Jeremy Hamblin

Jeremy Hamblin inquired about the record-high 33.9% adjusted gross margins in Q3, the implications for Q4, the impact of recent changes in tariff policy, and the role of shrink accrual rates.

Answer

CFO Dan Sullivan clarified that the 10% reduction in reciprocal tariffs from an executive order will not affect 2025 results. He noted that tariff headwinds in Q3 and Q4 were lower than profiled due to mitigation efforts and price receptivity. The Q3 gross margin accretion was primarily driven by the 70 basis point shrink benefit, with no shrink assumptions baked into the Q4 outlook.

Jeremy Hamblin of Craig-Hallum Capital Group asked for the updated impact of incentive compensation on the full-year outlook and sought clarification on whether the 'Five Beyond' concept was being de-emphasized as part of the pricing simplification.

Answer

Interim CFO & COO Kenneth Bull stated that the full-year deleverage from incentive compensation is now expected to be approximately 70 basis points, up from 50. CEO Winnie Park clarified that Five Beyond is not being de-emphasized but rather integrated 'in-line' with core assortments, which better reflects how customers shop.

Jeremy Hamblin from Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC asked about the potential for further reducing China sourcing in 2026 and if changes to the de minimis exemption have affected competition.

Answer

CEO Winnie Park stated it is unclear if de minimis changes have had an impact due to Five Below's unique, kid-focused model. Regarding sourcing, she said the focus is on chasing trends and diversifying the vendor base, not hitting a specific country percentage. COO Ken Bull added that in a normalized environment, they expect operating margin expansion from these accelerated efforts.

Jeremy Hamblin requested more granular detail on the timing of the tariff impact on gross margins throughout the year, noting it appeared to be weighted towards the second half.

Answer

CFO Kristy Chipman confirmed this assessment, stating the full-year gross margin impact from tariffs is estimated at 100 basis points. She specified there would be virtually no impact in Q1, a partial impact in Q2, and that the impact in the second half of the year would be roughly double the full-year average, at approximately 200 basis points.

Jeremy Hamblin inquired about potential missed product opportunities in Q4 and asked for a reminder of the comparable sales impact from the compressed holiday shopping season in 2019.

Answer

Interim CEO Ken Bull noted that in 2019, comparable sales decelerated by approximately 500 basis points from Q3 to Q4, a pattern similar to the company's current Q4 guidance. He explained that impacting the Q4 assortment is more difficult than Q3 due to its larger scale and gift-giving focus. While always seeking improvement, he expressed high satisfaction with the team's holiday preparation and execution.

Jeremy Hamblin of Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC asked for confirmation that all stores remain profitable on a four-wall basis and inquired about current new unit productivity expectations and the outlook for store cannibalization.

Answer

Interim President and CEO Kenneth Bull confirmed that the entire store base remains profitable on a four-wall basis. He stated that new unit productivity is now in the 80-85% range, which he considers reasonable given market densification. He expects similar levels of cannibalization to what has been experienced recently to continue as they infill markets.

Jeremy Hamblin asked about the current contribution of extreme value deals to sales, the progression towards the 10% target, and visibility on future deal flow. He also inquired about the cadence of new store openings for 2026 and 2027, progress on shrink mitigation efforts, and the expected impact on gross margin. Finally, he asked for more details on the CRM and loyalty platform implementation, its timing, and expected outcomes for digital marketing.

Answer

Ken Seipel (Chairman and CEO) confirmed robust extreme value deal flow, with current sales at 2-3% of business, aiming for 10% as they refine processes. He outlined plans for 40 stores per year by 2027, with openings in early spring, July, and October, while 2026 will see lighter spring openings. Heather Plutino (CFO) detailed the rollout of new AI-capable camera systems to a third of stores in 2025, planning to double in 2026, expecting shrink rate decreases in 2026 and 2027. Mr. Seipel announced a phased CRM launch in Q1 next year, with the 'Insiders Club' loyalty program offering early access to deals, electronic receipts, and digital layaway access.

Jeremy Hamblin from Craig-Hallum inquired about the timing and expected outcomes of Citi Trends' new CRM and loyalty platform, including its role in digital marketing and the potential for a loyalty program.

Answer

Ken Seipel, Chairman and CEO of Citi Trends, stated that a Phase 1 CRM launch is targeted for Q1 next year, with Phase 2 in Fall 2026. He described the loyalty program, tentatively named 'Insiders Club,' as a way for customers to access emerging trends and deals, receive early notifications for extreme value offers, and drive incremental traffic. The platform will also offer convenience features like electronic receipts and digital access for layaway, while providing a significant database for targeted marketing.

Jeremy Hamblin of Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC asked for more color on the drivers of sustained sales momentum into Q3, the strategy and economics behind the store remodel program, and the company's plans for returning to mid-single-digit unit growth in fiscal 2026. He also requested an update on supply chain improvement initiatives.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Seipel attributed the momentum to a combination of disciplined preseason planning, strong merchant execution on brands like True Religion, and improved in-store operations. He confirmed plans for 25-40 new stores in 2026. CFO Heather Plutino detailed remodel costs at $85k-$130k per store and new store targets of ~$1.45M in sales with mid-teens four-wall flow-through. Mr. Seipel also outlined supply chain progress, noting faster DC-to-store transit and ongoing work to optimize in-DC processing with AI systems.

Jeremy Hamblin inquired about the key drivers behind Citi Trends' sales momentum and significant 2-year stack improvement, the current and future mix of off-price inventory, the types of brands being pursued, and the sales level needed to achieve the long-term EBITDA target of $40-50 million.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Seipel attributed the strong performance to the addition of an off-price model and the company's unique positioning with neighborhood-based stores, which is driving market share gains. He detailed that 'extreme value' off-price deals currently represent 1-2% of the business and are planned to grow to an additive 10%. Seipel noted that while he couldn't disclose specific names, the company is targeting top-of-mind, well-known brands at compelling prices. To reach the long-term EBITDA goal, he stated the company is targeting an EBITDA margin in the 5% to 7% range.

Jeremy Hamblin asked about the conservatism of Q4 sales guidance given strong November trends, the proportion of Q4 sales from December, the margin impact from shrink, the long-term store fleet strategy, and the cost of CTx remodels.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Seipel and CFO Heather Plutino explained that while November was exceptionally strong, the Q4 guidance remains cautious due to tougher December comps and calendar shifts. Plutino noted December accounts for about 50% of Q4 sales. On shrink, she estimated a 50-70 basis point full-year drag versus historical levels and detailed a multi-faceted improvement plan with gradual results expected in 2025. Seipel outlined a strategy of aggressive remodels in 2025 followed by a return to new store growth in 2026. Plutino confirmed the average CTx remodel cost has been reduced to approximately $110,000.

Jeremy Hamblin asked about same-store sales trends, noting that despite traffic growth, sales were down on an easy compare while competitors were strong. He questioned if the primary issue was merchandise assortment or the price-value equation. He also sought clarity on whether inventory shrink was mainly an internal or external theft problem and asked about the calendar shift's impact on Q2 and Q3.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Seipel acknowledged the core problem was a stale merchandise assortment that lacked both opening price points and sufficient brands, which the company is now correcting. CFO Heather Plutino added that while Q3/Q4 compares get slightly harder, the company is focused on driving sales with its new product strategy. On shrink, Plutino confirmed that internal theft is the primary area of focus, consistent with the broader retail industry. She also clarified that a calendar shift had a small positive impact on Q2 and is expected to be neutral for Q3.

Jeremy Hamblin asked about the interplay between software and services and connected devices, noting the strong ARR and software growth versus slower connected devices growth in Q3 2025. He questioned if this reflects fewer new licenses but higher value per license, and if this trend is expected to continue over the next three to five years. He also asked about the expected growth materiality of Axon 911 versus Dedrone.

Answer

CFO Brittany Bagley stated that software and services are expected to maintain higher-than-average growth due to both increased customer features and user count. She also noted strong growth in TASER and body camera segments, with new products like ABW Mini contributing next year. President Josh Isner agreed, emphasizing user growth from international and enterprise markets. He added that Dedrone, being a hardware and software business, would likely show revenue impact sooner than the software-centric Axon 911 acquisitions (Prepared and Carbyne), which are long-term disruptors.

Jeremy Hamblin asked about the interplay between software and services and connected devices, noting the strong ARR and software growth in 2025 versus slower connected devices growth. He questioned if this indicated fewer new licenses but higher value per license, and how this growth trend is expected to evolve over the next three to five years. He also asked about the expected materiality and growth trajectory of newer platform pieces like Axon 911 versus Dedrone.

Answer

CFO Brittany Bagley and President Josh Isner stated that software and services are expected to maintain higher-than-average growth due to increased customer features and user count, while TASER and body cameras also show strong, sustained growth. Josh Isner and Brittany Bagley clarified that Dedrone, with its hardware component, is expected to impact revenue faster than Axon 911's software-centric offerings, but both hold significant long-term value, alongside Fusus and vehicle intelligence.

Jeremy Hamblin of Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC asked if D-Drone was the primary driver of platform solutions growth and where the company sees the greatest need for infrastructure investment.

Answer

COO & CFO Brittany Bagley and President Josh Isner clarified that while D-Drone was a significant growth driver within the platform solutions segment, it is not yet a material driver of overall company growth. For investments, Isner outlined a strategy of relentless R&D spending, funded by G&A operating leverage, alongside targeted sales team expansion.

Jeremy Hamblin asked whether 2025 cloud services growth would be driven more by user base expansion or by higher Average Selling Price (ASP) per user, and also inquired about the market outlook for the Dedrone counter-drone business.

Answer

CFO Brittany Bagley responded that for the past couple of quarters, cloud growth has been split roughly 50/50 between new user growth and premium plan adoption, suggesting that is a good rule of thumb for 2025. CEO Patrick Smith described the counter-drone space as critically important across military, government, and enterprise verticals, viewing Dedrone as an exciting long-term business. Bagley clarified Dedrone revenue is split between the Software & Services and Connected Devices segments.

Jeremy Hamblin asked about Axon's revenue exposure to U.S. federal contracts amid potential hiring freezes and inquired about the impact of a potential end to the war in Ukraine on the Dedrone business, particularly concerning Border Patrol opportunities.

Answer

President Joshua Isner stated there is more opportunity than risk in the federal space, as agencies seek value, and clarified that guidance does not include incremental revenue from Ukraine. CEO Patrick Smith added that global events have put drone detection on every military's roadmap, positioning Axon as a leader through its Dedrone acquisition and Skydio partnership.

Jeremy Hamblin asked about the potential impact of U.S. federal hiring freezes on Axon's revenue and the business implications of geopolitical events like the war in Ukraine, particularly concerning Dedrone and Border Patrol opportunities.

Answer

Joshua Isner, President, stated that Axon sees more opportunity than risk in the federal space, as budget scrutiny could drive agencies toward Axon's high-value technology. Patrick Smith, CEO, added that global conflicts have highlighted the need for drone detection, positioning Axon as a leader. Isner also clarified that forward-looking guidance does not assume any incremental revenue from Ukraine.

Jeremy Hamblin asked for details on the drivers of TASER's international traction and whether its long-term potential is now viewed as larger. He also questioned why TASER cartridge revenue growth was significantly lower than device growth.

Answer

CFO Brittany Bagley explained that cartridge revenue is lumpy because some international customers buy in bulk rather than on a plan, and a large order from the previous quarter did not repeat. EVP Joshua Isner attributed TASER's overall success to "phenomenal product market fit," with the T10's advanced capabilities inspiring confidence globally and making customers feel it can outperform a firearm in the field.

Jeremy Hamblin inquired about the success of Byrna's new advertising campaign, the momentum in web traffic, expectations for conversion rates, and whether the campaign is reaching new customer demographics. He also asked about the anticipated channel mix for Q4 and the sustainability of expense leverage observed in Q3.

Answer

CEO Bryan Ganz noted that while web sessions continue to climb, dampening conversion rates, he expects significant improvement, though not necessarily back to the 1.5% seen last year. CFO Lauri Kearnes stated that Q4 channel mix would still see strong dealer and chain store sales, but direct-to-consumer channels are expected to be a higher percentage than in Q3. Kearnes also indicated that Q4 expense leverage would be close to Q3, with some additional marketing, and continued leverage is expected in FY2026.

Jeremy Hamblin inquired about the impact of Byrna Technologies Inc.'s new advertising campaign on conversion rates, specifically whether the 70-75% increase in web traffic indicates reaching a new customer demographic, and the expected channel mix for Q4 2025. He also asked about the sustainability of the expense leverage observed in Q3 2025 for Q4 and fiscal year 2026.

Answer

CEO Bryan Ganz acknowledged the uncertainty regarding conversion rates with an expanded demographic but noted that rates are starting to climb, though new web sessions continue to dampen the immediate effect. He expects significant improvement, though not necessarily back to historical 1.5% holiday rates. CFO Laurilee Kearnes stated that Q4 would still see strong dealer and chain store sales, but DTC channels are expected to be a higher percentage of overall sales than in Q3. Kearnes also indicated that expense leverage would continue in Q4, albeit with some additional marketing, and largely maintain into FY2026 despite incremental labor hires.

Jeremy Hamblin of Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC inquired about Destination XL's strategy to increase its mix of private brands, asking for current and future penetration targets and the margin difference compared to national brands. He also questioned the potential financial impact of tariffs for fiscal 2026 and the company's projected capital expenditures.

Answer

President and CEO Harvey Kanter explained the strategic shift to private brands is driven by better quality, value, and margins. He stated the mix is currently 56.5% and is targeted to exceed 60% in 2026 and 65% in 2027, with a merchandise margin advantage of over 1,000 basis points versus national brands. Kanter noted the tariff situation is too volatile to forecast for 2026. CFO Peter Stratton added that with new store openings paused, maintenance CapEx is expected to be in the typical $5 million to $12 million range, though a specific 2026 figure is not yet set.

Jeremy Hamblin of Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC asked a series of detailed questions regarding the potential impact of tariffs on both owned and third-party brands, the expected effect of a more aggressive promotional strategy on 2025 gross margins, the mechanics of migrating customers to the new loyalty program, and the performance metrics and investment costs for new stores.

Answer

CEO Harvey Kanter and CFO Peter Stratton addressed the questions. On tariffs, they noted minimal direct exposure for private brands (around 10 basis points) and a current sales mix of roughly 50/50 between private and national brands. Regarding promotions, Stratton anticipates a small erosion in merchandise margin of less than 100 basis points in 2025, with occupancy deleverage being the larger factor. Kanter detailed the new loyalty program, which requires active sign-ups to build a more engaged user base and is seeing initial sign-ups at double the forecasted rate. On new stores, Kanter stated that traffic is the primary challenge, attributing underperformance to low brand awareness, while Stratton noted the cash outlay was around $1 million per store in 2024, with efforts to reduce costs for 2025 openings.

Asked a series of questions about the potential impact of tariffs on national brands, the expected effect of increased promotions on 2025 gross margins, the mechanics of migrating to the new loyalty program, and the performance and investment costs associated with new stores.

Answer

The company stated its direct tariff exposure is minimal (10 basis points) and the situation with national brands is being monitored. The brand mix is roughly 50/50. Increased promotions are expected to cause minor merchandise margin erosion (less than 100 bps). The new loyalty program requires active sign-ups to build a more engaged base and is seeing strong initial adoption. New stores are underperforming due to low traffic and brand awareness, though other metrics are good, with investment costs around $1 million per store.

Jeremy Hamblin of D.A. Davidson & Co. inquired about the progress of strategic collaborations, specifically with Nordstrom and UNTUCKit. He also asked what the company is learning from the customer shift towards lower-value brands and how DXL plans to adjust its product assortment in response.

Answer

President and CEO Harvey Kanter explained that the Nordstrom marketplace collaboration is in its early stages, with initial marketing just launched and encouraging organic sales. He noted the UNTUCKit partnership is expanding to 100 stores, with more versions of the product planned for 2025, and that other brands are now approaching DXL for similar collaborations. Regarding customer behavior, Kanter acknowledged a trade-down to lower price point brands amid a soft men's apparel market. He stated DXL is purposefully augmenting its assortment with more accessible, entry-price-point brands like Haggar and Champion to address this shift without compromising on the company's proprietary fit and experience.

Jeremy Hamblin asked for the expected incremental impact of medical and casualty costs for fiscal 2025 and inquired about the drivers of the record Q2 gross margin, questioning if product mix played a significant role.

Answer

EVP and CFO Robert Helm stated that higher medical costs accounted for essentially all of the SG&A deleverage and that a slight improvement is baked into the second-half forecast. Regarding gross margin, he credited the strength of the consumables business and attachment sales from great deals. President and CEO Eric van der Valk added that consolidation in the closeout market has increased Ollie's buying power and access to deals.

Jeremy Hamblin asked for more granular detail on category performance during Q1, specifically what drove the softness in February and the subsequent pickup in March. He also requested guidance on the quarterly cadence of the projected $21 million in preopening expenses.

Answer

Executive Eric van der Valk explained that Q1 trends mirrored Q4, with consumables remaining strong and big-ticket items soft, and noted that poor weather delayed seasonal lawn and garden sales. Executive Robert Helm detailed that preopening expenses will follow the store opening cadence, with about two-thirds in the first half, peaking in Q2, and being relatively low in Q4.

Jeremy Hamblin asked for quantification of the increased preopening expenses for FY24 and an outlook for 2025. He also sought more detail on the performance of acquired 99 Cents Only stores compared to typical new stores.

Answer

CFO Robert Helm quantified the additional Q4 preopening expense drag at about $0.01 of EPS due to rent on acquired stores, but expects 2025 to be 'status quo' aside from timing. An executive explained that these 'warm stores' ramp much faster than typical new stores because they are in recently active retail locations with existing value-oriented traffic, a trend they expect to continue with the Big Lots sites.

Jeremy Hamblin followed up on the real estate opportunity, asking if Ollie's would consider entering new, non-contiguous markets. He also asked for a potential range for fiscal 2025 capital expenditures given the possibility of accelerated store acquisitions.

Answer

Executive Vice President and COO Eric van der Valk responded that the focus for expansion remains on existing trade areas and contiguous states, as significant opportunity still exists there. CFO Robert Helm indicated it was too early for specific 2025 guidance but offered a baseline CapEx assumption of around 2.5% of net sales, with the financial strength to flex higher if needed. CEO John Swygert cautioned against speculating on unconfirmed opportunities.

Jeremy Hamblin of Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC questioned the performance of Ollie's Army sign-ups in former Big Lots stores versus legacy stores and the expected impact of the new mid-year private shopping event.

Answer

CEO Eric van der Valk confirmed that new stores, particularly the former Big Lots locations, are seeing outsized performance in converting customers to the Ollie's Army loyalty program. He clarified the new June shopping event is a strategic enhancement to the loyalty program and is not expected to be as large as the December event, but will be accretive.

Jeremy Hamblin from Craig-Hallum Capital Group asked about customer churn rates in response to price increases and whether pricing was also increased for recurring revenue services. He also inquired about plans for capital allocation, specifically regarding potential increases to the dividend or share buyback program.

Answer

President and COO Kevin Buchel reported that churn is 'inconsequential' due to the company's focus on the commercial market and that there was no pushback on equipment price hikes. He confirmed that NAPCO did not increase prices on recurring revenue, prioritizing market share growth for its radios. Regarding capital allocation, Buchel indicated that while the dividend was held at $0.14, there is room for future growth. He added that the company is always opportunistically evaluating buybacks while remaining mindful of the stock's float.

Jeremy Hamblin asked for the specific magnitude of the recent and upcoming price increases, the outlook for typical Q4 seasonality, and whether softer equipment sales might impact future service revenue growth. He also inquired about the strategy for dealer incentives.

Answer

President and CFO Kevin Buchel confirmed an 8.5% surcharge was implemented in April and that the annual July price increase might be higher than the typical 3-4%. He expects Q4 to be seasonally strong, aided by a price increase pull-forward effect, and noted that strong radio sales from Q1 are already boosting the recurring revenue run rate. He added that while the company can be aggressive with incentives if needed, the fair reception of the price increase suggests it may not be necessary.

Jeremy Hamblin of Craig-Hallum Capital Group asked for an updated perspective on the company's long-term financial targets and questioned what level of quarterly equipment sales is needed to restore equipment gross margins to the 30%+ range.

Answer

President and CFO Kevin Buchel reaffirmed the long-term goal of a mid-40s EBITDA margin, despite a recent dip to 28%. He outlined that achieving this requires RSR growth near 20% with 90%+ gross margins, equipment sales growth of 10% with gross margins in the 30s, and reasonable OpEx growth. To reach 30%+ equipment gross margins, Buchel stated that quarterly hardware sales must be a "bare minimum" of $30 million to drive sufficient overhead absorption at the Dominican Republic factory.

Jeremy Hamblin followed up on the fire versus burglary alarm topic, asking about the support cost differences and whether margins are better simply due to higher fees. He also inquired about inflationary pressures on the cost of carrier minutes and the long-term potential for service revenues to exceed equipment revenues as a percentage of the total mix.

Answer

President, COO, and CFO Kevin Buchel explained that support costs (carrier minutes) are minimal for both radio types, and the significantly higher fee for fire radios makes them far more profitable. Chairman and CEO Richard Soloway added that due to high-volume purchasing and competitive bidding, the company is not seeing inflationary price increases from carriers. Regarding the revenue mix, Soloway stated the company is aggressively pushing for growth in both recurring revenue and locking hardware, aiming to expand market share and drive overall growth in both categories rather than focusing on a specific mix target.

Jeremy Hamblin of Craig-Hallum Capital Group questioned the progression of equipment gross margins, asking about the path to achieving the company's long-term target of 40%+, especially given the current distributor inventory situation.

Answer

Kevin Buchel, President, COO & CFO, explained that margin improvement is driven by product mix and volume. He highlighted that the strong performance of the higher-margin locking business (65% of hardware sales) and increased manufacturing volume, which improves overhead absorption at the Dominican Republic facility, are key factors. He aims to see margins progress towards 40% during fiscal 2025, citing investments like a second high-speed chip shooter machine as a sign of confidence.

Jeremy Hamblin of Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC asked about the expected future mix of subscription versus direct purchase deals, the costs and traction of the new certified pre-owned program, and the drivers behind the adjusted gross margin guidance, including how the shift to in-house fulfillment impacts long-term ARR.

Answer

CFO Chris Kutsor explained the sales mix will shift towards more subscription long-term but can fluctuate quarterly based on large orders. CEO John Kedzierski introduced the "Evolve Flex" certified pre-owned program, noting it has its first orders. Regarding margins, Kutsor and Kedzierski clarified the shift to direct purchase has a near-term margin headwind but is a strategic choice that yields higher gross profit dollars and "substantially higher" long-term ARR, improving the business's net present value.

Jeremy Hamblin asked for details on customer expansions, specifically which verticals are driving the growth. He also inquired about inbound interest related to a new California law requiring weapons detection in hospitals, the expected gross margin profile for the Gen 2 Express product, and the company's CapEx expectations for 2025.

Answer

CEO John Kedzierski confirmed that expansions are coming from the existing Express installed base but did not specify verticals. He noted the company is actively engaging with California customers regarding the new hospital safety legislation, viewing it as a positive market indicator. On margins, he reiterated that they should remain consistent, with some potential headwinds from a mix shift towards full subscriptions. Executive Brian Norris provided a CapEx forecast of $20 million to $25 million for the year.

Jeremy Hamblin from Craig-Hallum Capital Group inquired about inbound interest following the NYC subway trial, cash flow and inventory management, the expected timing for cash to bottom out, the year-end mix of distributor versus subscription deals, and the reason for a recent jump in G&A expenses.

Answer

President and CEO Peter George confirmed the NYC deployment is driving inbound interest from other cities. CFO Mark Donohue addressed financials, projecting cash levels to bottom out around $60 million before reaching adjusted EBITDA profitability in Q2 2025. He noted the distribution model mix exceeded 40% in Q2 and is targeted for 50% by Q4. Donohue attributed the G&A increase primarily to reserves for legal settlements.

Asked about franchisee profitability compared to company stores, the quarterly cadence of the same-store sales guidance, the expected impact of commodity inflation on cost of sales, and the company's targets and timeline for debt reduction and refinancing.

Answer

Executives confirmed that franchisees have always been strong operators and the company is now closing the performance gap. The Q3/Q4 sales guidance split is directionally correct but could change with new initiatives. Commodity headwinds (beef, poultry) are expected to be $2-3M, pushing COGS into the 24% range. There is no fixed debt target, as it depends on refinancing negotiations, with a goal to complete a refinancing in 2026.

Jeremy Hamblin asked about franchisee profitability relative to company-owned stores, the expected cadence of same-store sales given tougher Q4 comps, the magnitude of commodity cost pressures, and the company's target debt level and refinancing timeline.

Answer

President and CEO Dave Pace confirmed that franchisees are historically strong operators and that the company is closing the performance gap. He stated the goal is to refinance the company's debt in 2026, with the optimal debt level depending on lender negotiations. CFO Todd Wilson projected a $2-3 million commodity headwind in H2 and noted that cost of goods would likely rise into the 24% range due to the 'Big Yum' value mix.

Inquired about quarter-to-date trends, the drivers of restaurant-level margin improvement, initiatives for the takeout business, and changes to the marketing strategy for 2025.

Answer

Executives reported a good start to the year, expecting about +3% same-store sales for Q1. The vast majority of margin improvement is expected from labor efficiencies, not COGS. For takeout, they are focused on digital initiatives and investing with third-party partners. The marketing budget is stable, with a new comprehensive approach being tested in three markets.

Jeremy Hamblin from Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC asked for an update on the Chicago RFP timeline, details on the NYPD sub-licensing financials, and the status of a delayed $2.5 million CrimeTracer transaction.

Answer

CEO Ralph Clark reported progress on the Chicago RFP, having advanced to the live demo phase in September, suggesting a decision may be approaching. CFO Alan Stewart detailed the NYPD sub-licensing financials, noting that while it adds costs, it eliminates a larger commission payment, resulting in significant net savings. Clark added that the large CrimeTracer deal, with an ARR of approximately $2.4 million, is conservatively expected in Q4 but they are working to close it in Q3.

Jeremy Hamblin asked for details on the SafePointe addressable market under California's AB 2975, its pricing relative to competitors, the outlook for international opportunities in markets like Brazil, and the drivers behind the recent increase in R&D spending.

Answer

Executive Ralph Clark estimated the California opportunity at ~4,000 lanes across ~400 hospitals and detailed the SafePointe pricing model of ~$20,000 per lane per year, which he believes offers a compelling total cost of ownership. He also expressed excitement for international growth, particularly in Latin America, with deals expected in late 2025 or early 2026. Executive Alan Stewart attributed the higher R&D costs to personnel and cloud services for AI modeling, primarily for SafePointe.

Jeremy Hamblin of Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC asked about the impact of patient traffic on the revised sales guidance, the potential for 'sticker shock' from price increases, the financial details of the recent 37-clinic refranchising deal, and the outlook for marketing spend.

Answer

CFO Scott Bowman confirmed the primary issue is new patient traffic, as conversion and attrition rates are stable. He detailed that the 37 refranchised clinics generated $11.2 million in gross proceeds, with $2.8 million used to buy back RD rights, resulting in net cash of approximately $8.3 million. CEO Sanjiv Razdan added that the company is pivoting its marketing message to focus on pain relief and exploring 'buy now, pay later' options to improve affordability and avoid sticker shock.

Jeremy Hamblin questioned the basis for the mid-single-digit same-store sales guidance, given tougher comparisons in the second half of the year. He also asked about the timeline for refining the dynamic pricing strategy, whether client purchasing behavior was shifting, and the cost of the recent franchisee convention.

Answer

Executive Sanjiv Razdan explained that the guidance is largely predicated on the rollout of dynamic pricing initiatives in the second half of the year. He noted that testing pricing changes takes a minimum of 2-3 months. Executive Jake Singleton added that about 85% of sales still come from recurring monthly products and they are not seeing defection from this model. He also confirmed the convention costs hit the Q2 sales and marketing line and were less than previous national events.

Jeremy Hamblin asked about year-to-date same-store sales trends relative to the full-year guidance, the valuation metrics for the refranchising deals, the drivers of increased sales and marketing costs, and the current breakdown of members on legacy versus standard pricing plans.

Answer

Executive Jake Singleton noted that year-to-date trends were consistent with Q4, though February was unusual. Regarding valuations, executives explained that bidders are using a franchise-centric adjusted EBITDA multiple, but specific details could not be shared during active negotiations. Jake Singleton attributed higher marketing costs to strategic media spend, a biennial conference, and new agency onboarding. He also stated that by the end of 2024, approximately 80% of members were on standard pricing, with 20% on legacy rates.

Jeremy Hamblin from Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC sought clarification on prior year demand comps for July and August, and asked for details on the strong Q2 SG&A and gross margin performance, as well as the outlook for these metrics.

Answer

Chief Marketing & eCommerce Officer Jennifer Porter confirmed that the prior year's comps were softer in July and August 2024. CFO Michael Lee addressed the second half outlook, stating that the gross margin will be impacted by an estimated $12 million in tariffs, primarily in H2. He also noted that SG&A will see increased investment, particularly in Q4, related to strategic initiatives like the new ERP system, with a lion's share of the planned $10 million spend occurring in the back half of the year.

Jeremy Hamblin from Craig-Hallum Capital Group asked about the performance of new showrooms amid softer demand trends and whether Arhaus is reconsidering its opening cadence for 2026 and beyond. He also followed up on the expected occupancy cost leverage for the remainder of 2025.

Answer

CEO John Reed affirmed the company's commitment to its long-term growth plan, stating there is no reason to slow down showroom openings for 2026-2027. He emphasized the company's strong cash position allows it to invest through cycles to capture market share. SVP of Finance Ryan Brody stated that while there might be slight occupancy deleverage for the full year, it will not be as pronounced as it was in Q1.

Jeremy Hamblin asked about the cadence and geography of 2025 showroom openings and how the company's core customer reacts to shifts in consumer confidence and stock market trends.

Answer

An executive mentioned a key opening in Pasadena, CA, and recent success in Florida, noting they open stores in great locations rather than just hitting a number. Jennifer Porter, CMO, stated that while historically their client was tied more to the stock market, she cautioned against relying on past patterns. She emphasized the company focuses on executing its strategy and uses daily showroom interactions as a leading indicator of demand.

Jeremy Hamblin asked for details on the implementation timeline for Arhaus's various system upgrades (planning, ERP, OMS) and for a breakdown of the associated strategic spending. He also questioned if the improved September demand was linked to a more promotional pricing presentation.

Answer

CFO Dawn Phillipson outlined that the planning software and manufacturing ERP are expected to launch in H1 2025, while other systems will be kicked off later. She noted the spend breakdown is being finalized. Regarding promotions, she attributed September's strength to their standard biannual sale but highlighted that improved trends continued into October, suggesting broader brand resonance beyond the event.

Jeremy Hamblin from Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC asked for a detailed breakdown of Q2 same-store sales, the cadence during the quarter, the menu innovation pipeline, and the outlook for food costs.

Answer

CFO Steven Cirulis provided the Q2 same-store sales breakdown: 3.2% total, comprising 1.1% traffic growth and 2.1% average check increase, with 2.7% gross price. He noted that sales accelerated through the quarter. CEO Bob Wright added that confidence for Q3 stems from growth across multiple channels and initiatives, including menu innovation and digital enhancements. Regarding food costs, Cirulis stated they expect benign inflation just under 2% in Q3 and slightly higher in Q4, with minimal exposure to proposed tariffs.

Jeremy Hamblin asked for color on the drivers of Potbelly's strong Q2 same-store sales guidance, which appears to outperform the industry despite tougher comparisons. He also inquired about the robust franchise development activity, with 40 new commitments in a challenging macroeconomic environment.

Answer

CEO Bob Wright attributed the sales momentum to a combination of successful menu innovation like the Prime Rib Steak Sandwich, a three-pronged value strategy including everyday value and digital promotions, and increasingly effective digital marketing. Regarding franchising, Wright explained that strong unit-level economics, year-over-year margin expansion, and the availability of exclusive development territories continue to attract high-quality franchisees who see the brand's positive trends and growth potential.

Jeremy Hamblin asked for more details on the Q1 2025 weather impact on comparable sales, the performance and opening cadence for new 2025 units, prototype construction costs, and the potential timing for new menu innovations.

Answer

CEO Robert Wright explained that despite significant weather impacts in January, the underlying business momentum is strong. He detailed that the 2025 unit opening cadence will be back-half weighted, similar to 2024, and that new units are performing in line with the portfolio average. Wright also noted that while prototype costs are generally on plan, some regions see pressure from contractor costs. He confirmed a pipeline of menu innovations is in development but declined to share specific timing for competitive reasons.

Jeremy Hamblin inquired about the cadence of same-store sales trends in Q3 and into Q4, requesting a breakdown of traffic, pricing, and mix. He also asked about the unit development outlook for 2025 and the company's refranchising strategy.

Answer

EVP & CFO Steven Cirulis detailed the Q3 same-store sales trend, noting acceleration in September that continued into Q4. He broke down the -1.8% comp into a 3.8% traffic decline and a 2% average check gain, with 4.4% price. President & CEO Robert Wright added that for 2025, the company already has more leases signed for new shops than will open in all of 2024, indicating strong momentum. He also stated that refranchising is not a 'need' and will be opportunistic rather than a primary driver for new development agreements.

Jeremy Hamblin of Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC asked about the future new unit development strategy, specifically the mix of infill markets, and what Independent Operators (IOs) are asking for now that major systems updates are progressing.

Answer

President and CEO Jason Potter stated that the new store mix will be around 50% or better for infill markets in the near term, with an aspiration to improve new store returns to over 30% over time. He noted that the number one request from IOs is the 'new arrival guide,' which is expected to roll out in the fall. He also clarified that the double-digit lift in meat and produce at test stores comes from a separate, new forecasting tool, not the arrival guide.

Jeremy Hamblin shifted focus to the United Grocery Outlet (UGO) acquisition, asking about its performance and the timeline for deeper integration.

Answer

CEO Jason Potter provided a concise update, stating that UGO is performing in line with expectations with growing sales. He set the timeline for further integration of the business for late 2026.

Jeremy Hamblin asked for quantification of the ongoing excess systems-related costs and for clarity on what portion of these costs will be temporary versus ongoing into 2025.

Answer

Management declined to quantify the specific dollar amount. However, Interim CFO Lindsay Gray provided context, attributing the higher SG&A to greater-than-expected system infrastructure costs and overlapping internal and external resources needed to stabilize and enhance the new systems. She described these costs as largely 'transitionary and temporary' but expects some to continue into 2025, hence the guidance to 'build towards' the 6% EBITDA margin target next year.

Jeremy Hamblin asked for the expected cadence of the 65 to 70 new store openings for the remainder of the fiscal year. He also questioned if the strong productivity of new units might prompt the company to consider accelerating its annual unit growth rate beyond the current 15% target.

Answer

CEO John Hazen outlined the cadence as 14 openings in Q1, 16 planned for Q2, and the remaining 35 to 40 in the second half of the year. CFO Jim Watkins affirmed that the company intends to stick with its 15% annual unit growth target to ensure high-quality locations and avoid straining operations, though it is something they continually evaluate.

Jeremy Hamblin of Craig-Hallum asked about the drivers of recent volatility in the e-commerce business and the outlook for its growth. He also inquired about the cadence of the 65 to 70 planned new store openings for the fiscal year.

Answer

CEO John Hazen explained that recent e-commerce performance was impacted by lapping a promotion from the prior year in April and a temporary systems upgrade at a major third-party drop-ship vendor. He emphasized that the core bootbarn.com business remains strong with double-digit comps. CFO Jim Watkins stated that 10-12 new stores would open in Q1, with the remainder spread evenly, and openings would be broad-based across new and existing markets.

Jeremy Hamblin sought confirmation on the pretax value of the CEO transition benefit and asked about future merchandising opportunities for fiscal 2026.

Answer

CFO Jim Watkins clarified the CEO transition benefit was a $6.7 million reversal of non-tax-deductible SG&A expense, a one-time event in Q3. Interim CEO John Hazen identified the biggest opportunity as applying the successful inventory and execution strategies from the holiday season more broadly, rather than chasing new product trends.

Jeremy Hamblin inquired about the historical impact of elections, the company's production exposure to Mexico, and the reasons for buying and occupancy cost deleverage on a strong comp.

Answer

Former CEO Jim Conroy recalled the 2016 election caused a disruption of a few comp points and noted about 25% of exclusive brands come from Mexico. He explained that occupancy deleverage is due to the lower sales volume of new stores relative to mature ones, which has a greater mathematical impact in a smaller sales quarter like Q2.

Jeremy Hamblin inquired about the same-store sales cadence during the third quarter, particularly the impact of the new reservation system and the return of IP collaborations in May. He also asked about the rationale for the significant sales guidance increase and the wage inflation trends affecting labor costs.

Answer

SVP Benjamin Porten confirmed sequential monthly improvement in comps, with May turning positive for both comps and traffic, driven by the reservation system rollout and a new IP campaign. CFO Jeff Uttz explained the guidance raise was due to increased confidence after a historically challenging period. Porten added that Q4 labor inflation is expected to be in the low-to-mid single digits, an improvement from Q2 and Q3, and that various operational initiatives are beginning to yield benefits.

Jeremy Hamblin sought clarification on the food basket's sourcing mix between domestic and overseas, the drivers of high single-digit wage pressure, and the expected cadence of new unit openings for the remainder of the fiscal year.

Answer

CFO Jeff Uttz declined to give specific sourcing numbers but confirmed a recent sell-side report's estimate was 'in the ballpark.' Hajime Uba, via interpreter Benjamin Porten, clarified that wage pressure is broad-based across markets due to statutory increases and competitive positioning, not a California-specific issue. He also stated that one more unit is scheduled for Q3 and they are comfortable with two openings in Q4.

Jeremy Hamblin asked about the drivers behind the Q1 comparable sales trends, specifically the improvement in menu mix, the monthly sales cadence, and the expected impact of not having an IP collaboration in Q2.

Answer

Hajime Uba, speaking through interpreter Benjamin Porten, attributed the strong Q1 performance to successful IP collaborations (One Piece and Pikmin) and a food-focused 'perfect pair' campaign that significantly boosted mix. He noted November was the strongest month. Benjamin Porten acknowledged that Q2 presents a more difficult comparison as the company laps a strong 'Peanuts' collaboration without a new one, shifting the focus to profitability and cost control for the quarter.

Jeremy Hamblin inquired about the drivers of the 'other operating cost' line item, particularly utilities and delivery fees, and the impact of a DoorDash promotion. He also asked for more detail on the timing and expected impact of upcoming technology initiatives and the nature of the $4.7 million litigation expense.

Answer

CFO Jeff Uttz attributed the increase in other costs to inflation in utilities, software licenses, and repair services, noting the company is using software to optimize vendor pricing. Benjamin Porten clarified the delivery cost was from a non-recurring promotional campaign with DoorDash. Mr. Porten detailed that the new reservation system, expected in early spring, could save up to 50 basis points on labor, which is considered upside to their current plan. Mr. Uttz described the litigation expense as related to typical wage and hour claims common in the restaurant industry.

Jeremy Hamblin inquired about Q2 same-store sales expectations amid the current consumer environment, the potential impact timeline for new products like Fresca wraps and quesadillas, and the effect of kitchen equipment investments on labor costs, including a clarification on wage inflation forecasts for the remainder of the year.

Answer

CEO Elizabeth Williams acknowledged the real consumer pullback is expected to continue into Q2 but emphasized focusing on controllable factors like the upcoming brand relaunch and value-oriented innovation with the new quesadilla. Williams noted that new equipment like holding cabinets is already installed and improving efficiency. Executive Ira Fils clarified that wage inflation is expected to moderate to 2-2.5% for the rest of the year, bringing the full-year forecast to 4-5%.

Jeremy Hamblin inquired about the same-store sales outlook for Q2 amidst a challenging consumer environment, the potential impact timeline for new products like Fresca wraps and quesadillas, and the financial effect of kitchen equipment investments on labor costs and full-year wage inflation.

Answer

CEO Elizabeth Williams acknowledged the consumer pullback is expected to continue in Q2 but highlighted the upcoming brand relaunch and value-focused innovations like the quesadilla as key drivers. She noted that new products will launch sequentially, with Fresca items in May and quesadillas in late June. Williams also confirmed that kitchen equipment rollouts are largely complete in company stores, contributing to efficiency. CFO Ira Fils clarified that with 12% wage inflation in Q1, the forecast for the rest of the year is approximately 2% to 2.5%, assuming no further mandated increases in California.

Requested a detailed breakdown of Q4 revenue guidance by segment, clarification on Q4 marketing spend, details on potential asset sales (assets, buyers, timeline), context for October platform participant numbers, Q4 seasonality, and an update on the WeCompare platform.

Answer

For Q4, services and pet food revenues are expected to follow trends, while wellness is expected to rebound significantly. Marketing spend will likely be higher in Q4 but more efficient. The company is considering selling its Dog Food Advisor website and potentially its prescription business to pay down debt, with a decision expected by early Q1. The October platform participant number showed a similar upward trend to last year, though slightly slower. The WeCompare platform is on the back burner as the company focuses on its core business and profitability.

Inquired about Q3 demand trends, learnings from improved ARPU, specifics of the upcoming debt refinancing, scaling of G&A costs, and the infrastructure and marketing requirements for the WeCompare launch.

Answer

The company confirmed that the premium pet care and wellness sectors remain durable. The ARPU increase is driven by a higher mix of returning customers and a focus on cross-selling, a strategy they will continue. The debt refinancing is expected in H2, aiming to reduce the interest rate from 15.8% to around 10%. G&A costs are expected to scale efficiently and not in line with revenue growth. For WeCompare, most of the foundational work is done, and while some investment will be needed, it won't be significant as they will leverage their existing playbook.

Asked for quantification of the sales improvement in Q4, details on the premium menu mix, an explanation for the strong margin performance despite negative comps, and specifics on the Costco gift card program's redemption and impact on customer spending.

Answer

The executive confirmed the negative comp has improved by about 50% in Q4, driven by both traffic and mix. The premium menu mix is around 5% and growing. Strong margins are attributed to operational focus, stable commodity prices, and higher-margin sales from customers using Costco gift cards. The gift card redemption rate is currently under 50%, and while specific data on increased spending is being gathered, anecdotal evidence is strong.

Asked about the operational impact of mobile ordering, the year-over-year growth in F&B spend metrics, whether high-performing locations would be converted to the Lucky Strike brand, and the expected quarterly EBITDA drag from recent acquisitions.

Answer

Mobile ordering is improving labor efficiency, with server tablets being piloted to further boost F&B sales. F&B spend per bowl dollar increased from $0.60 to $0.80 year-over-year, with top locations nearing $1.10. These top-performing locations are candidates for re-bannering to Lucky Strike. The recent acquisitions are expected to be a drag of a few million dollars on EBITDA for each of the next two quarters.

Asked about Q4 cost expectations, the financial impact of the EEOC case resolution, and the company's stance on share repurchases at the current stock price.

Answer

Q4 will see seasonally lower payroll costs and declining SG&A, creating operating leverage. The EEOC resolution saves a few million dollars annually and removes a major distraction. The company would be an aggressive buyer of its stock at current levels but won't comment on the timing.

Asked for details on the accelerated Lucky Strike investment, updates on technology initiatives like the website and Moneybowl, and the potential impact of the Olympics.

Answer

The Lucky Strike investment will drive both revenue (adding lanes/arcades) and cost savings, with the goal of raising its margins. The Moneybowl app is being relaunched as a new loyalty program this summer. The company does not expect the Olympics to impact business and is instead focused on leveraging its ownership of the PBA for media exposure and customer engagement.

Jeremy Hamblin of Craig-Hallum inquired about the decline in USU unit's bookings value, progress on improving NCLEX exam scores in Arizona, and the outlook for instructional and marketing costs amid the Atlanta campus launch and cash management priorities.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Michael Mathews clarified that the USU bookings decline was due to a deliberate $1 million sequential reduction in marketing spend, not a change in ARPU or LTV. Regarding NCLEX scores, he noted that while he cannot share intra-quarter data, significant curriculum and coaching improvements have been implemented, giving high confidence for new campuses. CFO Matt LaVay added that while specific guidance on future costs is not being provided, any plan will ensure adequate cash to reach breakeven.