Vice President in Equity Research at Wells Fargo & Company/mn
John Kilichowski is a Vice President in Equity Research at Wells Fargo Securities, specializing in the coverage of publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) and healthcare-related companies. He closely follows firms such as Omega Healthcare, Essential Properties, Welltower, and W. P. Carey, and is noted for his analytical performance with a documented success rate of 46.67% and an average return of -1.8% on stock recommendations. Kilichowski has been with Wells Fargo since at least 2023, building his expertise within equity research following prior roles in the financial sector. He holds professional credentials consistent with his senior research position, including relevant industry licenses and corporate analyst coverage recognition.
John Kilichowski asked for an update on how the Net Operating Income (NOI) of Welltower's 2024 vintage senior housing acquisitions is performing relative to initial underwriting expectations.
CEO Shankh Mitra stated that, with the exception of Holiday, most 2024 vintage acquisitions, both individually and in aggregate, have performed in line with or higher than underwriting expectations. CIO Nikhil Chaudhri confirmed this assessment.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo asked for elaboration on Welltower's evolving technology strategy, noting the shift from using data science for capital allocation to applying operating technology to enhance the customer experience.
CEO Shankh Mitra described the goal of making Welltower both 'cam rich' (physical assets) and 'tech rich.' He outlined a holistic strategy to integrate data science, operational technology (WBS), enterprise software, and site-level hardware. Mitra stated he is now personally focused on this area and expects significant changes and new leadership hires in the coming months to drive this initiative.
John Kilichowski asked about the drivers of the 2026 guidance, specifically assumptions on cap rate compression (low and high end) and credit loss conservatism, questioning if it's general or due to specific tenants. He also asked how Essential Properties Realty Trust has outperformed on credit, particularly in migrating assets out of the sub-one-time coverage bucket, despite broader private credit market issues.
President and CEO Peter Mavoides stated that guidance is built targeting an AFFO per share range, with cap rate assumptions similar to last year (modest downtick, sticky cap rates, potentially mid to low sevens by year-end). Credit loss assumptions involve deep dives into specific assets and tenants, with an added unknown credit loss assumption, also consistent with last year. Head of Corporate Finance and Strategy Rob Salisbury added that timing of investment closings and capital markets activities are key drivers for the range. Mr. Mavoides attributed credit outperformance to strong same-store rent growth (1.6%), a focused investment strategy on service/experience-based industries, conservative asset basis, granular/fungible properties, and being the most secured creditor.
John Kilichowski asked about the drivers of the 2026 guidance, specifically the cap rate compression assumptions (low vs. high end) and any increased conservatism in credit loss assumptions, including specific tenants on the credit watch list. He also inquired about Essential Properties Realty Trust's outperformance on the credit side despite issues in BDCs and private credit.
Peter Mavoides, President and CEO, explained that the guide targets an AFFO per share range, with cap rate assumptions similar to last year (modest downtick, sticky on the way down, mid to low sevens by year-end). Credit loss assumptions are also similar, based on deep dives into specific assets/tenants, plus an unknown credit loss buffer. Rob Salisbury, Head of Corporate Finance and Strategy, added that the timing of investment closings and capital markets activities are major drivers of the range. Mr. Mavoides attributed credit outperformance to strong same-store rent growth (1.6%), a focused investment strategy on service/experience-based industries, conservative asset basis, and being the most secured creditor.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo inquired about any potential impact from tariffs on tenant performance and asked about the rationale for raising only the low end of the AFFO guidance range.
CEO Pete Mavoides confirmed no tariff impact, as over 90% of the portfolio is service-based and not exposed to tariffs on goods. CFO Mark Patten explained the guidance update was driven by strong investment volume and better-than-expected credit performance, which supported raising the bottom of the range, but the model did not justify an increase to the high end at this time.
John Kilichowski asked about Agree Realty's exposure to the auto sector, given recent distress in subprime lending, and whether any tenants are on a watchlist. He also inquired if the 7-Eleven developments represent a one-off or a larger, visible opportunity set.
President and CEO Joey Agree stated that subprime lending distress supports their auto parts thesis, focusing on the age of cars on the road and fungible real estate, not new car dealerships, and they partner with leading operators. He confirmed working with 7-Eleven in defined geographic territories with a pipeline of opportunities.
John Kilichowski inquired about Agree Realty's exposure to the auto sector amidst distress in subprime lending, asking if any tenants are currently on a watchlist. Kilichowski also asked about the nature of 7-Eleven developments, specifically if discussions are one-off or part of a larger opportunity set.
Joey Agree, President and CEO, explained that the subprime lending distress aligns with their thesis for auto parts retailers (O'Reilly's, AutoZone, Gerber Collision), focusing on the age of cars and real estate fungibility, not new car dealerships, confirming no tenants are on a watchlist. Agree confirmed that 7-Eleven developments are part of a larger opportunity set, working in defined geographic territories with a pipeline of future projects.
An associate for John Kilichowski at Wells Fargo asked about tenants' growth plans amid recent bankruptcies and if opportunities are arising from private capital's retreat.
CEO Joey Agree stated that the issue is a lack of available space, prompting retailers to creatively acquire leases in bankruptcies to fuel growth. He confirmed that the retreat of private and 1031 capital due to high rates is creating significant opportunities for Agree Realty across all its investment platforms.
Cheryl, on behalf of John Kilichowski at Wells Fargo, asked about emerging themes in tenants' growth plans and whether Agree Realty is seeing opportunities arise from private capital players exiting the market.
CEO Joey Agree explained that due to a lack of available space, retailers are creatively using bankruptcy auctions to acquire leases for growth. He confirmed that the retreat of private capital, driven by higher rates and a slow 1031 market, is creating significant opportunities for Agree Realty across all its platforms, highlighting the advantage of its "fortress balance sheet."
Sheryl, on behalf of John Kilachowski, asked why the AFFO per share guidance midpoint was maintained despite lower net investment volume and inquired about the future bad debt outlook following the resolution of several troubled properties.
CFO Pierre Revolt explained that strong performance in the first half of the year and the successful resolution of troubled assets provide confidence in the existing guidance. He added that with the major known issues resolved, future bad debt is expected to be minimal, reflecting a healthy underlying portfolio.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo inquired about the composition of CareTrust's $600 million investment pipeline, asking about the contribution from UK assets and the percentage of SHOP (Seniors Housing Operating Portfolio) deals. He also asked about the strategic criteria for potential SHOP acquisitions, such as asset class and market tier.
Chief Investment Officer James Callister explained that the pipeline is predominantly composed of U.S. skilled nursing facilities, with the remainder being a mix of U.S. seniors housing and UK care homes. He confirmed there is a SHOP component and stated that CareTrust is open to various deal types, prioritizing the right operator-manager relationship over specific asset profiles.
John Kilichowski from Wells Fargo requested an update on the NHC lease renegotiations, the current performance of the NHC portfolio, and the potential scale of asset dispositions related to the renewal.
President and CEO Eric Mendelsohn confirmed that discussions with NHC are ongoing, overseen by a special board committee, but could not share details. He noted NHC's corporate coverage has improved to over 4.1 times, demonstrating a strong ability to pay rent. Regarding dispositions, Mendelsohn described a strategy of potentially selling underperforming assets to create a stronger remaining portfolio that could command higher rent as part of a comprehensive lease renewal.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo inquired about the competitive landscape with private buyers and their impact on yields, and asked for details on the reiterated 75 basis point credit loss guidance.
CEO Sumit Roy positioned the increased private capital interest as a positive for the net lease sector, emphasizing Realty Income's competitive advantages in scale and underwriting. CFO Jonathan Pong clarified the 75 bp credit loss guidance is a conservative, fully-loaded figure that includes reserves and vacancy costs, noting that about 65 bps of rental revenue had been reserved year-to-date.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo inquired about Sabra's confidence in its $400 to $500 million investment target for the year, the potential mix of skilled nursing deals in the pipeline, and the reasoning for maintaining the same-store SHOP NOI guidance despite strong recent performance.
CEO Rick Matros confirmed confidence in the investment range, noting some deals might shift into the next year. He explained that the challenge with skilled nursing deals is finding quality assets, not pricing, and that the investment mix will likely remain weighted towards SHOP. Matros also stated the company is being moderate with its SHOP NOI guidance, hoping to outperform it.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo inquired about Sabra's confidence in its annual investment target, the mix of skilled nursing versus SHOP deals in the pipeline, and the rationale for not raising the same-store SHOP NOI guidance despite strong performance.
CEO Rick Matros confirmed the investment target is between $400 million and $500 million, noting the pipeline will likely remain weighted towards SHOP assets due to a lack of quality skilled nursing opportunities. Matros explained that the company is maintaining a moderate guidance posture for SHOP NOI with the hope of exceeding expectations.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo & Company inquired about Sabra's confidence in its annual investment target, the potential mix of skilled nursing deals in the pipeline, and the reasoning for maintaining the same-store SHOP NOI growth guidance despite strong recent performance.
CEO Rick Matros confirmed confidence in the $400 to $500 million investment range for the year, noting that the pipeline would likely remain weighted towards SHOP assets due to a focus on quality. He explained that the company is being 'moderate' with its SHOP NOI guidance, hoping to be in a position to outperform it. He also clarified that they are not pursuing complex JV structures or loan book deals.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo inquired about LTC Properties' strategy for funding its significant new investments, the underwriting assumptions for NOI growth in its SHOP acquisitions, and the potential for converting additional net lease properties to the SHOP platform.
Co-CEO Pam Kessler explained that new investments will be funded long-term on a leverage-neutral basis, utilizing a mix of higher-yielding loans, debt, equity, and approximately $120 million in upcoming asset sale proceeds. EVP & Chief Investment Officer David Boitano clarified that for stabilized SHOP acquisitions, they are projecting normalized NOI growth of around 3%, not outsized growth, as they are not deep value-add plays. Co-CEO Clint Malin added that while a few more conversions are possible, the primary growth driver for the SHOP platform is intended to be external acquisitions.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo asked for a breakdown of the drivers behind the raised FFO guidance and inquired about the specific sectors being targeted for acquisitions and dispositions.
EVP & CFO Vincent Chao detailed that the guidance increase was driven by strong year-to-date performance and higher acquisition volume, which offset headwinds from increased net expenses and the new bond offering. President and CEO Stephen Horn identified the auto service and QSR sectors as key targets for acquisitions, while dispositions are opportunistic.
John Kilichowski asked about the current transaction market, including deal flow and competition levels compared to the prior year, and how this might impact the 2025 acquisition guidance. He also inquired about rent coverage trends, particularly in the car wash and QSR sectors.
CEO Stephen Horn described the current deal flow as elevated compared to last year but noted competition is also increasing, which could slightly compress cap rates. He affirmed that 80% of NNN's deals come from relationships, providing a moat. On rent coverage, he stated that Mister Car Wash coverage is strong at over 4x and other car washes are performing well, while QSR sales are generally flat as operators absorb labor costs.
John Kolichowski of Wells Fargo & Company asked about the apparent change in balance sheet strategy, questioning the shift to debt issuance over equity. He also sought clarity on the tenants within the sub-1.0x EBITDAR coverage bucket and their prospects for improvement.
CFO Robert Stephenson explained the company opportunistically issued debt to refinance a 2026 maturity in a leverage-neutral transaction but will continue to use its equity currency for accretive acquisitions. CEO C. Taylor Pickett addressed the coverage concerns, stating he expects key tenants in the sub-1.0x bucket to improve and graduate out in the coming quarters based on recent performance trends.
An analyst from Wells Fargo inquired about regulatory risks beyond the staffing mandate, such as 'care at home' initiatives and Medicare Advantage claim denials, and their potential impact. They also asked for an update on the LaVie bankruptcy resolution.
SVP of Operations Megan Krull stated that the industry is needs-based and has already adapted to home health, so she doesn't foresee substantial changes from other regulatory items. CEO C. Pickett confirmed LaVie's plan confirmation is expected in mid-November, with the new sponsor assuming the lease at $3 million monthly rent without interruption.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo requested a breakdown and timeline for G&A savings, asked about the drivers of strong same-store NOI growth, and inquired about the future cadence of CapEx as a percentage of NOI given the focus on the RTO plan.
EVP & CFO Austen Helfrich detailed that $10 million in G&A savings has been actioned, with the full run-rate benefit in 2026, while another $5-10 million in property-level savings will be achieved over the next three years. He attributed strong NOI growth to a 100 bps year-over-year occupancy gain. President & CEO Peter Scott suggested modeling the $300 million in growth CapEx ratably over the next three years.
John Kilichowski asked about the medium-to-long-term growth profile of the SHOP portfolio, specifically the incremental margins and RevPOR growth potential once assets are stabilized above 90% occupancy. He also asked about the size of the addressable market for the high-quality senior housing assets Ventas targets.
J. Justin Hutchens, EVP - CIO of Senior Housing, detailed the operating leverage, explaining that incremental margins are around 50% in the 80-90% occupancy range and rise to ~70% above 90%. He also noted RevPOR growth doubles when occupancy exceeds 90%. For the addressable market, he estimated that beyond the 15% owned by REITs, another 40-50% of the market meets Ventas' investment criteria.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo asked if the legacy Stewart asset rent ramp was running ahead of schedule to meet the $160 million annualized target and inquired about the strategic rationale and expected return for the increased equity investment in InfraCore.
Edward Aldag, Chairman, President & CEO, responded that while the new operators' performance is ahead of projections, he does not expect them to accelerate their contractual rent ramp schedules. He added that the increased investment in InfraCore was primarily used to pay down maturing debt within the JV, which MPT considered a good return on its investment.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo & Company inquired if the rent ramp-up from legacy Steward assets was ahead of schedule, potentially exceeding the $150 million annualized target by October 2026. He also asked for more detail on the strategic rationale and return profile of the recent equity investment in the InfraCore JV.
Chairman, President & CEO Edward Aldag confirmed that while the new operators are performing ahead of schedule, he does not expect them to accelerate their contractual rent payments. He clarified the InfraCore investment was primarily to pay down the JV's maturing debt, representing a good return for MPW.
John Kilichowski questioned if the rent ramp-up from legacy Stewart assets was ahead of schedule to meet the $160 million annualized target by October 2026. He also asked for the strategic rationale and expected return on the increased equity investment in the InfraCore JV.
CEO Ed Aldag responded that while the new operators are performing ahead of projections, he does not expect them to accelerate their contractual rent payments. Regarding the InfraCore investment, Aldag clarified its primary purpose was to pay down maturing debt within the JV, which MPT considered a good return on its investment.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo inquired whether the rent ramp from former Steward assets was ahead of schedule to meet the 2026 target and asked for the strategic rationale and return profile of the increased investment in the InfraCore JV.
Edward K. Aldag Jr., CEO, confirmed that while operator performance is ahead of projections, the contractual rent ramp remains on its original schedule. He clarified that the additional investment in the InfraCore JV was primarily used to pay down maturing debt within the venture, representing a good return for MPT.
John Kilichowski from Wells Fargo requested updates on two specific operator situations: one in Colombia dealing with government reimbursement delays and another tenant (representing 1% of assets) that had a previous one-time payment. Additionally, he asked about the expected process and timing for the Prospect asset resolution following court approval.
Chairman, President and CEO Edward K. Aldag provided updates, stating the 1% tenant is now current on rent and had its best quarter in a long time. Regarding Colombia, he characterized the reimbursement issue as a temporary political maneuver related to healthcare reform, not a long-term viability concern. For the Prospect assets, he expects potential new tenants to be identified by late May or early June, with closings to follow as soon as regulatory approvals are secured.
John Kilichowski asked about any amendments to the credit agreement, particularly regarding previously waived covenants, and inquired about the expectation for collecting Quality Assurance Fee (QAF) payments.
CFO R. Hamner clarified that the prior amendment and covenant waivers were eliminated. The facility now reverts to previous terms, including a 40% limit on securing unencumbered assets and a lower rate. He added that the most significant QAF payment is expected from Prospect California in March and April.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo inquired about FCPT's acquisition capacity, asking if current deal volume is constrained by team size or market opportunities. He also requested a sensitivity analysis on how a 10-20 basis point improvement in cap rates might expand the investment pipeline.
William Lenehan, President, CEO & Director, clarified that acquisition volume is governed by the availability of well-priced assets, not team capacity, which is appropriately staffed. He estimated that a 25 basis point favorable shift in cap rates could substantially increase the opportunity set by $100 million to $200 million.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo inquired about FCPT's acquisition capacity, asking whether current volume is constrained by the team's size or by market opportunities, and requested a sensitivity analysis on how a 10-20 bps improvement in cap rates might impact the deal pipeline.
President, CEO & Director William Lenehan clarified that the company is appropriately staffed and the primary governor on acquisition volume is the availability of well-priced assets, not team capacity. He stated that a 25 basis point improvement in cap rates would be substantial, potentially adding $100 million to $200 million in volume, and noted the company has already raised capital at favorable prices via its forward equity program.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo asked about the potential impact of US-EU trade discussions on WPC's tenants and whether they have provided any new feedback. He also inquired about the primary drivers for the more attractive investment spreads observed in Europe.
CEO Jason Fox responded that there have been no direct impacts from trade tariff discussions on the portfolio to date, as many proposed tariffs have not been implemented. He stated that the company's rent reserve is sufficient to cover potential future impacts. Regarding Europe, he explained that the better spreads are primarily driven by a lower cost of capital, as WPC can borrow in euros at rates 125-150 basis points below comparable US bonds, while cap rates remain similar.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo asked about the impact of US-EU trade discussions on tenants and whether they are providing any new feedback. He also inquired about the primary drivers behind the more attractive investment spreads in Europe.
CEO Jason Fox stated that despite ongoing discussions, there have been no discernible impacts on the portfolio or tenant behavior from trade policy. He explained that the superior investment spreads in Europe are primarily driven by a lower cost of debt, with the ability to borrow in euros at 125-150 basis points inside of US bond rates for assets with similar cap rates.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo & Company inquired about any new feedback from tenants regarding the potential impact of U.S.-E.U. trade discussions and tariffs. He also asked for the primary drivers behind the more attractive investment spreads observed in Europe.
CEO Jason Fox stated that while uncertainty persists, there have been no material impacts from trade discussions on the portfolio to date, as major tariffs have not been implemented. Regarding Europe, he explained that the wider investment spreads are primarily driven by a lower cost of capital, with the ability to borrow in euros at rates 125-150 basis points below comparable U.S. bonds, while acquisition cap rates remain similar.
John Kilichowski asked how increasing competition from private buyers is influencing acquisition guidance and requested a clarification on the Hearthside credit situation.
CEO Jason Fox confirmed that heightened competition, especially from private equity in the U.S., is a factor contributing to the company's conservative initial acquisition guidance. He also clarified the expectation for Hearthside is that the tenant will emerge from bankruptcy without any rent disruption to W. P. Carey, given the critical nature of the assets WPC owns.
On behalf of John Kilichowski, an analyst asked about the changes in seller expectations and investment spreads in Europe versus the U.S., and also inquired about the company's exposure to the American Tire bankruptcy.
CEO Jason Fox stated that while European investment activity is picking up after a slow summer, borrowing costs there are 100-150 basis points lower than in the U.S., creating attractive spreads as cap rates are only slightly lower. He and Head of Asset Management Brooks Gordon reiterated that exposure to American Tire is insignificant, at approximately 15 basis points of ABR, and considered a non-event for the company.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo inquired about Gaming and Leisure Properties' interest in the Bally's Lincoln call option, given Bally's recent credit downgrade and negative free cash flow projections.
President and COO Brandon Moore responded that GLPI evaluates the Lincoln property on its own merits, focusing on whether the asset is accretive to their portfolio at the negotiated price. He confirmed they are conducting fresh market research to re-evaluate the economics of the deal, separate from broader concerns about Bally's overall financial health.
John Kilichowski inquired about the level of conservatism in the updated investment guidance and how much it could increase with better access to equity capital. He also asked about discussions with rating agencies and the potential impact of a credit rating upgrade on the company's WACC.
President & CEO Mark Manheimer stated the acquisition opportunity set is 'massive,' with the potential to deploy $150-$200 million in net acquisitions quarterly, contingent on the cost of capital. CFO & Treasurer Daniel Donlan added that a potential investment-grade rating is not factored into guidance but would lower debt costs by approximately 30 basis points, with conversations with agencies planned for later in Q3.
John Kilichowski asked about the level of conservatism in the updated investment guidance, particularly concerning access to equity capital, and inquired about any discussions with rating agencies for a potential investment-grade credit rating.
President & CEO Mark Manheimer stated the investment opportunity set is 'massive' and the company could deploy $150-$200 million in net acquisitions quarterly, contingent on its cost of capital. CFO & Treasurer Daniel Donlan added that a potential credit rating is not in the guidance but would lower debt costs by approximately 30 basis points, and conversations with agencies are planned for later in Q3.
John Kilichowski asked about the level of conservatism in the updated investment guidance given the improved access to equity, and inquired about progress toward obtaining an investment-grade credit rating and its potential impact on the company's WACC.
CEO Mark Manheimer stated the investment opportunity set is 'massive' and they could deploy $150M-$200M net per quarter, but will remain mindful of their cost of capital. CFO Daniel Donlan added that obtaining a new investment-grade rating could lower their debt costs by about 30 basis points and that conversations with rating agencies are planned for late Q3.
John Kilichowski asked for more detail on the increased investment guidance, questioning the level of conservatism related to equity capital access and the potential for further increases. He also inquired about any discussions with rating agencies for a potential credit rating upgrade and its prospective impact on the company's weighted average cost of capital (WACC).
CEO Mark Manheimer stated that the acquisition opportunity set is 'massive' and deploying $150-$200 million in net acquisitions quarterly is feasible, contingent on the cost of capital. CFO Daniel Donlan added that a potential investment grade credit rating is not yet factored into guidance but could reduce debt costs by approximately 30 basis points. He confirmed that conversations with rating agencies are planned for later in the third quarter.
John Kilichowski asked for specifics on what types of real estate VICI might own permanently through its Cain and Eldridge partnership and inquired about changes in the competitive landscape from private capital.
CEO Ed Pitoniak clarified that VICI is not optimistic about owning real estate within the One Beverly Hills project itself, but sees opportunities in other parts of the Cain/Eldridge portfolio that resemble assets VICI already owns, like Chelsea Piers. An unnamed executive added that the competitive landscape has been consistently strong since the company's inception and that VICI relies on its deep relationships to succeed.
John Kilichowski of Wells Fargo Securities asked about the put options on the Harrah's Hoosier Park asset, their likelihood of being exercised, and if this kept capital sidelined. He also inquired about any gaming-related issues on upcoming election ballots and requested more detail on the $80 million in capital deployed during the quarter beyond the Venetian investment.
CEO Edward Pitoniak stated that Caesars has explicitly communicated it has no intention of exercising the put options, so it does not affect VICI's capital planning. President and COO John W. Payne noted a few state-level ballot measures in Missouri, Arkansas, and Virginia but characterized it as a quiet year for gaming legislation. CFO David Kieske clarified the additional $80 million in capital deployment consisted of incremental draws on previously announced loans for Great Wolf, Homefield, Cabot, and Canyon Ranch.
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