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    John Murphy

    Managing Director and Senior North American Automotive Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America

    John Murphy is a Managing Director and Senior North American Automotive Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America, specializing in the automotive sector with coverage of manufacturers, suppliers, dealers, and related businesses. He leads highly regarded research initiatives such as 'Car Wars' and 'Who Makes the Car,' and publishes the influential annual Dealer Manual, focusing on strategic trends and electrification in the vehicle product pipeline. Recognized as an Industry Influencer and inducted into the Automotive Hall of Fame in 2023, Murphy has appeared on Institutional Investor’s All-America Research Team for 15 consecutive years. He began his career at National Economic Research Associates before joining the Merrill Lynch Auto group in 1999 and holds extensive credentials in automotive investment analysis.

    John Murphy's questions to AMERICAS CARMART (CRMT) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to AMERICAS CARMART (CRMT) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    Asked about the financial condition of the company's low-end consumer, the long-term strategy for moving upmarket with new underwriting changes, and how success in the capital markets differentiates them from competitors and fuels growth. He also asked for clarification on their current debt facilities.

    Answer

    Management stated their customers are resilient and key credit metrics show no signs of cracking. The ability to raise rates without losing customers indicates a lack of other options for them. Regarding moving upmarket, the strategy is in its very early stages but is focused on capturing more top-tier customers. On capital markets, recent securitizations have been successful due to the maturing, higher-quality loan portfolio. The company is exploring more mature capital structures, like warehouse loans, to lower interest costs and support growth. They confirmed they have an unused warehouse facility and are focused on optimizing their entire capital structure.

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    John Murphy's questions to AMERICAS CARMART (CRMT) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    John Murphy inquired about the current financial condition of Car-Mart's subprime customer base amid market cross-currents. He also asked about the long-term strategy of moving upmarket to higher-tier customers and how recent successes in the ABS capital markets could fuel future growth.

    Answer

    CEO & President Douglas Campbell stated that key credit indicators like delinquencies and charge-offs show no signs of deterioration in their customer base, who are accustomed to a 'recessionary environment.' CFO Jonathan Collins and Campbell then addressed capital markets, highlighting the successful recent securitization, which saw tighter spreads due to growing investor confidence in the portfolio's quality, now two-thirds underwritten by the new LOS. Collins mentioned plans to further mature the capital structure, exploring tools like warehouse loans to support growth.

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    John Murphy's questions to AMERICAS CARMART (CRMT) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Inquired about the drivers of improved provisioning, asking to separate the impact of consumer stress from the benefits of the new LOS. He also asked the new COO, Jamie Fischer, about her reasons for joining the company and the opportunities she sees.

    Answer

    The improvement in provisioning is attributed mostly to better underwriting from the new LOS, which now covers nearly 60% of the portfolio, rather than an improvement in the consumer's financial health. The new COO, Jamie Fischer, stated she joined Car-Mart for the opportunity to make a significant impact at a smaller, more agile company and is excited about projects like improving the collections infrastructure.

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    John Murphy's questions to AMERICAS CARMART (CRMT) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    John Murphy inquired about the drivers of the credit provision benefit, seeking to distinguish between the positive effects of the new LOS and the underlying financial health of the core consumer. He also asked COO Jamie Fischer about his motivation for joining the company and the opportunities he sees.

    Answer

    CFO Vickie Judy attributed the provision improvement primarily to better underwriting through the LOS, not an improvement in the consumer's financial position. CEO Douglas Campbell added that with nearly 60% of the portfolio now underwritten by the LOS, the company has a greater margin of safety. COO Jamie Fischer stated he was drawn by the opportunity to make a significant impact on operational improvements, such as collections, at a company with great potential.

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    John Murphy's questions to AMERICAS CARMART (CRMT) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Inquired about the sales volume impact of underwriting changes, the state of consumer confidence and traffic, and the rationale for the size of the recent equity raise in relation to M&A opportunities.

    Answer

    The company sees significant volume opportunities by using new pricing tools to attract higher-quality customers and appropriately price risk for others. While improving consumer confidence is helpful, the focus remains on internal execution. The equity raise was sized to be minimally dilutive, providing a bridge while other initiatives and favorable market conditions (like lower rates) materialize, rather than funding aggressive M&A immediately.

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    John Murphy's questions to BORGWARNER (BWA) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to BORGWARNER (BWA) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    John Murphy inquired about the return profiles for foundational product extensions versus new eProduct awards, the potential risks from rare earth mineral constraints, and whether more portfolio optimization actions are anticipated.

    Answer

    CEO Joseph Fadool explained that foundational product extensions maintain strong and consistent margin profiles. He expressed excitement for new hybrid-related wins, which provide more clarity on OEM cycle plans. Regarding rare earths, Fadool stated that dedicated teams are in place to manage supply. He also confirmed that the portfolio is under continuous review against a 15% ROIC threshold, which drove the decision to exit the charging business and consolidate North American battery capacity.

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    John Murphy's questions to BORGWARNER (BWA) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    John Murphy asked about the portfolio's resilience to short-term EV program shifts, the drivers of the organic sales variance in the 2025 outlook, and the company's customer mix in China.

    Answer

    CEO Joseph Fadool explained that while EV-related requests for quotes (RFQs) have slowed outside of China, the company is seeing an increase in RFQs for foundational products, positioning them well for powertrain shifts. He highlighted that in China, 75% of BorgWarner's sales are with local Chinese OEMs, providing a strong position in that market.

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    John Murphy's questions to BORGWARNER (BWA) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    John Murphy asked about the capital intensity and return potential for extensions of foundational ICE products, like the new transfer case win. He also inquired about the current quoting environment and whether it has slowed despite the company announcing new wins.

    Answer

    Executive Frederic Lissalde explained that opportunities in the combustion business arise from program extensions, prolongations, and hybrid applications, which can have varying capital needs. He confirmed a slowdown in new quoting for electrified powertrains in the West, as OEMs focus on launching existing programs, but noted this creates more opportunities for BorgWarner's foundational products.

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    John Murphy's questions to LEAR (LEA) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to LEAR (LEA) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    John Murphy of Bank of America asked about the strategic rationale for moving wire harness production to Honduras, the feasibility of bringing it back to the U.S., Lear's sales exposure to European vehicles imported to the U.S., and the capital requirements for extending existing vehicle programs.

    Answer

    CEO Raymond Scott explained the move to Honduras was driven by labor arbitrage and availability for the labor-intensive work of wire harness assembly. He stated that bringing this work to the U.S. would be difficult due to labor scarcity and the current limits of automation for complex harnesses. CFO Jason Cardew clarified the $1 billion European exposure is revenue tied to vehicles produced there for the U.S. market, primarily with JLR, VW Group, and Mercedes. Scott concluded that program extensions are favorable, requiring minimal new capital and offering opportunities to renegotiate terms.

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    John Murphy's questions to LEAR (LEA) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    John Murphy of Bank of America inquired about the competitive dynamics in Lear's Seating business, focusing on how innovation like ComfortMax and cost-saving automation are driving market share and potentially shortening bid-to-launch timelines.

    Answer

    President and CEO Raymond Scott explained that Lear's strategic acquisitions and 'Idea by Lear' initiative have enabled a modular seating approach, reducing costs and complexity while improving comfort. He stated this creates a durable cost advantage, allowing Lear to win business, such as the recent GM midsize truck program for ComfortMax, while protecting margins. Scott confirmed that this modular, frame-agnostic approach is accelerating product launch timelines.

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    John Murphy's questions to LEAR (LEA) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    John Murphy of Bank of America asked if the slowdown in the bidding process is related to automakers requesting dual quotes—one with and one without China/Taiwan content. He also inquired about the long-term potential for automation and the strategy of shifting labor from Mexico to Honduras.

    Answer

    CEO Raymond Scott clarified that the current 'requests for information' (RFIs) are more focused on different vehicle architectures and battery designs rather than ex-China content. He noted this trend creates opportunities for Lear's innovative modular seating solutions. Scott explained that Lear is pursuing a dual strategy of moving labor-intensive work to lower-cost regions like Honduras while also aggressively investing in automation with a long-term goal of 'lights out' manufacturing, which reduces both labor and capital costs.

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    John Murphy's questions to FORD MOTOR (F) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to FORD MOTOR (F) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    John Murphy asked about the potential positive indirect impacts of tariffs, such as market share gains and higher used vehicle prices, and questioned the high price elasticity assumed in the SAAR forecast.

    Answer

    CEO James Farley acknowledged the significant opportunity for Ford due to its U.S. footprint and stated the company is already being aggressive to gain share. President of Ford Blue and Model e, Andrew Frick, defended the SAAR forecast, noting it includes a payback from a strong H1 and is based on detailed modeling. Farley added that customers are already stretching affordability.

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    John Murphy's questions to FORD MOTOR (F) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    John Murphy sought clarity on whether Ford is past the worst of its warranty issues and asked for an outlook on industry pricing for the Ford Blue segment, considering inventory levels and new product launches.

    Answer

    CFO John Lawler stated that while leading quality indicators are improving significantly, he could not provide certainty on when the cost curve for warranty would bend due to potential issues with older models. Regarding pricing, Lawler noted that while Ford's pricing has been resilient, there are increasing pressures, and the full impact for 2025 remains uncertain.

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    John Murphy's questions to AMERICAN AXLE & MANUFACTURING HOLDINGS (AXL) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to AMERICAN AXLE & MANUFACTURING HOLDINGS (AXL) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    John Murphy sought to confirm that USMCA-compliant parts are exempt from tariffs, asked for the origin of the $100 million in 'Rest of World' imports, and questioned the impact of a potential EV slowdown on AAM's business and R&D spending.

    Answer

    CEO David Dauch confirmed the current understanding on USMCA compliance but noted AAM is also preparing for a potential 'U.S. content only' scenario. CFO Chris May identified the Rest of World exposure as coming from countries like India and Korea. Dauch described an EV slowdown and longer ICE program life as a 'net positive' for AAM, as it allows the company to generate more cash from its installed base to fund a more selective and disciplined EV portfolio development.

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    John Murphy's questions to AMERICAN AXLE & MANUFACTURING HOLDINGS (AXL) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    John Murphy asked for clarification on the 2025 outlook for volume and mix, specifically concerning GM's T1 truck platform and the Ram HD program. He also inquired if the planned reductions in R&D and CapEx were organic or influenced by the pending Dowlais merger, and sought details on customer reception to the deal, particularly from Asian brands.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Chris May clarified that the outlook assumes 1.3 to 1.4 million units for GM's full-size trucks and a relatively flat year-over-year performance for the Ram HD platform. He confirmed that the R&D and CapEx reductions are purely organic to AAM's standalone business. Chairman and CEO David Dauch added that customer feedback on the Dowlais combination has been positive across North America, Europe, and Asia, citing the complementary nature of the product portfolios.

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    John Murphy's questions to AMERICAN AXLE & MANUFACTURING HOLDINGS (AXL) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    John Murphy asked for an explanation of the implied lower Q4 EBITDA, questioning if it was driven by the Ram HD changeover and GM truck downtime. He also asked if the stronger EBITDA margin from the first three quarters is a more representative baseline for 2025 than the weaker Q4 margin, and sought to clarify AAM's content on Ram pickups.

    Answer

    CEO David Dauch confirmed that the Q4 outlook reflects lower North American production, major program launch ramp-ups, seasonality, and early-quarter supply chain disruptions. For 2025 modeling, Dauch advised against using Q4 as a baseline, suggesting a full-year 2024 view is more appropriate. He also affirmed that AAM's primary content is on the Ram HD platform (2500 series and higher).

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    John Murphy's questions to MAGNA INTERNATIONAL (MGA) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to MAGNA INTERNATIONAL (MGA) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    John Murphy of BofA Securities inquired about the mid-to-long-term strategy for Magna's Seating business, the interpretation of new USMCA tariff guidance, potential impacts on OEM production schedules, and the customer mix in China.

    Answer

    CEO Seetarama Kotagiri explained that a one-time warranty issue in Seating is resolved and the unit is tracking to its operational plan. He confirmed that recent guidance provides tariff relief for USMCA-compliant parts, which account for 75-80% of Magna's cross-border goods. Kotagiri also noted no significant changes to OEM production schedules have been observed and highlighted that over 65% of Magna's China revenue now comes from domestic OEMs.

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    John Murphy's questions to MAGNA INTERNATIONAL (MGA) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    John Murphy of Bank of America inquired about the potential for ICE vehicle programs to backfill delayed EV volumes, the execution risk of restructuring the Steyr Complete Vehicles operations, and the significance of a new hot-stamped door ring win with a Japanese OEM.

    Answer

    CEO Seetarama Kotagiri confirmed the 2026 outlook includes approximately $800-$900 million in confirmed higher ICE volumes offsetting some EV delays but noted the company remains cautious about further assumptions. He described the Steyr restructuring as "pretty straightforward" and substantially underway. He also characterized the Japanese OEM win as a key entry with a specialized product, though the overall business with Japanese customers is not yet substantial.

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    John Murphy's questions to General Motors (GM) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to General Motors (GM) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    John Murphy of Bank of America asked if the new tariff environment creates a significant opportunity for brands like Cadillac and Chevrolet to take market share from disadvantaged German luxury and Korean competitors. He also asked how GM positions itself in discussions for further tariff relief, given its current strong performance.

    Answer

    Chair and CEO Mary Barra agreed there is a 'huge opportunity' for GM to leverage its product strength and U.S. manufacturing footprint, noting strong recent sales for U.S.-built SUVs. In discussions with the administration, Barra said GM positions itself as a company committed to a strong U.S. auto industry, which is vital for both economic and national security. She emphasized that GM's goal is aligned with the President's: strengthening U.S. manufacturing, and their conversations have been productive around what is needed to reinvest, grow, and compete on a level playing field.

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    John Murphy's questions to General Motors (GM) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    John Murphy pressed for clarity on GM's baseline policy assumptions, specifically regarding its interpretation of CARB's ACC2 EV mandates. He also asked whether GM remains committed to developing Level 4/5 autonomous technology internally or if it might consider acquiring the capability.

    Answer

    Chair and CEO Mary Barra explained that while they are providing input at state and federal levels, GM cannot yet assume that EV mandates are gone and must operate to ensure compliance. On autonomy, she stated that GM intends to be a leader in L4, leveraging internal talent from Cruise and potentially working with strategic partners to do so in a capital-efficient manner.

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    John Murphy's questions to General Motors (GM) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    John Murphy from Bank of America questioned the 2025 EBIT outlook, noting that improved EV profitability implies a significant deterioration in the core ICE business to remain flat year-over-year. He also asked about the motivation for seeking external capital for Cruise.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Paul Jacobson stated that official 2025 guidance is forthcoming but acknowledged headwinds like labor cost inflation. Chair and CEO Mary Barra explained that the strategy for Cruise is to invest more efficiently by exploring partnerships, similar to its collaborations with Hyundai and Honda, to leverage strengths and manage investment wisely.

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    John Murphy's questions to PENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP (PAG) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to PENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP (PAG) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    John Murphy inquired about efficiency improvements in the U.K. business, the dynamic between warranty and customer-pay service growth, and the potential impact of tariffs on price elasticity for premium vehicles.

    Answer

    EVP Randall Seymore detailed the U.K.'s outperformance, driven by inventory management and expense controls. Chair and CEO Roger Penske explained that major recalls are driving the warranty service mix, and noted that higher-margin leasing can mitigate tariff impacts on consumers. EVP Rich Shearing added that OEM partners have provided some near-term price clarity on both trucks and cars.

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    John Murphy's questions to PENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP (PAG) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    John Murphy inquired if the business is at an inflection point, citing the sequential increase in new vehicle gross profit, and asked about the impact of BEVs and the progress on technician hiring.

    Answer

    Chair Roger Penske attributed the strong gross profit to the company's premium brand mix (77% of total). He noted that while some pressure is possible, factors like F&I and returning lease volumes should provide support. On BEVs, he stated inventory levels have normalized to 11% from over 30% previously, though they still require significant discounts. He also confirmed technician applicant flow is improving, which is key to growing the high-margin service business.

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    John Murphy's questions to PENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP (PAG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    John Murphy inquired about the financial impact of recent vehicle stop sales, the underlying causes for their increasing frequency, and the potential for offsetting benefits in the parts and service business. He also asked if new vehicle gross profits are stabilizing at current high levels or if further normalization is expected.

    Answer

    Richard Shearing, Head of North American Operations, detailed that the stop sales had a net negative gross profit impact of approximately $4 million globally, after accounting for warranty repair revenue. He attributed the rise in recalls to increased vehicle software complexity and post-pandemic supply chain challenges. Shearing also expressed confidence in current gross profit levels, noting that while affordability is a challenge, disciplined sales execution and OEM incentives are helping to maintain strong margins.

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    John Murphy's questions to ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP (ABG) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP (ABG) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    John Murphy questioned the sustainability of the front-end gross profit per vehicle, the growth outlook for parts and service, and the potential for top-line revenue benefits from the Tekion implementation beyond just cost savings.

    Answer

    President & CEO David Hult asserted that Asbury's improved store mix makes it a different company today and that the Q1 strategy correctly prioritized gross profit over volume. He and COO Dan Clara reaffirmed the mid- to high-single-digit growth outlook for parts and service. David Hult also detailed how Tekion's unified customer profile and integrated CRM will enhance marketing, efficiency, and customer trust, ultimately driving top-line growth.

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    John Murphy's questions to ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP (ABG) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    John Murphy of Bank of America inquired about the drivers of new vehicle Gross Profit Per Unit (GPU), asking to distinguish between seasonality and a potential market bottom. He also sought specifics on the benefits of the Tekion pilot program and asked if the post-election sales momentum continued into January.

    Answer

    President and CEO David Hult explained that new vehicle GPU strength is supported by Asbury's improved brand and market mix, noting that the company is different than it was in 2019 and that Stellantis performance was a significant headwind. Regarding the Tekion pilot, he highlighted a 70% reduction in plug-ins, easier employee onboarding, and increased productivity, which will lead to material SG&A savings upon full rollout. For January, Hult described trends as mixed due to weather but noted that underlying momentum, particularly in parts and service, remains encouraging.

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    John Murphy's questions to ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP (ABG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    John Murphy inquired about the broader market impact of Stellantis's inventory challenges, the sustainability of new vehicle GPUs around the $3,500 level, and the potential for recent stop sales to create a future tailwind for the parts and service business.

    Answer

    President & CEO David Hult explained that Stellantis's incentive strategy created a temporary competitive disadvantage, but recent changes are encouraging. He and SVP of Operations Dan Clara attributed the strong new vehicle GPU to Asbury's favorable brand mix, particularly in luxury. Clara confirmed that stop sales will create a warranty service tailwind starting in Q4 and extending into 2025, dependent on parts availability.

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    John Murphy's questions to AUTONATION (AN) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to AUTONATION (AN) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    John Murphy inquired about the performance of AutoNation's F&I per vehicle retail (PBR), specifically asking to quantify the dilutive impact of the growing AN Finance business. He also asked about the funding flexibility for AN Finance ahead of its first asset-backed security (ABS) issuance and whether the recent demand pull-forward from tariff announcements would lead to a significant payback later in the year.

    Answer

    CFO Tom Szlosek quantified the drag from AN Finance on the CFS PBR at approximately $150 for the quarter, highlighting the underlying strength of the core business. He affirmed they have ample warehouse funding capacity and are targeting an inaugural ABS issuance of over $500 million. CEO Mike Manley opined that not all of the recent sales strength was a pull-forward, citing underlying market momentum, and he expects any tariff impact to be cushioned by brand cross-shopping, suggesting a full 'payback' is unlikely.

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    John Murphy's questions to AUTONATION (AN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    John Murphy from Bank of America asked about a potential post-election sales bump for luxury, hybrid, and EV vehicles, and whether automakers are using this period to right-size EV inventory. He also inquired about the ability to offset new vehicle GPU pressure with front-end gross from used vehicles and F&I.

    Answer

    CEO Mike Manley confirmed that improved affordability and post-election confidence boosted sales, a trend he expects to continue into Q1 2025. He noted that OEMs are actively managing EV inventory in light of the changing subsidy environment. Regarding gross profit, Manley explained that the focus is on the total customer transaction and monthly payment, which builds long-term value and service business, rather than trying to maximize individual profit components in a transparent market.

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    John Murphy's questions to AUTONATION (AN) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    John Murphy of Bank of America inquired about the After-Sales business, asking if warranty work could offset tougher comps and how customer retention is measured. He also questioned the future funding costs for AutoNation Finance (ANF) post-ABS issuance and the timeline for ANF to reach run-rate profitability.

    Answer

    CEO Mike Manley explained that significant growth opportunities remain in After-Sales, particularly in the 3-to-7-year-old vehicle segment, and that his internal growth targets are more ambitious than the company's cautious public forecast. CFO Tom Szlosek addressed ANF, stating that an ABS program should lower funding costs and that he expects the portfolio to achieve run-rate profitability by the end of 2025, even with continued growth.

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    John Murphy's questions to GROUP 1 AUTOMOTIVE (GPI) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to GROUP 1 AUTOMOTIVE (GPI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    John Murphy questioned the company's service capacity to handle a potential increase in repair work if vehicle sales slow, given the 8% rise in technician headcount. He also asked about the current financial drag from EVs and the potential impact of regulatory relief on CARB states for operations and M&A.

    Answer

    CEO Daryl Kenningham affirmed that significant service capacity remains, citing hundreds of open bays and improved technician productivity. He highlighted the workshop A/C project, which lowers tech turnover. CFO Daniel McHenry noted that the GPU drag from EVs has lessened to about a $1,000 differential versus ICE vehicles. Kenningham added that potential CARB changes do not alter their acquisition strategy in those states.

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    John Murphy's questions to GROUP 1 AUTOMOTIVE (GPI) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    John Murphy questioned if the sequential improvement in new vehicle GPUs indicated that margins are bottoming out. He also asked about the hiring pipeline for technicians and its role as a gating factor for parts and service growth.

    Answer

    CEO Daryl Kenningham agreed that new vehicle GPUs are likely at or approaching a bottom, citing higher vehicle content and more rational OEM production. He also confirmed that aggressive technician hiring targets will continue in 2025, as the company has ample physical capacity and is focused on retention to drive after-sales growth.

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    John Murphy's questions to GROUP 1 AUTOMOTIVE (GPI) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    John Murphy inquired about the M&A landscape, asking if Group 1 has reached saturation in the U.K. and if large 'chunky' deals are still possible in the U.S. He also questioned the sustainability of new vehicle GPUs amid rising inventory.

    Answer

    CFO Daniel McHenry stated that large-scale acquisitions in the U.K. are likely complete, but tuck-ins remain an option. CEO Daryl Kenningham added that significant tuck-ins are still available and that larger deals are still possible in the U.S. market. Regarding GPUs, Kenningham noted the decline is slowing and that OEM finance arms are becoming more aggressive to support affordability. McHenry added that stop sales on high-margin models suppressed the Q3 GPU figure.

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    John Murphy's questions to SONIC AUTOMOTIVE (SAH) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to SONIC AUTOMOTIVE (SAH) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    John Murphy from Bank of America inquired about the potential impacts of new tariffs on factory partner commentary, vehicle pricing, and M&A activity. He also asked for an update on fixed operations, specifically technician hiring and the potential for growth through increased volume and labor rates.

    Answer

    President Jeff Dyke stated that the tariff situation is uncertain but the company is prepared to navigate it, noting manufacturers will likely help absorb costs. He sees no major impact on M&A yet. CEO David Smith affirmed they are not price gouging customers. On fixed ops, Dyke highlighted the hiring of 345 incremental technicians since last March, which is driving growth. VP of Investor Relations Danny Wieland added that newer technicians are still ramping up to full productivity, indicating further runway for growth.

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    John Murphy's questions to SONIC AUTOMOTIVE (SAH) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    John Murphy inquired about Sonic's accelerated M&A strategy, the impact of electric vehicles on new vehicle GPUs, and the key performance indicators required to resume EchoPark store openings.

    Answer

    President Jeff Dyke explained that luxury dealership valuations are favorable, and Sonic's strong balance sheet supports an aggressive M&A strategy focused on luxury and import brands in growth markets. He estimated EVs create a ~$400 drag on new vehicle GPUs. Regarding EchoPark, Dyke stated that store openings would resume, likely in early 2026, once used vehicle affordability improves. CEO David Smith, CFO Heath Byrd, EchoPark COO Tim Keen, and VP of IR Danny Wieland also contributed details on M&A drivers, EV inventory management, and the external factors influencing the EchoPark growth timeline.

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    John Murphy's questions to SONIC AUTOMOTIVE (SAH) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    John Murphy asked for clarification on the core adjusted EPS number excluding one-time impacts, the financial effect of recent storms, the new vehicle GPU breakdown between EV and ICE, and the outlook for technician hiring.

    Answer

    CFO Heath R. Byrd quantified the EPS impact from the CDK outage ($0.33) and the BMW stop sale ($0.05). President Jeff Dyke and CEO David Smith confirmed minimal storm impact. Heath Byrd and VP of IR Danny Wieland detailed the GPU headwinds from EVs, noting supply/demand imbalances. Jeff Dyke added that he expects strong Q4 incentives from luxury brands and that the company can continue adding technicians and service capacity.

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    John Murphy's questions to LITHIA MOTORS (LAD) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to LITHIA MOTORS (LAD) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    John Murphy asked about communications from OEM partners regarding tariffs, the impact on the M&A environment, and how the company balances market share gains with front-end gross profit, given the growth of its adjacencies like DFC. He also inquired about the market for DFC's ABS deals.

    Answer

    President and CEO Bryan DeBoer noted no major M&A impact from tariffs, while COO Adam Chamberlain confirmed clear OEM communication, with prices held through May. DeBoer explained that their model aims for higher gross profit through a better customer experience, though they sometimes trade margin for finance penetration. SVP of Driveway Finance, Chuck Lietz, added that while the ABS market is currently 'choppy,' DFC had a successful Q1 issuance and has ample warehouse facility capacity.

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    John Murphy's questions to LITHIA MOTORS (LAD) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    John Murphy asked for commentary on high acquisition multiples, what happens to the 5% of acquisitions that are not successful, and what the normalized front-end gross profit per unit range is for Lithia.

    Answer

    President and CEO Bryan DeBoer stated that with some deals trading at high multiples for low returns, LAD's own stock is a more attractive investment, making share buybacks a near-term focus. He explained the 5% of unsuccessful acquisitions are typically underperforming stores within a group that are divested if not fixed. He projects a normalized front-end GPU of $4,200-$4,500, higher than pre-COVID levels due to a strategic shift to higher-margin brands and regions.

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    John Murphy's questions to LITHIA MOTORS (LAD) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    John Murphy asked for details on exceeding cost-cutting targets, the feasibility of future savings, and the broader market impact of Stellantis's recent aggressive incentive programs.

    Answer

    CEO Bryan DeBoer confirmed cost-cutting momentum is strong, with the total target now exceeding $300 million, including future interest savings from inventory reduction. Regarding Stellantis, he noted sales have been challenging but improved in September. COO Adam Chamberlain added that industry-wide incentives are returning but remain below pre-COVID levels, with Stellantis's promotions being very short-term.

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    John Murphy's questions to CARMAX (KMX) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to CARMAX (KMX) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    John Murphy asked if investments in reconditioning and auction centers would allow CarMax to increase its presence in the 6- to 10-year-old vehicle segment and whether recent COGS savings make a $2,300-$2,400 GPU the new normal. He later followed up on the EPS growth model, questioning if it includes the normalization of SG&A back to the mid-70% range.

    Answer

    CEO William Nash confirmed the new centers add capacity for all vehicle ages, including 6-to-10-year-olds, but emphasized that quality standards will not be sacrificed. He noted the new centers also reduce logistics costs. Regarding the EPS model, CFO Enrique Mayor-Mora clarified that the path back to a mid-70% SG&A-to-gross-profit ratio is factored into their long-term EPS growth guidance, though it will take time to achieve.

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    John Murphy's questions to CARMAX (KMX) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    John Murphy asked if CarMax was intentionally sourcing older or lower-trim vehicles to drive sales comps and expand its addressable market amid industry supply shortages.

    Answer

    CEO William Nash clarified that the age mix of vehicles was very similar year-over-year, with the 0-4 year-old segment actually increasing slightly. However, he highlighted that the team successfully grew the mix of vehicles sold under $20,000 to 30% from 25% a year ago, attributing this to strong, diversified sourcing efforts.

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    John Murphy's questions to CARMAX (KMX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    John Murphy questioned how CarMax gauges the trajectory of credit performance and what internal metrics are key. He also asked about vehicle sourcing, highlighting the impressive number of vehicles acquired from dealers despite a market shortage of late-model cars.

    Answer

    SVP Jon Daniels pointed to the reserve-to-receivables ratio (2.82%) as a key metric highlighting the positive impact of past underwriting tightening. President & CEO William Nash clarified that no new tightening occurred in Q2. Regarding sourcing, Mr. Nash credited their success to diversified channels, especially the MaxOffer platform via Edmunds, which has seen a 50% year-over-year increase in active dealers, providing better access to supply.

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    John Murphy's questions to Lucid Group (LCID) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to Lucid Group (LCID) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    John Murphy of Bank of America asked about the abrupt departure of CEO Peter Rawlinson without a successor named, the development and trajectory of the Lucid Gravity order book, whether the 2025 production guidance is demand or capacity constrained, and the development status of the upcoming Midsize platform.

    Answer

    Interim CEO Marc Winterhoff explained that Peter Rawlinson felt it was a good time to transition after 12 years and establishing the Air and Gravity vehicles. Winterhoff noted that Gravity orders, which opened in November for the high-trim Grand Touring, have been surprisingly strong with most configurations exceeding $120,000, despite minimal marketing. He confirmed the 20,000-unit production guidance for 2025 is supply-constrained for the initial quarters. He also stated the Midsize platform is being led by the existing team and will be unveiled in late 2025 or early 2026.

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    John Murphy's questions to Lucid Group (LCID) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    John Murphy inquired about the lessons learned from the Lucid Air's price elasticity of demand and how they influenced the pricing strategy for the new Lucid Gravity SUV. He also asked about the potential for technology reuse from the Air and Gravity platforms for the upcoming Midsize vehicle and the current allocation of capital and resources to that project.

    Answer

    CEO & CTO Peter Rawlinson explained that the Lucid Gravity's competitive pricing is a direct result of its technological efficiency, particularly its smaller battery pack, which creates a significant bill of materials advantage. He stated this technology allows for a superior product at a better value. For the Midsize platform, Rawlinson confirmed that core software and control logic are transferable, but it will utilize a new, cost-focused 'Atlas' powertrain and architecture designed for high-volume production, emphasizing that the 'factory is the center of the cost down driver.'

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    John Murphy's questions to Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE (RIVN) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE (RIVN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    John Murphy requested a breakdown of the drivers for the projected gross profit improvement in 2025 and asked about the long-term volume growth potential for the R1 and commercial van platforms beyond 2025.

    Answer

    CFO Claire McDonough explained that the path to modest gross profit is driven by over $1 billion in high-margin Software & Services revenue, which offsets a negative automotive gross profit on a GAAP basis. CEO RJ Scaringe addressed long-term volume by highlighting the Normal plant's flexibility to produce R1, R2, and vans, providing resilience against cannibalization and allowing the company to adapt to market demand for each product line.

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    John Murphy's questions to Aptiv (APTV) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to Aptiv (APTV) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    John Murphy inquired about the potential incremental margin on sales if Aptiv's conservative North American production outlook proves too low, and asked about the customer mix in China within the latest $31 billion in bookings.

    Answer

    CEO Kevin P. Clark explained that while stronger North American production would yield traditional incremental margins of 18-22%, the company's conservative outlook is intentional due to geopolitical uncertainty and high D3 inventory. Regarding China, he confirmed a rapid and ongoing shift toward local OEMs, noting they gained significant share in 2024 and expect to reach market parity in revenue mix by early 2026.

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    John Murphy's questions to Aptiv (APTV) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    John Murphy inquired if Aptiv is positioned for a reacceleration in growth over market, given its increasing exposure to Chinese domestic OEMs, and asked about potential portfolio changes, particularly regarding recent investments in vision software partners.

    Answer

    CEO Kevin P. Clark stated that in a normalized environment, Aptiv is well-positioned for strong growth but reiterated that current OEM schedule volatility is the primary concern. He confirmed they are always evaluating the portfolio and explained the vision software investments are strategic moves to offer lower-cost, high-performance, localized solutions, especially for the China market.

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    John Murphy's questions to Adient (ADNT) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to Adient (ADNT) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    John Murphy of BofA Securities inquired about Adient's ability to react to lower-than-expected industry volumes, the current state of commercial recoveries with customers, and the confidence level in the timeline for underperforming European contracts to roll off by fiscal 2026.

    Answer

    Jerome Dorlack, President and CEO, explained that Adient demonstrated its resilience in fiscal 2024 by managing to an 8% decremental margin, far better than the typical 17-18%, through austerity measures and collaborative engineering savings via its 'ES3 program'. He expressed high confidence in the fiscal 2026 timeline for European contract roll-offs, citing clear end-of-production dates for two-thirds of the business. Mark Oswald, EVP and CFO, added that the guidance range accounts for the dynamic production environment.

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    John Murphy's questions to OPENLANE (KAR) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to OPENLANE (KAR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Asked about the timing of a significant industry-wide volume inflection point and whether any issues from the subprime consumer market are impacting the dealer financing business (AFC).

    Answer

    Executives expect the real acceleration in commercial off-lease volume in 2026, aligning with dealer expectations of inventory scarcity persisting until late 2025. For the AFC financing business, they are seeing improving risk metrics and no contagion from subprime consumer issues, attributing this to dealer discipline and strong risk management.

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    John Murphy's questions to OPENLANE (KAR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    John Murphy inquired about the timing of a significant industry-wide volume inflection, noting that dealers still report vehicle shortages. He also asked if any subprime consumer stress was creating contagion risk for the AFC dealer financing business.

    Answer

    CEO Peter Kelly acknowledged the six consecutive quarters of volume growth, attributing some dealer consignment increases to higher new car inventories. He concurred that a major off-lease volume acceleration is not expected until 2026. Both Kelly and CFO Brad Lakhia stated that AFC's risk metrics are actually improving, with no signs of contagion. Lakhia added that dealers are being more disciplined with inventory, which improves their credit profile, and AFC's strong risk management provides stability.

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    John Murphy's questions to OPENLANE (KAR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    John Murphy inquired about the timing of a significant inflection in industry-wide wholesale volume and asked if there were any signs of contagion from subprime consumer stress impacting the AFC dealer financing portfolio.

    Answer

    CEO Peter Kelly noted that while dealer consignment is improving due to higher new car inventories, a major acceleration in off-lease commercial volume is not expected until 2026. Regarding AFC, both Kelly and CFO Brad Lakhia confirmed they are seeing improving risk metrics, not signs of trouble. Lakhia added that dealers are being more disciplined with inventory levels, which improves their credit profile, and AFC's strong risk management insulates it from retail consumer credit issues.

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    John Murphy's questions to Ferrari (RACE) leadership

    John Murphy's questions to Ferrari (RACE) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    John Murphy asked about Ferrari's long-term strategy, questioning the balance between unit growth and price/mix given the order book is full until 2026, and whether current high margins near 2026 targets could be revised upwards.

    Answer

    CEO Benedetto Vigna confirmed that the company prioritizes a favorable mix and pricing over faster unit growth. CFO Antonio Piccon added that future margins depend on product mix and expenses, noting that H2 costs will increase and that the 2026 guidance remains firm.

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