John Blackledge

John Blackledge asked about the potential for a rebound in the home category throughout the year and how Wayfair is thinking about the risk to advertising revenue streams for e-commerce marketplaces as agent commerce ramps up.

Answer

Niraj Shah, Co-founder, Chief Executive Officer, and Co-chairman, stated that predicting a housing market recovery is difficult, likely a slow burn, and Wayfair's strategy is not premised on it. Instead, the company focuses on taking market share through its initiatives regardless of macro conditions. Regarding agent commerce, Niraj Shah explained that the impact on advertising revenue depends on the type of goods. For non-commodity items like home goods, which require more browsing and exploration, traffic is expected to still move downstream to retailer platforms, preserving opportunities for advertising units. He likened home goods to fashion, where video and detailed product stories are highly relevant.

John Blackledge asked about the potential for a rebound in the home category throughout the year and how Wayfair views the risk to advertising revenue streams for e-commerce marketplaces as agent commerce ramps up.

Answer

Niraj Shah, Co-founder, Chief Executive Officer, and Co-chairman, described the housing market recovery as a 'slow burn' and not a core premise for Wayfair's strategy, which focuses on gaining market share through its initiatives irrespective of macro conditions. Kate Gulliver, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Administrative Officer, concurred, emphasizing Wayfair's self-measures and expanding share spread. On agent commerce, Niraj Shah differentiated between commodity goods (where transactions might happen upstream, impacting ad revenue) and non-commodity, browsable items like home goods. He argued that for home, customers still engage in exploration, allowing ad units to remain relevant as traffic moves downstream to retailers, and Wayfair's ad product roadmap is well-suited for this customer curiosity.

John Blackledge asked about Q4 2025 rides growth relative to expectations, how to interpret rides growth in the context of the Q1 2026 gross bookings guide, and if heavy promotional activity from Q4 extended into Q1 2026.

Answer

CEO David Risher stated Lyft is a disciplined operator focused on top and bottom line, not marginal rides from promotional 'gimmickry.' He noted no consumer softness in Q4 and highlighted record active riders and strong Q1 setup, citing Super Bowl performance with 15% more rides, 20% lower surge pricing, and better ETAs year-over-year. CFO Erin Brewer added that Q4 promotional activity was weighted to the back half, primarily lower end, with temporary effects, and expects Q1 gross bookings to grow faster than rides due to high-value modes and FREENOW.

John Blackledge asked about Lyft's Q4 2025 rides growth relative to expectations, the context for the Q1 2026 Gross Bookings guide, and whether the heavy promotional activity from Q4 extended into Q1 2026.

Answer

CEO David Risher stated that Lyft is a disciplined operator focused on top and bottom line, navigating unexpected Q4 promotional activity without consumer softness, and achieving record Active Riders. He noted a strong Q1 setup, evidenced by 15% more rides, 20% lower surge pricing, and faster ETAs during the Super Bowl. CFO Erin Brewer confirmed heightened Q4 promotional activity was temporary and that Q1 Gross Bookings are expected to grow faster than rides due to high-value modes and FREENOW.

John Blackledge asked for the expected contribution from the Free Now acquisition to the Q3 gross bookings guidance and for an update on the most impactful partnerships driving growth.

Answer

CFO Erin Brewer clarified the Q3 guidance includes two months of Free Now during its seasonally lower period. CEO David Risher provided a detailed update on partnerships, including the new United Airlines deal, the successful refresh of the Chase offer, continued growth from DoorDash, and the launch of a new Business Rewards program. He noted that partnership-linked rides now account for 25% of total rides.

John Blackledge asked for color on the performance and expansion of the Canada business and requested an update on the revenue run rate and ad tech investments for Lyft Media.

Answer

CEO David Risher confirmed the Canada business is on track to double its ride volume year-over-year, with Toronto now being Lyft's sixth-largest market. For Lyft Media, he stated it is on track to meet its year-end run-rate goals, with a current focus on enhancing ad measurability for partners by leveraging Lyft's first-party data.

John Blackledge asked for a detailed explanation of People's 2026 EBITDA outlook, particularly the drivers behind the seemingly flat midpoint, and how IAC anticipates its free cash flow conversion from EBITDA for 2026.

Answer

Christopher Halpin, EVP, COO and CFO, IAC, clarified that People's 2025 adjusted EBITDA was $331 million (excluding lease gains and severance), comprising $315 million digital EBITDA and $16 million from print exceeding corporate expense. The 2026 guidance of $310 million-$340 million reflects mid-to-high single-digit digital EBITDA growth off $315 million, but is offset by a $15 million Google litigation expense hitting corporate, creating a $31 million net swing year-over-year. He guided to 50%+ EBITDA to free cash flow conversion for IAC in 2026, detailing CapEx ($20M-$30M), net interest expense (around $64M), minimal cash taxes, and normalizing working capital after prior year's lease buyouts and unfavorable timing.

John Blackledge asked Christopher Halpin to unpack People Inc's 2026 EBITDA outlook, which appeared flattish at the midpoint, and to explain the drivers. He also inquired about IAC's free cash flow conversion for 2026, given the provided EBITDA range.

Answer

Christopher Halpin, EVP, COO and CFO of IAC, clarified that People Inc's digital adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow mid-to-high single digits from $315 million in 2025. The seemingly flat overall EBITDA is due to a $15 million Google litigation expense hitting corporate, creating a $31 million net swing. For free cash flow, he outlined CapEx ($20-30 million), net interest expense ($64 million), minimal cash taxes, and normalizing working capital, guiding to 50%+ EBITDA to free cash flow conversion for IAC in 2026.

John Blackledge from TD Cowen Inc. asked about the expected trajectory of corporate costs for IAC into Q4 and 2026. He also inquired about the timing for slimming down IAC's assets and whether everything outside of People Inc. and MGM should be considered non-core.

Answer

Christopher Halpin, COO and CFO of IAC, stated that corporate costs are expected to go lower, with a current quarterly run rate of $22 million-$23 million, and projected to be in the mid-$80s range for next year, with continued rationalization. Barry Diller, Chairman and Senior Executive of IAC, confirmed that everything other than MGM and People Inc. is considered non-core. He indicated that they would divest these assets intelligently for good prices, expecting to generate approximately $1 billion in additional capital within three to six months.

John Blackledge asked about the trajectory of corporate costs into Q4 and 2026, and the timing and scope of slimming down IAC's assets, specifically if everything outside People Inc. and MGM is considered non-core.

Answer

Christopher Halpin, COO and CFO of IAC, stated that corporate costs are expected to go lower, with a quarterly run rate of $22-$23 million and a mid-$80s range for next year. Barry Diller, Chairman and Senior Executive of IAC, confirmed that everything outside of People Inc. and MGM is considered non-core, and divestitures are expected within three to six months, potentially generating around $1 billion in additional capital.

John Blackledge asked for more detail on the trajectory of People Inc.'s traffic sources, including on-platform sessions and off-platform views, and how these translate into revenue and margins. He also inquired about the specific drivers of Q2 digital revenue and the outlook for Q3.

Answer

People Inc. CEO Neil Vogel stated that on-platform sessions are expected to be flat to slightly up long-term, with continued strong growth in off-platform views. IAC CFO & COO Christopher Halpin added that both on- and off-platform revenues generate attractive, accretive margins. For Q2, Halpin noted 5% advertising growth and strong performance marketing, with a Q3 digital revenue growth forecast of 7-9% driven by improved monetization and continued strength in performance marketing and licensing.

John Blackledge asked for color on Dotdash Meredith's (DDM) Q1 digital revenue trends, the drivers behind the Q2 revenue guidance, and the mechanics of how DDM's cash flow becomes accessible to the IAC parent company.

Answer

Christopher Halpin, an IAC executive, explained that Q1 DDM digital ad growth was modest at 1% due to tough comps and timing issues, with overall 7% growth driven by strong licensing and performance marketing. For the Q2 guide of 7-9% growth, he cited stable traffic and solid performance marketing offset by soft programmatic pricing. Halpin also clarified that IAC gained access to DDM's cash after DDM's total leverage ratio fell below the 4x threshold required by its credit agreement.

John Blackledge inquired about the primary drivers for Dotdash Meredith's (DDM) Q4 revenue and EBITDA performance, the key factors influencing the 2025 guidance, and IAC's capital allocation strategy following the Angi spin and management transition.

Answer

Christopher Halpin, an IAC executive, attributed DDM's Q4 strength to a post-election ramp in traffic and ad spend, exceptional performance marketing growth of 22%, and strong licensing revenue. An attendee identified as Barry Diller, Senior Executive and Chairman, stated that he had previously 'frozen' capital returns to focus on business turnarounds but that this period has now ended. He indicated future capital allocation will be a mix of returning capital to shareholders and seeking new investment opportunities, with a focus on strengthening DDM.

John Blackledge asked about the drivers of Dotdash Meredith's (DDM) Q3 digital revenue outperformance, the reasoning for the softer Q4 guide, and the top-line growth outlook for 2025.

Answer

Executive Christopher Halpin attributed Q3's 16% digital revenue growth to strong traffic (sessions +14%) and monetization (programmatic rates +30%), despite weakness in Performance Marketing. For Q4, he cited a softer October due to election-related advertiser caution, leading to a mid-to-high single-digit growth guide. Looking to 2025, Halpin reiterated confidence in a baseline of 10% digital revenue growth for DDM, driven by a mix of traffic growth and improved monetization.

John Blackledge questioned if IAC was observing any signs of macroeconomic softness across its businesses. He also asked for the key drivers of Dotdash Meredith's expected Q3 digital revenue acceleration and the factors behind its strong Q2 margins and Q3 EBITDA guidance.

Answer

IAC CEO Joey Levin stated that IAC is not seeing significant macro weakness, highlighting a solid Prime Day for DDM commerce and a healthy ad pipeline. IAC Executive Christopher Halpin attributed DDM's Q2 margin strength to better-than-expected traffic and monetization. For Q3, he cited strong traffic, a solid ad market in key categories like health and retail, and recovery in weaker verticals as drivers for the positive outlook.

Logan Wally, on behalf of John Blackledge, inquired about the typical timeline for Hinge to achieve monetization in new markets, including reaching critical scale and shifting focus to revenue, and any initial insights from Mexico and Brazil applicable to upcoming Latin American launches.

Answer

CFO Steven Bailey stated that Hinge monetization in new markets, like Europe, takes time, with MAU growth preceding revenue. He noted that Europe is expected to contribute only $100 million in revenue in 2026, far below Tinder's regional performance, and similar timelines are expected for Latin America. CEO Spencer Rascoff added that Hinge's current new market rollouts benefit from a "1MG philosophy," ensuring greater coordination and collaboration across Match Group brands, particularly in Asia, which is a significant improvement over past approaches.

John Blackledge inquired about the expected trajectory for Tinder's paying users throughout the year and asked for more details on potential OpEx savings beyond the current restructuring.

Answer

CFO Steven Bailey responded that the focus is on improving user (MAU) trends, not specifically payers. He expects MAU and payer trends to continue declining at a stable rate this year until product innovations take effect. Regarding OpEx, he confirmed the company is now looking for further efficiencies across the entire cost base, with savings likely materializing in 2026. CEO Spencer Rascoff added that unifying marketing measurement across the portfolio is one example of a future OpEx savings opportunity.

Logan on for John Blackledge asked for an update on the outlook for the Emerging & Evergreen (E&E) segment to achieve positive top-line growth in the latter half of 2025 and which brands are driving this.

Answer

President and CFO Gary Swidler confirmed the expectation that moderating declines at evergreen brands and strong growth at emerging brands should allow the E&E segment to become a growth contributor. He highlighted demographically-focused apps like Chispa, BLK, and the recently acquired Salaams as key drivers, aided by a 'build once, deploy everywhere' strategy that improves margins.

John Blackledge asked for color on Hinge's Q4 revenue guidance, noting that the growth rate appeared to be decelerating more than anticipated.

Answer

CFO Gary Swidler explained that the perceived deceleration is due to a difficult year-over-year comparison, as Hinge launched its highly successful weekly subscription packages in Q4 of the prior year. He emphasized that underlying user growth and market share gains remain very strong.

John Blackledge inquired about Pinterest's strategy for diversifying its infrastructure beyond AWS, given the industry trend of companies shifting to multiple cloud vendors.

Answer

CEO Bill Ready stated that Pinterest views its infrastructure as strategic and considers AWS a fantastic partner. He emphasized constant assessment of the best infrastructure options, including LLMs, chip providers, and hyperscalers, especially in an AI-driven world, and benchmarking across multiple providers at each layer of the stack.

John Blackledge inquired about Pinterest's infrastructure strategy, specifically regarding potential diversification beyond AWS to other cloud platforms.

Answer

CEO Bill Ready stated that infrastructure and platform are strategic assets, and while AWS is a fantastic partner, Pinterest constantly assesses the best infrastructure options, including LLMs, chip providers, and hyperscalers, benchmarking across multiple providers in an evolving AI-driven world.

John Blackledge of TD Cowen asked how Pinterest is competing for and retaining top AI talent in an increasingly competitive market.

Answer

CEO Bill Ready outlined a three-pronged strategy: competitive compensation funded by the clear ROI of AI initiatives, a compelling mission focused on positive and responsible AI, and a unique 'sandbox' for engineers. He argued that Pinterest's mission and unique visual curation dataset help it 'punch above its weight' in attracting top talent who value more than just money.

John Blackledge of TD Cowen asked how Pinterest is competing for AI talent given the increasingly competitive market.

Answer

CEO Bill Ready explained that Pinterest competes on multiple fronts: competitive compensation tied to clear ROI, a strong mission focused on positivity and responsible AI, and offering a unique 'sandbox' for engineers. He noted the platform's scale of nearly 600 million users and its unique curation data make it a highly attractive place for top talent to work.

John Blackledge asked about the impact of macro volatility on brand-focused advertisers and whether the Performance+ suite helps integrate full-funnel campaigns.

Answer

CEO Bill Ready confirmed that Performance+ is key to delivering on the full-funnel promise. He highlighted that advertisers using both upper- and lower-funnel objectives see double the conversion rates, which allows CMOs to justify brand spend by tying it directly to performance outcomes, a crucial capability in uncertain economic times.

John Blackledge of TD Securities asked about the quarter-to-date advertising trends and the key factors contributing to the Q1 2025 revenue outlook.

Answer

CFO Julia Donnelly noted the Q1 guidance of 15-17% constant currency growth implies a sequential acceleration on a two-year stack basis. Key drivers include improved advertiser value from lower-funnel tools, which drove a 90% increase in clicks, and the steady adoption of Performance+. She also mentioned that the headwind from the food and beverage category is expected to lessen as the company begins to lap the initial softness.

John Blackledge inquired about Amazon's perspective on agentic commerce and how the company plans to serve customers who use AI agents to purchase goods on Amazon in the future.

Answer

CEO Andy Jassy expressed excitement about the long-term prospect of agentic commerce, believing it will benefit both customers and e-commerce by enhancing the online shopping experience, especially for discovery. He highlighted Amazon's internal efforts like Rufus, an AI-powered shopping assistant, and 'Buy for Me' features. Jassy also mentioned ongoing conversations and potential partnerships with third-party agents, acknowledging the need to improve the customer experience (personalization, accurate delivery/pricing) and establish a fair exchange of value. He believes agentic commerce will expand online shopping, which bodes well for Amazon due to its broad selection, value, and fast delivery.

John Blackledge inquired about Amazon's perspective on agentic commerce and how the company plans to serve customers using agents to purchase goods in the future.

Answer

CEO Andy Jassy expressed strong excitement for agentic commerce, viewing it as a 'game changer' for customers and e-commerce by enhancing the online shopping experience, especially for discovery. He highlighted Amazon's internal efforts like Rufus, an AI-powered shopping assistant with 250 million active customers and significant incremental sales, and 'Buy for Me.' Jassy also noted Amazon's openness to partnering with third-party agents, emphasizing the need to ensure a good customer experience with personalization, accurate delivery estimates, and correct pricing, believing agentic solutions will expand online shopping, benefiting Amazon due to its selection, value, and reliable delivery.

John Blackledge asked about the potential for further improvements in delivery speed and its effect on the everyday essentials business, as well as for more details on expected efficiencies from the inbound network.

Answer

CEO Andy Jassy stated that Amazon has 'not yet seen diminishing returns' from improving delivery speed, which drives more frequent purchases, especially for everyday essentials. Regarding the inbound network, he confirmed a recent 'significant architectural change' is still in its early days, and he expects to gain additional efficiencies and lower the cost to serve throughout the year as the new system is tuned and refined.

Speaking on behalf of John Blackledge, an analyst from TD Cowen asked how new features appeal to Gen Z users tired of traditional online dating and inquired about the key qualities that led to the hiring of the new CFO.

Answer

Founder & CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd explained that the quality-first strategy directly addresses Gen Z's pain points like endless swiping and safety concerns. She also highlighted Bumble for Friends (BFF) as a key offering for this demographic's desire for community. Regarding the new CFO, Kevin Cook, she stated he is a technology-first, product-minded finance leader with deep expertise to help navigate the company's return to growth and AI initiatives.

Logan, on for John Blackledge, asked for the puts and takes on the Q1 Bumble App guidance, particularly regarding payer conversion and any negative impacts from new safety features.

Answer

CFO Anuradha Subramanian reiterated the Q1 guidance, stating that the projected sequential decline in paying users (100k-120k) is a direct result of the ongoing work to strengthen the user ecosystem. This includes prioritizing user quality over quantity in the near term. She noted the strategy is to fix top-of-funnel and engagement first, with conversion and revenue to follow, and mentioned seeing encouraging 'green shoots' in recent data.

John Blackledge inquired about the expected mix of paying user growth versus ARPU growth within the 2025 revenue guidance and asked for color on Q1 trends. He also followed up by asking for details on the key investment areas impacting the 2025 margin outlook.

Answer

CFO Vanna Krantz explained that the guidance reflects what they have a clear line of sight to and that they expect continued growth in both payers and ARPU, similar to past performance. CEO George Arison added that they are focused on adding value to paid tiers. For the follow-up, Vanna Krantz specified that key investments will be in hiring for technology, AI, and data science to support the increasingly sophisticated product roadmap.

John Blackledge asked whether the weekly Unlimited tier is driving new payer conversion or cannibalizing existing subscribers, what the key drivers are for the sustained MAU growth, and where the company stands in addressing its legacy technical debt.

Answer

CFO Vanna Krantz confirmed the weekly Unlimited tier is driving higher conversion with pleasantly low cannibalization. She attributed MAU growth to macro trends, a better user experience from bug fixes, and new features. CEO George Arison added that future relationship-focused features could re-engage older cohorts. On technical debt, he detailed the significant backend work completed since 2020 and the recent 'bug bash' that resolved over 75% of accumulated bugs, improving app stability.