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    Jens Spiess • Morgan Stanley

    Jens Spiess's questions to Copa Holdings SA (CPA) leadership

    Jens Spiess's questions to Copa Holdings SA (CPA) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Jens Spiess from Morgan Stanley asked about the outlook for the cargo business, including visibility and potential impacts from regional tensions, and questioned the expected volume increase from a new freighter.

    Answer

    CEO Pedro Heilbron described the cargo business as strong, low-risk, and primarily utilizing belly space on passenger aircraft, with short-term visibility. He announced a second 737-800 freighter would be added but clarified that as a single aircraft, it is not expected to 'move the needle in a significant way' on overall results.

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    Jens Spiess's questions to Copa Holdings SA (CPA) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jens Spiess posed a hypothetical question regarding Copa's flexibility to reduce capacity or slow growth should the market environment weaken.

    Answer

    CEO Pedro Heilbron emphasized the company's significant flexibility, pointing to 39 unencumbered aircraft and a diversified network. He explained that the single 737 fleet type allows for easy reallocation of capacity from weaker to stronger markets, a strategy they have successfully employed in the past.

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    Jens Spiess's questions to Copa Holdings SA (CPA) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jens Spiess asked if Copa was observing any weakness in VFR (Visiting Friends and Relatives) traffic from the U.S. due to immigration concerns and inquired about the possibility of accelerating the share buyback program.

    Answer

    CEO Pedro Heilbron stated that Copa is not seeing any weakness in its U.S. traffic, which he described as doing "better than before." On capital returns, he explained the policy is a dividend payout (currently 44% of prior year's net income) supplemented by a buyback program. He expects the remaining $113 million of the current $200 million buyback authorization to be executed throughout the year, driven by strong liquidity.

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    Jens Spiess's questions to Copa Holdings SA (CPA) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jens Spiess asked for clarification on the timing of the Venezuela impact and inquired about the company's capital allocation priorities, particularly regarding share buybacks.

    Answer

    CEO Pedro Heilbron confirmed the impact from the Venezuela flight suspensions will continue into Q4, though at a reduced level of about half the Q3 impact. CFO Jose Montero addressed capital allocation by highlighting the generous dividend policy and an existing $200 million buyback program. However, he emphasized that significant capital will be directed towards upcoming aircraft deliveries, with CapEx approaching $900 million in 2025.

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    Jens Spiess's questions to Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV (ASR) leadership

    Jens Spiess's questions to Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV (ASR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Jens Spiess of Morgan Stanley inquired about the drivers behind the sequential decline in non-aeronautical revenues and the potential impact of the US Department of Transportation's actions on Mexico City airport capacity.

    Answer

    CEO Adolfo Castro Rivas attributed the non-aeronautical revenue softness to unfavorable exchange rates, a slight shift in passenger mix, and operational issues at Terminal 2. Regarding the DOT situation, he noted that ASR's direct exposure to affected Mexican carriers is minimal (1.6% of US traffic) and expressed doubt that the Mexican government would significantly lift capacity restrictions in Mexico City soon.

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    Jens Spiess's questions to Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV (ASR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Jens Spiess inquired about the reasons for the sequential decline in non-aeronautical revenues and the potential impact of a hypothetical lifting of US DOT restrictions on Mexican carriers.

    Answer

    CEO Adolfo Castro Rivas explained that the non-aeronautical revenue softness was driven by unfavorable exchange rates, passenger mix, and operational issues at Terminal 2. He stated that any direct impact from the DOT situation would be minimal for ASR, as US carriers dominate their routes, but noted that any resulting increase in Mexico City's overall capacity would be beneficial.

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    Jens Spiess's questions to Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV (ASR) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jens Spiess asked about capital allocation, specifically the large dividend payment, potential interest in CCR's Brazilian airport assets, any signs of traffic weakness from airlines, and the risk to maximum tariff compliance from FX volatility.

    Answer

    Adolfo Castro Rivas explained the substantial dividend of MXN 24 billion is a payout of accumulated cash. He confirmed ASUR is analyzing the CCR assets and any acquisition would be debt-funded. He stated it's too early to see traffic weakness from airlines, with the main impact on Cancun being the Tulum airport ramp-up. Regarding tariffs, he noted the significant peso depreciation since Q1 2024 provides a large buffer, making him comfortable with year-end compliance.

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    Jens Spiess's questions to Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV (ASR) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jens Spiess asked about potential capacity constraints at Cancun's domestic terminals if domestic airlines were to increase flights while international traffic remains weak.

    Answer

    Executive Adolfo Castro Rivas clarified that while there are no operational capacity restrictions in Terminal 2, there are non-aeronautical constraints, such as limited space for food services. He explained the strategic plan is to move South American traffic to the expanded Terminal 1 upon its completion, freeing up space in Terminal 2 for domestic carriers.

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    Jens Spiess's questions to Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste SAB de CV (ASR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jens Spiess inquired about the traffic outlook for Cancun for the remainder of the year and asked how current traffic is tracking against the assumptions in the Master Development Plan (MDP).

    Answer

    Adolfo Castro Rivas agreed that the situation in Cancun is challenging but expects the winter season to be better. He also confirmed that current passenger traffic is tracking below the levels forecasted in the MDP.

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    Jens Spiess's questions to Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV (PAC) leadership

    Jens Spiess's questions to Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV (PAC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Jens Spiess of Morgan Stanley sought to clarify the potential tariff increase percentage, asked about the outlook for Q4 given strong scheduled capacity growth, and questioned if GAP was at approximately 85% of its maximum allowed tariff in Q2.

    Answer

    CEO Raúl Revuelta Musalem indicated that tariff increases would vary by airport, with some potentially seeing double-digit hikes. He expressed optimism for Q4 capacity but noted load factors are the key variable. He also confirmed that 85% is a reasonable general estimate for tariff utilization in Q2, though it varies by airport.

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    Jens Spiess's questions to Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV (PAC) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jens Spiess from Morgan Stanley sought details on airline capacity trends, particularly conversations with foreign carriers about potential reductions, and asked for an update on the tariff implementation schedule in Mexico.

    Answer

    Executive Raul Musalem reported that the primary international capacity reduction is at Montego Bay, driven by American Airlines. Conversely, GAP is in positive negotiations for potential new routes with Canadian carriers. Regarding tariffs, he confirmed the plan is to consider another adjustment late in the year or early 2026, pending a thorough market analysis at that time.

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    Jens Spiess's questions to Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV (PAC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jens Spiess of Morgan Stanley asked for the thought process behind the 15% tariff increase in March instead of a higher figure, and questioned if there were risks to traffic guidance from lower load factors due to airline issues.

    Answer

    Executive Saúl García explained the 15% tariff increase is based on market analysis to incentivize growth without disrupting traffic, noting it varies by airport. Raul Musalem added that while the economy is softening, the significant lack of aircraft capacity due to engine issues means demand can still be absorbed, making them comfortable with the current traffic guidance.

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    Jens Spiess's questions to Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV (VLRS) leadership

    Jens Spiess's questions to Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV (VLRS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Jens Spiess from Morgan Stanley asked about the potential for capacity easing at Mexico City Airport (AICM), sought clarification on whether the three-percentage-point capacity flexibility applied to 2025 or 2026, and inquired about aircraft delivery and redelivery assumptions for the rest of the year.

    Answer

    President & CEO Enrique Javier Beltranena Mejicano stated he does not foresee further slot capacity increases at AICM for the next 1.5 to 2 years. CFO Jaime Esteban Pous Fernández clarified that Volaris will receive eight new aircraft and redeliver three in the second half of 2025. He and EVP Holger Blankenstein confirmed the +/- 3% capacity flexibility applies to the 2026 guidance, not 2025.

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    Jens Spiess's questions to Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV (VLRS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jens Spiess sought clarity on the drivers of the lower capacity guide, asking for the number of 2025 aircraft redeliveries and associated expenses. He also questioned if the Q2 TRASM guide was conservative and the potential impact of a stronger peso.

    Answer

    Airline Executive Vice President Holger Blankenstein confirmed 5 aircraft redeliveries for the year, with an incremental expense impact of over $90 million. President and CEO Enrique Beltranena stated the Q2 guidance reflects current visibility and confirmed that a stronger peso than the guided MXN 20.20-20.40 range would present an upside to results.

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    Jens Spiess's questions to Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV (VLRS) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jens Spiess sought clarification on the full-year CASM guidance, noting a potential discrepancy with the Q1 guidance. He also requested more detail on the expected progression of aircraft on ground (AOG) numbers through 2025 and into 2026-2027.

    Answer

    Chief Financial Officer Jaime Pous clarified that the CASM ex-fuel guidance of $0.055-$0.056 was for Q1 only, and the full-year 2025 figure should be similar to the 2024 full-year level of $0.054. He projected an average of 30 aircraft on ground for 2025, potentially higher in Q1, and expects a similar level in 2026, but noted it was too early to give firm numbers for 2026-2027.

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    Jens Spiess's questions to Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV (VLRS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Jens Spiess asked about the relative profitability of international versus domestic routes, requested clarification on the company's recent fuel hedging, and questioned how the U.S. dollar revenue mix could reach 50% with balanced capacity growth.

    Answer

    CEO Enrique Beltranena reiterated a focus on profitability over market share. CFO Jaime Pous clarified they hedged 30% of fuel for Nov-Jan at a $2.25 strike price. Enrique Beltranena explained the revenue mix shift will be driven by maturing routes, new international frequencies, and higher ancillary revenues on international flights.

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    Jens Spiess's questions to LATAM Airlines Group SA (LTM) leadership

    Jens Spiess's questions to LATAM Airlines Group SA (LTM) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Jens Spiess asked about the sustainability of the quarter's low cost performance, noting a non-recurring maintenance provision reversal and FX benefits, and inquired about the currency denomination of expenses.

    Answer

    CFO Ricardo Bottas Dourado acknowledged the one-time maintenance adjustment related to aircraft acquisitions but stressed confidence in ongoing cost-control initiatives. He noted a $0.02 CASK ex-fuel benefit from FX and stated that while about 7% of total costs (plus fuel) are in USD, over 60% of revenues are in hard currency, providing a natural hedge.

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    Jens Spiess's questions to LATAM Airlines Group SA (LTM) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Jens Spiess questioned the drivers behind price decreases, asking for more detail on the pricing environment in the Brazilian domestic market and whether the international price decline was driven more by interregional or long-haul flights.

    Answer

    CEO Roberto Alvo Milosawlewitsch explained that the Brazilian domestic market faced a very high comparison base from a strong Q4 2023, but absolute demand remains healthy. For international routes, he described the environment as healthy across the board, with a notable rebound in regional traffic within South America. VP of Corporate Finance Andrés Eitel added that currency depreciation has boosted inbound traffic, supporting overall demand.

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