Jeff Cantwell

Jeff Cantwell followed up on the 2026 guidance, noting that the adjusted EBITDA midpoint implies a slight margin compression and asked for clarification on the underlying business plan and whether this reflects conservatism.

Answer

Robert Leibrock (CFO, ACI Worldwide) clarified that the EBITDA growth of 6%-9% aligns with revenue growth, reflecting operating leverage. He noted that the slight margin compression allows for repurposing investments into new platforms like Kinetic and Speedpay ONE, similar to 2025 where investment in Kinetic doubled. Thomas Warsop (President and CEO, ACI Worldwide) added that the guidance reflects prudence and a commitment to delivering on stated commitments, which could be perceived as conservatism.

Jeff Cantwell inquired about ACI Worldwide's 2026 revenue guidance, specifically the building blocks driving the expected H2 acceleration, and the confidence in these drivers across the Payment Software and Biller segments. He also asked about the implied slight compression in adjusted EBITDA margins for 2026, seeking clarification on the underlying business plan and any conservatism.

Answer

CFO Robert Leibrock explained that the 7-9% revenue growth guidance is balanced across both Payment Software and Biller segments, with strong visibility due to the high recurring revenue model. He attributed the H2 weighting to renewal fee phasing and the timing of new bookings and implementations from 2025. President and CEO Thomas Warsop reiterated high confidence based on visibility into the renewal book and on-track implementations of 2025 deals. Regarding EBITDA, Robert Leibrock noted the 6-9% growth guidance reflects continued operating leverage and strategic reinvestment into new platforms like Connetic and SpeedPay One, similar to 2025's reprioritization. Thomas Warsop added that the guidance reflects prudence and a commitment to delivering on stated commitments.

Jeff Cantwell from Seaport Research Partners asked for details on the unit economics of a stablecoin transaction processed by ACI compared to other payment methods. He also requested a breakdown of the key factors behind the Q3 adjusted EBITDA guidance and what would drive results to the high or low end of the range.

Answer

CEO Thomas Warsop explained that unit economics depend on volume; currently, a lower-volume real-time payment for a stablecoin would generate significantly more revenue than a high-volume debit transaction. CFO Robert Leibrock detailed that the Q3 EBITDA guidance reflects a sequential increase in higher-margin Payment Software revenue. The range accounts for the timing uncertainty of closing new high-margin license deals, with a favorable mix of these new signings driving results toward the high end.

Jeffrey Cantwell asked for more detail on the Payment Software segment's strong 42% growth, its outlook for the year, the strategic rationale for the Ingo Payments partnership, and the growth expectations for the Biller segment.

Answer

CEO Thomas Warsop and CFO Scott Behrens explained that the Payment Software segment's Q1 strength was due to signing net new business earlier than anticipated, pulling revenue forward. They reiterated the full-year guidance of 7-9% constant currency growth for the segment. Regarding the Ingo partnership, Warsop described the move into disbursements as a key strategic expansion to create a more comprehensive money movement business. He also expressed cautious optimism for the Biller segment, citing its non-discretionary nature.

Jeffrey Cantwell from Seaport Research Partners inquired about the factors that would drive results to the higher or lower end of the full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance. He also requested more details on the competitive takeaway in Asia Pacific and the overall sales environment.

Answer

CFO Scott Behrens explained that reaching the high end of EBITDA guidance is driven by the company's scalable model, with a favorable mix of high-margin license revenue being a key factor. CEO Thomas Warsop added that another significant new license deal could push them to the high end. Regarding the APAC win, Warsop attributed it to a competitor's service failure and ACI's compelling modernization path via its 'Kinetic' payments hub, which offers a low-risk transition to new technology.

Jeffrey Cantwell questioned the potential impact of the recent U.S. election on the business, particularly for bank customers, and asked if the medium-term outlook for the individual business segments has changed.

Answer

CEO Thomas Warsop expressed cautious optimism that a new U.S. administration could lead to less regulation and more transaction growth, which would be upside, but stressed that ACI is a global company and nothing has been built into forecasts. CFO Scott Behrens added that banks have tailwinds contributing to technology spending. Regarding segments, both executives confirmed the outlook is largely unchanged: the Bank segment remains a key driver of strength, the Biller segment's exit rate should accelerate, and the Merchant segment continues its incremental improvement.

Jeff Cantwell asked for details on the customer acquisition cost (CAC) trend, inquiring about any changes in acquisition strategy that led to adding 500,000 active members in Q4. He also sought clarification on the drivers behind the 8x LTV to CAC, specifically whether it's primarily due to higher LTV from new products or lower CAC.

Answer

Matt Newcomb, CFO, stated that over 50% of new actives continue to come from organic and member-driven channels like referrals. He reported that CAC for the full year 2025 was down about 10% year-over-year, attributed to early engagement initiatives. Newcomb emphasized that LTV gains are the primary driver of the strong LTV to CAC, which is north of 8x. Key contributors to LTV include the step-up in transaction margin from Chime Core migration, MyPay loss rate improvement, and strong Chime Card adoption among new cohorts, which have a credit mix close to 50% and earn nearly 2x the take rate of debit.

Jeff Cantwell asked for details on the customer acquisition cost (CAC) side of the LTV to CAC equation, including current trends and any changes in acquisition strategy. He also sought to understand the drivers behind the 8x LTV to CAC and the expected RPAM growth and its immediate drivers for 2026.

Answer

Matt Newcomb, CFO, stated that over 50% of new actives come from organic and referral channels, with CAC for full-year 2025 down about 10% year-over-year due to early engagement initiatives. He attributed the strong 8x LTV to CAC primarily to LTV gains, driven by transaction margin improvements from Chime Core, MyPay loss rate reduction, and strong Chime Card adoption. For RPAM, he cited Chime Card, the new MyPay pricing model, and Instant Loans as key drivers for 2026.

Jeff Cantwell of Seaport Research Partners requested the building blocks for Circle's FY2026 other revenue guidance of $150 million-$170 million, asking what is causing the step-up compared to FY2025. He also sought a high-level rollout plan for Arc post-mainnet launch and whether elements of Arc and CPN are expected to mesh to deliver more client value.

Answer

Jeremy Fox-Geen, CFO of Circle, explained that FY2025 other revenue of $110 million comprised roughly $25 million from subscription and services (primarily blockchain network partnerships with upfront and recurring elements) and $12 million from transaction revenue (including value-added products and validator infrastructure, with an unusually high contribution from Canton Coin trading in Q4). He noted that these monetizing products are very early stage, having started in late 2024/early 2025. Jeremy Allaire, Co-founder, CEO, and Chairman of Circle, detailed Arc's mainnet transition, focusing on delivering key technologies for tokenization and AI agents, and bringing on a first wave of strategic partners for proof-of-authority validation. He emphasized deep integration across Circle's product stack for optimal USDC liquidity and readiness from the digital asset ecosystem. Allaire confirmed Arc will be a key infrastructure for CPN, enhancing speed, reliability, and efficiency, and simplifying flows with best-in-class interoperability. StableFX, running natively on Arc, will serve as the FX backplane for real-time, atomically swapped liquidity across currencies, supporting CPN transactions.

Jeff Cantwell requested the building blocks for Circle's 'other revenue' guidance of $150-$170 million for the current year, asking for a breakdown and the reasons for the step-up from 2025. He also sought a high-level rollout plan for Arc post-Mainnet launch and whether Arc and CPN are expected to integrate to deliver enhanced client value.

Answer

Jeremy Fox-Geen, CFO of Circle, explained that 'other revenue' in Q4 2025 was $36.8 million, comprising $25 million from subscription/services (primarily blockchain network partnerships and USYC asset management fees) and $12 million from transaction revenue (value-added products and validator infrastructure). Jeremy Allaire, Co-founder, CEO, and Chairman of Circle, outlined Arc's Mainnet rollout, focusing on technology delivery for institutions and AI agents, and bringing on strategic partners. Allaire confirmed Arc will be a key infrastructure for CPN, enhancing speed, reliability, and efficiency, and simplifying flows. StableFX, running natively on Arc, will serve as the FX backplane, supporting real-time, atomically swapped liquidity across currencies.

Jeff Cantwell inquired about Circle's reaction to Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller's comments on the Fed's active role in payments and DeFi/crypto, and whether Circle has a seat at that table. He also asked about the drivers behind Circle's market share gains for USDC and the impact of the Genius Act on U.S. demand.

Answer

Jeremy Allaire, Co-Founder, CEO, and Chairman, expressed 100% alignment with Governor Waller, stating that Circle's infrastructure is fundamental to the emerging on-chain financial system and represents a wholesale architecture shift. He affirmed Circle's intent to be a leading internet platform company in this new age. Regarding market share, Mr. Allaire attributed strong growth to regulatory clarity, technology advancements, and increasing adoption by major financial institutions, payments firms, and neobanks, noting that mainstream players seek trusted infrastructure like Circle.

Jeff Cantwell asked for Circle's reaction to Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller's comments on the Fed's active role in payments and DeFi/crypto, and whether Circle has a seat at that table. He also inquired about the drivers behind Circle's USDC market share gains, particularly any impact from the passing of the Genius Act.

Answer

CEO Jeremy Allaire expressed 100% alignment with Governor Waller, stating that Circle's infrastructure is fundamental to the emerging on-chain financial system. He noted that USDC's strong growth and market share expansion are driven by regulatory clarity, technological advancements, and increasing adoption by major financial institutions, which prefer Circle's trusted and compliant infrastructure.

Jeff Cantwell of Seaport Research Partners asked for more color on the drivers of USDC growth since the Genius Act's passage, sought clarification on the 40% CAGR growth outlook, and requested a breakdown of the sources of on-chain transaction volume.

Answer

Chairman, CEO & Co-Founder Jeremy Allaire attributed post-Genius Act momentum primarily to increased institutional interest. CFO Jeremy Fox-Geen explained the 40% CAGR outlook is a conservative core model, below the 60% median of third-party forecasts. Regarding transaction volume, both executives explained it's geographically distributed and comes from all financial use cases, making specific breakdowns difficult.

Jeff Cantwell inquired about the increase in Affirm's FY26 operating margin guide, the sources of additional operating leverage, and expectations for individual expense lines (G&A, sales & marketing, tech & data analytics), as well as the GMV guidance breakdown.

Answer

Max Levchin, Founder and CEO, explained that the operating leverage comes from growth, specifically increased revenue-less transaction cost dollars flowing to the operating income line, rather than cost-cutting. He declined to provide specific guidance for individual OPEX lines, and for GMV breakdown, noted that 0% monthly installment loans continue to be the fastest-growing product.

Jeff Cantwell inquired about the source of additional operating leverage driving the increased FY 2026 operating margin guide and sought expectations for G&A, sales and marketing, and tech and data analytics expenses for the remainder of the year. He also asked for more details on the Q2 GMV guidance breakdown.

Answer

Max Levchin explained that the operating leverage comes from increased revenue-less transaction cost dollars flowing to the operating income line, driven by growth, not cost-cutting. He declined to provide specific guidance for individual OpEx lines, preferring to guide to a margin. Regarding GMV, he noted that 0% monthly installment loans continue to be the fastest-growing product.

Jeffrey Cantwell of Seaport Research Partners asked for the rationale behind the sequential step-down in the sales and marketing expense line and inquired about the right forward-looking level for this spending.

Answer

CFO Robert O'Hare explained that the decrease was primarily due to the end of the amortization period for warrant expense related to a large partner. He stated that this was the first quarter without that non-cash expense and that the current quarter's run rate is a reasonable expectation for the next quarter.

Jeffrey Cantwell asked about the sales and marketing expense line, questioning why it stepped down in the quarter and what the appropriate level should be going forward.

Answer

CFO Robert O'Hare explained that the decrease was primarily due to the end of the amortization period for warrant expense related to a large partner in the prior quarter. He indicated that the current quarter's expense level is a reasonable run rate to expect going forward.

Jeff Cantwell questioned the drivers behind the raised full-year revenue guidance, sought clarity on the potential P&L impact from data aggregator fees, and asked about the company's high-level M&A strategy.

Answer

CEO Jason Wilk attributed the optimistic guidance to strong new member acquisition, efficient marketing paybacks now at four months, and improved Extra Cash monetization. On data fees, Wilk expressed confidence that prices may not increase due to regulatory pushback and that Dave's scale and pricing power would mitigate any impact. Regarding M&A, he stated the company focuses on opportunities that either expand customer distribution or are accretive to ARPU through new products.

Jeffrey Cantwell asked for more details on Dave Card's traction and growth outlook, given its strong volume increase. He also requested a breakdown of the drivers behind the 29% ARPU growth and how the company balances member acquisition with deepening engagement.

Answer

Executive Jason Wilk attributed the Dave Card's growth to organic synergy with ExtraCash and mentioned the company is testing rewards to drive further adoption. He stated the significant ARPU growth was largely driven by the new, more durable fee structure, with further expansion expected in Q2. Executive Kyle Beilman added that other ARPU levers include increasing Dave Card adoption and using CashAI to move members to higher origination sizes, which is better incentivized under the new model.

Jeffrey Cantwell asked for a breakdown of the 2025 revenue growth guidance between service-based and transaction-based revenue, sought expectations for the provision for credit loss line, and requested more details on the new partnership with Coastal Community Bank.

Answer

CEO Jason Wilk indicated that near-term growth opportunities are concentrated on the ARPU side due to the new fee model, which may favor service-based revenue, but did not provide specific line-item guidance. He expressed confidence in managing credit loss performance through new underwriting initiatives. Regarding the new partner, Wilk explained that Coastal Community Bank's superior ability to offer additional credit products was the catalyst for the relationship, with new customer onboarding to begin in Q2.

Jeff Cantwell asked for an overall assessment of the education business, wondering if the worst of the headwinds had passed. He also inquired about the execution potential in newer international markets and the incremental impact of the U.S. domestic land-and-expand strategy.

Answer

CFO Cosmin Pitigoi noted that Q3 is expected to be the growth low point for the year, with an acceleration into Q4. President & COO Rob Orgel emphasized Flywire's effectiveness in new international markets, where revenue is growing well above the company average. He also explained the U.S. land-and-expand strategy is highly accretive, adding multiple revenue streams, with significant runway as the SFS attach rate is still only around 10%.

Jeff Cantwell of Seaport Research Partners asked about the drivers behind the full-year guidance raise by vertical and for an updated view on the puts and takes for the Global Blue acquisition.

Answer

Taylor Lauber, President and incoming CEO, stated the guidance raise reflects confidence in international growth and the business's resilience, noting that a slowdown in international travel often boosts domestic travel, a net neutral or positive for Shift4. On Global Blue, he highlighted the cultural alignment and the business's proven ability to perform well through economic shocks by focusing on controllable factors like product experience.

Jeffrey Cantwell asked for clarification on the Merchant Solutions take rate for Q1, given recent momentum, and sought more detail on the drivers of the gross margin guidance, specifically the impact from the enterprise push and PayPal accounting.

Answer

CFO Jeff Hoffmeister explained that the Merchant Solutions attach rate benefits from the strength in Payments and growth in other products like Capital and Tax. He noted that the Q1 gross margin guidance is impacted by the relative growth rates of Merchant Solutions vs. Subscription Solutions, with the latter facing headwinds from the shift to 3-month trials. He confirmed these were the key drivers.

Jeffrey Cantwell asked how developments in AI, such as DeepSeek, are influencing Visa's business strategy, both for managing internal costs and for creating new revenue opportunities.

Answer

Ryan McInerney, Chief Executive Officer, stated that Visa was an early adopter of AI and is aggressively using new technologies, including generative AI, across the company. He cited productivity gains in engineering and decades of experience in risk management. He affirmed that Visa believes AI will fundamentally change digital commerce and that the company is working to ensure it plays a central role in this evolution.

Asked about Block's Bitcoin strategy, seeking opinions on potential U.S. regulatory clarity, how Block might capitalize on it, the amount of Bitcoin on their balance sheet, and the potential impact of regulation on broader crypto adoption.

Answer

Jack Dorsey stated that regulatory clarity would be very helpful. Block's strategy remains focused solely on Bitcoin to create a native internet currency, which would accelerate their business. They aim to make it more accessible, secure (via Bitkey and mining), and usable. Amrita Ahuja added that Block holds just over 8,300 Bitcoin on its balance sheet.