Jeremy Hamblin • Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC

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CFO Chris Kutsor explained the sales mix will shift towards more subscription long-term but can fluctuate quarterly based on large orders. CEO John Kedzierski introduced the "Evolve Flex" certified pre-owned program, noting it has its first orders. Regarding margins, Kutsor and Kedzierski clarified the shift to direct purchase has a near-term margin headwind but is a strategic choice that yields higher gross profit dollars and "substantially higher" long-term ARR, improving the business's net present value.

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CEO John Kedzierski confirmed that expansions are coming from the existing Express installed base but did not specify verticals. He noted the company is actively engaging with California customers regarding the new hospital safety legislation, viewing it as a positive market indicator. On margins, he reiterated that they should remain consistent, with some potential headwinds from a mix shift towards full subscriptions. Executive Brian Norris provided a CapEx forecast of $20 million to $25 million for the year.

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President and CEO Peter George confirmed the NYC deployment is driving inbound interest from other cities. CFO Mark Donohue addressed financials, projecting cash levels to bottom out around $60 million before reaching adjusted EBITDA profitability in Q2 2025. He noted the distribution model mix exceeded 40% in Q2 and is targeted for 50% by Q4. Donohue attributed the G&A increase primarily to reserves for legal settlements.

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CEO Ralph Clark reported progress on the Chicago RFP, having advanced to the live demo phase in September, suggesting a decision may be approaching. CFO Alan Stewart detailed the NYPD sub-licensing financials, noting that while it adds costs, it eliminates a larger commission payment, resulting in significant net savings. Clark added that the large CrimeTracer deal, with an ARR of approximately $2.4 million, is conservatively expected in Q4 but they are working to close it in Q3.

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Executive Ralph Clark estimated the California opportunity at ~4,000 lanes across ~400 hospitals and detailed the SafePointe pricing model of ~$20,000 per lane per year, which he believes offers a compelling total cost of ownership. He also expressed excitement for international growth, particularly in Latin America, with deals expected in late 2025 or early 2026. Executive Alan Stewart attributed the higher R&D costs to personnel and cloud services for AI modeling, primarily for SafePointe.

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CFO Scott Bowman confirmed the primary issue is new patient traffic, as conversion and attrition rates are stable. He detailed that the 37 refranchised clinics generated $11.2 million in gross proceeds, with $2.8 million used to buy back RD rights, resulting in net cash of approximately $8.3 million. CEO Sanjiv Razdan added that the company is pivoting its marketing message to focus on pain relief and exploring 'buy now, pay later' options to improve affordability and avoid sticker shock.

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Executive Sanjiv Razdan explained that the guidance is largely predicated on the rollout of dynamic pricing initiatives in the second half of the year. He noted that testing pricing changes takes a minimum of 2-3 months. Executive Jake Singleton added that about 85% of sales still come from recurring monthly products and they are not seeing defection from this model. He also confirmed the convention costs hit the Q2 sales and marketing line and were less than previous national events.

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Executive Jake Singleton noted that year-to-date trends were consistent with Q4, though February was unusual. Regarding valuations, executives explained that bidders are using a franchise-centric adjusted EBITDA multiple, but specific details could not be shared during active negotiations. Jake Singleton attributed higher marketing costs to strategic media spend, a biennial conference, and new agency onboarding. He also stated that by the end of 2024, approximately 80% of members were on standard pricing, with 20% on legacy rates.

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Chief Marketing & eCommerce Officer Jennifer Porter confirmed that the prior year's comps were softer in July and August 2024. CFO Michael Lee addressed the second half outlook, stating that the gross margin will be impacted by an estimated $12 million in tariffs, primarily in H2. He also noted that SG&A will see increased investment, particularly in Q4, related to strategic initiatives like the new ERP system, with a lion's share of the planned $10 million spend occurring in the back half of the year.

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CEO John Reed affirmed the company's commitment to its long-term growth plan, stating there is no reason to slow down showroom openings for 2026-2027. He emphasized the company's strong cash position allows it to invest through cycles to capture market share. SVP of Finance Ryan Brody stated that while there might be slight occupancy deleverage for the full year, it will not be as pronounced as it was in Q1.

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An executive mentioned a key opening in Pasadena, CA, and recent success in Florida, noting they open stores in great locations rather than just hitting a number. Jennifer Porter, CMO, stated that while historically their client was tied more to the stock market, she cautioned against relying on past patterns. She emphasized the company focuses on executing its strategy and uses daily showroom interactions as a leading indicator of demand.

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CFO Dawn Phillipson outlined that the planning software and manufacturing ERP are expected to launch in H1 2025, while other systems will be kicked off later. She noted the spend breakdown is being finalized. Regarding promotions, she attributed September's strength to their standard biannual sale but highlighted that improved trends continued into October, suggesting broader brand resonance beyond the event.

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President and CEO Jason Potter stated that the new store mix will be around 50% or better for infill markets in the near term, with an aspiration to improve new store returns to over 30% over time. He noted that the number one request from IOs is the 'new arrival guide,' which is expected to roll out in the fall. He also clarified that the double-digit lift in meat and produce at test stores comes from a separate, new forecasting tool, not the arrival guide.

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CEO Jason Potter provided a concise update, stating that UGO is performing in line with expectations with growing sales. He set the timeline for further integration of the business for late 2026.

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Management declined to quantify the specific dollar amount. However, Interim CFO Lindsay Gray provided context, attributing the higher SG&A to greater-than-expected system infrastructure costs and overlapping internal and external resources needed to stabilize and enhance the new systems. She described these costs as largely 'transitionary and temporary' but expects some to continue into 2025, hence the guidance to 'build towards' the 6% EBITDA margin target next year.

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COO & CFO Brittany Bagley and President Josh Isner clarified that while D-Drone was a significant growth driver within the platform solutions segment, it is not yet a material driver of overall company growth. For investments, Isner outlined a strategy of relentless R&D spending, funded by G&A operating leverage, alongside targeted sales team expansion.

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CFO Brittany Bagley responded that for the past couple of quarters, cloud growth has been split roughly 50/50 between new user growth and premium plan adoption, suggesting that is a good rule of thumb for 2025. CEO Patrick Smith described the counter-drone space as critically important across military, government, and enterprise verticals, viewing Dedrone as an exciting long-term business. Bagley clarified Dedrone revenue is split between the Software & Services and Connected Devices segments.

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President Joshua Isner stated there is more opportunity than risk in the federal space, as agencies seek value, and clarified that guidance does not include incremental revenue from Ukraine. CEO Patrick Smith added that global events have put drone detection on every military's roadmap, positioning Axon as a leader through its Dedrone acquisition and Skydio partnership.

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Joshua Isner, President, stated that Axon sees more opportunity than risk in the federal space, as budget scrutiny could drive agencies toward Axon's high-value technology. Patrick Smith, CEO, added that global conflicts have highlighted the need for drone detection, positioning Axon as a leader. Isner also clarified that forward-looking guidance does not assume any incremental revenue from Ukraine.

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CFO Brittany Bagley explained that cartridge revenue is lumpy because some international customers buy in bulk rather than on a plan, and a large order from the previous quarter did not repeat. EVP Joshua Isner attributed TASER's overall success to "phenomenal product market fit," with the T10's advanced capabilities inspiring confidence globally and making customers feel it can outperform a firearm in the field.

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CEO John Hazen outlined the cadence as 14 openings in Q1, 16 planned for Q2, and the remaining 35 to 40 in the second half of the year. CFO Jim Watkins affirmed that the company intends to stick with its 15% annual unit growth target to ensure high-quality locations and avoid straining operations, though it is something they continually evaluate.

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CEO John Hazen explained that recent e-commerce performance was impacted by lapping a promotion from the prior year in April and a temporary systems upgrade at a major third-party drop-ship vendor. He emphasized that the core bootbarn.com business remains strong with double-digit comps. CFO Jim Watkins stated that 10-12 new stores would open in Q1, with the remainder spread evenly, and openings would be broad-based across new and existing markets.

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CFO Jim Watkins clarified the CEO transition benefit was a $6.7 million reversal of non-tax-deductible SG&A expense, a one-time event in Q3. Interim CEO John Hazen identified the biggest opportunity as applying the successful inventory and execution strategies from the holiday season more broadly, rather than chasing new product trends.

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Former CEO Jim Conroy recalled the 2016 election caused a disruption of a few comp points and noted about 25% of exclusive brands come from Mexico. He explained that occupancy deleverage is due to the lower sales volume of new stores relative to mature ones, which has a greater mathematical impact in a smaller sales quarter like Q2.

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SVP Benjamin Porten confirmed sequential monthly improvement in comps, with May turning positive for both comps and traffic, driven by the reservation system rollout and a new IP campaign. CFO Jeff Uttz explained the guidance raise was due to increased confidence after a historically challenging period. Porten added that Q4 labor inflation is expected to be in the low-to-mid single digits, an improvement from Q2 and Q3, and that various operational initiatives are beginning to yield benefits.

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CFO Jeff Uttz declined to give specific sourcing numbers but confirmed a recent sell-side report's estimate was 'in the ballpark.' Hajime Uba, via interpreter Benjamin Porten, clarified that wage pressure is broad-based across markets due to statutory increases and competitive positioning, not a California-specific issue. He also stated that one more unit is scheduled for Q3 and they are comfortable with two openings in Q4.

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Hajime Uba, speaking through interpreter Benjamin Porten, attributed the strong Q1 performance to successful IP collaborations (One Piece and Pikmin) and a food-focused 'perfect pair' campaign that significantly boosted mix. He noted November was the strongest month. Benjamin Porten acknowledged that Q2 presents a more difficult comparison as the company laps a strong 'Peanuts' collaboration without a new one, shifting the focus to profitability and cost control for the quarter.

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CFO Jeff Uttz attributed the increase in other costs to inflation in utilities, software licenses, and repair services, noting the company is using software to optimize vendor pricing. Benjamin Porten clarified the delivery cost was from a non-recurring promotional campaign with DoorDash. Mr. Porten detailed that the new reservation system, expected in early spring, could save up to 50 basis points on labor, which is considered upside to their current plan. Mr. Uttz described the litigation expense as related to typical wage and hour claims common in the restaurant industry.

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CEO Winnie Park stated it is unclear if de minimis changes have had an impact due to Five Below's unique, kid-focused model. Regarding sourcing, she said the focus is on chasing trends and diversifying the vendor base, not hitting a specific country percentage. COO Ken Bull added that in a normalized environment, they expect operating margin expansion from these accelerated efforts.

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CFO Kristy Chipman confirmed this assessment, stating the full-year gross margin impact from tariffs is estimated at 100 basis points. She specified there would be virtually no impact in Q1, a partial impact in Q2, and that the impact in the second half of the year would be roughly double the full-year average, at approximately 200 basis points.

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Interim CEO Ken Bull noted that in 2019, comparable sales decelerated by approximately 500 basis points from Q3 to Q4, a pattern similar to the company's current Q4 guidance. He explained that impacting the Q4 assortment is more difficult than Q3 due to its larger scale and gift-giving focus. While always seeking improvement, he expressed high satisfaction with the team's holiday preparation and execution.

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Interim President and CEO Kenneth Bull confirmed that the entire store base remains profitable on a four-wall basis. He stated that new unit productivity is now in the 80-85% range, which he considers reasonable given market densification. He expects similar levels of cannibalization to what has been experienced recently to continue as they infill markets.

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President and CFO Kevin Buchel confirmed an 8.5% surcharge was implemented in April and that the annual July price increase might be higher than the typical 3-4%. He expects Q4 to be seasonally strong, aided by a price increase pull-forward effect, and noted that strong radio sales from Q1 are already boosting the recurring revenue run rate. He added that while the company can be aggressive with incentives if needed, the fair reception of the price increase suggests it may not be necessary.

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President and CFO Kevin Buchel reaffirmed the long-term goal of a mid-40s EBITDA margin, despite a recent dip to 28%. He outlined that achieving this requires RSR growth near 20% with 90%+ gross margins, equipment sales growth of 10% with gross margins in the 30s, and reasonable OpEx growth. To reach 30%+ equipment gross margins, Buchel stated that quarterly hardware sales must be a "bare minimum" of $30 million to drive sufficient overhead absorption at the Dominican Republic factory.

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President, COO, and CFO Kevin Buchel explained that support costs (carrier minutes) are minimal for both radio types, and the significantly higher fee for fire radios makes them far more profitable. Chairman and CEO Richard Soloway added that due to high-volume purchasing and competitive bidding, the company is not seeing inflationary price increases from carriers. Regarding the revenue mix, Soloway stated the company is aggressively pushing for growth in both recurring revenue and locking hardware, aiming to expand market share and drive overall growth in both categories rather than focusing on a specific mix target.

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Kevin Buchel, President, COO & CFO, explained that margin improvement is driven by product mix and volume. He highlighted that the strong performance of the higher-margin locking business (65% of hardware sales) and increased manufacturing volume, which improves overhead absorption at the Dominican Republic facility, are key factors. He aims to see margins progress towards 40% during fiscal 2025, citing investments like a second high-speed chip shooter machine as a sign of confidence.

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Executive Eric van der Valk explained that Q1 trends mirrored Q4, with consumables remaining strong and big-ticket items soft, and noted that poor weather delayed seasonal lawn and garden sales. Executive Robert Helm detailed that preopening expenses will follow the store opening cadence, with about two-thirds in the first half, peaking in Q2, and being relatively low in Q4.

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CFO Robert Helm quantified the additional Q4 preopening expense drag at about $0.01 of EPS due to rent on acquired stores, but expects 2025 to be 'status quo' aside from timing. An executive explained that these 'warm stores' ramp much faster than typical new stores because they are in recently active retail locations with existing value-oriented traffic, a trend they expect to continue with the Big Lots sites.

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Executive Vice President and COO Eric van der Valk responded that the focus for expansion remains on existing trade areas and contiguous states, as significant opportunity still exists there. CFO Robert Helm indicated it was too early for specific 2025 guidance but offered a baseline CapEx assumption of around 2.5% of net sales, with the financial strength to flex higher if needed. CEO John Swygert cautioned against speculating on unconfirmed opportunities.

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CEO Eric van der Valk confirmed that new stores, particularly the former Big Lots locations, are seeing outsized performance in converting customers to the Ollie's Army loyalty program. He clarified the new June shopping event is a strategic enhancement to the loyalty program and is not expected to be as large as the December event, but will be accretive.

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CEO Kenneth Seipel attributed the strong performance to the addition of an off-price model and the company's unique positioning with neighborhood-based stores, which is driving market share gains. He detailed that 'extreme value' off-price deals currently represent 1-2% of the business and are planned to grow to an additive 10%. Seipel noted that while he couldn't disclose specific names, the company is targeting top-of-mind, well-known brands at compelling prices. To reach the long-term EBITDA goal, he stated the company is targeting an EBITDA margin in the 5% to 7% range.

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CEO Kenneth Seipel and CFO Heather Plutino explained that while November was exceptionally strong, the Q4 guidance remains cautious due to tougher December comps and calendar shifts. Plutino noted December accounts for about 50% of Q4 sales. On shrink, she estimated a 50-70 basis point full-year drag versus historical levels and detailed a multi-faceted improvement plan with gradual results expected in 2025. Seipel outlined a strategy of aggressive remodels in 2025 followed by a return to new store growth in 2026. Plutino confirmed the average CTx remodel cost has been reduced to approximately $110,000.

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CEO Kenneth Seipel acknowledged the core problem was a stale merchandise assortment that lacked both opening price points and sufficient brands, which the company is now correcting. CFO Heather Plutino added that while Q3/Q4 compares get slightly harder, the company is focused on driving sales with its new product strategy. On shrink, Plutino confirmed that internal theft is the primary area of focus, consistent with the broader retail industry. She also clarified that a calendar shift had a small positive impact on Q2 and is expected to be neutral for Q3.

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