Joel Jackson • BMO Capital Markets

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Bruce Bodine, CEO, President & Director, clarified that while Mosaic does not provide quarterly guidance on this specific line item, the costs are not expected to repeat at Q2 levels. He provided context that normalized annualized turnaround costs for the phosphates segment are typically in the $100-$110 million range. Luciano Pires, EVP & CFO, also directed investors to historical data provided in the earnings presentation.

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EVP, Commercial Jenny Wang acknowledged that Belarusian shipment reductions haven't materialized as announced. However, she highlighted that production cuts from China and Chile, combined with lower imports, have driven Chinese port inventories to critically low levels, creating a favorable setup for future contract negotiations.

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Bruce Bodine, President and CEO, stated there is limited upside to maximum production from Mosaic, as key mines are already running at full rates. He identified the primary constraint as the Canadian supply chain, including rail and port capacity. EVP of Commercial Jenny Wang added that there is no significant spare production capacity available elsewhere in the world.

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Jenny Wang, EVP of Commercial, projected 2025 demand growth driven by affordability, with supply increases expected from Russia and Laos. President and CEO Bruce Bodine added that Mosaic's Hydrofloat project at Esterhazy will add 400,000 tons of capacity by mid-2025, bringing the Esterhazy and Belle Plaine mines to a combined 9 million-ton production capability. He noted the Colonsay mine would be used flexibly to meet additional demand or cover turnarounds.

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Mark Fones, CEO of the International Lithium Division, clarified that the 20,000-ton target will be met with spodumene sales heavily weighted to H2 and noted Kwinana's successful first production was due to extensive planning. Felipe Smith, Commercial VP of Lithium, added that Q3 lithium sales volumes and prices are expected to be higher than Q2, with realized prices closely tracking spot market levels.

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Mark Fones, CEO of the International Lithium Division, clarified that the 20,000-ton LCE guidance for 2025 is primarily from spodumene concentrate sales weighted to H2. He expressed confidence in the Kwinana ramp-up, citing rigorous planning and strong partnerships. Felipe Smith, Commercial VP of Lithium, noted that Q3 sales volumes and prices are expected to be higher than Q2, with realized prices closely tracking the spot market recovery.

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Felipe Smith, Senior Commercial VP of Lithium, stated that SQM has not updated its annual volume forecast due to market uncertainty but expects Q2 volumes to be similar to or slightly lower than Q1. He declined to comment on specific confidential customer pricing mechanisms in China. Carlos Díaz Ortiz, General Manager of the Lithium Potassium Division, defended the expansion strategy, emphasizing SQM's confidence in long-term demand and its position as the industry's lowest-cost producer, viewing the current oversupply as a short-term issue.

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Felipe Smith, Senior Commercial VP of Lithium, stated that SQM has not updated its annual volume forecast due to market uncertainty but expects Q2 volumes to be similar to or slightly below Q1. He declined to comment on specific contract negotiations in China, citing confidentiality. Carlos Díaz Ortiz, General Manager of the Lithium Potassium Division, defended the expansion strategy, emphasizing SQM's low-cost leadership and confidence in long-term demand despite the short-term oversupply.

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EVP & COO Christopher Bohn clarified the report was incorrect and there were no operational issues. He explained that strong demand led to extremely low urea inventory (2,000 tons vs. 7,500 tons/day production). The team made a management decision to pause loading over a weekend to rebuild inventory for more seamless and safe operations.

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EVP Bert Frost described the spring market as very positive with a strong order book, driven by low inventories and strong demand, which he expects to continue into Q3. CEO Tony Will addressed the project risk, explaining that Blue Point will use modular construction with large components built overseas on a fixed-price, lump-sum turnkey basis to dramatically reduce on-site labor and protect against inflation.

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EVP Bert Frost stated that the company has been more opportunistic, hedging front-month gas for commitments and weather volatility. CEO W. Will added that the EBITDA grid is a heuristic based on the prior year's actual product price differentials and cost structure, which included heavy Q1 maintenance in 2024, as noted by EVP & COO Christopher Bohn.

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EVP Bert Frost explained that sales patterns vary yearly and the Q4 order book is healthy. CEO Tony Will confirmed the project's estimated $4 billion cost is reasonable and that it can generate a solid return based on traditional ammonia demand and 45Q credits alone, given the tightening global market. EVP & COO Christopher Bohn added that potential partners are comfortable with these capital parameters.

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President & CEO Ken Seitz agreed that an open fall application window (good weather) is the primary determinant for fall demand, where they expect volumes to be up 5% from last year's compressed season. Regarding Brazil, Seitz stated the company's improvement plan is on track to achieve breakeven or slightly positive EBITDA in 2025 and that he expects this positive trend to continue into 2026, market conditions permitting.

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President and CEO Kenneth Seitz confirmed the outlook has strengthened. He cited robust demand across all fertilizer products, noting that global potash supply is constrained, leading to price increases in every market. Seitz highlighted that Nutrien has raised its domestic potash price three times since the winter fill program and that Canpotex is fully committed through Q2, signaling a constructive view for the rest of the year.

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CEO Kenneth Seitz highlighted the significant cost advantage of North American gas over European prices. Executive Trevor Williams explained the gas forecast, attributing recent high prices to extreme weather but expecting normalization later in the year. Executive Christopher Reynolds addressed the ammonia market, acknowledging a recent price decline due to a weak fall application season and new supply prospects. However, he noted that unapplied ammonia will likely boost demand for urea and UAN, and the overall nitrogen market remains tight.

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CEO Kenneth Seitz reaffirmed Nutrien's commitment to its 2026 targets. He attributed the near-term guidance cut primarily to a slower-than-expected market stabilization in Brazil and, to a lesser extent, a wet spring in North America that delayed applications. He emphasized that a clear margin improvement plan is in place for Brazil and that the long-term growth strategy remains intact.

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EVP & CFO David Johnson attributed the higher cash flow guidance to increased earnings and lower cash taxes from recent legislation. CEO Chuck Magro asserted there was no pull-forward from 2026, stating that performance is on track with the company's long-term framework, driven by growth platforms and strong execution on cost savings.

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CEO Chuck Magro stated that the strong Q1 performance has derisked the second half compared to the original February guidance. He identified Crop Protection (CP) pricing, now expected to be down low-single digits for the full year, as a key variable that is already factored into the current guidance range. CFO David Johnson added that the first half is now expected to be up 4-5% versus the original flat expectation, and the second half still implies a significant 40% year-over-year EBITDA increase.

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CFO David Johnson stated that Corteva expects earnings growth to be weighted towards the second half of the year. He projected the first half to be up slightly versus the prior year, with a stronger year-over-year improvement in the back half. This is driven by Crop Protection pricing pressure being more pronounced in H1 and the benefits of lower seed costs in Brazil being realized in Q4.

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CEO Chuck Magro stated that this is an early look at 2025 and that deflation represents about half of the $600 million in gross benefits from controllables. He emphasized that seed cost deflation is a three-year journey (2025-2027) that is just beginning. CFO David Johnson confirmed that the benefits are roughly split between productivity actions and cost deflation.

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President, CEO & Director Rich Sumner confirmed that the G3, Beaumont, and Natgasoline assets are all operating at high rates. He clarified the $50 million EBITDA guidance reduction is entirely due to a lower production forecast for New Zealand (down 600,000 tonnes) and is unrelated to the OCI acquisition's performance.

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Executive Rich Sumner expressed high confidence in the G3 plant's sustained reliability, noting a recent smooth start-up with new, validated conditions. On the OCI assets, he said more details would be available post-closing but noted they recently completed turnarounds. Regarding pricing, he was hesitant to confirm a specific discount rate, instead emphasizing the premium realized over China spot prices.

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President and CEO Rich Sumner explained that the Q4 inventory build was of produced methanol, not an overall inventory increase, and that Q1 sales should normalize closer to Q4's higher production levels. He added that at current pricing, Q1 free cash flow could exceed $150 million, significantly accelerating the deleveraging timeline ahead of the OCI acquisition closing.

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President and CEO Rich Sumner expressed confidence in the 7 million tonne guidance. He stated that insurance proceeds from the Egypt repair are expected in Q3 but are not included in guidance. Regarding capital allocation, the top priority is repaying the $300 million bond in December, after which share repurchases will be considered.

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EVP and CFO Andrew Sandifer explained that the GSS business was a collection of product lines across geographies, making it more difficult to carve out, unlike the discrete India commercial unit. He added that operating a business for sale involves different decisions than long-term ownership, making forecasts unreliable. Chairman and CEO Pierre Brondeau simplified the impact, stating it's a removal of ~$70 million in H2 sales with a breakeven EBITDA effect, leaving core guidance intact and providing a clearer view of go-forward earnings.

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CEO Pierre Brondeau expressed 'very high' confidence, citing three key drivers: strong, known demand for new products; a new direct-to-grower route to market in Brazil; and a mathematical $50 million EBITDA uplift from the absence of a prior-year negative variance. He emphasized that these factors are largely within FMC's control and supported by a much healthier channel inventory position entering H2.

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Pierre Brondeau, Chairman and CEO, confirmed the company still anticipates approximately 6% revenue growth in 2025, though the pricing environment remains uncertain. He noted that cost savings are now expected to be at the higher end of the prior range, trending closer to $200 million.

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CEO Kent Masters projected that initial volumes from Greenbushes would likely be seen in early 2026. He affirmed the strategic value of Kings Mountain and expressed encouragement about the U.S. government's focus on critical minerals, noting Albemarle has been in discussions about the need for public-private partnerships.

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CEO Jerry Masters asserted that Albemarle's contracts are holding as expected, though they evolve over time. He acknowledged that the supply side is difficult to predict, with some unprofitable assets remaining online longer than expected, but reiterated that long-term prices must rise to incentivize needed investment.

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CEO Jerry Masters explained that contracts are typically adjusted over time rather than having hard renewal dates and noted the portfolio has become more spot-oriented due to growth in China. He stated that Albemarle's strategy is to focus on its own cost structure to ensure competitiveness at the bottom of the cycle, allowing it to pivot to growth when the market recovers.

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CEO Kent Masters agreed that more supply needs to come offline for a price recovery and expects it will if low prices persist. On asset sales, he confirmed that the Ketjen business remains non-core and for sale. He explicitly refuted rumors about selling the Greenbushes stake, stating, 'Greenbushes, not something that we're thinking about selling.'

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Damon Audia, SVP & CFO, noted that while it's too early for a 2025 outlook, European markets are historically less volatile. Greg Peterson, an executive, added that Q4 European margins are expected to rebound to first-half levels. Peterson also clarified the market outlook, stating they are now at the high end of the forecasted decline range and that the South American outlook is based on wholesale data, which differs from retail.

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CEO and Co-Chairperson Ana Cabral Gardner characterized the land issue as a 'non-issue' stemming from a personal matter that does not affect Phase 2 operations. Executive Matthew DeYoe explained that SG&A is elevated because the company is building a scalable platform for future growth, which will provide operating leverage as production doubles. Ana Cabral Gardner added that Phase 2 is proceeding regardless of market prices due to its high capital efficiency, though the construction is being 'paced' over 12-15 months to manage liquidity, unlike the 'raced' approach for Phase 1.

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CEO Ana Cabral Gardner stated there is no land dispute affecting Phase 2, dismissing it as a non-issue unrelated to the project's ore body. Executive Matthew DeYoe addressed SG&A, explaining that current spending is building a platform for future growth and that per-ton costs will decrease significantly as production scales. Ana Cabral Gardner added that Phase 2 is proceeding due to its high capital efficiency, but on a 'paced' 12-month timeline to manage costs, unlike the 'raced' approach for Phase 1.

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