Joe Moore

Joe Moore asked about the MI455 ramp, specifically if it would be 100% rack-based or include an 8-way server business, and clarified the revenue recognition timing for shipments to rack vendors.

Answer

Dr. Lisa Su, Chairman and CEO, AMD, confirmed that while there are multiple MI450 series variants, the vast majority of 2026 revenue will come from rack-scale solutions. She also stated that revenue will be recognized when shipped to the rack builder.

Joe Moore asked whether the MI455 ramp would be entirely rack-based or include an 8-way server business, and clarified the revenue recognition policy for shipments to rack vendors. He followed up by asking about potential risks in ramping silicon into racks and whether AMD has taken steps like pre-building racks to mitigate issues.

Answer

Dr. Lisa Su, Chairman and CEO, confirmed that while MI450 series has multiple variants, including an 8-way GPU form factor, the vast majority for 2026 will be rack-scale solutions, with revenue recognized upon shipment to the rack builder. She stated that development for both MI450 series and the Helios rack is progressing well and on track for a second-half launch, with extensive testing and customer input helping to mitigate risks.

Joe Moore asked about AMD's readiness to ship MI308 products if regulatory relief allows, and the potential impact this could have. He also inquired whether AMD has existing product inventory to support that market or if inventory would need to be rebuilt.

Answer

Lisa Su, Chair and CEO of AMD, described the MI308 situation as dynamic, which led to its exclusion from the Q4 guidance. She acknowledged receiving some licenses and is working with customers to assess demand and opportunity, promising updates in the coming months. She confirmed having some work-in-process inventory for MI308 but would need to evaluate how demand shapes up.

Joe Moore asked about AMD's posture regarding MI308 shipments to China, specifically if there's readiness to ship if regulatory relief occurs, and the potential swing factor for revenue. He also questioned if AMD has sufficient product inventory to support that market or if inventory would need to be rebuilt.

Answer

Dr. Lisa Su, Chair and CEO, described the MI308 situation as dynamic, noting that no MI308 revenue was included in the Q4 guidance. She confirmed receiving some licenses and is working with customers on demand, promising an update in the coming months. Dr. Su added that AMD has some work in process for MI308, but product availability would depend on how the demand environment shapes up.

Joe Moore followed up by asking about any regional differences in NXP's automotive business, specifically concerns about China demand.

Answer

Rafael Sotomayor, President and CEO, stated that NXP does not see anything particular to comment on regarding regional differences. He expects the automotive business to be within model for 2026, driven by strong execution of accelerated growth drivers.

Joe Moore asked about the impact of recent supply disruptions, such as Nexperia and DDR4 shortages, on NXP's auto business, specifically if they are causing weaker demand or prompting tier-ones to build inventory. He also inquired about any regional differences in auto demand, particularly concerns about China.

Answer

Rafael Sotomayor, President and CEO, stated that Nexperia has been a non-issue for NXP. While there is chatter about memory shortages, it has not impacted customer orders, though it is a concern for the second half of the year. He noted no particular regional differences to comment on for the auto business, expecting it to remain within model for 2026 with strong execution from accelerated growth drivers.

Joe Moore asked about automotive customers' inventory views, specifically if recent geopolitical issues (like Nexperia) are prompting them to hold more inventory, and if NXP sees any indications of this. He also questioned if potential shortages of other components could negatively impact automotive production.

Answer

President and CEO Rafael Sotomayor stated that current end customer inventory levels are insufficient for business continuity, but NXP has not observed restocking by direct customers, who remain conservative with working capital. CFO Bill Betz clarified that Nexperia issues do not directly impact NXP. Mr. Sotomayor added that NXP does not anticipate negative impacts on automotive production from other component shortages, as Nexperia-associated products are often second-sourced, and NXP's orders do not indicate production disruptions.

Joe Moore inquired about NXP's automotive customers' views on inventory, specifically if geopolitical issues are prompting them to hold more stock. He also asked if NXP foresees any negative impact on automotive production due to potential shortages of other components, such as those related to Nyxperia.

Answer

Rafael Sotomayor, President and CEO, stated that current end customer inventory levels are insufficient for business continuity, but direct customers are not restocking due to conservative working capital management. Bill Betz, CFO, added that NXP is not directly impacted by Nyxperia issues, and typical supply crisis signals like price increases are not observed. Mr. Sotomayor clarified that Nyxperia-associated products are second-sourceable, and NXP's orders do not indicate any impact on automotive production.

Joe Moore inquired about the implications of Jensen Huang's comments on key-value cache (terabytes per GPU) for data center NAND, asking if the demand should be taken as straight math or if different implementations exist.

Answer

David Goeckeler (Chairman and CEO) clarified that this demand is not yet included in current forecasts and represents a significant future opportunity. Initial estimates suggest roughly 75-100 additional exabytes for 2027, potentially doubling the following year. He underscored NAND's critical and scalable role in the evolving AI architecture.

Joe Moore asked about the implications of Jensen's comments on key-value cache (KV Cache) and terabytes per GPU for data center NAND demand, questioning if the projections are straightforward or subject to varied implementations. He also inquired about the current and future breakdown of Enterprise SSD opportunities between TLC and QLC technologies.

Answer

CEO David Goeckeler stated that KV Cache demand is not yet included in current forecasts, but initial estimates suggest significant additional demand of 75-100 exabytes in 2027, potentially doubling in 2028, underscoring NAND's central role in evolving AI architecture. Regarding Enterprise SSDs, he noted the market is predominantly TLC-tilted, especially for SanDisk, but the upcoming BiCS8 QLC 'Stargate' product, currently in qualification, is expected to begin shipping for revenue in the next couple of quarters, increasing the QLC mix.

Joe Moore asked for a characterization of the data center demand, specifically regarding the demand for QLC on the enterprise side and how BiCS8 technology enhances Sandisk's presence in that market. He also inquired about NAND fab utilization across the industry and any incremental supply from previously underutilized fabs impacting the 2026 outlook.

Answer

Chairman and CEO David Goeckeler explained that demand includes both compute enterprise SSDs (TLC, faster interface) and storage-class products (QLC, like the 128T drives under qualification). He highlighted BiCS8 QLC as energy-efficient and high-performing, expecting QLC to grow from 20% to 40% of Sandisk's business by the end of FY 2026. EVP and CFO Luis Visoso confirmed that Sandisk's fabs are running at 100% utilization, with inventories down. Goeckeler added that industry supply growth is projected at 8% for 2025 and 17% for 2026, servicing mid-teens demand, while unconstrained demand is higher.

Joe Moore asked for a characterization of the data center demand, specifically regarding the mix of QLC versus TLC products, and how BICS8 technology enhances SanDisk's presence in that market. He also inquired about current NAND fab utilization and any incremental supply from previously underutilized fabs.

Answer

Chairman and CEO David Goeckeler explained that demand exists for both compute-focused TLC enterprise SSDs and storage-class QLC products like the 128T drives currently under qualification. He noted that QLC is projected to grow significantly, from 20% to 40% of SanDisk's business by the end of fiscal year 2026, driven by the energy-efficient, high-performance BICS8 QLC node. EVP and CFO Luis Visoso confirmed that SanDisk's fabs are running at 100% utilization, pushing to produce as much as possible due to low inventory levels.

Joe Moore asked about changes in average selling prices (ASPs), like-for-like pricing negotiations, and customer behavior. He also inquired about the major customers in the robotics space, specifically if it includes traditional industrial robotics companies or is an entirely new market.

Answer

Mike Doogue, President and CEO, stated that the pricing environment for calendar year 2026 is more favorable than historical trends, with very low single-digit ASP reductions due to market dynamics. For robotics, he noted participation from a broad range of companies, including automotive players, major motor manufacturers, and industrial companies, indicating it's a dynamic space with room for various players.

Joe Moore asked about average selling prices (ASPs), specifically any changes in like-for-like pricing, negotiation dynamics, and customer behavior. He also inquired about the major customers in the robotics segment, asking if they are automotive customers, traditional industrial robotics companies, or an entirely new space.

Answer

President and CEO Mike Doogue stated that pricing dynamics remain consistent with prior calls, expecting very low single-digit ASP reductions for calendar year 2026, which is more favorable than historical trends due to competitor dynamics and tight supply. He noted that longer-term contracts still include some price declines. Regarding robotics customers, Mr. Doogue indicated it's 'all of the above,' including automotive players, major motor manufacturers, and broader industrial companies, all exploring the humanoid space. He emphasized Allegro's strategy to secure design wins with the market leaders in this dynamic and interesting space, where Allegro has high dollar content.

Joe Moore from Morgan Stanley asked about Intel's server prospects, including the timeframe for Granite Rapids and market share expectations, given the challenges with Diamond Rapids lacking symmetric multi-threading. He also inquired about Intel's ability to shift wafer mix towards data center from PC for the rest of the year, acknowledging continued supply constraints beyond Q1.

Answer

Lip-Bu Tan, CEO, stated that the Data Center and AI Group is centralized under Covert, focusing on the 16-channel Diamond Rapids and accelerating the introduction of Coral Rapids, which will reintroduce multi-threading. David Zinsner, CFO, confirmed that Intel is constrained and prioritizing mid-to-high-end client products while pushing excess supply to the data center to meet demand, which may lead to market share adjustments.

Joe Moore from Morgan Stanley inquired about Intel's server prospects, including the timeframe for Granite Rapids and expectations for market share given the simplified roadmap focusing on 16-channel Diamond Rapids and accelerating Coral Rapids with multi-threading. He also asked about the ability to shift wafer mix towards data center from PC amidst ongoing supply constraints.

Answer

CEO Lip-Bu Tan stated that the data center and AI businesses are centralized under a new leader, focusing on 16-channel Diamond Rapids and accelerating Coral Rapids, which will reintroduce multi-threading. CFO David Zinsner confirmed ongoing supply constraints, noting Intel is prioritizing internal wafer supply to data center and high-end client segments, which may lead to market share adjustments.

Joe Moore asked if the $21 million rack revenue run rate in the second half of 2026 is sustainable beyond that period, inquiring whether Broadcom will continue selling full systems and what percentage of the 18-month backlog currently comprises full systems.

Answer

Hock Tan (President and CEO) responded that the sustainability of the rack revenue run rate beyond 18 months depends on customer compute capacity needs, which is speculative. He indicated that the current demand reflects what Broadcom is seeing over that period.

Joe Moore asked about the sustainability of the $21 million rack revenue run rate beyond the second half of 2026 and whether this type of business might shift over time, trying to understand the percentage of the 18-month backlog that constitutes full systems.

Answer

Hock Tan (President and CEO, Broadcom) responded that the sustainability of the rack revenue run rate depends on the compute capacity needed by customers beyond 18 months, which is difficult to predict precisely. He indicated that if demand continues, the run rate could grow even larger.

Joe Moore questioned Ambarella's gross margin strategy, specifically if the company would accept lower gross margins for growth in consumer markets, and the focus on average selling price (ASP) versus gross profit dollar per device. He also expressed enthusiasm for the drone market, asking about new elements driving higher content and the potential for delivery and industrial drones as a significant category.

Answer

Louis Gerhardy, VP Corporate Development, explained that ASP is primarily a function of technology and features. While the long-term gross margin goal is 59-62%, the company is open to margins outside this range on a case-by-case basis for consumer markets depending on volume. CEO Fermi Wang stated that Ambarella re-entered the drone market due to an open U.S. market and their differentiated video technology. He highlighted the future need for powerful chips for autonomous (Level 3+) drones, leveraging their autonomous driving investments, and sees growing opportunities in both consumer video capture and the commercial drone sector.

Joe Moore inquired about Ambarella's gross margin strategy, specifically asking if the company would consider accepting lower gross margins in certain consumer markets to capture growth, and how this balances with the focus on increasing average selling price (ASP) and gross profit per device. He also asked about the renewed enthusiasm for the drone market, inquiring about new elements that could drive higher content for Ambarella over time, particularly in delivery and industrial drones, and their potential as a significant future category.

Answer

Louis Gerhardy, VP of Corporate Development, explained that ASP increases are driven by advanced technology and features. He stated that while the long-term corporate gross margin goal is 59-62%, the company is open to gross margins outside this range for high-volume consumer opportunities on a case-by-case basis. CEO Fermi Wang explained Ambarella's return to the drone market, citing geopolitical shifts opening the U.S. market and the suitability of their panorama camera technology. He highlighted the future need for powerful chips combining video processing and AI for autonomous (Level 3/4) drones, leveraging their autonomous driving investments, and noted that while consumer video capture is current, commercial drone opportunities are expected to drive future growth.

Joe Moore asked for clarification on the automotive segment's better-than-expected Q4 performance, inquiring about potential pull-forwards and current market activity.

Answer

CFO Richard Puccio attributed auto's strength to double-digit CAGR, secular content gains in ADAS and infotainment, and significant share gains in China. He noted the market's resilience and Q4 results being seasonal, with normal bookings, but maintained caution for Q1 due to tariff and volatility uncertainties, while still expecting a strong FY26.

Shane on behalf of Joe Moore asked about customer orders and pricing discussions for growth areas in Automotive (A2B, GMSL) versus the rest of the auto business.

Answer

CFO Rich Puccio stated that pricing has been stable and as expected, with ADI commanding premium ASPs for high-performance parts. Executive Michael Lucarelli added that the growth areas (GMSL, A2B, etc.) comprise half of auto revenue and grew over 10% in fiscal 2024, while the other half was down about 10%.

Joe Moore asked for assistance in triangulating where actual market demand/consumption levels currently stand, given that bookings are good but revenue is half of its peak, and then inquired about Microchip's hyperscale cloud relationships for data center products, specifically if they involve partnerships for custom ASIC development or if Microchip focuses on understanding workloads.

Answer

President and CEO Steve Sanghi stated he could not provide an exact consumption level, acknowledging it's between the peak and current levels, but noted the recovery has been slower than expected due to various market curves. Corporate VP of Data Center Solutions Business Unit Brian McCarson explained that Microchip has active engagements with all hyperscalers and OEMs but focuses on understanding workloads and building competitive features rather than custom ASIC products, as demonstrated by their 3nm Gen 6 PCIe switch.

Joe Moore inquired about the automotive market by region, specifically asking about different behaviors observed and the health of the China EV market amidst recent volatility. He also questioned why the Nexperia situation isn't a bigger deal for ON Semiconductor, given the anxiety expressed by Tier 1 auto suppliers, and if it should be a catalyst for inventory building.

Answer

Hassane El-Khoury, President, CEO, and Director, ON Semiconductor, acknowledged expected adjustments in the China EV market due to consolidation, but emphasized ON Semiconductor's customer diversification strategy across top OEMs and emerging brands to de-risk lumpiness and maintain market share. Regarding Nexperia, Mr. El-Khoury stated that inventory levels are critically low, and any supply chain disruption will cause a chain reaction, underscoring the need for a replenishment cycle and safety stock, a lesson learned from COVID.

Joe Moore inquired about regional behaviors in the automotive market, particularly the health of the China EV market. He also questioned why the Nexperia situation isn't a bigger deal for ON and why tier-one suppliers aren't building inventory in response.

Answer

Hassane El-Khoury, President and CEO, explained that ON's customer diversification strategy in China EV is effectively de-risking market lumpiness amidst adjustments and consolidation. Regarding Nexperia, Hassane reiterated that inventory levels are critically low, and any supply chain disruption will cause a chain reaction, emphasizing the need for a replenishment cycle and safety stock, a lesson learned from COVID.

Joe Moore asked about the overall cyclical environment for the OSAT business, specifically if customers are concerned about potential tightness and any impact on like-for-like pricing. He also questioned if the strength in the smartphone business indicated any pull-forward or tariff-related factors.

Answer

CEO Giel Rutten noted pockets of tightness in advanced packaging (e.g., flip chip, wafer-level packaging) where lines are filling up, and some limitations in areas like substrates. Regarding smartphones, he stated it was difficult to predict next year's market but reconfirmed Amkor's strong footprint in premium-tier Android and iOS, with increased evaluation of next-generation products for AI functionality.

Joe Moore asked about Micron's HBM market share aspirations for calendar 2026, specifically if the company aims to exceed its DRAM supply share. He also questioned whether HBM gross margins would remain higher than non-HBM DRAM, and if current HBM pricing lock-ins could disadvantage Micron if DDR5 prices rise rapidly.

Answer

Sanjay Mehrotra, Chairman, President, and CEO, stated that Micron expects to achieve HBM share in the vicinity of its DRAM supply share by calendar Q3 2025 and higher HBM share in calendar 2026 compared to 2025, treating HBM as a robust portfolio component focused on ROI. Sumit Sadana, Chief Business Officer, explained that HBM's long lead times and stable pricing lead to higher through-cycle ROI, and while non-HBM DRAM profitability might occasionally exceed HBM, this would indicate an exceptionally healthy industry.

Joe Moore asked about Micron's HBM market share aspirations for calendar 2026, questioning if the company aims to exceed its general DRAM share. He also inquired about HBM gross margins relative to non-HBM DRAM and whether HBM's long-term pricing lock-in could be disadvantageous if DDR5 prices rise rapidly.

Answer

Sanjay Mehrotra, Chairman, President, and CEO, stated that Micron expects to achieve HBM share in the vicinity of its DRAM supply share by calendar Q3 2025 and higher HBM share for the full calendar year 2026, managing HBM for ROI and competitive advantage. Sumit Sadana, EVP and Chief Business Officer, explained that HBM's long lead times and stable pricing ensure higher through-cycle ROI, viewing any potential for non-HBM DRAM profitability to exceed HBM as a positive indicator of overall industry health.

Joe Moore of Morgan Stanley asked for more details on the CopperEdge outlook, including confidence in broader adoption and the types of projects underway with hyperscale customers. He also questioned if there were any supply constraints for 1.6T products.

Answer

CEO Hong Ho stated that CopperEdge is seeing strong traction with over 20 ecosystem customers for both scale-up and scale-out applications, with high-volume ramps at hyperscalers expected in Q4 2025 or early 2026. For 1.6T products, he clarified that significant volume demand is not expected until 2026, aligned with switch availability, and confirmed Semtech is not currently facing any supply constraints.

Joe Moore asked about the company's priorities for growing its diversified business, specifically the balance between organic and inorganic strategies, and the feasibility of M&A in the current market.

Answer

CEO Philip Brace stated that Skyworks has the financial 'firepower' to pursue both organic investments and M&A. He noted his focus for M&A will be on strategic fit and shareholder value. While acknowledging the M&A environment is complex, he confirmed it is an area he will be spending time on.