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John Pawlowski

Managing Director at Green Street Advisors LLC

John Pawlowski is a Managing Director at Green Street Advisors LLC, specializing in residential and health care real estate research, including senior housing and apartment sectors. He provides analysis on market outlooks, such as projecting mid-90th percentile occupancy rates and low double-digit stabilized same-store NOI growth for senior living over the next five years, while highlighting low-risk profiles for assisted living and memory care amid economic uncertainties. Pawlowski has been quoted extensively on housing trends, renter net worth estimates around $5,500, and sector resilience to tariffs and supply constraints, drawing from his role previously as a senior analyst at the firm covering residential REITs like UDR.

John Pawlowski's questions to UDR (UDR) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

John Pawlowski followed up on the size of UDR's debt and preferred equity (DPE) program, questioning whether there is significant prepayment risk given the liquid credit markets and if this could lead to a more substantial decline in outstanding balances this year.

Answer

Thomas W. Toomey, Chairman, President and CEO, and David Bragg, CFO, UDR, responded. Dave Bragg stated that UDR is in constant dialogue with its DPE partners and does not foresee outsized prepayment risk. Instead, they anticipate a methodical pace of successful paybacks throughout the year, which will free up capital that can then be redeployed into the DPE book if attractive opportunities arise, or pivoted to other uses like share buybacks.

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Question · Q4 2025

John Pawlowski followed up on the size of UDR's debt and preferred equity program, asking if the liquid credit markets pose a significant prepayment risk that could lead to a more precipitous decline in outstanding balances, given the expected 10%-25% decline and a two-year weighted average maturity with a 10% contractual rate.

Answer

David Bragg, CFO of UDR, clarified that the company does not foresee outsized prepayment risk. He expects a methodical pace of successful paybacks throughout the year, which will free up capital. This capital can then be redeployed into the DPE book if attractive opportunities arise, or pivoted to other compelling uses of capital, such as share buybacks.

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John Pawlowski's questions to CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST (CPT) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

John Pawlowski followed up on development economics, asking for an estimate of current yields for the four properties in Camden Property Trust's pipeline, specifically how they are trending given recent market rent growth challenges.

Answer

President and CFO Alex Jessett clarified that the current pipeline consists of two deals (Baker in Denver and Gulch in Nashville) plus a couple of controlled sites. He stated that the controlled sites are penciling in the mid-5% range on an untrended basis, while Baker and Gulch are more challenging, with the company waiting for improved economics (e.g., further cost reductions or market clarity) before starting them, likely towards the end of the year.

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