisitions in 2025.

Answer

CFO Robert Hau clarified that recent acquisitions will have a minimal revenue impact in 2025, with contributions expected in late 2025 and beyond. He stated that the anticipated acceleration in growth will come from organic drivers, including increased VAS penetration, significant international expansion for Clover, new product launches like Clover Hospitality, and growth in the Commerce Hub platform.

Jason Kupferberg asked for a breakdown of the factors driving the spread between Clover's revenue growth and payment volume growth, specifically the contributions from VAS, pricing, and hardware sales.

Answer

CFO Bob Hau identified continued growth in Value-Added Services (VAS) as a primary driver, noting the company expects to reach 25% VAS penetration in 2025. He also cited a 'very nice uptick' in hardware sales, driven by five new product rollouts, and a favorable business mix shift towards more direct clients as other key contributors to the spread.

Jason Kupferberg asked about expectations for Clover's revenue and payment volume growth in Q4, noting that the year-over-year comparisons become more difficult.

Answer

CFO Bob Hau reiterated the company's 2026 target of $4.5 billion in Clover revenue, which requires a ~28% compound growth rate, a level they are currently achieving. He noted that while volume growth has eased from last year's highs due to tougher comps and moderating consumer spending, it remains good. He also highlighted the sequential increase in value-added services (VAS) penetration to 21%.

Jason Kupferberg inquired about the timeline for material transaction volumes from agentic commerce across the industry and whether it will primarily substitute traditional e-commerce or expand the total addressable market (TAM) for payments.

Answer

CFO Chris Suh and CEO Ryan McInerney suggested agentic commerce could accelerate e-commerce adoption and potentially expand the TAM by enabling purchases from a wider range of merchants. They noted it's in early stages, evolving from discovery to integrated buy capabilities, with full autonomous agent purchases still on the horizon.

Jason Kupferberg followed up on agentic commerce, asking when the industry might expect to see material transaction volumes and whether agentic commerce is more likely to substitute traditional e-commerce or be additive to the overall payments industry.

Answer

Chris Suh, Visa's Chief Financial Officer, suggested that agentic commerce is likely to accelerate e-commerce adoption and could be additive by enabling consumers to buy from a larger, more diverse set of merchants, leading to more transactions on Visa. He noted that while it's still in early stages, the progression is from discovery to integrated buy capabilities, with the ultimate promise being autonomous agent purchases.

Jason Kupferberg from Bank of America questioned the sustainability of the 8% U.S. volume growth seen in April, asking if it should be normalized downwards to account for Easter timing and potential spending pull-forwards.

Answer

CFO Chris Suh acknowledged that the 8% growth in April did benefit from the timing of Easter. He cautioned against over-extrapolating from a few weeks of data and emphasized that the overall message is one of a stable, healthy, and resilient consumer spending environment, advising not to read too much into the 6% vs. 8% variance.

Jason Kupferberg asked for an update on Visa's tokenization strategy, specifically focusing on any potential for direct monetization beyond the inherent benefits of improved fraud prevention and security.

Answer

Ryan McInerney, Chief Executive Officer, described tokens as a top investment priority and a platform for innovation, noting over 12.5 billion tokens have been issued. For direct monetization, he provided two examples: a credential enrichment service for merchants to prevent lost sales from expired cards, and a 'heat map' service for issuers to help consumers manage their tokens. He stated the revenue from these services is already meaningful and expected to grow.

Jason Kupferberg asked about expectations for U.S. card-present volume growth in fiscal 2025 and requested quantification of the favorable one-time adjustment to new flows revenue in Q4.

Answer

CFO Chris Suh explained the one-time adjustment was a rebate reversal after a client missed a milestone, which helped boost new flows growth. He did not quantify the amount but reiterated the overall assumption that FY25 volume trends would remain stable with FY24.

Jason Kupferberg asked for a breakdown of the transaction margin dollar upside in the quarter, specifically quantifying the contribution from credit products versus other drivers. He also sought comments on the expected cadence of additional penetration for the new checkout experience beyond the current 25% global transaction coverage into next year.

Answer

CFO Jamie Miller stated that Q3 transaction margin dollar performance saw meaningful and diversified contributions from branded checkout, Venmo, PSPVAS, and credit. CEO Alex Chriss explained that the redesigned pay sheet experience covers roughly 25% of global transactions, with about half of those being optimized. He noted that when the pay sheet and biometrics are fully integrated, conversion rates increase by 2% to 5%. Alex Chriss acknowledged that scaling this across over half a trillion dollars of spend takes time but expressed confidence in the U.S. branded checkout growth and the ongoing rollout in Europe through 2026.

Jason Kupferberg (Wells Fargo Securities, LLC) asked for a breakdown of the sources of transaction margin dollar upside in the quarter, specifically the relative contribution from credit products versus other drivers. He also inquired about the expected cadence of penetration for the new checkout experience beyond its current 25% global coverage.

Answer

CFO Jamie Miller stated that Q3 transaction margin dollar performance saw meaningful and diversified contributions from branded checkout, Venmo, PSPVAS, and credit. CEO Alex Chriss noted that the new redesigned checkout experience is deployed across approximately 25% of global transactions, with about half optimized, and that combining the pay sheet with biometrics yields a 2-5% conversion increase. He added that U.S. branded checkout is growing faster year-to-date than in 2024, with European rollout expected through 2026, complemented by strong growth in Buy Now, Pay Later and Pay with Venmo.

Jason Kupferberg asked if the rollout of the new checkout experience could lead to an acceleration in online branded volume growth by year-end and requested a breakdown of Q1 branded growth between the U.S. and international markets.

Answer

CEO Alex Chriss highlighted three growth levers: the improved checkout, accelerating Pay with Venmo, and BNPL growth, expressing confidence in long-term targets. CFO and COO Jamie Miller added that the impact from the new checkout is ramping gradually. She noted U.S. performance was consistent with Q4, while international markets, particularly in Europe, continue to gain share and will see new product rollouts starting in Q2.

Jason Kupferberg requested clarification on the branded TPV performance, asking for the split between U.S. and international growth and the difference in their transaction margin profiles.

Answer

CFO Jamie Miller stated that international branded TPV saw a slight pullback of less than one point due to softness in Europe. She clarified that the TPV and transaction margin split between U.S. and international is roughly 50-50, with international margins being slightly healthier but generally in line with the U.S.

Jason Kupferberg asked about the outlook for branded TPV growth, questioning if the rollout of the new checkout experience could accelerate growth in 2025, and requested a timeline for its adoption beyond the current 5% of U.S. traffic.

Answer

CEO Alex Chriss confirmed expectations for consistent branded checkout trends and expressed confidence in the new checkout experiences, which have shown conversion lifts of 100-400 basis points. He noted that while PayPal can ramp up adoption on about a third of its volume, the remainder requires merchants to implement the changes. He expects continued momentum on the 5% adoption rate through the holiday season and into 2025 as merchants are now incentivized by the significant conversion improvements.

Jason Kupferberg asked for specifics on the vendor consolidation trend and the drivers behind the strong sequential growth in the financial services vertical.

Answer

CEO Arkadiy Dobkin explained that returning client work is distributed broadly across delivery centers in Europe and Asia. CFO Jason Peterson clarified that the Q1 sequential growth in financial services was partly due to the full-quarter impact of the NEORIS and FD acquisitions, alongside underlying organic improvement in banking and insurance.

Jason Kupferberg asked about the assumptions for discretionary spending improvement embedded in the 2025 revenue guidance and sought to identify which countries are the primary drivers of the wage inflation that is currently outpacing pricing power.

Answer

CEO Arkadiy Dobkin explained that the high end of the revenue guidance assumes a continued pragmatic return to discretionary 'change' programs, driven by clients seeing value in GenAI. CFO Jason Peterson and Dobkin clarified that wage pressure is most pronounced in 'off-site' delivery locations, driven by the strategic need to retain top technical talent with skills in new GenAI-enabled software development life cycles, which is crucial for future demand.

Jason Kupferberg of Bank of America Merrill Lynch asked if there was any reason to believe the company would not return to 'meaningfully positive' organic revenue growth in 2025. He also requested clarification on the organic growth profile and client concentration of the newly acquired Nedis.

Answer

CFO Jason Peterson stated that EPAM definitely expects to return to organic revenue growth in 2025, though the definition of 'meaningful' is debatable. Regarding Nedis, he noted it is a growing business and that its major customer, CEMEX, is significant but not a majority of its business. He declined to give a specific pre-acquisition growth rate for Nedis but expressed excitement about the combined growth opportunities.

Jason Kupferberg asked how the headwind from deconversion revenues and the tailwind from delayed projects might net out for fiscal 2026 revenue growth, and whether the nearly 10% growth in 'key revenue' is sustainable.

Answer

CFO Mimi Carsley responded that it is too early to provide a full fiscal 2026 outlook but noted the sales pipeline remains robust. She confirmed that the growth in key revenue, driven by digital, cloud, and new products, reflects a sustainable long-term trend for the business, though it is partly offset by headwinds from the non-key business segment.

Jason Kupferberg from Bank of America asked for an update on the full-year free cash flow conversion target and the current penetration of private cloud among core clients.

Answer

CFO Mimi Carsley expressed confidence in hitting the full-year free cash flow conversion guidance range of 65% to 75%. President and CEO Greg Adelson stated that 75% of core clients are now on the private cloud, with the company on pace to meet its annual migration targets of 40-45 clients per year. He noted some clients may hold out to move directly to the public cloud offering, which is on track for a 2026 launch.

Jason Kupferberg requested more detail on the drivers for the expected second-half revenue growth acceleration to ~9%. He also asked for an update on management's confidence in achieving the full-year target of 50-55 core wins.

Answer

CFO Mimi Carsley detailed several factors driving second-half confidence: easier hardware comps, continued strong cloud growth, accelerating faster payments revenue, a pickup in card volumes, and the ramp-up of new products like Financial Crimes Defender. CEO Greg Adelson affirmed confidence in the 50-55 core win target for the fiscal year, stating the sales pipeline is at an all-time high even after a record Q4 and Q1.

A representative for Jason Kupferberg of Bank of America asked for the revenue split between U.S. and international markets and to identify the largest international market by revenue.

Answer

Taylor Lauber, President and incoming CEO, did not provide a specific revenue split but highlighted the long-term strategic importance of international growth. He described a two-pronged approach: enabling large enterprise clients globally across 50+ countries and bundling software and payments for SMBs in key markets like the U.K., Ireland, and Germany.

Jason Kupferberg requested a deeper dive into Europe's strong performance, asking which corridors were driving growth and whether the 5-point spread between transaction and revenue growth might narrow. He also sought to confirm if the Euro Change acquisition was included in the initial 2025 guidance.

Answer

CEO Devin McGranahan identified key growth corridors as Europe to South America, Africa, and the Middle East. He attributed the wide transaction-revenue spread to the higher mix of account payout (APN) transactions in Europe's retail business, which drives volume but at a different yield. He affirmed the company is comfortable with this dynamic due to higher customer retention. CFO Matt Cagwin confirmed that the initial guidance did contemplate tuck-in acquisitions, including Euro Change.

Jason Kupferberg from Bank of America asked about the potential drivers for further improvement in retail transaction growth and how the impact of post-election migration patterns on the U.S.-Mexico corridor is factored into the 2025 guidance.

Answer

CEO Devin McGranahan stated that further retail improvement will stem from existing strategies, including network optimization, independent agent growth, and the rollout of the new point-of-sale system, with North America representing the largest opportunity. CFO Matt Hagan noted that the 2025 guidance range of 0% to 2% adjusted revenue growth provides flexibility for uncertainties like migration shifts. He specified that North America constitutes about 30% of revenue, with the U.S. to LACA corridor representing a low-to-mid 20s portion of that.

Jason Kupferberg asked about the persistence of headwinds in Latin America, the potential impact of the U.S. election on the business, and the widening spread between branded digital transaction and revenue growth.

Answer

CFO Matt Cagwin acknowledged the Latin America situation is fluid but stated the company feels confident in its Q4 guidance. CEO Devin McGranahan added that he does not expect a dramatic near-term impact from the U.S. election, as most clients are already established. Regarding the digital spread, Cagwin noted he is pleased with the wide spread as it signals transaction acceleration, particularly in sticky payout-to-account services. McGranahan reiterated the long-term 200-300 bps spread target but is willing to maintain a wider gap to drive growth.

Jason Kupferberg asked what top priorities management is focusing on for improvement, given the strong performance across the business, and inquired about any observed changes in consumer behavior with the Affirm Card.

Answer

CEO Max Levchin identified personalization as a key focus, aiming to improve conversion and uptake by tailoring purchasing power and offers to individual consumers. He also highlighted international expansion and new product development with GenAI as priorities. Regarding the Affirm Card, he said there have been no major behavioral shifts, but the company is actively working to expand its utility into new categories like groceries and medicine to increase usage and reach its long-term spend-per-user goals.

Jason Kupferberg asked about Affirm's approach to its fiscal 2025 guidance, including assumptions for the credit environment and the definition of 'material' for new initiatives like the Apple Pay partnership.

Answer

CEO Max Levchin explained that credit outcomes are by design and that the company's guidance represents a conservative 'floor' that the team is tasked to outperform. CFO Michael Linford clarified that for an initiative to be 'material,' it would need to be in the hundreds of millions to billion-dollar range, and since new wallet partnerships are not yet live, any contribution would be upside to the current outlook.

Jason Kupferberg questioned the 2025 organic growth guidance of 1% to 3.5%, noting the lack of acceleration despite strong bookings and asking if this was conservatism. He also asked about client interest in agentic AI and the potential impact of DeepSeek.

Answer

CEO Ravi Kumar S explained that the guidance reflects strong visibility for the first half of the year, with hopes to reach the upper end as H2 visibility improves, noting the company's track record of hitting the high end of its guidance range. Regarding AI, he described a three-vector opportunity: improving software development efficiency, driving innovation through data modernization, and unlocking new service pools in business operations. He views DeepSeek as a positive inflection point that shifts value from back-end models to front-end services, benefiting Cognizant.

Jason Kupferberg asked about Cognizant's Q4 organic growth outlook serving as a potential floor for 2025 and inquired about the productivity improvements from AI-enabled coding and how the company avoids revenue cannibalization.

Answer

CEO Ravi Kumar S confirmed the Q4 organic growth of 1-2% provides a good velocity entering 2025. He explained that AI productivity gains are shared with clients, which enhances competitiveness, helps win vendor consolidation deals, and encourages clients to increase their project backlogs. He emphasized that the elasticity of tech spend means lower deployment costs lead to more work, not reduced budgets.

Speaking for Jason Kupferberg, Tyler DuPont asked for a breakdown of Q3 bookings between large and smaller deals, the implications for revenue ramp timelines, and the sustainability of margins by segment.

Answer

CFO Rob Del Bene acknowledged a significant renewal of approximately $400 million but noted the book-to-bill was still strong at around 1.2x without it. He described a healthy mix of project-based and longer-term outsourcing deals whose revenue impact will materialize in fiscal 2026. Regarding margins, he reiterated that Q4 revenue declines and merit pay increases would impact both segments.

Jason Kupferberg asked for confirmation of the 2-3% M&A contribution to 2025 growth and inquired about the factors influencing operating margins for next year.

Answer

CFO Juan Urthiague confirmed the 2025 outlook of low-to-mid double-digit growth, comprising a slight acceleration in organic growth plus 2-3 points from M&A. Regarding margins, he explained that after facing pressure from LatAm currency appreciation, the company is now seeing a tailwind from recent depreciation and internal efficiencies, establishing the Q3 margin of 15.6% as a solid base for 2025.