Jason Napier

Jason Napier questioned the competitive landscape in US investment banking, specifically regarding peers' potential capital deployment and its impact on Barclays' Prime business. He also sought insights into risks within the non-bank financial intermediary (NBFI) space, including exposure maturity, vintages, and lessons learned from recent fraud cases like Tricolor and First Brands.

Answer

CS Venkatakrishnan, Group Chief Executive, Barclays, addressed the capital regulation disparity, stating that Barclays' Prime business has strong market share and the wherewithal to compete effectively, viewing it as a balance sheet as much as a capital business. On NBFI and private credit, Mr. Venkatakrishnan emphasized a consistent approach to credit risk management, focusing on client selection, concentrations, terms, and continuous monitoring. He expressed disappointment over Tricolor (fraud) and highlighted that Barclays declined First Brands due to insufficient data, reinforcing the importance of strong financial controls and vigilance against economic conditions that could stress credit performance.

Jason Napier from UBS asked about competitive conditions in U.S. investment banking, particularly in Prime, given peers' potential for significant capital deployment. He also sought insights into risks within the non-bank financial intermediary (NBFI) space, inquiring about exposure maturity, potential for higher loss run rates, and the bank's risk management approach following recent fraud cases.

Answer

CS Venkatakrishnan, Group Chief Executive, Barclays, stated confidence in competing effectively in Prime due to strong market share, client penetration, and product capability, despite potential regulatory changes. Regarding NBFI, Mr. Venkatakrishnan emphasized treating all credit equally, focusing on client selection, sector/name concentrations, and continuous monitoring. He acknowledged disappointment with the Tricolor fraud case, highlighting lessons learned and increased vigilance on financial controls and economic conditions' impact on companies. Anna Cross, Group Finance Director, Barclays, did not directly answer this question.

Jason Napier questioned the retained 2026 targets, noting that while the bank is outperforming, consensus for the Investment Bank remains below Barclays' own expectations. He also asked if the post-2026 consensus growth estimates of 3% revenue and 2% costs are reasonable given Barclays' business footprint.

Answer

Group Finance Director Anna Cross reiterated confidence in the 2025 and 2026 targets, stating the current momentum is a direct result of the strategy to drive stable income growth with cost and capital discipline. Group Chief Executive C.S. Venkatakrishnan added that a large bank like Barclays should grow its top line at roughly the nominal GDP growth rate of its key markets (U.S. and UK), suggesting this is a reasonable long-term assumption.

Sought a rough sense of the size of the flagged Q4 restructuring charge due to investor uncertainty about payouts, and asked for clarification on whether the upcoming update on capital allocation priorities implies a potential change in the group's business mix.

Answer

The size of the restructuring charge cannot be specified yet but it will be material and higher than the typical annual amount of £200-300 million. The investor update in February will clarify target returns, capital allocation priorities considering how the market values different businesses, and will set a target for shareholder distributions, which is currently not in place.

Jason Napier from UBS Group asked about the philosophy behind NatWest's cost management, questioning why the continued outperformance is being reinvested for simplification rather than allowing the savings to improve near-term profitability.

Answer

CEO Paul Thwaite defended the strategy, emphasizing that disciplined management of day-to-day costs creates the capacity to invest in long-term value creation, such as digitizing customer journeys and simplifying technology. He pointed to the significant year-on-year reduction in the cost/income ratio to 49% and strong operating jaws as proof that the bank is delivering both efficiency and a better bank for the future.

Jason Napier from UBS Group inquired about operating lease depreciation (OLD), asking for the underlying 'clean' number for Q2 and the outlook for the rest of the year. He also asked about technology costs, seeking to understand the drivers behind the reported 20% reduction in run/change costs and the cost evolution into 2026.

Answer

Executive Director & CFO William Chalmers explained the stable Q2 OLD was due to management actions offsetting EV price weakness and fleet growth, and he expects the line to be more stable going forward. Group Chief Executive Charlie Nunn detailed that tech cost reductions came from productivity and insourcing, which funded reinvestment in cloud and AI. He reiterated the overall cost base would flatten into 2026 to achieve the sub-50% cost-to-income target.

Jason Napier inquired about the strong mortgage growth in Q3, asking about market share dynamics and front-end pricing. He also asked for commentary on the credit quality and consumer demand driving the strong performance in the U.K. Retail loan book.

Answer

Executive William Leon Chalmers reported a Q3 mortgage market share of around 21.5% with completion margins just over 70 bps, attributing the success to strategic investments in the intermediary journey and product proposition. He described the credit quality in the broader retail book as "more benign than probably surpassing our expectations," citing a healthy macro environment and tools like "your credit score" for driving strong, high-quality growth in personal loans and cards.

Jason Napier asked for the motivation behind HSBC's suggestion to U.K. regulators to end ring-fencing and its potential financial impact. He also questioned why cost guidance was held constant for the year despite a strong Q1, implying potential for future efficiency slippage.

Answer

Georges Elhedery, an executive, argued that enhanced regulations have made ring-fencing redundant and its removal would lower costs, improve capital efficiency, and support U.K. growth. Manveen Kaur, an executive, explained that the full-year cost guidance accounts for inflation, investment spend, and the phased-in benefit of simplification savings throughout the year, which explains the stable guidance despite a strong Q1.

Jason Napier questioned the impact of a 'higher for longer' interest rate environment on asset mix and credit demand in Hong Kong, asking why banking NII guidance wasn't upgraded. He also sought to understand the sustainability of the strong Q1 wealth management performance.

Answer

Georges Elhedery, Group CFO, acknowledged the rate environment as a tailwind but stated it was too early in the year to update the NII guidance. On wealth, he attributed the strong results to strategic investments but cautioned against annualizing the number due to a weaker comparison period in Q1 2023, though he expects continued growth.

Asked for details on the treasury losses from hedge repositioning, including the strategy and payback period, and requested an update on the valuation and potential impairment of their BoCom stake.

Answer

The treasury losses are from reinvesting into higher-yielding assets to protect against future rate drops, with the loss recovered via NII over ~5 years. The BoCom stake currently has a $0.4B headroom over its carrying value, and any potential future impairment would have a negligible impact on the CET1 ratio due to offsetting regulatory capital deductions.