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    Jeffrey Farmer

    Research Analyst at Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

    Jeffrey Farmer is Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Gordon Haskett Research Advisors, specializing in equity research for the restaurant sector. He covers major publicly traded restaurant chains and is recognized for rigorous valuation frameworks, sector-wide return on invested capital (ROIC) analysis, and data-driven thematic research, utilizing proprietary credit card and geolocation data to distinguish his work. Farmer began his equity analyst career over 20 years ago, holding senior research roles covering restaurants at Wells Fargo Securities, Jefferies Group, and CIBC World Markets, before joining Gordon Haskett in 2018. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation, a BS from Villanova University, and an MBA from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.

    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to Dutch Bros (BROS) leadership

    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to Dutch Bros (BROS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer asked if the company's guidance, which trends toward the high end of the range, already accounts for a potentially uncertain consumer environment. He also inquired about the expected impact of the large class of Texas shops entering the comparable store base in 2025.

    Answer

    CFO Josh Guenser confirmed that while they are not currently seeing a negative impact on their customers, they are mindful of the broader macro environment and have factored that into their guidance. On the Texas shops, he spoke broadly, confirming that newer market vintages show outsized performance due to marketing, mobile order adoption, and maturation, which contributes to overall strength.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to Dutch Bros (BROS) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer asked about the biggest upside surprises that drove the strong 6.9% Q4 comp result, which significantly exceeded the company's low-single-digit guidance.

    Answer

    CEO Christine Barone identified several key factors for the outperformance. She highlighted stronger-than-expected transaction growth of 2.3%, driven by mobile order, paid ads, and successful holiday promotions. Additionally, the strong sales momentum allowed the company to pull back on discounting, which contributed over a point to the comp. Finally, she noted that new shops entering the comp base performed at the high end of expectations.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to Dutch Bros (BROS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer of Gordon Haskett asked for a comparison of sales trends between rewards and non-rewards customers and inquired about consumer strength in California compared to other regions.

    Answer

    CFO Josh Guenser stated that the company does not disclose sales performance segmented by rewards status but highlighted the program's record growth of 1 million sign-ups in Q3. CEO Christine Barone reported that they are 'quite pleased' with performance in California, noting strong growth from new shops and continued brand resonance, with California containing some of the system's highest-volume locations.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to BRINKER INTERNATIONAL (EAT) leadership

    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to BRINKER INTERNATIONAL (EAT) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer asked about the company's ability to either hold or grow restaurant-level margins moving into fiscal year 2026.

    Answer

    CFO Mika Ware expressed confidence that restaurant margins would be maintained or continue to grow. She cited key drivers including maintaining pricing power through business investments, achieving labor productivity as teams gain tenure with higher traffic, and leveraging fixed costs as average unit volumes (AUVs) increase.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to BRINKER INTERNATIONAL (EAT) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer of Gordon Haskett Research Advisors inquired about the company's capital allocation priorities for its increased free cash flow and asked for details on how it monitors the influx of new guests.

    Answer

    CFO Mika Ware reiterated the capital allocation strategy: first, reinvest in the business; second, pay down debt; and third, return excess cash to shareholders via methods like share repurchases. CEO Kevin Hochman explained that new guest monitoring is done via tokenized data from customer transactions, which allows them to distinguish new customers from those who have visited in the last 12-24 months. This data confirms that growth is driven by both new guests and increased frequency.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to BRINKER INTERNATIONAL (EAT) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer inquired about the updated outlook for full-year restaurant-level margins and the planned number of TV advertising weeks for fiscal 2025 compared to 2024.

    Answer

    CFO Mika Ware projected that full-year restaurant-level margins would be approximately 100 basis points or more favorable year-over-year. CEO Kevin Hochman and CFO Mika Ware clarified that fiscal 2025 includes 31 weeks of TV advertising, an incremental 4 weeks over the prior year, with advertising spend expected to ramp up by $3-4 million in Q2 and Q3, and by about $7 million in Q4.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to Shake Shack (SHAK) leadership

    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to Shake Shack (SHAK) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer from Gordon Haskett followed up on the combo meal LTO, asking for specifics on customer response and key learnings from the test.

    Answer

    CEO Robert Lynch shared that while not disclosing specific mix details, the combo test led to improved order times, accuracy, and guest satisfaction. A key learning was that menu design, such as placing the double burger combo first, successfully shifted mix to more premium, profit-accretive items. This shows combos can be used to drive profitable mix and attachment, not just offer discounts.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to DOMINOS PIZZA (DPZ) leadership

    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to DOMINOS PIZZA (DPZ) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer asked about Domino's exposure to lower-income and Hispanic customers and inquired about the relative same-store sales performance of those demographics during the quarter.

    Answer

    Chief Executive Officer Russell Weiner characterized the lower-income consumer as a core demographic for the entire QSR industry. He noted the current pressure leads this group to skip occasions rather than switch brands. He emphasized Domino's is well-positioned to offer sustained value and gain share in this environment due to its scale and franchisee profitability.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to DOMINOS PIZZA (DPZ) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer of Gordon Haskett asked if Domino's is observing the same trend as its peers, where demand headwinds are expanding beyond the lower-income cohort.

    Answer

    CEO Russell Weiner noted that for Domino's, the pressure across income cohorts is primarily seen in 1P delivery. He discussed a broader QSR dynamic of 'up-switching,' where a narrowing price gap between QSR and fast-casual might lead some consumers to trade up, but emphasized Domino's strength in offering valued items.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to DOMINOS PIZZA (DPZ) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer from Gordon Haskett Research Advisors asked if Domino's expects the competitive promotional and value-oriented environment in the U.S. to intensify further through the rest of 2024 and into 2025, or if the current level represents the peak.

    Answer

    CEO Russell Weiner characterized the current environment as the 'pizza wars' and stated that Domino's is 'clearly winning.' He believes that for competitors to keep up, they will have to continue leaning into value. While he doesn't know their specific plans, he is confident in Domino's own strategy and suggested that if competitors want to match Domino's, they will need to maintain their promotional intensity.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to DARDEN RESTAURANTS (DRI) leadership

    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to DARDEN RESTAURANTS (DRI) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer asked for an interpretation of the significant divergence between the average and median same-store sales in the industry. He also questioned what is driving the surprising demand resilience of the casual dining consumer.

    Answer

    CFO Raj Vennam explained that the divergence in industry data is caused by one or two outlier brands, as the benchmark provided excludes Darden. President and CEO Ricardo Cardenas suggested consumer resilience may be a post-COVID behavioral shift, with consumers prioritizing dining experiences. He also noted that rising incomes and moderating costs for essentials could be freeing up disposable income for dining out.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to DARDEN RESTAURANTS (DRI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer inquired about the income demographic that typically responds to the Never Ending Pasta Bowl promotion and whether it's providing a lift with lower-income consumers. He also asked if the lack of a small-party delivery option could have contributed to Olive Garden's recent narrowing of its market share outperformance.

    Answer

    CFO Raj Vennam explained that Never Ending Pasta Bowl appeals broadly across income levels, including consumers up to the $150,000 income bracket, and is effective at attracting new and infrequent guests. President and CEO Rick Cardenas pushed back on the 'diminished market share' premise, noting the recent quarter was the only time in five years Olive Garden's traffic trailed the industry. While conceding delivery could be a factor, he did not see it as the primary reason for the single quarter of underperformance.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to CRACKER BARREL OLD COUNTRY STORE (CBRL) leadership

    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to CRACKER BARREL OLD COUNTRY STORE (CBRL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer inquired about the same-store sales outlook for the second half of fiscal 2025 given consumer anxiety, and how this sentiment is manifesting across different income and age demographics.

    Answer

    CFO Craig Pommells acknowledged that Q3 may be pressured by consumer challenges but noted recent trends have improved and Q4 initiatives should help. He highlighted gains with the over-55 age cohort and relatively similar performance between under and over $60k income groups, a recent shift. CEO Julie Masino added that Cracker Barrel's strong value proposition, including a lower average check than peers and a successful loyalty program, positions the company well in the current macroeconomic environment.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) leadership

    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer of Gordon Haskett Research Advisors asked about the greatest near-term opportunity to drive traffic at Outback and the assumptions for segment traffic and market share within the 2025 guidance.

    Answer

    CEO Mike Spanos stated that the greatest opportunity for Outback is improving 'consistency of execution' across quality, value, and guest experience, expressing high confidence in turning the brand around. He added that the 2025 guidance assumes casual dining traffic will be down about 3%, and the company aims to win share through consistent execution and building brand trust with everyday value offerings.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer asked for an elaboration on Outback's current value positioning and whether the strategy of lowering promotional price points, such as the move to a $14.99 offer, is the intended path forward.

    Answer

    CEO Mike Spanos defined value as a combination of price, benefits, and the overall guest experience. He noted the team is evaluating how to balance LTOs, everyday value, and menu simplification. CFO Michael Healy confirmed the intentional shift to lower opening price points on LTOs in Q3 to address affordability, noting the team can engineer these offers to be economically sound. Spanos added that the focus is on ensuring these promotions drive sustainable traffic from loyal and new target guests.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to CHEESECAKE FACTORY (CAKE) leadership

    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to CHEESECAKE FACTORY (CAKE) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer asked if the company is seeing signs of an 'increasingly anxious consumer' and inquired about price sensitivity at the core Cheesecake Factory brand.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Matt Clark responded that they do not see evidence of an anxious consumer in their data, citing the brand's resilience and a strong Valentine's Day. He noted that price sensitivity is not a major issue, as attachment rates remain above 2019 levels and the company avoids discounting wars, unlike some competitors, particularly in the quick-service space.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to CHEESECAKE FACTORY (CAKE) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer asked about the factors contributing to the expected moderation in mix headwinds and sought clarity on the menu pricing outlook for Q4 and fiscal year 2025.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Matt Clark explained that the mix headwind is moderating as the company laps the return of larger party sizes. He projected the headwind to be around -1% in Q4 and flatten out in 2025. He confirmed Q4 pricing will be 4.5%, same as Q3, and anticipates 2025 pricing will move closer to the historical 3% level, aiming only to offset inflation.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to Wingstop (WING) leadership

    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to Wingstop (WING) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer asked about the future strategy for the rapidly growing national advertising fund beyond the NBA deal. He also inquired about the unit-level economics and cash-on-cash returns for international franchisees and when international comps might be reported.

    Answer

    CEO Michael Skipworth stated there is still significant runway with current tactics, like increasing ad frequency, and the NBA deal is an example of the strategy's evolution. He confirmed international unit economics, especially in the U.K., are very similar to the U.S. with strong returns. Regarding international comps, he said the company wants to see more scale across markets before breaking them out.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) leadership

    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer of Gordon Haskett followed up on the managing partner tour, asking for any interesting or unexpected feedback from operators, particularly concerning pricing power and consumer demand across different income levels.

    Answer

    CEO Gerald Morgan responded that the conversations were largely focused on internal matters and that feedback on the recent 0.9% price increase has been positive with no pushback. He characterized the overall sentiment from operators as very positive, driven by the company's current success and a shared focus on continuous improvement.

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    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY) leadership

    Jeffrey Farmer's questions to Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Jeffrey Farmer inquired about the number of stores currently operating in the highest game pricing tier and sought to understand the intra-quarter comp trend that led to a deceleration from low-single-digit declines to a 6.3% decline for Q2.

    Answer

    CEO Christopher Morris stated that there have been no material changes to the pricing tiers, as the company feels it has the right formula for now and does not anticipate changes for the rest of the year. Regarding the comp trend, Morris explained that June and July were tougher months and more challenging than the start of the quarter, a macro pressure felt across both the Dave & Buster's and Main Event brands, which moved in lockstep.

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