Jeffrey Bernstein

Jeffrey Bernstein asked about franchisee sentiment given the competitive environment, negative traffic, and pressure on P&Ls in 2025. He inquired about their requests, willingness to invest in the Jack on Track plan, and broader sentiment. He followed up by asking for directional top and bottom-line assumptions for the Jack story beyond the transition, looking towards fiscal 2027, including unit growth.

Answer

CEO Lance Tucker acknowledged the pressure on franchisee P&Ls and confirmed that conversations are pointed but respectful, with franchisees supporting the brand and working to drive results. He mentioned the need for a comprehensive reimage program, with testing of a mini-reimage, and that franchisees will need time to reinvest. He highlighted nearly $2 million AUVs but noted pressures on smaller franchisees. For the long-term, Mr. Tucker indicated that while specific guidance will come later, the algorithm would likely involve an asset-light model, primarily franchise openings, reduced CapEx, moderate G&A, and low single-digit comps, with unit growth likely 2-3 years away after cost reduction efforts.

Jeffrey Bernstein inquired about franchisee sentiment given the competitive landscape and negative traffic, their willingness to invest in the Jack on Track plan, and the long-term top and bottom-line growth assumptions for the standalone Jack in the Box brand beyond 2026.

Answer

CEO Lance Tucker acknowledged that 2025 was challenging for franchisee P&Ls, leading to more pointed but respectful conversations. He noted franchisees want positive sales and are willing to support the brand. While a comprehensive reimage program is planned for late 2026, a more affordable 'mini reimage' is being tested to provide immediate benefits and allow franchisees time to plan. He also mentioned that long-term guidance would be provided later, but the algorithm would likely involve an asset-light model with primarily franchise openings, reduced CapEx, moderate G&A, and low single-digit comps, with unit growth a few years away.

Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays asked for more color on the strategic alternatives for Del Taco beyond a divestiture, inquiring about other potential options, the level of early interest, and the expected timeline for a decision.

Answer

CEO Lance Tucker indicated that while he couldn't discuss the process in depth, the company has received 'significant reach out and interest' in the Del Taco brand before beginning an official marketing process. He suggested that given the strong early interest, a divestiture appears to be the most probable outcome.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked a two-part question: first, about the ongoing franchise acquisition activity, the nature of these conversations, the number of outstanding franchises, and potential future targets for 2026. Second, he inquired about the 2026 capital expenditure guidance of $400 million, which is similar to 2025 despite more new unit openings and inflation, asking about the offsetting factors.

Answer

Keith Humpich, Interim CFO, stated that after the California acquisition, approximately 31 franchises remain, with ongoing conversations with three large groups, indicating expectations for future acquisitions. Regarding CapEx, he clarified that the 2025 figure included a $23 million support center acquisition, making the 2026 guidance more comparable when that is factored out.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked about the company's franchise acquisition strategy, including the number of remaining targets, and the rationale behind the 2026 capital expenditure guidance being similar to 2025 despite plans for more new unit openings and inflation.

Answer

Keith Humpich, Interim CFO, stated that after the California acquisition, approximately 31 franchise locations will remain, with ongoing conversations expected to lead to future acquisitions. He clarified that the 2026 CapEx guidance of $400 million is comparable to 2025 when excluding the $23 million support center acquisition from the 2025 figure.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked for the reasons behind the sales slowdown in February and the subsequent strong rebound, and whether any lasting changes in consumer behavior, such as trade-down, were observed.

Answer

CFO David Monroe attributed the February dip entirely to adverse weather and influenza, which also drove a temporary increase in to-go sales. He confirmed a strong bounce-back afterward and stated that the company is not seeing any concerning consumer behavior, noting that guests are actually trading up to steak.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays asked for context on the Q1 comp trend given tougher comparisons ahead, and for an update on the ultimate store count opportunity for the Texas Roadhouse brand and the economics of new units.

Answer

Executive Michael Bailen cautioned against direct comparisons to 2024's sales growth due to different pricing levels but affirmed the company is positioned to continue growing traffic. CEO Gerald Morgan reiterated the long-term target of 900 domestic Texas Roadhouse restaurants. Michael Bailen added that the average new unit investment for 2025 is projected at $8.5-$8.6 million, and these units continue to meet or exceed the company's mid-teen IRR target.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays asked for commentary on the 'extremely competitive environment' and whether the comp slowdown from September to October was meaningful. He also requested a breakdown of the 30 planned unit openings for 2025.

Answer

CEO Jerry Morgan stated their strategy is to 'double down' on operational excellence in response to competition. Executive Michael Bailen clarified the comp slowdown was a function of lower pricing rollover; traffic actually accelerated from mid-4% in September to mid-5% in October. For 2025, the 30 company openings will be approximately low-20s for Texas Roadhouse, six to eight for Bubba's 33, and a couple for Jaggers.

Jeff Bernstein reflected on the expectation 12 months ago that fast food, and McDonald's specifically, would benefit from an economic slowdown by retaining low-income consumers with value and seeing trade-down from middle and upper-income segments, which did not fully materialize. He asked if, with a more compelling value offer and lapping prior weakness, it's reasonable to assume McDonald's could now benefit from both ends of the consumer spectrum converging back on the quick-service segment in 2026.

Answer

CEO Chris Kempczinski expressed a desire for that scenario but declined to predict its outcome. He emphasized that value is in McDonald's DNA, and the company is committed to protecting its leadership position in value, having taken actions where opportunities were identified. He stated that McDonald's will not lose on value and is well-prepared for 2026, ensuring that any potential opportunities will not be missed due to a lack of focus on value.

Jeff Bernstein asked for a high-level view on the value push, questioning if it's reasonable to assume that McDonald's could benefit from both ends of the consumer spectrum in 2026—retaining lower-income consumers with enhanced value and seeing trade-down from middle and upper-income consumers, especially as the company laps prior weakness and has a more compelling value offer.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Chris Kempczinski expressed that while he would welcome such a scenario, he would not predict it. He reiterated that value is in McDonald's DNA, and the company is committed to protecting its leadership position in value, having taken actions where opportunities existed. He emphasized that McDonald's will not lose on value and is well-prepared for 2026 in this regard, regardless of how the broader economic scenario plays out.

Jeffrey Bernstein inquired about the current state of franchisee sentiment and relationships, particularly concerning the push for value in the U.S. and accelerated unit growth internationally, given that franchisee profitability may be down year-over-year.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Chris Kempczinski acknowledged that the unease felt by consumers is mirrored by franchisees, who are also facing cost inflation pressures. He emphasized that the company's playbook of winning on value and affordability is the key to growing franchisee cash flow. Regarding development, he noted that much of the growth is in low-penetration areas, and importantly, the company is not having any difficulty finding franchisees globally who are willing to invest in new restaurants, which he sees as a sign of their underlying confidence.

Jeffrey Bernstein questioned how restaurant teams can handle a rapid pace of new products without hurting service speed and asked for early learnings from the new 'specialist' category teams.

Answer

CEO Christopher Kempczinski explained the new category teams provide a dedicated, global focus on winning in key verticals like beef, chicken, and beverages. President, IOM Ian Borden addressed operational capacity, stating that the U.S. system's prior work on menu simplification has created the capacity to handle new items. He noted customer satisfaction scores hit an all-time high in Q1, and new products are being added as platforms (e.g., McCrispy) to manage complexity.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked for clarification on the 'sluggish start to 2025' for the QSR industry, questioning if it was weather-related or a shift in consumer behavior. He also inquired about the launch timing for the Snack Wrap and new chicken strips.

Answer

CEO Christopher Kempczinski attributed the muted market primarily to pressure on the low-income consumer, noting that this demographic's spending was down double-digits for the industry in Q4. He emphasized the importance of the McValue platform in this environment. He declined to provide specific timing for new product launches like the Snack Wrap, stating they would come later in the year. CFO Ian Borden added that McDonald's expects to continue gaining market share despite industry headwinds.

Jeffrey Bernstein requested key metrics on the $5 value offer's success and asked for more detail on what a 'more holistic value platform' for Q1 2025 would entail.

Answer

CEO Christopher Kempczinski confirmed the $5 meal met its goals of improving value perception, engaging low-income consumers, and driving guest counts. He outlined that the future platform will be a branded concept, like 'McSmart' or 'Saver,' that houses multiple components: an everyday affordable price menu (EDAP), a meal deal, and digital-exclusive offers.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked about the Q3 comp shortfall, attributing it to macroeconomic headwinds versus internal missteps, and what actions CAVA would take if the challenging environment persists into 2026.

Answer

Tricia Tolivar, CFO, attributed the Q3 pressure primarily to the macro environment, stating there were no significant structural issues or missteps. Brett Schulman, CEO, reiterated that CAVA will not engage in heavy discounting to combat cyclical headwinds. Instead, the focus will be on doubling down on exceptional operations and guest experiences, emphasizing CAVA's holistic value proposition of quality food, relevant cuisine, and superior experience.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked how much of the Q3 comp shortfall was attributed to escalating macro headwinds versus internal missteps, and what adjustments CAVA might make if the challenging environment persists into 2026.

Answer

CFO Tricia Tolivar stated that the Q3 comp shortfall was primarily due to the macro environment, with no significant structural issues or missteps. She noted that a comp just under 2% was reasonable given the tough 18% compare from the prior year. CEO Brett Schulman added that CAVA will not engage in heavy discounting but will instead double down on exceptional operations and guest experiences, focusing on food quality, cuisine relevance, and order accuracy.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays Capital asked about the strong margin performance in Q2 despite a sales shortfall, questioning if this presents an opportunity to reinvest the 'over-earning' back into the business.

Answer

CFO Tricia Tolivar attributed the margin resilience to strong performance from new restaurants and the team's agility in managing costs at high AUVs. She noted that while they are always looking for reinvestment opportunities, the Q2 result was achieved without specific incremental investments, demonstrating the model's strength.

A representative for Jeff Bernstein of Barclays asked about the sustainability of CAVA's ~25% restaurant margin guidance, which is significantly above its 20% target from two years ago, and how the company prioritizes further expansion versus reinvestment.

Answer

CFO Tricia Tolivar attributed the margin strength to higher AUVs but emphasized a strategy of mindful reinvestment. She highlighted investments in team members through competitive compensation and in guests through disciplined pricing, noting CAVA's price increases have remained 8 points below CPI since late 2019, a strategy that helps fuel strong traffic.

Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays questioned why the 2025 adjusted EBITDA growth guidance appears to be below the company's long-term algorithm, despite strong same-store sales projections.

Answer

CFO Tricia Tolivar responded that the guidance reflects the anniversary of 2024's outsized growth and the company's commitment to making prudent investments to support sustainable, long-term success. She affirmed that the long-term growth algorithm remains fully intact.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked about the increased 2025 unit growth outlook of 17%+, questioning the guardrails for this pace and the balance between new and existing markets. He also inquired about the financial returns of new stores.

Answer

CFO Tricia Tolivar attributed the higher growth target to strong pipeline visibility. She noted that while they maintain a balanced market strategy, the excellent performance of new markets allows them to lean into that growth. A key governor is the pipeline of qualified General Managers, which she stated is strong for 2025. Regarding returns, she confirmed new units are exceeding expectations, delivering higher cash-on-cash returns earlier than anticipated.

Jeffrey Bernstein questioned the implied Q4 2025 comp decline, noting that easing comparisons should lead to an inflection, and asked how Wingstop plans to aggressively re-engage lower-income and minority consumers. He also sought to understand the extent to which recent deceleration was self-inflicted versus broader industry/consumer trends.

Answer

President and CEO Michael Skipworth acknowledged near-term choppiness and stabilized Q4 trends, but reiterated focus on long-term strategies like Smart Kitchen, loyalty, and the new ad campaign, prioritizing unit economics over short-term fixes. He attributed deceleration primarily to Wingstop's over-index to consumers under pressure, but emphasized the strategy to win a fair share of the core demand space, which is more demographically diverse, expecting future cycles to see the business in a stronger position.

Jeffrey Bernstein questioned the implied Q4 2025 comp decline, noting that the two-year stack appears to be slowing despite easing comparisons. He asked if Wingstop is surprised by the lack of inflection and how the company plans to aggressively re-engage lower-income and minority consumers. He also sought insight into the deceleration drivers, distinguishing between industry/consumer factors and any self-inflicted issues, and potential mitigation strategies for future choppiness.

Answer

President and CEO Michael Skipworth acknowledged near-term choppiness and stabilized trends in Q4, but emphasized focusing on long-term strategies like operationalizing the Wingstop Smart Kitchen, launching loyalty in 2026, and supporting growth with the new ad campaign, all while protecting unit economics. He attributed the deceleration primarily to Wingstop's over-indexation to consumers currently under pressure, but noted that the strategy to win a broader demand space should position the brand differently in future cycles.

Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays Capital questioned the significant increase in the 2025 unit growth forecast to 17-18%, asking if the long-term 10%+ target should be revised higher and what is driving the heightened franchisee demand. He also requested details on the upcoming loyalty program, including its structure and potential impact, given the company's previous hesitancy.

Answer

President and CEO Michael Skipworth attributed the accelerated development to powerful unit economics and strong international momentum, noting the pipeline of sold commitments is at a record high but did not revise the long-term 10%+ target. SVP & CFO Alex Kaleida added that the loyalty program, launching in 2026 after a Q4 pilot, will leverage their 60-million-person database to foster an emotional connection through unique rewards like merchandise and experiences, rather than just transactional discounts.

Jeffrey Bernstein questioned the revised 2025 same-store sales growth outlook of a precise 1%, down from a low-to-mid-single-digit range, seeking clarity on the underlying assumptions for Q2 and the second half given the heightened macro uncertainty. He also asked about franchisee sentiment and their focus amid accelerating unit growth.

Answer

CEO Michael Skipworth explained that the guidance reflects tough prior-year comparisons and a near-term consumer pullback concentrated in specific demographics, which feels similar to past temporary downturns. He emphasized that franchisee conversations are centered on growth, not comps, driven by AUVs increasing by $500,000 over two years and strong 70% cash-on-cash returns. Executive Alex Kaleida added that 50 different brand partners opened stores in Q1, showing broad-based development demand.

Jeffrey Bernstein questioned the revised 2025 same-store sales growth outlook of a precise 1%, a significant change from the prior low-to-mid-single-digit range, asking for color on Q2's expected decline and second-half assumptions. He also inquired about franchisee sentiment and the drivers for accelerating unit growth amid macro headwinds.

Answer

CEO Michael Skipworth attributed the revised comp guidance to extremely tough prior-year comparisons and a recent consumer pullback concentrated in specific demographics, which he noted feels temporary and similar to past cycles. Regarding franchisees, Skipworth explained their focus is on unit growth, not comps, driven by a $500,000 AUV increase over two years and predictable food costs, which have bolstered cash-on-cash returns to 70%. CFO Alex Kaleida added that the broad-based development, with 50 different partners opening stores in Q1, underscores this confidence.

Asked about Wingstop's value perception and communication strategy amidst heavy QSR value promotions, and whether the mid-teens unit growth rate is the new normal given the expanded development pipeline.

Answer

Wingstop defines value as a combination of quality and price, not just a low price point, and its brand health scores are at record highs. The strong unit growth guidance for 2025 is supported by a record development pipeline and robust franchisee economics, but the company is not updating its long-term guidance beyond 2025 at this time.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked about the implied fourth-quarter same-store sales deceleration based on the full-year guidance, questioning the potential drivers. He also inquired about the sustainability of the accelerated mid-teens unit growth into 2025, given the strong franchisee demand.

Answer

CEO Michael Skipworth responded that the company manages for the long term, not a single quarter, and highlighted that Q4 will be lapping over 20% growth, making the two-year stack of over 30% remarkable. Regarding unit growth, he confirmed a record development pipeline fueled by strong unit economics but emphasized a focus on "responsible and sustainable growth" without committing to a specific 2025 growth rate.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked CFO Ranjith Roy about his perspective on G&A spend, currently 1.7% of system sales, and opportunities to either invest more or curtail spending elsewhere. He also inquired if the long-term core operating profit growth target of 8% remains reasonable for 2026.

Answer

CFO Ranjith Roy noted that G&A growth has been minimal and disciplined over the past two years, with the company on track for mid-single-digit G&A growth this year, including incentive comp resets. He stated that discipline on G&A would continue, even while making growth investments, and that more guidance would be provided after the strategic review process plays out. CEO Chris Turner reinforced the company's focus on growth, powered by KFC and Taco Bell, aiming to continuously raise the bar on brand relevance, franchisee unit economics, and technology deployment, all underpinned by strong talent and partners.

Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays asked CFO Ranjith Roy about his perspective on Yum! Brands' G&A spend, currently at 1.7% of system sales, and opportunities for strategic investments versus curtailments. He also inquired if the long-term core operating profit growth target of 8% remains reasonable for 2026.

Answer

CFO Ranjith Roy highlighted the company's disciplined G&A management, noting minimal growth over the past two years and a projected mid-single-digit growth for the current year, including incentive compensation resets. He affirmed that the discipline on G&A would continue, even while making strategic investments for growth, and stated that more guidance would follow after the strategic review process concludes.

Jeffrey Bernstein sought initial insights or 'guardrails' for fiscal year 2026 and longer-term top and bottom-line performance, especially regarding modest positive comps and associated profitability. He also asked for any ballpark range or key buckets for potential cost savings.

Answer

Cathy Smith, EVP and CFO, stated that detailed fiscal year 2026 and longer-term guidance would be provided at the investor day in January. She reiterated the expectation for top-line growth, led by transactions, with earnings lagging initially. She emphasized ongoing actions to ensure every transaction is more profitable going forward.

Jeffrey Bernstein sought initial insights or guardrails for fiscal year 2026 and longer-term top and bottom-line outlook, particularly regarding comp growth and profitability, and any ballpark figures or key buckets for potential cost savings.

Answer

Cathy Smith, EVP and CFO, Starbucks, stated that detailed fiscal year 2026 and longer-term guidance will be provided at the investor day in late January. She expressed optimism for continued top-line growth driven by transactions, noting that earnings will lag as the company focuses on making every transaction more profitable. She reiterated that the company is taking actions to manage costs within its control.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays Capital asked what management perceives as the greatest challenge to returning to outsized U.S. comp growth, citing competition, store penetration, and value perception.

Answer

CEO Brian Niccol identified brand value as the most critical factor, noting he was delighted that value perception is at a two-year high. He positioned the Green Apron service model as a foundational element for building further value. He stated that the best way to compete is to be the 'best form of yourself,' which for Starbucks means world-class customer service, barista connection, and craft, allowing the brand to play offense in any competitive environment.

Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays Capital asked what management perceives as the greatest challenge to returning to outsized U.S. comp growth, citing competition, store penetration, and value perception.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Brian Niccol identified brand value as the most critical factor, noting that value perception is already at a two-year high. He stated the best way to compete is to perfect the core Starbucks experience: world-class customer service, barista connection, and beverage craft in a welcoming 'third place.' He believes this makes the brand uniquely valuable and allows it to 'play offense' in any competitive environment.

Jeffrey Bernstein directed a question to the new CFO, Cathy Smith, about her focus on Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), a metric not typically emphasized by Starbucks, and how this framework will influence future decisions.

Answer

Cathy Smith, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, affirmed her focus on delivering durable growth and strong ROIC for shareholders. She acknowledged that while store returns are good, they are below historical standards and can be improved. She plans to use tools like zero-based budgeting to find cost efficiencies that can fund strategic investments, ultimately driving both growth and returns.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays sought clarification on the comment about potentially doubling the U.S. store count, asking about the appropriate growth rate, the basis for this total addressable market (TAM) estimate, and which geographies or store types offer the most opportunity.

Answer

CEO Brian Niccol explained that the confidence in doubling the store count comes from the ability to execute smaller formats that still offer a great experience, opening up new trade areas. He highlighted strong performance in regions like Texas and the Southeast, where new stores open with great economics. He believes the brand's flexibility in format and access points, combined with solving mobile ordering, supports this significant growth potential.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked for key learnings from CEO Brian Niccol's initial meetings with baristas, focusing on their top requests, the greatest operational opportunities, and potential parallels to successful initiatives implemented at Chipotle.

Answer

CEO Brian Niccol shared that baristas are passionate about crafting espresso drinks and provided key feedback: reinstate condiment bars to improve speed, optimize staffing during peak and shoulder hours, and restore the welcoming 'coffee house' feel. Niccol noted that a core similarity to his time at Chipotle is the highly committed employee base, which is foundational for a successful turnaround.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked if Chili's is seeing any evidence of a broader consumer slowdown in discretionary spending, despite strong comps, and sought clarification on the rationale for the updated flat to slightly positive restaurant margin guidance for FY2026, especially after Q1's strong expansion.

Answer

Kevin Hochman, President and CEO of Brinker International, stated Chili's has not felt a slowdown, with the under-$60,000 income cohort growing fastest, attributing strength to consistent value positioning and experience. Mika Ware, EVP and CFO, reiterated that Q2 will face the most margin pressure due to Maggiano's impact and timing of Chili's expenses, with Q3 and Q4 potentially seeing incremental pressure depending on Maggiano's recovery, leading to the revised flat to slightly positive full-year margin outlook.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked if Chili's is seeing any evidence of a slowdown in discretionary spending, despite strong comps, and about the restaurant margin outlook for the remaining quarters (Q3, Q4) given Q1 expansion and Q2 pressure, and its implications for future margin expansion.

Answer

CEO Kevin Hochman stated that Chili's has not felt a slowdown, with households earning under $60,000 growing fastest, attributing this to strong value positioning, consistent experience, and sustained messaging. CFO Mika Ware reiterated that Q2 will face the most margin pressure. She noted that Q3 and Q4 could be tougher, potentially flat to slightly positive, depending on Maggiano's recovery and the timing of expenses.

Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays questioned the confidence in achieving positive comps each quarter of fiscal 2026 given the tough comparisons, and asked how the company balances profit flow-through versus reinvesting in the business.

Answer

CEO Kevin Hochman and CFO Mika Ware expressed strong confidence in delivering positive same-store sales each quarter, supported by robust plans and continued momentum. Ware detailed that significant investments are already embedded in the guidance, including $12M for food quality and $17M for incremental labor at Chili's, demonstrating a continued commitment to reinvesting for long-term health while still expanding margins.

Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays questioned the full-year revenue guidance, which implies sustained high comps, and asked for monthly trends. He also sought details on the TurboChef oven conversion, including the number of units remaining and any quantifiable benefits like cost or speed.

Answer

CFO Mika Ware confirmed that the sales step-change seen in Q2 has been sustained into Q3, supporting the raised guidance. She noted mix will remain elevated in the mid-single digits. CEO Kevin Hochman stated that the majority of the system still needs the TurboChef conversion. While not sharing specific metrics, he emphasized the ovens cook faster and more evenly, save space, and are highly requested by operators to handle increased traffic. Mika Ware added that the investment cost is factored into the updated CapEx and EPS guidance.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked for more color on the new guests and increased frequency metrics, including any peer comparisons, and inquired about the long-term potential for restaurant margins beyond fiscal 2025.

Answer

CEO Kevin Hochman stated there are no peer benchmarks for their tokenized frequency data but confirmed growth across all income cohorts, with the improved guest experience driving repeat visits. Regarding long-term margins, he explained that the 'Invest to Grow' strategy leverages top-line growth for margin expansion, and he believes returning to mid-teens margins is 'well within range,' supported by increased pricing power.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked about the sequential comparable sales trends through Q3 and into October, inquiring if the company expects trends to stabilize or continue easing into Q4 2025. He also sought more granular insights into the 2026 commodity outlook, particularly regarding beef.

Answer

Matt Clark, EVP and CFO, noted Q3's first two periods were consistent, with some September choppiness, and reiterated an anticipated 1% lower traffic run rate for Q4, expecting predictability and stability. For 2026 commodities, he highlighted positive dairy trends, continued beef pressure (though a smaller component), and strong crop yields, estimating 1-2% commodity inflation with labor slightly above that.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked about the sequential comparable sales trends for core casual dining brands through the third quarter and into October, inquiring if a deceleration was ramping up and whether trends were assumed to stabilize or ease further for the remainder of 2025. He also sought more granular insights into the 2026 commodity and labor outlook, particularly regarding beef and other commodity categories.

Answer

Matt Clark, EVP and Chief Financial Officer, noted that Q3's first two periods were consistent, with some choppiness in September partly due to lapping rewards programs. He reiterated an anticipated 1% lower traffic run rate for Q4, but expressed confidence in managing the P&L, viewing current events as macro-based and not long-lived. For 2026 commodities, he indicated a broader range but felt positive about dairy and strong crop yields supporting chicken and other categories, expecting 1-2% commodity inflation, with labor slightly above that, despite beef likely remaining a pressure point.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays inquired about any noticeable changes in consumer behavior by income level or a shift toward value. He also asked if there were signs of pressure in international markets due to geopolitics or anti-American sentiment.

Answer

President David Gordon stated that the consumer base remains incredibly consistent, with no significant changes in ordering patterns, dessert sales, or alcohol consumption trends. He also reported that all international locations comped positive in Q1, indicating the brand continues to resonate globally despite geopolitical turmoil, with no signs of a consumer pullback.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked if the company has observed any recent changes in consumer behavior beyond weather impacts and questioned the company's ability to manage the high rate of unit growth for North Italia and Flower Child.

Answer

EVP and CFO Matt Clark stated that underlying comps remain steady and resilient, with no signs of changing consumer behavior in their data. President David Gordon expressed confidence in managing growth, citing years of investment in manager development, improved retention at North Italia, and robust infrastructure and real estate pipelines to support the expansion.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked about broader restaurant industry trends, noting easing trends and a weaker September and October, contrasting with Sysco's opposite direction. He sought drivers for the industry weakness by segment, geography, or income levels.

Answer

Kevin Hourican, Chair and CEO, confirmed that Q1 traffic was better than Q4, but September was softer than Q1, continuing into October. He identified QSR and large national chains as underperforming, while independents are performing better, which is positive for Sysco's profitability. He emphasized that Sysco's performance is driven by internal initiatives, leading to a widening positive delta against the overall market, and expressed confidence in Sysco's ability to take market share regardless of macro conditions.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked about broader restaurant industry trends, noting easing trends and a slowdown in September and October, contrasting with Sysco's opposite trajectory. He sought drivers for the industry weakness by segment, geography, or income levels. He also followed up on Sysco's confidence in delivering at least 100 basis points of sequential improvement in Q2 local volume, given the industry's volatility.

Answer

Kevin Hourican, Chair and CEO of Sysco, referenced Black Box data, indicating Q1 was better than Q4, but September was softer than Q1 and continued into October, with QSR and large national chains underperforming while independents performed better. He reiterated Sysco's counter-trend, with September being stronger than August and October stronger than September, attributing this to self-driven initiatives and market share opportunities. Regarding confidence in the +100 basis point Q2 improvement, Kevin cited being one-third through the quarter with strong October performance, workforce stability, and the increasing impact of new initiatives like AI 360 (which is less than 45 days old and showing correlation between usage and results) and Perks 2.0 (prioritizing profitable customers without additional cost). Kenny Cheung, CFO, added that the initiatives are within Sysco's control, select geographies are already meeting growth expectations, and Sysco's diversified portfolio (recession-resilient non-commercial, varied restaurant types, and international presence) enhances overall business stability.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays Capital asked about the sustainability of broader restaurant industry trends, sought clarification on the local case volume growth assumed in the 3-5% sales guidance, and inquired about Sysco's perspective on M&A and industry consolidation.

Answer

CEO Kevin Hourican stated that Sysco's growth will come from taking market share in a stable-to-slightly-down industry, driven by improved customer retention and new initiatives. He declined to speculate on M&A rumors. CFO Kenny Cheung detailed the sales guidance, noting it includes a ~50 basis point headwind from the Mexico divestiture, ~2% inflation, and 2-3% growth from volume and M&A combined.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays asked for clarification on whether the slowdown in local cases was self-inflicted and questioned the rationale behind the significant cut to FY25 EPS guidance relative to the smaller reduction in sales guidance.

Answer

CEO Kevin Hourican asserted that Sysco's Q3 local performance was consistent with the broader market decline and that he sees positive signs of market share gains starting in April. Regarding the guidance, he attributed the Q3 miss to the steep, unanticipated traffic drop in February, which made rapid cost-cutting difficult and increased operating expenses. CFO Kenny Cheung added that the miss was primarily volume-driven, with some impact from the timing of sourcing deals. They expressed confidence in the revised guide due to Q4 momentum and cost-saving initiatives.

Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays requested clarification on the case growth assumptions for the second half of the year versus the industry and questioned the recent easing in Sysco Brand sales as a percentage of total sales, given its value proposition.

Answer

CEO Kevin Hourican clarified that the company's guidance is not dependent on a macro recovery, thanks to self-help initiatives like the $100 million in savings. Regarding Sysco Brand, he attributed the moderation to improved fill rates from national brand suppliers, representing a normalization, and expressed long-term confidence in the brand's growth. CFO Kenny Cheung added that international local case growth remains strong.

Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays questioned the drivers of the expected acceleration in local case growth, given the organic decline in Q1, and asked about the overall confidence in the fiscal 2025 sales and EPS guidance.

Answer

CEO Kevin Hourican expressed strong confidence in the full-year guidance, citing a clear line of sight on three levers: volume growth driven by new hires and sales initiatives, gross margin improvement from strategic sourcing in the second half, and ongoing expense management. CFO Kenny Cheung reinforced this confidence, pointing to the strong exit rate in September, the ability to flex expenses, and the company's proven track record of managing dynamic environments, as demonstrated in the previous fiscal year.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked about Darden's confidence in raising its comp guidance despite macro concerns and tougher comparisons, and how fiscal Q2 performance is expected to align with the new full-year range. He also inquired about the potential for other brands to adopt first-party Uber delivery and updated thoughts on using Uber for order aggregation.

Answer

CEO Rick Cardenas expressed confidence in the raised guidance, citing strong unit development. CFO Raj Vennam noted that while Q2 started well, the back half of the year is still expected to have lower comps than the first half. CEO Rick Cardenas confirmed that another Darden brand is planning to embrace first-party delivery in Q3, but Darden remains focused on first-party delivery due to ongoing challenges with the third-party marketplace model.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked about Darden's confidence in raising its comp guidance despite macro concerns and tougher comparisons, and how the fiscal second quarter's comp performance is expected to align with the new full-year range. He also inquired about the potential for other Darden brands to adopt the 1P Uber delivery partnership and any updated thoughts on using Uber for order aggregation (3P marketplace).

Answer

Rick Cardenas, President and CEO, expressed confidence in the raised guidance due to strong unit count and development pipeline. Raj Vennam, CFO, noted that Q2 started well, but the back half of the year is still expected to have lower comps than the first half. Rick Cardenas confirmed that another brand is expected to join the 1P Uber delivery platform in Q3, but reiterated that Darden still has challenges with the 3P marketplace model.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked about Darden's confidence in raising its comparable sales guidance for fiscal year 2026 despite macro concerns and tougher comparisons, and how the fiscal second quarter is expected to perform relative to the new full-year range. He also inquired about the potential for other brands to adopt first-party Uber delivery and the possibility of using Uber for order aggregation.

Answer

Rick Cardenas, President, CEO & Director, expressed confidence in the raised guidance due to strong unit development, with approximately 65 new restaurants planned. Raj Vennam, SVP & CFO, noted that Q2 started well, but the back half of the year is still expected to have lower comparable sales growth than the first half. Rick Cardenas confirmed another brand will launch first-party delivery in Q3, but Darden remains focused on first-party due to challenges with the third-party marketplace model.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays Capital inquired about the increased confidence in using promotions and affordability initiatives at Olive Garden and how margins are protected. He also asked for Darden's perspective on the competitive discounting environment.

Answer

President & CEO Rick Cardenas clarified that their approach is not 'promotion crazy,' citing that the 'Buy One, Take One' offer was not a margin drag. The focus is on long-term affordability, such as adding lower-priced menu items based on successful tests. Regarding competition, he noted that Darden is prepared to react to any market conditions, as demonstrated by Olive Garden's successful performance.

Jeffrey Bernstein requested a broader perspective on why consumer spending at restaurants appears resilient despite falling consumer confidence. He also asked about the drivers behind the Fine Dining segment's strong performance.

Answer

President and CEO Ricardo Cardenas suggested that post-COVID, consumer sentiment and spending are less correlated, especially as incomes rise and dining out remains a primary 'treat.' He noted the main pullback is from the sub-$50k income group. CFO Raj Vennam added that while Fine Dining was strong during the holidays, they are now seeing more check management from consumers and are not yet ready to 'claim victory' on a full recovery.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked about the rationale for tightening the full-year comp guidance to 1.5%, its implications for Olive Garden and LongHorn, and the performance drivers within the Fine Dining segment, including any potential impact from GLP-1 drugs.

Answer

Executive Rajesh Vennam stated that tightening guidance reflects increased confidence. He agreed it's fair to assume Olive Garden and LongHorn would perform above the 1.5% average. Executive Ricardo Cardenas noted no specific brand is lagging in Fine Dining and acknowledged that GLP-1 drugs could be having an impact, which the company is monitoring.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked for an update on sales trends for Darden's brands beyond Olive Garden since the July slowdown and inquired about the potential causes of that industry-wide shock. He also sought more clarity on the nature of limited-time offers (LTOs) planned for the second half of the year and how they would balance competitiveness with brand health.

Answer

President and CEO Rick Cardenas confirmed that all Darden brands, not just Olive Garden, saw sales trends improve in August and September. He attributed the July weakness to a combination of factors including adverse weather, the Olympics, an uptick in COVID cases, and political volatility. Regarding LTOs, Cardenas reiterated that Darden will not return to deep-discounting. Instead, promotions will focus on highlighting value, like Cheddar's opportunity buys, and will adhere to the company's filters of being simple to execute and brand-accretive.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Silverberg Bernstein Capital Management, LLC asked for a detailed breakdown of the go-to-market strategy for the new gift card solution, focusing on the key players in the supply chain.

Answer

CEO Riley McCormack outlined the strategy, explaining that Digimarc will primarily sell through the concentrated gift card manufacturing industry to minimize workflow disruption. He emphasized the critical role of gift card networks like Blackhawk and Incom, which connect to both brands and retailers. McCormack also confirmed that their software needs to be active on retail point-of-sale scanners, a process facilitated by Digimarc's existing footprint in many major scanner systems.

Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays Capital asked how PFG is balancing its organic growth strategy on the West Coast against waiting for potential M&A, given the lack of significant deals. He also questioned why the fiscal Q1 guidance appeared to be below consensus expectations.

Answer

CEO George Holm confirmed PFG is currently 'betting on organic' for West Coast growth, supported by investments like a new redistribution facility. He also stated the company has no appetite for small 'fold-in' acquisitions. Regarding Q1 guidance, CFO Patrick Hatcher explained that the summer months are a seasonally slower period for the recently acquired Cheney and Santiago businesses. Holm added that Q1 results are also impacted by heavy investments in hiring salespeople and start-up costs for new Convenience contracts.

Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays asked about the company's process for developing a three-year forecast amid a dynamic environment and inquired about the M&A pipeline and whether current market dislocation is creating opportunities.

Answer

CEO George Holm stated that while the current environment is a factor, the long-term forecasting process remains consistent, relying heavily on input from field teams. CFO Patrick Hagerty noted they are on track to exceed their previous three-year plan. Regarding M&A, George Holm confirmed a 'nice pipeline' of smaller deals and stated that while debt paydown is a priority, the company remains opportunistic and has the capacity for acquisitions.

Jeffrey Bernstein sought clarification on management's confidence in an improving consumer outlook, asking for leading indicators. He also asked for the current leverage level and whether it would temper the appetite for further M&A, particularly regarding large opportunities.

Answer

CEO George Holm cited encouraging trends from late 2024, new national account wins, and a strong hiring pipeline as reasons for optimism. CFO Patrick Hatcher confirmed the current leverage is in the 'high 3s' and that debt reduction is a priority. However, Holm emphasized that while they are cautious, they would not pass up a transformative opportunity and have experience managing higher leverage.

Jeffrey Bernstein sought to reconcile the optimistic commentary on accelerating independent case growth with the stated 5-6% sales force growth. He also asked for the outlook on cash usage, leverage levels post-Cheney, and the share repurchase plan.

Answer

CEO George Holm clarified that Q1 organic independent case growth was 4.3%, and the recent 1-2 point acceleration brings it in line with the 5-6% sales force growth. CFO Patrick Hatcher stated that leverage is currently above the 3.5x target and will take "several quarters" to return to the target range. As a result, debt reduction is the near-term priority, and share repurchase activity will likely be lower, potentially not exhausting the current authorization this fiscal year.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays Capital asked for clarification on the July same-store sales decline and inquired about franchisee sentiment, their alignment on improving comps, and their willingness to be more aggressive on value.

Answer

Interim CEO & CFO Ken Cook confirmed that July U.S. same-restaurant sales were down 5-6%. He stated that while franchisee relationships are good, the goal is to make them great by improving communication and prioritization, a concept he calls 'One Wendy's.' Regarding value, Cook emphasized leveraging new data analytics for more targeted digital offers rather than broad promotions, while highlighting the existing strength of the Biggie Bag and the opportunity to better communicate Wendy's quality story.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked about the significant reduction in the 2025 guidance after just one quarter, questioning why the quick-service restaurant (QSR) sector isn't proving more defensive and whether Wendy's current value platform is adequate for the challenging macro environment.

Answer

Kirk Tanner, President and CEO, acknowledged that the consumer is under pressure, leading to a prudent revision of the full-year outlook. He expressed confidence in the company's '100 days of summer' program, which he described as a balanced approach combining core menu innovation, compelling value, and traffic-driving cultural collaborations like the upcoming partnership with Takis. Tanner stated that while QSR has a right to win in this environment, Wendy's is focused on its own initiatives to attract customers and deliver a great experience.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays asked for clarification on how the adjusted EBITDA guidance was maintained despite a sales shortfall and sought more detail on the 2025 unit growth outlook, including the number of closures and franchisee receptivity.

Answer

CFO Gunther Plosch explained that the EBITDA guidance was held steady because the sales headwind was offset by increased franchise fees from restaurant closures and slightly lower G&A expenses. He clarified that about 140 additional units are closing, making 2024 net unit growth roughly flat, which builds confidence for the accelerated 3-4% growth target in 2025.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays Capital asked about the company's confidence in returning to a 20% restaurant margin and whether increased scrutiny on new unit development could lead to growth below the 15-20% target next year.

Answer

CFO Mitch Reback expressed confidence that margins will expand over the next several years, driven by improved operations, sales growth, and the Infinite Kitchen rollout. Co-Founder, CEO & Director Jonathan Neman added that while the 2026 pipeline is being carefully vetted with a focus on lower build-out costs and smaller footprints, he believes the long-term 15-20% growth algorithm is achievable, with more details to come in future quarters.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays Capital questioned the company's confidence in further accelerating independent case growth from the current 3% level, given its volatility. He also asked about the optimal balance between the chain and independent restaurant business and the margin profile of new chain accounts.

Answer

CEO Dave Flitman expressed confidence in continued independent growth acceleration, citing the strong pipeline of new customer onboardings and consistent market share gains. Regarding the business mix, he reiterated that the chain business strategy remains an 'optimization play' to provide important operational baseload, not a primary area for growth investment, with a continued focus on improving its margin profile.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked about the consistent improvement in business trends since February despite a weak macro environment, questioning if the recovery was surprising. He also inquired about the balance between business investments and share repurchases, given the new $1 billion authorization.

Answer

CEO Dave Flitman and CFO Dirk Locascio attributed the recovery to the resilience of the 'food away from home' trend and, crucially, their own execution on generating new accounts. On capital allocation, Locascio stressed they are not shortchanging the business, citing stepped-up CapEx for capacity and technology. He positioned the large share repurchase program as a function of the company's strong cash flow, which allows for both robust investment and shareholder returns.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays questioned the assumption of a stronger macro backdrop in 2025 and the confidence in the industry returning to 2% positive traffic. He also asked about the key drivers behind the accelerated independent customer gains in late 2024 and early 2025.

Answer

CFO Dirk Locascio cited sources like Technomic forecasting improvement and noted that the company's strategy is centered on controllable factors like market share gains, regardless of the macro environment. CEO David Flitman attributed the acceleration in customer gains to consistent execution of their playbook, targeted growth using data, and the maturation of newly hired sellers, emphasizing there is plenty of volume to capture irrespective of the macro conditions.

Jeffrey Bernstein sought clarification on the primary reasons for the reduction in the full-year total case growth guidance and asked about any significant new business wins or losses.

Answer

CFO Dirk Locascio explained the guidance adjustment was a result of both the financial impact from recent hurricanes and a macro traffic environment that remained softer for longer than anticipated in Q3. He stressed that despite this, the company gained market share and maintains a robust new business pipeline across its target segments for 2025.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays Capital asked what factors are preventing an acceleration of new unit growth beyond the guided 160 openings for the year, given the strong performance, ample operator pipeline, and lower build-out costs.

Answer

CEO Christine Barone responded that the company is in a great position to continue accelerating growth due to foundational steps taken over the past two years. She highlighted the success of their refined market planning (leading to higher AUVs), a shift to more capital-efficient builds (lowering CapEx), and effective marketing plans for new openings. The current pace reflects this deliberate, successful strategy, positioning them well to achieve their long-term goals.

Jeffrey Bernstein posed a macro question, asking why Dutch Bros. is thriving in a dynamic environment when its younger, value-focused consumer base might be considered vulnerable. He also asked for more details on the company's CPG channel strategy.

Answer

CEO Christine Barone attributed the company's resilience to its strong value proposition, brand resonance, and multiple, early-stage growth drivers like mobile order and future food rollouts. Regarding CPG, she described it as a longer-term, brand-building opportunity through a 'light touch' licensing deal that targets a separate purchasing occasion.

Jeffrey Bernstein inquired about the 2025 unit development mix between new and existing markets, the strategy in Florida versus Texas, the cadence of the expected coffee cost headwind, and the rationale for not taking more pricing to offset it.

Answer

CEO Christine Barone noted that while they are entering new markets like Florida, much of the growth is still infill, and learnings from Texas are being applied to the pacing of new market entry. CFO Josh Guenser detailed the coffee headwind would be about 150 basis points to adjusted EBITDA margin, assuming costs remain elevated. He and Christine Barone explained the decision to limit pricing is to protect their strong customer value proposition, viewing the cost spike as likely temporary rather than structural.

Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays asked about the potential for unit growth to exceed the stated 160-shop floor for 2025 and inquired about consumer feedback and franchisee sentiment regarding the new food tests.

Answer

CEO Christine Barone confirmed that 160 openings is the floor for 2025, with the strong operator pipeline enabling, not limiting, growth. She noted openings will occur in both new and existing markets. Regarding food, she stated that initial consumer feedback has been enthusiastic and, importantly, that franchisees are 'quite eager and excited' about the potential food program.

Pradek, on behalf of Jeff Bernstein from Barclays, asked for a big-picture view of the Outback turnaround, seeking prioritization of the biggest near-term opportunities and an assessment of the current stage of the process.

Answer

CEO Mike Spanos stated that the company is in the "early innings" of the turnaround, emphasizing it will take time. He prioritized improving the core value equation for guests, which involves a focus on the service model, steak quality, and value components, all of which are undergoing testing.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays questioned underlying consumer spending behavior, the traffic and pricing components of 2025 guidance, and the alignment between management, the Board, and activist investors on strategic priorities.

Answer

CEO Mike Spanos described the consumer as 'choosy,' noting some check management from households under $100k, which is factored into guidance. For Q1, he projected traffic between -4% and -5% with ~4% pricing. Spanos emphasized that the Board and activist investor Starboard are 'fully aligned' and working collaboratively with the management team to drive sales and profit.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked about new CEO Mike Spanos's initial assessment of Outback Steakhouse's operational shortcomings, any low-hanging fruit for improvement, and the broader strategy for the brand portfolio, including Carrabba's and Bonefish, especially in light of activist investor involvement.

Answer

CEO Mike Spanos acknowledged Outback's declining traffic and market share, stating his personal commitment to improving the guest experience through operational excellence and menu simplification. He emphasized that the decision to form a partnership for the Brazil operations was separate from the domestic portfolio strategy. Spanos confirmed commitment to the domestic brands, highlighting Carrabba's as a scaled growth opportunity and Bonefish's focus on its fresh seafood and bar experience. He described the relationship with activist investor Starboard as collaborative and focused on enhancing the guest experience.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays Capital questioned the duration of the negative check mix from value offerings, marketing plans for the tough Q4 comparison, and the timeline for reaccelerating new unit growth under its refined criteria.

Answer

CEO & President Lyle Tick attributed the negative mix to both the Pizookie Meal Deal and growth in lower-check channels like late-night and off-premise, expecting it to moderate in the back half as they lap the deal's launch. For Q4, plans include reinforcing the meal deal and launching strategic platforms like the new pizza and a 22-ounce beer pour. Regarding development, Tick projected the first new units under the refined criteria would open in late 2026 and into 2027, focusing on building out from core markets.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays questioned what data indicates a challenging macro environment, given the lack of change in consumer behavior, and asked about the long-term unit growth opportunity.

Answer

President Lyle Tick noted that while there's a slight increase in Pizookie Meal Deal uptake, it's offset by broad traffic gains across all income cohorts and dayparts, with no fundamental shifts in guest behavior. CFO Tom Houdek added that negative mix was partly due to lapping higher checks from the prior year. On unit growth, Interim CEO Brad Richmond affirmed the long-term opportunity but stated new openings are realistically a late 2026 event due to long lead times, emphasizing the current focus on improving existing box economics.

Jeffrey Bernstein questioned the rationale for continuing new unit growth given inconsistent returns, suggesting a halt in favor of share repurchases. He also asked for the components of the Q3 comp, the pricing outlook, and an update on the CEO search.

Answer

Interim CEO Brad Richmond responded that the company generates significant cash flow to support remodels, a deliberate pace of new units, and a structured share repurchase program. He also suggested that taking on a modest amount of debt could be appropriate to enhance shareholder returns. CFO Tom Houdek detailed the Q3 comp as +1.3% traffic and +0.4% check, with low-3% pricing offset by negative mix from promotions and off-premise. Regarding the CEO search, Richmond noted the board is taking necessary steps and highlighted the recent addition of Lyle Tick as President.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked how Shake Shack balances its ambitious product innovation pipeline with back-of-house complexity to protect service speed. He also inquired if the underlying business is seeing continued consumer strength or the choppiness others reported in July.

Answer

CEO Rob Lynch explained that the company's made-to-order model has inherent flexibility and that all new items are operationally vetted before launch to prevent disruption. Regarding consumer health, he stated that Shake Shack has seen consistent sequential traffic improvement and strong demand for premium items like the $10 Dubai Shake, giving them confidence in their guest's resilience.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays asked for more context on the 3-year restaurant margin guidance of 'at least 22%', noting it implies no improvement beyond 2025 and seeking clarity on the potential for upside.

Answer

CEO Rob Lynch explained that the 'at least 22%' guide is a baseline representing what they can execute today, acknowledging they have numerous initiatives aimed at continuous improvement. However, he noted they are also planning for potential headwinds like commodity volatility. CFO Katie Fogertey added that the outlook assumes a normalized, modest pricing environment, relying on operational efficiencies rather than significant price hikes for margin expansion.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays asked for a range of restaurant margin performance across the system and whether Shake Shack would consider bundling to communicate value against QSR.

Answer

CFO Katherine Fogertey did not provide a range but reiterated the focus on efficiency strategies in cost of goods and labor to drive profitability. CEO Rob Lynch stated that while Shake Shack does not do national $5 bundles, it uses targeted digital promotions to deliver value surgically. The primary focus remains on improving the experience (the 'numerator') through quality and service.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked for more color on the weakness in the defense (Puff) business versus the recovery in the distribution channel. He also inquired about the market opportunity for replacing rare earth magnets with ferrite magnets, the timeline for design wins, the investment in wafer-level chip-scale packaging, and the company's strategy for monetizing its spin-orbit torque RAM (SOT-RAM) intellectual property.

Answer

President & CEO Daniel A. Baker explained that the defense business is lumpy due to large procurement cycles but is expected to see sequential growth and return to historical levels. He noted the recovery in distributor sales is encouraging for the broader industry. Regarding ferrite magnets, Baker highlighted the supply chain advantages over Chinese-sourced rare earth magnets and stated NVE is actively working with customers on near-term design wins. For wafer-level packaging, he confirmed the investment enables smaller, more precise sensors for which the company is already providing samples. On MRAM IP, Baker clarified NVE's model is to partner with large-scale manufacturers to monetize its patents rather than build its own multi-billion dollar fabs.

Jeffrey Bernstein inquired about the performance of NVE's direct business versus its distribution channels, seeking clarity on end-customer demand, inventory levels, and booking trends. He also asked for updates on key end markets, including hearing aids, the defense-related 'pulp' business, and the broader medical device sector, referencing recent reports from Abbott. Finally, he questioned the recent increase in selling expenses and staff additions.

Answer

President and CEO Daniel Baker explained that direct sales have remained strong, contributing to high gross margins as distributor channel inventory is reduced. He expressed optimism about improving industry conditions and confirmed that end-user consumption is likely outpacing sales into the channel. Baker noted that NVE's sensors are crucial for new AI-driven features in hearing aids and that the defense business remains solid with recent orders. Regarding medical devices, he highlighted Abbott's encouraging growth and NVE's role in enabling smaller, advanced devices. The increase in SG&A was attributed to expanded direct sales efforts, including more trade shows, marketing, and additional sales staff.

Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays Capital asked if any self-inflicted issues contributed to the recent comp slowdown and questioned the path to margin expansion if comps remain in the low-single-digit range.

Answer

CEO Scott Boatwright asserted that after extensive internal review, there is 'no smoking gun' indicating a self-inflicted problem, attributing the slowdown to the macro environment. CFO Adam Rymer reiterated the 40% flow-through model and expressed confidence in margin expansion, noting that cost initiatives are expected to offset headwinds like tariffs, allowing transaction growth to drive margin improvement.

Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays Capital requested more color on the aggregator and rewards programs, asking if the DoorDash ramp would be similar to Uber's and if any metrics on rewards members or frequency could be shared.

Answer

CEO Russell Weiner reiterated that DoorDash's main impact is expected in the second half and that it's a larger platform than Uber. Regarding the rewards program, he explained that it complements the aggregator strategy by targeting value-conscious, lighter users. He noted an interesting dynamic where lower-point redemptions for side items are actually driving a higher average ticket on those orders compared to redemptions for free pizzas.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked if the pizza category is experiencing fatigue or just macro pressure, given Domino's market share gains despite negative U.S. comps, and whether share gains can continue if led by unit growth.

Answer

Chief Executive Officer Russell Weiner rejected the 'pizza fatigue' notion, stating the category consistently grows 1-2% annually. He asserted that Domino's, with just under 25% share, has significant runway for growth, especially against smaller competitors who cannot match its value proposition long-term. Chief Financial Officer Sandeep Reddy noted that Domino's 1.3% retail sales growth in a flat category demonstrates clear share gains.

Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays questioned Domino's "renowned value" positioning, asking how it withstands the higher cost of delivery (with fees and tips) and the aggressive push of $5 meal deals from broader QSR competitors.

Answer

CEO Russell Weiner positioned value as relative. While delivery is more expensive than Domino's own carryout, he argued that on a delivery-to-delivery basis, Domino's remains very competitive, especially for feeding a family. The pressure on delivery is more a comparison to carryout and eating at home.

Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays asked about Domino's ability to influence its international master franchisees to adopt the three key value-focused initiatives. He also sought clarification on the 2025 unit growth outlook and whether it is expected to be higher than the revised 2024 guidance.

Answer

CEO Russell Weiner explained that influence comes from demonstrating success, noting that the U.S. results under the 'Hungry for MORE' strategy are proving the model works, which encourages international partners to adopt similar tactics over time. He cited India and Mexico as examples already leaning into value. CFO Sandeep Reddy stated that the company was not providing a specific 2025 store outlook at this time but would offer more visibility in February.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked for clarification on the potential impact of recently announced tariffs from Japan, the outlook for achieving 20%+ restaurant-level margins, and the drivers behind the improved G&A expense guidance.

Answer

CFO Jeff Uttz stated that while a monetary impact from new tariffs is not yet calculated, about 45% of their basket comes from Japan, Korea, and Vietnam. He noted suppliers have been willing to share the cost burden and that pricing is a last resort. SVP Benjamin Porten expressed confidence in returning to 20%+ margins in fiscal 2026, citing a strong IP campaign calendar and a full year of the reservation system. Uttz attributed G&A leverage primarily to disciplined headcount management rather than just adding staff, expecting further, albeit potentially smaller, leverage next year.

Jeffrey Bernstein asked whether the quarter's weakness was solely due to weather or if it masked an underlying consumer slowdown, and also inquired about the potential cost impact from recently announced tariffs on the company's supply chain.

Answer

Hajime Uba, through interpreter Benjamin Porten, attributed the Q2 weakness to lapping a strong IP campaign and weather, not a consumer slowdown, citing strong March performance. He noted that recent uncertainty stems from tariff news impacting consumer confidence. CFO Jeff Uttz added that it's too early to quantify the tariff cost impact but noted that key suppliers and countries of origin (Japan, Vietnam) have shown a willingness to negotiate and share the burden.

An analyst from Barclays asked for clarification on the full-year comparable sales outlook, particularly the trajectory for Q2 versus the second half, and inquired about the inflation outlook for food and labor, as well as the progress of labor-saving initiatives.

Answer

Hajime Uba, via interpreter Benjamin Porten, confirmed that the lack of an IP collaboration makes Q2 a tougher comparison, but this was factored into the full-year guidance, with a focus on profitability. Jeff Uttz added that while they expect positive full-year comps, the strong Q1 start means the previous pattern of sequential quarterly improvement may not hold. Benjamin Porten noted unexpectedly high single-digit wage inflation but still expects full-year labor leverage from initiatives. Jeff Uttz stated that COGS were deflationary and should remain stable or improve.

An analyst on behalf of Jeff Bernstein questioned why the new unit development outlook for fiscal 2025 is capped at 14 stores given the strong pipeline. He also asked about the expected level of commodity inflation for fiscal 2025 and the company's ability to pivot its menu, as well as the normalized rate of labor inflation going forward.

Answer

Executive Benjamin Porten explained that the 14-unit forecast is not due to permitting or construction issues but is a result of strategically pruning some LOIs to manage cannibalization headwinds. CFO Jeff Uttz stated that the budget assumes low single-digit commodity inflation and highlighted the company's ability to pivot its menu and leverage its dual broad-line distributors for supply chain redundancy. CEO Hajime Uba, via interpreter, added that while fiscal '24 labor inflation was mid-single digits, operational improvements should ensure the fiscal '25 labor line is superior to fiscal '24.

Jeffrey Bernstein of Barclays requested a prioritized breakdown of the drivers behind the ~$10 million reduction in the 2025 EBITDA guidance and asked about observed changes in consumer behavior and the key drivers of confidence in a positive traffic outlook.

Answer

CFO Mel Hope identified sustained commodity inflation and the impact of new tariffs as the primary drivers for the lowered guidance. CEO Chris Tomasso noted the unprecedented pressure on four of the top five commodities. Tomasso also stated that they are not seeing signs of check management from their 'healthy customer' and that confidence stems from positive sequential traffic trends.

Jeffrey Bernstein inquired about current comparable sales trends, questioning if a broader macroeconomic slowdown was being masked by transitory factors, and sought details on the planned 2025 marketing spend increase, its strategy, and expected returns.

Answer

CFO Mel Hope responded that traffic trends have been improving sequentially from Q3 2024 through Q1 2025 to-date. Regarding marketing, he confirmed a significant step-up in spending for 2025, based on successful 2024 tests, is fully incorporated into the company's financial guidance and is a key driver of their positive outlook.

Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays asked for management's perspective on the drivers of softness in the morning daypart and whether recent comp trend improvements seen across the industry in September and October were also experienced by First Watch.

Answer

CEO Chris Tomasso attributed the morning daypart softness to the macro environment, where breakfast is an occasion easily replaced at home, but noted First Watch continues to gain market share. He confirmed that First Watch also saw improved trends in its dining room and direct off-premise channels through the end of the quarter.

An analyst on behalf of Jeffrey Bernstein asked why the brands' value messaging is struggling to break through and what near-term tweaks are planned. They also inquired about the 2025 net unit growth outlook and if the company would consider opening corporate stores to spur development.

Answer

CEO John Peyton, IHOP President Jay Johns, and Applebee's President Tony Moralejo detailed a strategic shift from temporary LTOs to more stable value platforms, like IHOP's new 'House Faves' menu. For development, Peyton highlighted progress on a lower-cost Applebee's prototype and the significant growth potential from dual-branded locations, which are expected to begin opening domestically in Q1 2025.