Jed Kelly

Jed Kelly inquired if Flutter Entertainment plans to acquire its own DCM license for prediction markets to control its destiny, and asked for an update on the joint venture with CME.

Answer

CEO Peter Jackson expressed satisfaction with the current prediction market product and the CME partnership, highlighting ongoing product changes, plans for market-making services, and significant investment in the space.

Jed Kelly inquired whether Flutter intends to acquire its own DCM license for prediction markets to control its destiny, and asked for an update on the progress of its joint venture with CME.

Answer

CEO Peter Jackson stated that the company has extensively evaluated its approach to prediction markets and is pleased with its current product in 18 unregulated states. He confirmed satisfaction with the CME partnership, highlighting a strong pipeline of product improvements and ongoing exploration of market-making services, with significant investment planned for the space.

Josh on behalf of Jed Kelly from Oppenheimer asked for commentary on early July trading trends. He also inquired about the progress of the 'Your Way' parlay feature and its performance during the NBA playoffs ahead of the NFL season.

Answer

CEO Peter Jackson declined to comment on current trading. Regarding the 'Your Way' feature, he described it as a foundational and revolutionary technology for the sportsbook, noting strong customer engagement with its Same Game Parlay capabilities during the NBA playoffs and highlighting exciting plans for the upcoming NFL season.

Jed Kelly asked how Flutter can proactively use its international experience to prevent a contagion of tax increases across U.S. states.

Answer

CEO Peter Jackson explained that the company actively educates state bodies, using its global experience to show that excessive tax rate hikes can sometimes lead to a decline in total tax revenue. He referenced the 'Laffer curve' principle, emphasizing their goal is to help states find an optimal tax rate that benefits both the state and its customers.

Jed Kelly asked how Flutter can be proactive in preventing state tax contagion following the Illinois hike, given its experience in other jurisdictions.

Answer

CEO Peter Jackson stated that Flutter's strategy is to educate state bodies, using examples from its global operations where excessive tax rate hikes have led to a decline in the state's tax revenue. He referenced the Laffer curve, emphasizing that the company works to help states find an optimal taxation point that benefits both the state and its customers.

Jed Kelly from Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. asked for an update on NerdWallet's vertical integration strategy, focusing on how it creates stickier consumer relationships, and later questioned how NerdWallet, as an aggregator, is positioned to leverage emerging LLMs, considering potential direct relationships between LLMs and financial service partners, and inquired about data sharing.

Answer

CEO Tim Chen expressed satisfaction with the vertical integration strategy, highlighting its role in transitioning from transactional to deeper consumer relationships with improved unit economics, positioning NerdWallet as a preferred acquirer. Regarding LLMs, Tim Chen emphasized two key obstacles for agentic solutions: regulatory requirements (licensing for credit, insurance, mortgages, investing) and the necessity of financial institution buy-in, asserting NerdWallet's strong position due to its existing compliance infrastructure and partner relationships.

Jed Kelly from Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. asked for an update on NerdWallet's vertical integration strategy, inquiring how it fosters stickier consumer relationships given the company's strong brand and distribution. He also questioned NerdWallet's positioning against large LLMs potentially forming direct relationships with financial institutions and the company's stance on data sharing with these emerging LLMs.

Answer

Co-founder and CEO Tim Chen expressed satisfaction with the vertical integration strategy, highlighting its role in transitioning from transactional to deeper consumer relationships with improved unit economics. Regarding LLMs, Mr. Chen identified regulatory requirements (licensing) and the necessity of financial institution buy-in as key obstacles for agentic solutions, asserting NerdWallet's strong position due to its existing compliance infrastructure and partner relationships.

Jed Kelly inquired about potential future vertical integration in Insurance or financial advisory, technology investments to gain market share, and the return on investment from the recent brand marketing campaigns.

Answer

Co-Founder and CEO Tim Chen confirmed that Insurance and financial advisory are potential areas for future vertical integration due to their complexity. He noted technology investments are focused on user experience, routing, and expanding carrier options. Regarding brand spend, Chen stated that while specific ROI is competitive information, the company is quantitative in its approach and has seen underlying brand health metrics improve despite lower spending in 2024.

An analyst, on behalf of Jed Kelly, asked about future opportunities for vertical integration beyond mortgages and about any observed efficiencies from the recent brand spend in sports.

Answer

CEO Tim Chen indicated that any category with sticky customer relationships where trusted financial guidance is needed is a prime candidate for vertical integration. Regarding brand spend, he stated that NerdWallet is very quantitative in its approach, constantly striving to improve its creative and media placement, which includes the increased focus on sports.

Jed Kelly asked how performance marketing benefits from increased volume to insurance carriers and questioned the strategy of acquiring a mortgage brokerage versus partnering with lenders.

Answer

CFO Lauren St. Waugh reiterated the disciplined, in-quarter profitable approach to performance marketing. CEO Tim Chen added that for insurance, better personalization and high-quality referrals create a positive feedback loop with carriers. Regarding the mortgage strategy, Chen explained that acquiring a brokerage like Next Door Lending provides consumers with broad choice and competitive rates by shopping across many wholesale lenders, which he described as a great option for consumers.

Jed Kelly asked about potential risks that could cause Super Group's 2026 guidance to come in below expectations, and also inquired about any regions outside of Africa that might open up for regulation in the near future.

Answer

CFO Alinda van Wyk explained that guidance risks include sports result variance, though January's exceptional performance has normalized, and potential sudden regulatory shifts like taxes. CEO Neal Menashe confirmed that a normalized sports margin is embedded in the guidance. Regarding new regions, Neal Menashe mentioned potential regulation in UAE, in addition to Brazil which regulated previously, emphasizing that market entry depends on taxes, product offerings, and overall viability.

Jed Kelly asked about potential risks that could cause the 2026 guidance to come in under expectations, such as sports outcomes or regulatory shifts. He also inquired about any regions outside of Africa that Super Group is watching for potential market openings.

Answer

CFO Alinda van Wyk noted that guidance risks include variance, though sports results are expected to normalize after an exceptional January 2026, and the ongoing risk of sudden regulatory shifts or taxes. CEO Neal Menashe confirmed that a normalized sports margin is embedded in the guidance. Neal Menashe also mentioned Brazil as a past opening and current discussions around UAE, emphasizing that market entry depends on taxes, product offerings (sports/casino), and regulatory frameworks, with most European countries already regulated and some African countries gradually regulating.

Jed Kelly from Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. asked for a progress update on the recent platform and iGaming upgrades in South Africa and other countries. He also inquired about the company's plans for deploying its significant cash balance, asking about dividends versus M&A.

Answer

CFO Alinda Van Wyk described the Africa upgrade as a move to a new software version that enables faster rollouts of new features. CEO Neal Menashe added that the Jackpot City casino product is also being launched across the continent. Regarding capital allocation, Van Wyk reiterated a consistent strategy of investing in high-return opportunities and returning capital to shareholders via dividends, while maintaining flexibility for M&A.

Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. inquired about the drivers behind the strong ex-U.S. sports handle growth and Super Group's competitive strategy in the U.S. iGaming market against established land-based brands. He also asked about the company's approach to the potential Alberta market launch, based on lessons from Ontario.

Answer

CEO Neal Menashe attributed the sports growth to significant product development and effective marketing, which increases customer engagement. Regarding the U.S., he emphasized the focus on pure-play casino brands like Jackpot City and Spin Palace, noting they compete with land-based operators globally and are enhancing product offerings. He stated the U.S. business is getting closer to breakeven. For Alberta, Menashe mentioned they learned from the Ontario migration and will not repeat past mistakes, with product development already underway for a potential late 2026 launch.

Jed Kelly from Oppenheimer asked about the regulatory outlook, including whether potential legalization in Alberta is in the guidance and what other regions pose risks. He also inquired about M&A strategy, normalized Q4 sportsbook results, and how a potential New Jersey tax hike would impact the U.S. strategy.

Answer

Executive Neal Menashe stated that Alberta is not factored into 2025 guidance, but rather for H1 2026, and that minor tax changes in the U.K. and New Zealand are already included. Executive Richard Hasson addressed M&A, indicating a focus on tuck-in opportunities. Menashe clarified that Q4's strong results were due to normal sports margins combined with strong casino performance, not extraordinary sports hold. Regarding a potential NJ tax hike, Hasson said the decision to stay would depend on maintaining a path to profitability.

Jed Kelly inquired about global sports betting results trending into Q4, Super Group's strategic view on Latin America, and the company's capital returns policy, specifically weighing a further dividend against strategic M&A.

Answer

Executive Neal Menashe noted that October sports results were strong, but emphasized that the casino business, now 83% of revenue, provides a counterbalance. Executive Richard Hasson stated that the company is not currently proceeding with Brazil, focusing instead on optimizing its existing footprint. Regarding capital returns, CFO Alinda Van Wyk confirmed they are considering a special dividend in Q4, while also investing in technology and marketing. Richard Hasson added that while they are constantly evaluating M&A, there is nothing firm to report.

Jed Kelly questioned whether aggregators like EverQuote would benefit from new LLMs, considering carriers' historical reluctance to display quotes on third-party sites. He also asked if increased profitability from carriers implementing AI would lead them to invest more in traffic-driving channels.

Answer

Jayme Mendal, EverQuote's Chief Executive Officer, affirmed that carriers' protective stance on rates creates an opportunity for EverQuote, which has unique access to distribution and can organize this complexity for LLMs, leveraging its 15 years of data and technology expertise. He confirmed that carriers implementing AI will likely become more profitable, improving combined ratios and increasing their capacity for marketing spend. He highlighted EverQuote's own successful AI deployments in traffic bidding, Smart Campaigns, engineering, and call center operations, positioning the company as a trusted partner to help carriers leverage AI faster and more effectively, potentially benefiting from increased marketing investment.

Jed Kelly questioned how LLMs will interact with carriers' historical reluctance to share quotes on third-party sites, suggesting aggregators like EverQuote could benefit, and whether increased carrier profitability from AI implementation would lead to greater marketing spend.

Answer

CEO Jayme Mendal affirmed that carriers' protection of rates creates an opportunity for EverQuote, which has unique access to distribution and proprietary data to streamline AI-native experiences. He believes AI will lead to material cost savings for carriers, improving combined ratios and increasing their capacity for marketing spend. EverQuote, as a trusted partner, aims to benefit from this increased marketing and potentially assist carriers with their AI strategies.

Jed Kelly asked about the discretion behind EverQuote's investments in newer traffic channels, questioning if it's a response to competitors, and how to view operating expenses (OpEx) and longer-term goals as a percentage of Variable Marketing Margin (VMM).

Answer

Jayme Mendal (CEO, EverQuote) clarified that investments are discretionary and align with their long-term strategy, not a competitive response. Joseph Sanborn (CFO, EverQuote) reiterated that EBITDA margins are viewed traditionally against revenues, targeting 100-150 basis points annual improvement, with OpEx reflecting strategic technology and AI investments for long-term differentiation and growth.

Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. inquired about the long-term outlook for Variable Marketing Margin (VMM) and questioned how the company views using its cash balance for M&A to gain leverage or reduce traffic costs.

Answer

CFO Joseph Sanborn stated that the company expects VMM to average in the high 20s, as this level aligns with maximizing total Variable Marketing Dollars (VMD). Regarding M&A, Sanborn clarified the focus is on partnering with carriers to help them grow, not on gaining leverage, as their customers' success drives EverQuote's success.

Jed Kelly asked for an outlook on operating expenses for the remainder of the year and sought clarification on whether guided EBITDA margins are calculated as a percentage of revenue or VMM.

Answer

Executive Joseph Sanborn indicated that Q2 cash operating expenses would be modestly higher than Q1's ~$25 million. He confirmed plans for incremental investments in technology, data, and AI in the second half of the year, which will increase OpEx but are aimed at long-term returns. He clarified that the company will manage these investments to maintain adjusted EBITDA margins, as a percentage of revenue, at or near current levels. He also reiterated that VMM is expected to remain in the high 20s.

Jed Kelly sought clarification on the implied growth rate for the second half of 2025 and asked about the company's strategy to make the business less volatile as the industry normalizes.

Answer

CFO Joseph Sanborn avoided specific full-year guidance but confirmed growth would normalize after Q1, noting tougher comps in the back half. CEO Jayme Mendal outlined a strategy to reduce volatility by deepening their P&C focus, expanding into non-auto verticals, and offering a broader suite of products to become an indispensable partner.

Jed Kelly asked for guidance on EBITDA as a percentage of VMM, especially with expected lower rent expenses. He also questioned the implied sequential revenue decline in Q4 guidance, contrasting it with historical up-cycle performance.

Answer

CFO Joseph Sanborn addressed seasonality, noting that after excluding the divested health business, the core auto business historically sees a sequential Q4 decline due to holidays and carrier pullback. The Q4 guidance also factors in preparations for the FCC transition. Regarding margins, he reiterated that the company has seen significant margin expansion and the Q4 guidance implies a return to Q2's strong levels (around 11%), which they see as a sustainable base for future disciplined investment and growth.

Jed Kelly asked for an update on Sabre's Free Cash Flow guidance and discussions with debt holders, given the flat Free Cash Flow. He also inquired about the strength in corporate travel, whether it's a comp issue, and if the strength is coming from traditional agencies or new self-service players. Additionally, he asked how the evolution of direct connections with AI differs from past search trends and for more color on the Mindtrip and PayPal partnership.

Answer

Mike Randolfi, CFO, referenced the recently completed $1.8 billion refinancing at 11.8% interest, stating the current FCF profile is consistent. He reiterated the focus on generating positive FCF, expected in 2027, and a strong cash balance. Kurt Ekert, President and CEO, clarified that the FCF projection includes a $60 million restructuring impact and a $130 million year-on-year difference from the PIK moving to cash. Kurt noted positive signs in corporate travel and TMC traffic in early 2026, seeing broad strength from both traditional and new entrants. He differentiated agentic AI from metasearch, explaining that agentic players seek an integrated end-to-end experience (including servicing), which Sabre is well-positioned to enable. He views agentic AI as an offensive opportunity with minimal downside risk for Sabre. Garry Wiseman, President of Product and Engineering, elaborated on the Mindtrip and PayPal partnership, describing it as an end-to-end consumer experience for discovery, planning, booking, and servicing, with Mindtrip handling the front-end, Sabre providing content and booking, and PayPal facilitating payments, including installments.

Jed Kelly asked for an update on Sabre's free cash flow guidance and discussions with debt holders, the performance of corporate travel, how agentic AI differs from metasearch and direct connections, and additional details on the Mindtrip and PayPal partnership.

Answer

Mike Randolfi, CFO, reiterated that the free cash flow profile is consistent with the recent $1.8 billion refinancing, and Sabre expects positive free cash flow in 2027, noting the 2026 projection includes $60 million for restructuring and a $130 million shift from PIK to cash interest. Kurt Ekert, President and CEO, observed positive signs in corporate travel from both traditional and new entrants. Mr. Ekert explained that agentic AI aims for an integrated end-to-end experience, unlike metasearch, positioning Sabre offensively. Garry Wiseman, President of Product and Engineering, detailed the Mindtrip and PayPal partnership, highlighting Mindtrip's agentic discovery and planning, Sabre's booking and servicing, and PayPal's flexible payment options, creating a comprehensive consumer experience.

Jed Kelly asked if technology shifts like NDC or direct bookings were causing GDS industry declines, beyond macro factors. He also inquired about opportunities with new travel agencies and potential cost efficiencies from AI over the next 18 months.

Answer

President & CEO Kurt Ekert attributed GDS weakness to a cyclical downturn in corporate and government travel, which heavily use the GDS, rather than structural technology shifts. EVP & CFO Mike Randolfi addressed costs, highlighting ~$400M in past run-rate expense reductions and ongoing discipline, expecting technology and SG&A costs to be down for the year, allowing future profit to improve margins.

Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. asked for more details on the current macroeconomic softness, how the sale of Hospitality Solutions will accelerate refinancing conversations, and whether airlines might leverage lower fuel costs to drive volume through third-party channels.

Answer

CEO Kurt Ekert acknowledged the macro environment, updating the full-year GDS industry growth forecast to be down 1-2%, but reiterated Sabre's double-digit distribution bookings growth guidance due to its transaction-based model. CFO Michael Randolfi described the asset sale as a 'significant credit enhancing event' that improves the company's credit profile, enabling more efficient future refinancing. Randolfi also noted that airlines price to fill capacity, so lower fuel costs could lead to lower fares, which ultimately drives bookings for Sabre.

Jed Kelly questioned the impact of new capital flowing into modern, NDC-focused travel agencies and asked about the corporate versus leisure travel assumptions in the full-year outlook.

Answer

CEO Kurt Ekert viewed the new capital as a positive sign for the sector and noted Sabre's strong position to serve these new entrants with its multi-source platform. CFO Michael Randolfi stated the baseline assumption is for flat to nominal industry growth, though the backdrop for corporate and international travel remains constructive. He emphasized the focus is on executing their significant new business wins.

Jed Kelly questioned if the expected momentum in Air Distribution into 2025 implies a reacceleration in the segment and asked for an update on the overall travel environment. As a follow-up, he asked if new high-volume wins could potentially pressure gross margins in the Distribution segment.

Answer

CFO Michael Randolfi confirmed they are 'very, very confident' in a meaningful acceleration in Air Distribution bookings in 2025 as recent large commercial wins are implemented. CEO Kurt Ekert added that the travel demand environment remains strong across geographies. Regarding margins, Randolfi stated that while new wins are not yet in the results, he expects the long-term cost of revenue to remain around 40%, suggesting stable gross margin profiles despite potential quarterly lumpiness.

Jed Kelly questioned why Airbnb is not leaning into more brand hotels, given their potential to expand supply and attract new users to the platform.

Answer

Brian Chesky, Co-founder and CEO of Airbnb, explained that the current focus is on boutiques and independent hotels, which represent a large segment of the market and are enthusiastic about listing on Airbnb due to low commissions and traveler types. He noted that this is their starting point and did not rule out future expansion to other brand hotels.

Jed Kelly asked why Airbnb is not leaning into more brand hotels to expand supply and acquire new users, given the potential benefits.

Answer

Brian Chesky, Co-founder and CEO of Airbnb, explained that the current focus is on boutiques and independent hotels, which represent a large segment of the market and align well with the Airbnb brand ethos. He noted that these hoteliers are enthusiastic about listing on Airbnb due to lower commissions and traveler types, and while not ruling out future expansion, this is the starting point.

Jed Kelly asked about Airbnb's strategy for integrating hotels, particularly in markets with regulatory constraints, and how this might contribute to the re-acceleration of the U.S. business.

Answer

Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky explained that hotels are a promising opportunity, leveraging existing traffic and supplementing supply in constrained markets like New York City and Madrid. He emphasized hotels fill specific use cases (e.g., one-night stays) without significant cannibalization and are efficient to scale.

Jed Kelly asked about Airbnb's strategy for integrating hotels, particularly in markets with regulatory constraints on traditional Airbnb listings.

Answer

Brian Chesky, CEO of Airbnb, sees hotels as a promising opportunity, leveraging Airbnb's existing traffic. He explained that pilots in Los Angeles, New York City, and Madrid (constrained markets) show strong interest from boutique and independent hotels. The strategy focuses on supplementing supply for specific use cases like one-night urban stays or business travel, without significant cannibalization of home bookings.

Jed Kelly asked about the company's strategy regarding M&A as a tool to reaccelerate revenue and nights booked growth, versus its historical focus on building organically.

Answer

CEO Brian Chesky confirmed that Airbnb is more open to acquisitions now than in the past, having rebuilt its tech platform and expanded its strategy. While historically focused on organic growth, he cited the successful acquisition of Hotel Tonight as a precedent and stated the company is opportunistic, provided any deal's integration costs don't outweigh the benefits.

Jed Kelly asked if Airbnb is considering leaning more into hotels in urban U.S. markets and questioned the decision to reiterate, rather than widen, the full-year margin guidance given macroeconomic uncertainty.

Answer

CEO Brian Chesky confirmed that hotels are a 'massive opportunity' and part of the strategy to expand beyond the core, citing the recent HotelTonight promotion as an example. CFO Ellie Mertz stated that the reiterated margin guidance provides considerable room to invest in growth initiatives and that there has been no material change to the investment profile for the year.

Jed Kelly inquired about Airbnb's strategy for partnering with larger companies to provide enhanced services and asked for an outlook on the North American market opportunity, noting its recent room night acceleration.

Answer

CEO Brian Chesky stated that while Airbnb has historically not focused on partnerships, the next chapter involves creating a more open ecosystem, suggesting third-party integrations are a compelling future opportunity. CFO Ellie Mertz addressed North America, asserting there is significant room to grow by gaining share from hotels and increasing penetration in demographics like the Latino population and non-coastal states.

Jed Kelly asked about Airbnb's strategy in markets with increasing regulations, such as New York City, and whether the company would lean more into hotels in those areas. He also asked about the marketing mix for growth in non-core markets.

Answer

CEO Brian Chesky contrasted New York City's 'ban' with Paris's successful partnership for the Olympics, positioning Paris as the model for collaboration with cities. He called the NYC outcome a 'cautionary tale' where rents and hotel prices rose after the ban. He confirmed that Airbnb is actively adding more hotels to its platform, not just in NYC but globally, and remains optimistic about finding a workable solution in New York in the future.

Jed Kelly asked CEO Ariane Gorin for her vision on the medium-term margin trajectory of Expedia's business, acknowledging its consistent margin growth.

Answer

CEO Ariane Gorin stated that there is more margin expansion to come, driven by effective execution, marketing efficiency, and leveraging scale. She expressed confidence in growth from B2C, B2B (new partners, new lines of business like Tiqets acquisition), increased supply (10% lodging property growth in Q4 2025), and the advertising business, especially with AI. CFO Scott Schenkel added that while Q1 2026 shows strong margin expansion, the rest of 2026 will see a more muted pace due to lapping prior cost actions. He emphasized a culture of operating smarter and reinvesting savings for growth. Gorin reiterated the focus on 'brilliant at the basics' and 'making every dollar count.'

Jed Kelly with Oppenheimer & Co. inquired about Expedia's medium-term margin trajectory, acknowledging the company's consistent margin growth.

Answer

CEO Ariane Gorin indicated confidence in continued margin expansion, citing potential from B2C, B2B growth, new lines of business, increased supply, and the advertising business, further bolstered by AI. CFO Scott Schenkel noted a strong Q1 2026 outlook with 3-4 points of margin expansion, attributing it to prior cost actions. He emphasized a company culture of operating smarter and more efficiently, with a focus on reinvesting savings for growth while also dropping some to the bottom line.

Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer asked for an update on the competitive landscape within Expedia Group's B2B segment, specifically regarding contracts and the renewal cycle.

Answer

CEO Ariane Gorin acknowledged the constant competitive environment in B2B, emphasizing the team's focus on delivering value to partners and continuous innovation. She expressed long-term confidence in Expedia Group's B2B value proposition despite the dynamic nature of contract wins and losses.

Jed Kelly requested an update on the competitive landscape within Expedia Group's B2B segment, including insights into contracts and the renewal cycle.

Answer

CEO Ariane Gorin, drawing on over a decade of experience in the B2B business, acknowledged constant competition but expressed confidence in Expedia Group's value proposition. She emphasized the team's focus on delivering value to partners and continuous innovation to meet partner demands, noting that while some deals are won and some are lost, the long-term outlook remains strong.

Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. asked about the use of AI in the B2B business and for an update on Vrbo's performance, including its bookings decline and mix shift.

Answer

CEO Ariane Gorin addressed Vrbo by stating they are filling foundational supply gaps, such as recently unlocking last-minute deals to cater to more trip types. On B2B and AI, she said it's still early days for using AI agents to help supply partners with tasks like inventory onboarding, but she sees exciting potential for agentic AI to improve servicing and efficiency.

Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. asked about the outlook for Vrbo, particularly for the summer season if U.S. international travel slows. He also questioned the flexibility of Vrbo's brand marketing spend and whether it could be pulled back if the macro environment deteriorates.

Answer

CEO Ariane Gorin noted that Vrbo is a U.S.-concentrated brand that has now grown for three consecutive quarters, albeit modestly. She confirmed that the company closely monitors market demand and marketing returns, indicating that advertising spend is not fixed and can be adjusted based on performance and the economic climate.

Jed Kelly questioned the implied deceleration in the B2B segment within the 2025 guidance. He also asked why Q1 EBITDA margins were guided to be flat, given the company would be lapping a period of reduced advertising spend on Vrbo.

Answer

CFO Scott Schenkel clarified the full-year guidance, noting that after adjusting for a 2-point FX headwind and timing shifts like Easter, the underlying growth is closer to 7-9%. CEO Ariane Gorin corrected the premise of the second question, stating the significant Vrbo ad pullback occurred in Q4 2023, not Q1 2024. Schenkel added that the flat Q1 margin guidance provides flexibility to invest in marketing as needed while still achieving overhead leverage.

Jed Kelly inquired about the opportunity to integrate Vrbo's inventory into the B2B business. He also requested an update on the performance of Hotels.com since its replatforming and loyalty program changes.

Answer

CEO Ariane Gorin acknowledged that integrating Vrbo into B2B is a long-term opportunity, but it is not a top priority currently due to complexities like traveler-host communications. Regarding Hotels.com, she reported that its Q3 performance was stable but had not yet returned to growth, as it was significantly impacted by the migration and loyalty changes. However, it is now benefiting from the company's renewed international focus, and a new general manager is in place.

Jed Kelly questioned the significant increase in Q4 marketing spend for experiences, asking if it was due to competitive intensity or new channel testing, and inquired about potential partnerships, such as event ticketing, to drive more repeat traffic.

Answer

CFO Michael Noonan clarified that Q4 marketing spend was consistent with a disciplined ROI approach, noting that marketing as a percentage of GBV was flat year-over-year, and that the company remains flexible to accelerate growth while maintaining long-term targets. President and CEO Matt Goldberg confirmed ongoing discussions with partners, including in live events and ticketing, as areas for future growth and repeat booking opportunities.

Jed Kelly asked if the increased marketing spend in experiences during Q4 was due to competitive intensity or testing new channels. He also inquired about Tripadvisor's exploration of partnerships, such as event ticketing, to drive more repeat traffic.

Answer

Michael Noonan, CFO, clarified that the Q4 marketing spend in experiences reflected a disciplined ROI approach, with marketing as a percentage of GBV remaining flat year-over-year. He emphasized flexibility in seeking growth while adhering to long-term margin targets, noting that geo expansion offers new opportunities. Matt Goldberg, President and CEO, confirmed that Tripadvisor is actively exploring partnerships, including in live events and ticketing, and local activities, as part of its strategy to drive repeat bookings and expand supply.

Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. inquired about potential shifts in Viator's marketing strategy given the U.S. environment and competition, and asked for the expected diluted share count following the Liberty TripAdvisor merger.

Answer

CFO Mike Noonan stated there is no major shift in Viator's marketing; the focus remains on an efficient flywheel of paid acquisition, conversion, and repeat business. CEO Matt Goldberg added a focus on cross-channel efficiency. Mike Noonan provided the share count, noting it would be approximately 118 million outstanding after retiring 23.8 million shares post-transaction.

Jed Kelly asked for a breakdown of Brand Tripadvisor's performance, distinguishing between travel normalization and SEO headwinds from Google, and sought to clarify if higher investment is planned to reaccelerate Viator's growth in 2025.

Answer

CFO Mike Noonan confirmed there were no new incremental headwinds for Hotel Meta beyond the well-understood pressures in search, which the company manages for profitability. CEO Matt Goldberg added that the core strategy is to drive direct engagement via the app to counter these issues. Regarding Viator, management indicated that while significant growth opportunities exist, investment levels for 2025 are still being planned and will be deployed with discipline.

Jed Kelly inquired about the long-term opportunity for taxis on the Lyft platform, including their presence in current cities and medium-term potential, and how their financial profile compares to regular Lyft rides.

Answer

CEO David Risher noted that welcoming taxis in St. Louis, L.A., and San Francisco adds quality supply, especially given their importance in Europe and FREENOW's expertise. He highlighted the regulatory relationship benefits. CFO Erin Brewer added that taxis serve as a strong supply lever for marketplace health. She expressed satisfaction with FREENOW's post-acquisition progress, including improved conversion rates and reduced driver cancellations, keeping it on track for its EUR 1 billion exit rate target.

Jed Kelly asked about the long-term opportunity for taxis on the platform, their medium-term potential, and if their financial profile is similar to regular Lyft rides.

Answer

CEO David Risher noted that welcoming taxis in St. Louis, L.A., and San Francisco adds quality supply, especially important in Europe where FREENOW's expertise helps with regulator relationships. CFO Erin Brewer added that taxis are a strong supply lever, and FREENOW's marketplace health has improved with lower driver cancellations, on track for a EUR 1 billion exit rate in 2025 into 2026.

Jed Kelly asked about the drivers behind the 40% bookings growth, specifically how direct connections with suppliers (NDC) contribute to higher conversion and better merchandising. He also inquired about Navan's M&A strategy and the efficiencies gained from its tech platform.

Answer

Ariel Cohen (CEO) explained that Navan's cloud connectivity and direct airline connections (NDC) enable better merchandising and accurate pricing, fostering traveler trust and efficient booking (average 7 minutes for a business trip). He stated Navan is always seeking M&A opportunities to expand its platform (e.g., meetings, VIP travel) but believes its in-house AI development, Navan Cognition, is superior to external options for complex travel use cases.

Jed Kelly asked about the drivers behind the 40% bookings growth, specifically how direct supplier connections contribute, and about Navan's M&A strategy and efficiencies from its tech platform.

Answer

CEO Ariel Cohen explained that Navan's cloud connectivity and direct connections (NDC) ensure better merchandising and pricing, building traveler trust, while AI personalizes content for faster booking. He stated Navan seeks M&A for platform expansion but believes its in-house AI development (Cognition, Ava, Edge) is superior to external options.

Jed Kelly asked about DraftKings' investment strategy for next year, beyond the incremental investments in prediction markets, specifically inquiring about core OSB and iGaming products, new state launches, and other potential investment areas like AI.

Answer

Jason Robins, Co-founder and CEO of DraftKings, stated that core OSB and iGaming products in established states are unlikely to see significant incremental investment, potentially even a reduction in promotions and marketing. He confirmed continued investment in newer states like Missouri and anticipated future iGaming and sports betting bills. Prediction markets will see investment with conservative, faster paybacks. Mr. Robins also highlighted AI as a key investment area, expecting both cost reductions and incremental investment with longer-term efficiency and revenue generation impacts.

Jed Kelly asked about the investment outlook for next year, specifically where DraftKings plans to invest beyond prediction markets, including OSB, iGaming, new hires, and AI.

Answer

Jason Robins, Co-founder and CEO of DraftKings, expects minimal to no incremental investment in core OSB and iGaming products in mature states, potentially even a reduction in promotions/marketing. Investments will continue in newer states (e.g., Missouri) and any new state launches. Prediction markets will see investment with conservative, faster paybacks. AI is another investment area, expected to yield both cost reductions and incremental investment with longer-term efficiency and revenue impacts.

Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer asked about July handle and hold trends and the outlook for the second half of the year. He also inquired about DraftKings' competitive positioning with iGaming-first players versus its traditional strength with sportsbook-first customers.

Answer

Co-Founder & CEO Jason Robins noted that while the July sports calendar impacted soccer handle, core sports like baseball and golf saw double-digit handle growth. On iGaming, he stated that DraftKings leads in cross-selling from its sportsbook but sees a major opportunity to attract the 'slots casino first' player who may not yet associate the brand with casino.

Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. asked about any observable handle or hold trends in July and inquired about DraftKings' competitive positioning with iGaming-first players versus its traditional sportsbook-first customer base.

Answer

Co-Founder & CEO Jason Robins noted that July's sports calendar differed from last year, but major sports like baseball and golf saw double-digit handle growth. On iGaming, he stated the biggest opportunity is with the 'slots casino first player.' He believes DraftKings leads in cross-selling sportsbook customers but needs to continue building its brand to attract players who may not yet associate DraftKings with a primary casino destination.

Jed Kelly asked if a higher mix of live betting would lead to lower overall hold rates. He also questioned whether the increase in R&D spending was driven more by product development or recent acquisitions, noting the improved NBA product.

Answer

CEO Jason Robins explained that the impact of live betting on hold depends on the bet type; micro-bets may have lower hold, while in-game parlays can have higher hold. He confirmed that the R&D increase is driven by recent acquisitions and thanked Kelly for the positive feedback on the NBA product, noting more updates are coming for baseball and golf.

Jed Kelly from Oppenheimer & Co. asked if the successful Jackpocket cross-sell justifies more investment in the app in states without legal sports betting. He also requested an update on the competitiveness of DraftKings' NBA product.

Answer

CEO Jason Robins confirmed Jackpocket's success and noted there is room for more investment, though it's most effective in states where immediate cross-sell to sports betting or iGaming is possible. He stated that DraftKings' NBA product is now 'as good as anyone in the market,' representing a significant improvement over the past two years.

Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. inquired about iGaming promotional velocity trends and learnings from the 'King of the Court' promotion.

Answer

CEO Jason Robins described the 'King of the Court' promotion as a 'real big success' that provides principles for future promotions. Regarding iGaming, he stated that promotional velocity has been 'pretty steady' year-over-year when adjusted for new customer acquisition, with the overall rate declining as the customer base matures.

Jed Kelly asked about the evolving go-to-market strategy for the media segment, particularly with the sales force, following recent acquisitions and growth. He also questioned if the 30% live betting mix includes a shift towards higher-margin products like TD products, benefiting GGR.

Answer

Mark Locke (CEO) stated the go-to-market strategy remains focused on agencies, deploying products, acquiring large brands, and proving value, with Sports Innovation Lab significantly aiding this. While overall in-play betting is roughly flat, Mark Locke highlighted that BetVision, representing deeper fan engagement, shows an in-play mix closer to 70%-75%, indicating that deeper engagement drives more in-play wagering.

Jed Kelly asked about the evolving go-to-market strategy for the media segment with Salesforce and recent acquisitions, and also inquired if the 30% in-play betting mix indicates more bettors are using higher-margin products like TD products.

Answer

Mark Locke (CEO) stated the go-to-market strategy remains focused on agencies, product deployment, and acquiring large brands, with Sports Innovation Lab aiding strong results. Regarding in-play, Mark Locke (CEO) reiterated the overall mix is flat but noted BetVision's in-play mix is 70-75% for deeper engagement.

Jed Kelly from Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. asked about the timeline for negotiations with European sportsbook operators following the recent football contract wins. He also inquired whether new Fanhub contracts would be based on managed spend (gross revenue) or self-service (net revenue).

Answer

Mark Locke (Co-Founder, CEO & Director) clarified that the new rights deals represent additional products sold to sportsbooks under existing contracts, with sales happening now. Nicholas Taylor (CFO) added that for Fanhub, the accounting treatment depends on the model: self-serve deals would likely be on a net basis, while managed programmatic services would remain on a gross basis. Mark Locke emphasized the new PMG agency deal is a critical 'proof point' for their strategy.

Jed Kelly questioned if the new NCAA deal could help secure college football contracts and if the company's replay technology (SAOT) could be expanded to other major U.S. sports. He also asked how much time the technology saves.

Answer

CEO Mark Locke confirmed that Genius's technology is already deployed across most major college conferences, putting them in a strong position for future deals. He noted that applying SAOT to U.S. sports is a clear opportunity, highlighting its success in the English Premier League, where it has been well-received for speeding up the game and cutting review times down from several minutes.

Jed Kelly asked about the growth outlook and revenue visibility for the Sports Technology segment into 2025 and 2026, and how Genius Sports stands to benefit from the NFL's expansion in Europe.

Answer

CFO Nicholas Taylor confirmed expectations for continued growth in Sports Tech, highlighting its strategic importance. CEO Mark Locke elaborated that the underlying technology provides a platform for media business acceleration. Regarding the NFL in Europe, Locke noted its growing popularity and how Genius's product suite, especially BetVision, is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend and its expansion to other sports.

Jed Kelly questioned whether Q4 revenue growth would be driven more by media or sports betting, the potential for a one-time revenue deceleration from the shift to a self-service media model, and asked for a full-year free cash flow target.

Answer

CEO Mark Locke clarified that the self-service media platform targets new revenue and is not expected to cannibalize the existing managed services business initially. CFO Nicholas Taylor stated that Q4 growth will be driven by both the sports betting and media segments. He reiterated the expectation for positive free cash flow for the full year 2024 but declined to provide a specific range, citing the variability of year-end cash timing.

Jed Kelly inquired about the drivers of strength in the personal loans business, the potential impact of AI on the expense base, and whether LendingTree was affected by a competitor losing a major contract.

Answer

COO Scott Peyree attributed personal loan strength to strong execution and growing lender optimism, noting an interest rate cut would be an accelerant. CFO Jason Bengel explained that AI is expected to significantly boost productivity and automate tasks, allowing employees to focus on higher-value work. Bengel also confirmed that a competitor's contract loss does not affect LendingTree due to its on-demand business model without long-term commitments.

Jed Kelly questioned the expected trajectory for the Insurance segment's Variable Marketing Margin (VMM) as revenue normalizes and inquired about the growth and attractiveness of the home insurance product.

Answer

COO Scott Peyree reiterated a long-term VMM target in the low-to-mid 30s, acknowledging a temporary step back in Q1 but expecting improvement. Peyree also confirmed that home insurance is a popular and growing product, with carrier interest driving more growth than anticipated. CFO Jason Bengel added that while margins will improve, they are not expected to reach the normalized target in the near term.

Jed Kelly asked for insights on market share dynamics within the insurance marketplace and how to assess sustained share gains after the current upcycle. Additionally, he inquired about how the possibility of lower interest rates is factored into the company's full-year guidance.

Answer

Scott Peyree, COO, stated that the top 3-4 insurance carriers continue to drive the market. Douglas Lebda, Chairman and CEO, and Jason Bengel, CFO, addressed the interest rate question, confirming the full-year guide does not assume any material rate reductions. They clarified that the forecast is built on the continuation of current trends, particularly the strength in the home equity product.

Jed Kelly asked for a roadmap of the insurance marketing industry over the next 18 months, how LendingTree is differentiating itself and gaining share, and the impact of recent Google SEO and AI changes on traffic.

Answer

Scott Peyree, COO and President of Marketplace Businesses, stated that while the 'hockey stick' growth in insurance may moderate, he expects strong results to continue as carriers have high demand for new consumers and will eventually enter rate-reduction cycles. He highlighted LendingTree's differentiation through its diverse product offerings (clicks, leads, calls, agency) and broad client base. CEO Douglas Lebda and Scott Peyree both addressed the Google question, emphasizing a strategy of traffic source independence, a sophisticated partnership with Google on paid search AI bidding, and strong traffic results from the platform.

Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. asked about the drivers behind the strong 25% growth in Ontario, the rationale for flat back-half EBITDA guidance despite historical sequential growth, and the impact of sports betting hold in Q2.

Answer

CEO Richard Schwartz attributed Ontario's growth to focused investment in the dual sports and casino market but noted it's difficult to determine if gains came from gray market operators. CFO Kyle Sauers explained the EBITDA guidance reflects an expected increase in marketing spend in Q3 and Q4. Sauers also quantified that favorable sports outcomes in North America contributed approximately $5 million to Q2 revenue.

Jed Kelly inquired about the drivers of RSI's strong marketing leverage despite a competitive environment. He also asked for an explanation of the implied revenue growth deceleration in the full-year guidance and the expected tax rate for adjusted EPS.

Answer

CEO Richard Schwartz attributed the marketing leverage to a superior and differentiated player experience that drives retention, rather than a large budget or brand. Executive Kyle Sauers explained the guidance reflects lapping the Delaware launch, the full-quarter impact of the Colombian VAT tax headwind in Q2/Q3, and prudence regarding potential changes in consumer behavior. He noted he would follow up on the specific tax rate.

Jed Kelly questioned how RSI would adjust its marketing and operations in New Jersey if a proposed tax increase were enacted. He also asked for potential catalysts that could accelerate the slow pace of iCasino legalization in new states.

Answer

Executive Kyle Sauers responded that it was too early to detail a competitive response to a potential New Jersey tax hike but noted the company is well-capitalized. CEO Richard Schwartz addressed iCasino legalization, identifying growing industry alignment, states' need for tax revenue, and the existence of unregulated gaming as key accelerants. He expressed optimism that this message is beginning to resonate more with state governors.

Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. inquired about the LTV to CAC ratios observed in the U.S. and Canada during the recent football season and questioned the decision to implement a share buyback program instead of a dividend.

Answer

Executive Kyle Sauers explained that while not providing specific cohort data, the company continues to acquire new players at attractive costs with strong predicted LTVs. Regarding the buyback, Sauers stated that management believes it's the right time given the strong visibility into cash flow prospects, providing flexibility to return capital to shareholders while preserving capacity for new market launches and potential M&A.

Jed Kelly from Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. asked for the rationale behind choosing to reinvest for growth instead of maximizing near-term margin expansion. He also inquired if CarGurus would consider restructuring CarOffer to be more like a traditional auction to boost dealer adoption.

Answer

CEO Jason Trevisan stated that the company is investing to capitalize on its current momentum and expand its market leadership while both sides of the marketplace are growing strongly. Sam Zales, President and COO, addressed the CarOffer question, explaining that the strategy is to build on their unique competitive advantages, like proprietary data insights, rather than creating a 'me-too' auction product. He confirmed they are assessing the entire transaction model to find a more scalable and profitable structure but are focused on differentiated offerings.

Jed Kelly asked about the state of the Booking.com brand in the U.S. and inquired about efforts to simplify the onboarding process for single-unit alternative accommodation property managers, who reportedly find it complex.

Answer

CEO Glenn Fogel acknowledged that the U.S. onboarding process for single-unit hosts is an area for improvement and represents a significant opportunity. He also noted that brand awareness in the U.S. is improving but has more room to grow. CFO Ewout Steenbergen clarified that recent U.S. growth should be viewed as stable despite slight changes in the reported growth bucket.