Research Analyst at Mizuho Securities USA LLC
John Ezekiel Roberts is an equity research analyst at Mizuho Securities USA, specializing in the financial sector with a focus on U.S. banks and regional financial institutions. He covers a variety of publicly traded banks, delivering data-driven investment recommendations and insights that have been well-regarded for accuracy among institutional investors. With over 20 years of industry experience, Roberts has held analyst and associate roles at major investment banks prior to joining Mizuho Securities, steadily building a reputation for thorough analysis and sound judgment. He maintains FINRA registration, holds relevant securities licenses, and is recognized for professionalism and regulatory compliance in his field.
John Roberts asked if the European acetate tow closure would have any ripple effects across the rest of Celanese's acetates network, including upstream, downstream, or joint ventures.
Scott Richardson, President and CEO, stated that there would be no ripple effects.
John Roberts asked if the European acetate tow closure would have any ripple effects across the rest of the acetates network, including upstream, downstream, or joint ventures.
President and CEO Scott Richardson stated that there would be no ripple effects.
John Roberts from Mizuho Securities questioned whether the reduction in third-party acetic acid sales represents a structural shift away from a historically core strategy. He also asked about the potential structure of the MicroMax divestiture deal.
CEO & President Scott A. Richardson characterized the shift as cyclical, not structural, driven by currently unsustainable margins and a strategic pivot to more diverse downstream outlets. On the MicroMax deal, he stated the company is working to minimize complexity and is confident the outcome will not be overly complex.
John Roberts of Mizuho Financial Group questioned whether the decline in third-party acetic acid sales is a structural or cyclical change to the business model. He also asked about the potential complexity of the upcoming MicroMax divestiture deal.
CEO & President Scott A. Richardson characterized the shift away from third-party acetic sales as a cyclical pivot, not a structural change, driven by current unsustainable margins and an increased ability to move volume to more diverse downstream products. He noted the business is far less reliant on third-party sales than it was a decade ago. Regarding the MicroMax deal, Richardson stated the company is working to minimize complexity and is confident the outcome will not be overly complicated.
John Roberts from Mizuho Securities questioned if the decline in third-party acetic acid sales is a structural or cyclical change. He also asked whether the pending MicroMax divestiture would be a simple all-cash deal.
CEO Scott A. Richardson characterized the decline in third-party sales as not structural, but a reflection of current market dynamics and a strategic pivot to downstream products, which has diversified the business. He noted the company is now less reliant on these sales than in the past. Regarding the MicroMax deal, he stated the goal is to minimize complexity and they are confident of achieving an outcome that is not 'super complex'.
John Roberts asked for details on the electronic inks business being divested and inquired about the specific change that allowed for the restart of China JV dividend distributions.
CEO Scott Richardson described the electronic inks business as good but outside the core EM portfolio of thermoplastics. He explained they held it to implement their operating model, and now that it has better growth prospects, it is the right time to sell. Regarding the dividend, he clarified that a change in Chinese law now requires an annual audit to be completed first, which simply shifts the timing of payments to the last three quarters of the year.
John Ezekiel Roberts asked for clarification on the new joint venture (JV) rules in China, questioning if they apply to all JVs or are specific to Celanese's situation.
CEO Scott Richardson explained that the change is related to rules governing certain JVs, which now require an audit to be completed before dividends can be paid. He noted this audit will be completed in the first part of the year, and dividend payments from the JVs should resume in Q2. He indicated this is a rule change that Celanese's JVs are now subject to.
John Roberts of Mizuho Securities asked if Celanese would reconsider a combination of its Acetow business, similar to a plan that was dropped in 2018.
CEO Lori Ryerkerk stated that the company does not see an opportunity to revisit a combination for the Acetow business. She explained that its value is best maximized by being fully integrated within the Acetyl Chain, and the regulatory hurdles that existed in the past likely remain.
John Roberts from Mizuho Securities asked if Air Products still plans to pursue ammonia cracking in Europe and if they are currently building an ammonia cracker there.
CEO Eduardo Menezes explained that Air Products is awaiting final European regulations on RFNBO fuel mandates, expected by March 2026, to determine the market size for green hydrogen. He noted that even small mandates would create substantial demand, which could be met by local production or imported ammonia cracking. A final investment decision (FID) on an ammonia cracker in Europe is contingent on these regulations, market development, and securing off-take agreements.
John Roberts asked if Air Products is still anticipating ammonia cracking in Europe and if they are building an ammonia cracker there.
Eduardo Menezes, CEO, stated that Air Products is awaiting final regulatory clarity in Europe, expected by March 2026, regarding RFNBO fuel mandates. He noted that while local production is an option, importing and cracking green ammonia from Saudi Arabia is competitive. He emphasized the need for market development and off-take agreements before making a final investment decision (FID) on an ammonia cracker.
John Roberts from Mizuho Financial Group inquired about the progress of securing third-party partners for the Darrow, Louisiana blue ammonia and carbon capture project.
CEO Eduardo Menezes stated that Air Products is optimistic about finalizing partnerships by the end of the current year. He noted that recent industry announcements for similar projects validate the cost-competitiveness and scale advantages of the Darrow facility. Menezes affirmed the project's strong fundamentals and mentioned a dedicated team is actively negotiating the necessary agreements.
John Roberts of Mizuho asked if Air Products expects to recover any of the capital already spent on the carbon capture (CCS) and ammonia portions of the Louisiana project, and how such a recovery might be structured.
CEO Eduardo Menezes confirmed that the work and site development already completed for CCS and ammonia have value. While he could not comment on active negotiations, he stated the company's goal is to monetize that value, either by rolling it into new partnership agreements for the project or through a stand-alone transaction.
John Roberts from Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. asked about the differing roles of the Chairman and Vice Chairman and inquired about the nature of the upgrades being performed at the Uzbekistan facility.
An executive deferred the question on board roles, citing the ongoing leadership transition. Chief Financial Officer Melissa Schaeffer explained the Uzbekistan work is a planned maintenance turnaround to bring the acquired asset up to Air Products' standards, the cost of which was factored into the original acquisition plan.
John Roberts inquired about the timeline for appointing a new President, suggesting the process might conclude sooner than the company's stated target given the Board's likely ongoing engagement with potential candidates.
Chairman, President and CEO Seifi Ghasemi reiterated that an announcement is not expected until the March-May 2025 timeframe. He stressed the importance of a thorough process by the Board to find a candidate who meets the strict criteria of being a current or former CEO of a public company, which may also involve navigating the candidate's obligations to their current role.
John Roberts asked for an update on discussions with MSCI regarding reclassification and the timing for a pro forma balance sheet for the new DuPont.
CFO Antonella Franzen stated that progress is being made towards an industry classification change, noting CUNY's successful semiconductor classification. She expects MSCI and S&P to review the new DuPont's classification upon the upcoming Form 10-K filing. She also mentioned that an 8-K with pro forma information was filed recently, and the year-end 10-K will recast historical periods for the new DuPont.
John Roberts inquired about the discussions with MSCI regarding reclassification, asking if a pro forma balance sheet would be provided or if they would wait for the year-end balance sheet for New DuPont.
Antonella Franzen, Chief Financial Officer, stated that progress is being made on industry classification change, noting CUNY's semiconductor classification. She mentioned that S&P and MSCI typically wait for publicly filed information (Form 10-K) and emphasized that consistent performance drives valuation more than classification. She also confirmed an 8-K filing with pro forma information and that year-end financials will recast historical periods for the new DuPont.
John Roberts of Mizuho Financial Group asked how a potential divestiture would impact the minimum EBITDA requirement in the agreement with Chemours and Corteva, and whether acquisitions might come first.
CEO Lori Koch explained that the minimum EBITDA floor will be reset for both New DuPont and Qunity upon separation, with a built-in cushion to allow for portfolio changes. She noted the intent would be to redeploy any divestiture proceeds into M&A to maintain growth and comply with the agreement.
John Roberts of Mizuho Financial Group asked about the minimum EBITDA requirement in the agreement with Chemours and Corteva and how much EBITDA could be divested without violating the covenant.
CEO Lori Koch explained that the minimum EBITDA floor will be reset for both New DuPont and Qunity upon separation, providing a cushion for each entity. She noted that the intent would be to redeploy any divestment proceeds into M&A, mitigating any risk of breaching the agreement.
John Roberts requested more granular detail on the composition of the Diversified Industrials segment and asked if the upcoming 10-Q would provide additional reporting detail.
CEO Lori Koch provided a breakdown of the Diversified Industrials segment, which includes Shelter (~$1.7B), Next-gen Mobility (~$1B), Aramids (~$1.3B), and Printing & Packaging. She confirmed that post-separation, reporting will be further disaggregated to provide more detail on these businesses as well as on Healthcare and Water.
John Roberts asked if IndustrialsCo will be renamed, about progress on industry reclassification, and how the Water business will be reported within the new structure.
CEO Lori Koch confirmed that IndustrialsCo will retain the 'DuPont' name. CFO Antonella Franzen added that the company is actively working to achieve an 'industrial' reclassification post-separation and that Water will be a distinct, reportable segment within the new DuPont.
John Roberts of Mizuho Securities asked about the proportion of electronics sales from China and the split between local production versus imports. He also inquired about the performance of the advanced mobility business amid the slowdown in EV and ICE vehicle markets.
CEO Lori Koch clarified that China represents about 30% of electronics sales, with roughly half being for domestic consumption ('China for China') and the other half for global export. She added that the advanced mobility business continues to perform well, citing a recent long-term win with a major European OEM for battery adhesives, despite muted overall auto market growth expectations.
John Roberts asked if IFF has observed any acceleration in the reformulation of food products and if this trend is contributing to the continued strength in the flavors business.
CEO Erik Fyrwald noted a continued, rather than accelerated, move towards cleaner labels, which benefits IFF. He attributed growth to IFF's strong capabilities in scent, taste, and naturals, and its focus on innovation and commercial capabilities to help customers. CFO Michael DeVeau added that the improved innovation pipeline indicates customers are seeking more innovation, providing a tailwind for the scent and taste segments. Erik Fyrwald reiterated that customers are pushing for more innovation in a lower volume growth market.
John Roberts asked if IFF has observed any acceleration in the reformulation of food products and if this is contributing to the continued strength in the flavors business.
CEO Erik Fyrwald stated that IFF hasn't seen a big shift yet but noted a continued move towards cleaner labels and reformulation, which is favorable for IFF. He attributed growth to IFF's strong capabilities in scent, taste, and naturals, and its focus on innovation and commercial capabilities to help customers. CFO Michael DeVeau added that the improved and continuously improving pipeline indicates customers are seeking more innovation, providing buoyancy and tailwind for the scent and taste businesses.
John Roberts requested quantification of performance within the Health & Biosciences segment, asking about the strength of its better-performing businesses and the expected decline in the Health sub-segment.
CEO J. Erik Fyrwald reported that Food Biosciences and Home & Personal Care are performing very well, and Animal Nutrition is strong but in a slowing market. He identified Health as the 'real challenging area,' with customers signaling a second-half slowdown. He noted that investments in the R&D pipeline are expected to yield results starting in 2026.
John Roberts of Mizuho asked for the prior-year growth figures for the newly separated Taste and Food Ingredients segments to better understand their two-year stacked growth trends.
CFO Michael DeVeau provided the data, noting that the Taste segment grew 11% in Q1 2024 and 7% in Q1 2025, resulting in a strong 9% two-year stacked growth rate. For Food Ingredients, he reported a 4% decline in both periods but clarified that the 2024 decline was driven by strategic price reductions, meaning the two-year volume trend is stronger than the revenue figures suggest.
John Roberts inquired about the extent of IFF's raw material spend that is potentially exposed to tariffs and whether the concern is limited to U.S. imports or includes reciprocal actions globally.
CFO Michael DeVeau stated that IFF does not anticipate a material impact from potential tariff changes. He emphasized that the company's expansive and flexible global supply chain provides the ability to adapt. DeVeau mentioned that IFF would work with customers on mitigation strategies, including price surcharges as a secondary measure if necessary, drawing on the company's experience from similar situations in the past.
John Roberts from Mizuho asked for confirmation on the timeline for separately reporting Flavors and Functional Ingredients and inquired about the source of incremental volume strength in the second half, questioning if it was driven by customer promotional activity.
CFO Glenn Richter confirmed IFF is on track to report Flavors and Functional Ingredients separately starting in Q1 2025, with historical data provided. CEO Jon Erik Fyrwald added that presidents for the new 'Taste' and 'Food Ingredients' divisions have been named internally. Richter noted that Q3 volume strength was broad-based and attributed it to market share gains from a renewed focus on innovation and commercial excellence, while remaining cautious for Q4.
John Roberts inquired about the regional volatility and stability of Cabot's rubber-black operating rates, specifically asking if shifts have stabilized or remain volatile. He also asked about the impact of Dow's silicone rationalization efforts in Europe on Cabot's operations.
CEO and President Sean Keohane confirmed that rubber-black operating rates are largely stable, influenced by elevated tire imports, with North America showing stable levels. Regarding Dow, Mr. Keohane acknowledged the closure of Dow's siloxanes plant in Barry, Wales, and stated that Cabot is in discussions with Dow regarding their long-term feedstock agreement for the co-located fume silica plant, which extends through 2028.
John Roberts asked about the regional volatility and stability of rubber-black operating rates and the impact of Dow's silicone rationalization efforts in Europe on Cabot.
Sean Keohane, CEO and President, stated that rubber-black operating rates were largely stable, influenced by elevated tire imports, with North America showing stable levels. Regarding Dow's silicone rationalization, Mr. Keohane confirmed ongoing discussions with Dow about their long-term feedstock agreement following the announced closure of their siloxanes plant in Barry, Wales.
John Ezekiel Roberts from Mizuho Securities asked for a detailed reconciliation of the Reinforcement Materials volume guidance, which shifted from low-single-digit growth to a low-single-digit decline for the fiscal year. He also inquired whether U.S. tire imports had accelerated in anticipation of tariffs.
CEO and President Sean Keohane provided a regional breakdown of volume performance, highlighting weakness in South America due to contract outcomes and Chinese tire imports, a normalized Lunar New Year in China leading to lower production, and stable volumes in Europe. He explained the guidance evolved from an initial 'up low-single-digits' forecast to the current 'down low-single-digits' due to downgrades in tire production outlooks and increasing customer caution. Keohane also clarified that U.S. tire import levels were roughly flat year-over-year.
John Roberts from Mizuho Group asked if Cabot benefits from increased Asian tire imports into the U.S. and whether rising oil prices would require price hikes in Specialty Blacks to preserve margins.
CEO Sean Keohane responded that while Cabot's global footprint allows it to capture volume from Asian producers, the shift is a margin headwind as Western regions are more profitable. He confirmed that for Specialty Blacks, which are largely spot-priced, the company would indeed adjust prices to manage margins against rising input costs, citing a strong track record of doing so.
John Ezekiel Roberts of Mizuho Securities inquired about potential slowdowns in the silica business for semiconductor and automotive applications, and also asked for details on the revenue capacity and economics of the planned U.S. EV battery materials plant.
CEO and President Sean Keohane responded that semiconductor application volumes have normalized after previous weakness and are running at fairly normal rates. For automotive, he noted the calendar 2025 production growth outlook has been revised slightly downward to just under 2%. Regarding the EV battery plant, Keohane detailed a targeted 2028 startup, total capital of approximately $180 million (with a $50 million DOE grant), and an expected IRR in the 20% range.
John Roberts asked about the expected use of Renew in PET bottles, specifically if it will be consistent, blended at different levels, and if there will be differentiated marketing around Renew in bottles.
Board Chair and CEO Mark Costa confirmed that different brands are making choices about the percentage of recycled content (e.g., 50% to 100%) in their bottles, tied to marketing and corporate goals. Eastman's flexible assets can seamlessly provide various levels of recycled content. He expects the average recycled content for specialties and ARPET combined to be around 50% for a while, with a potential ramp-up to higher levels as the economy stabilizes and customers can afford the premium.
John Roberts inquired about the use of Renew in PET bottles, asking if it's expected to be used consistently, blended at different levels, and if there will be differentiated marketing around Renew in bottles.
Mark Costa, Board Chair and CEO, confirmed that different brands are making choices about the percentage of recycled content (e.g., 50% to 100%) they want in bottles, tying into marketing and corporate goals. He stated that Eastman can seamlessly provide whatever level of recycled content is desired. He estimated an average recycled content of 50%-75% for specialties and rPET combined, expecting it to ramp up as the economy stabilizes.
John Roberts of Mizuho asked if the opportunity in solar heat transfer fluids is now considered dead, given project delays and the current political environment.
Board Chair and CEO Mark Costa confirmed that solar is no longer a significant focus for the heat transfer fluids business. He highlighted the successful strategic diversification into other applications, particularly high-value fluids for the LNG industry, which has created a new growth driver for the business expected to contribute more significantly in 2026 and beyond.
John Ezekiel Roberts of Mizuho asked if the methanolysis unit is currently operating at full rates. He also inquired about the timing and destination segment for the Aventa product line, which is currently reported in Corporate & Other.
CEO Mark Costa stated that the methanolysis plant is not currently running at full rates as it is in the final stages of restarting after a planned, site-wide maintenance shutdown. Regarding the Aventa product, Costa indicated it will likely be moved out of the Corporate & Other segment sometime next year, but a final decision on whether it will land in the Advanced Materials or Fibers segment is still under consideration.
John Roberts asked if China's rapidly lowering electrolyzer prices might lead to a recovery in green hydrogen and ammonia, which have been quiet sectors.
Sanjiv Lamba, CEO, acknowledged the declining cost curve for Chinese electrolyzers but highlighted more fundamental challenges for renewable hydrogen: scalability (small MW stacks), reliability (24/7 operation), and capital efficiency (requiring a 60-70% cost reduction). He also pointed out the increasing scarcity of renewable energy due to demand from data centers and AI.
John Roberts from Mizuho Securities asked if China's rapidly lowering electrolyzer prices might lead to a recovery in green hydrogen and ammonia, which have been quiet recently.
CEO Sanjiv Lamba acknowledged China's declining cost curve for alkaline electrolyzers but highlighted more fundamental issues for renewable hydrogen: scalability (small stack sizes, hundreds of modules needed for large facilities), reliability (24/7 operation challenges), and capital efficiency (needs 60-70% cost reduction). He also noted the increasing scarcity of renewable energy due to demand from data centers and AI.
John Roberts of Mizuho Financial Group asked about the long-term role of energy transition projects in the backlog, referencing the idea of 'green crushing' where companies invest quietly without fanfare.
CEO Sanjiv Lamba agreed with the sentiment, stating that the 'hype and euphoria' are gone, replaced by a focus on stable, economically viable projects. He reiterated Linde's long-held view that low-carbon hydrogen (blue hydrogen) projects with solid economics, supported by incentives like 45Q, will continue to move forward and get contracted, validating Linde's disciplined approach.
John Roberts of Mizuho asked whether Linde's pricing would accelerate if general inflation picks up, or if the weak macroeconomic backdrop could create a disconnect between inflation and pricing power.
Sanjiv Lamba, Chief Executive Officer, stated unequivocally that Linde is an 'inflation play' and likes inflation. He affirmed that there is no divergence from their long-standing model where pricing acts as a proxy for globally weighted CPI, and they expect to continue moving prices forward with inflation.
John Roberts from Mizuho asked for a characterization of the current helium market and whether a competitor's recent large, non-recurring sale would impact industry prices.
CEO Sanjiv Lamba described the helium market as stable, with flattish demand and ample supply in regions like Asia due to Russian imports. He stated that pricing remains stable following corrections made 12-18 months ago. He views the competitor's transaction as a normal shift in supply and demand that is not expected to impact the overall market.
John Roberts asked about network density in large new projects, questioning if all excess products from an ASU/ATR combination could be sold and what portion of output an anchor customer would represent.
CEO Sanjiv Lamba used the Dow project as an example, explaining it is highly integrated. The oxygen from the ASU is largely consumed by the ATR, leaving little surplus. While Dow is the anchor customer for a large part of the product slate, the project is intentionally designed to produce surplus hydrogen. This surplus will serve as the foundation for building out a broader hydrogen supply network in Alberta, a key strategic goal.
John Roberts asked if Westlake had an opportunity to bid for the OxyChem business and if antitrust concerns were a significant factor for the company or for OxyChem itself.
Steven Bender, EVP and CFO, stated he could not discuss specific transactions but acknowledged that Westlake is a large player and must be mindful of potential regulatory issues for such a large transaction. He affirmed that Westlake constantly seeks good opportunities in both the HIP and PEM segments that offer real synergy, value, and growth.
John Roberts asked if Westlake had an opportunity to bid for the OxyChem business and whether antitrust concerns, particularly with the current administration, were a factor.
Steve Bender (EVP and CFO) declined to comment on specific transactions but acknowledged that Westlake, as a significant player, must consider potential regulatory issues for large acquisitions. He affirmed the company's continuous search for synergistic, value-added growth opportunities across both its HIP and PEM segments.
John Roberts of Mizuho questioned Westlake's M&A strategy, asking if valuations in the Performance and Essential Materials (PEM) segment could become attractive enough to warrant a significant acquisition, or if the company's focus remains exclusively on the HIP side.
EVP & CFO Steven Bender explained that Westlake evaluates opportunities across both its HIP and PEM segments. He clarified that the decision to pursue an acquisition is driven by valuation opportunities rather than a strict bias toward one segment, and the company would act on compelling chemical deals if they arise.
John Roberts of Mizuho Securities inquired about Westlake's progress in gaining market share with distributors through its broad product offering in the HIP segment. He asked whether the current competitive environment makes it easier or harder to achieve these gains.
M. Bender, EVP and CFO, affirmed that the company expects continued revenue growth in the HIP business, which speaks to successful share gains. He highlighted that the broad product portfolio is attractive to home builders, driving penetration with distributor customers and leading to good growth across the product range.
John Roberts sought more detailed volume commentary for the PEM portfolio beyond export polyethylene, given the segment's modest 1% growth. He also asked if the Louisiana tax law change would affect go-forward tax rates.
EVP and CFO Steve Bender indicated that volume pressures within PEM were concentrated in the chlorovinyls chain. Regarding taxes, he confirmed that the 2025 effective tax rate guidance of 23% already incorporates the legislative changes, and the company is in discussions with the state to mitigate the economic impact.
John Roberts from Mizuho Group asked for details on the specific 'learnings' from the recent plant outages that could help mitigate similar issues in the future.
President and CEO Jean-Marc Gilson explained that the LACC outage stemmed from a design issue during construction, which has now been rectified. The Plaquemine outage involved a power unit, prompting a review of similar equipment across other facilities. He characterized these as part of a continuous improvement process.
John Roberts asked about the demand shift in the Material Solutions segment between Q2 and Q3, inquiring if Q3 benefited from customer inventory build or if Q4 anticipates destocking. He also questioned if product rationalization for U.S.-produced products into China would cause a material sales drag in 2026.
CFO Linda LaGorga clarified that the demand shift reference was related to Q2-Q3 due to the evolving trade environment. CEO Dave Reeder stated that Entegris' local-for-local manufacturing strategy for China (80%+ by end of 2025, 90%+ in 2026) means no material sales drag is expected in 2026, with strong China and Asia sales performance noted.
John Roberts of Mizuho Financial Group inquired about sales trends across different channels: direct to fabs, to equipment makers, and to chemical suppliers. He also asked which products are not feasible to move to Asia as part of the 'local for local' manufacturing strategy.
CEO Bertrand Loy detailed that fab revenue was up low-single-digits sequentially, sales to equipment makers were down modestly, and sales to chemical companies were down mid-single-digits. Regarding localization, Loy explained that while he wouldn't give product specifics, some lower-volume, non-strategic SKUs would not have redundant manufacturing sites and would be consolidated in either the U.S. or Asia.
John Roberts of Mizuho asked for commentary on the business tone when comparing mainstream versus advanced applications. He also inquired if any unexpected issues have emerged from the public comment period for the new semiconductor tariffs.
CEO Bertrand Loy stated that the Advanced Logic business remains very strong, as seen in Q1's robust Taiwan revenue driven by AI applications. This contrasts with continued headwinds from reduced operations in mainstream fabs globally. On tariffs, he noted there is still significant uncertainty, which is why Entegris has refrained from updating its full-year guidance.
John Roberts asked for a characterization of the mainstream business segment, questioning whether it is stable or still declining compared to the strength in advanced logic and AI.
CEO Bertrand Loy confirmed that mainstream was an area of weakness in 2024 and is expected to remain muted in early 2025, in contrast to the significant growth seen in advanced logic and AI. He noted this trend is positive for Entegris, as the company has a much larger content-per-wafer opportunity in advanced logic.
John Ezekiel Roberts asked for clarification on when the AMH and MC divisions would be combined for reporting and the rationale for not merging all divisions into a single segment.
CEO Bertrand Loy confirmed the AMH and MC divisions will be reported as a combined segment starting in Q4 2024. He explained the decision was based on the success of a prior merger (SCM and EPS) and the strong synergies between AMH and MC, which serve similar customers and applications. Loy justified maintaining two distinct segments to align with the company's two core value propositions: Materials Purity and Materials Solutions.
John Roberts from Mizuho asked if Element Solutions Inc's volume pickup in the industrial metal plating business was due to share gain opportunities as MKS exits the Atotech industrial metal plating business. He also inquired whether Micromax would be reported within the existing assembly or circuitry subsegments, or as a standalone segment, and if it would be reported ex-metals.
President and CEO Benjamin Gliklich stated he could not comment on specific competitors but affirmed that Element Solutions Inc's industrial business has been growing nicely, executing well, and outgrowing its market, indicating some share gain. Regarding Micromax, he does not expect it to be reported within the assembly or circuitry subsegments but rather as a standalone segment. Mr. Gliklich confirmed that Micromax will be reported ex-metals to provide a clearer picture of organic volume and appropriate margins.
John Roberts asked if Element Solutions Inc's volume pickup in the industrial metal plating business was due to share gain opportunities as MKS exits the Atotech industrial metal plating business. He also inquired whether Micromax would be reported within existing subsegments (assembly or circuitry) or as a standalone entity, and if it would be reported 'X Metals'.
President and CEO Benjamin Gliklich stated he couldn't speak to specific competitors but confirmed that Element Solutions Inc's industrial business has been growing nicely, executing well, and outgrowing its market with some share gain due to its strong capabilities. Regarding Micromax, Mr. Gliklich expects it to be reported standalone, not within existing subsegments, and confirmed it would be reported 'X Metals' to provide a clearer picture of organic volume and appropriate margins.
John Roberts of Mizuho Financial Group questioned the significant outperformance of Industrial EBITDA growth relative to sales growth and asked about the company's target leverage ratio.
President and CEO Benjamin Gliklich attributed the strong Industrial EBITDA growth to a shift in corporate cost allocation and a favorable mix effect from the high-margin Offshore business, which grew 15% organically. Regarding capital structure, he confirmed the company's target ceiling for leverage is 3.5x net debt to EBITDA, though they prefer to operate with capacity.
John Roberts from Mizuho Financial Group questioned the sustainability of the Industrial segment's strong EBITDA growth relative to its sales growth and asked for the company's current view on its target leverage ratio.
President & CEO Benjamin Gliklich attributed the Industrial segment's outperformance to a shift in corporate cost allocation and a favorable mix effect from the high-margin Offshore business. Regarding leverage, he stated the target ceiling remains 3.5x net debt to EBITDA, emphasizing that the company likes to operate with capacity and its capital allocation framework is independent of the current leverage ratio.
John Roberts asked if the Q1 results and Q2 guidance include a bonus accrual consistent with previous full-year targets. He also inquired about any expected differences in seasonality for the remainder of the year compared to 2024.
CEO Ben Gliklich confirmed that the company is running with "full OpEx," including bonus accruals, and has not yet used the lever to reduce them. He explained that last year's Q2 was unusually strong due to smartphone pre-builds shifting from Q3, and the company is assuming a more "normal" seasonal pattern for the current year, with consistent demand from Q1 into Q2.
John Roberts of Mizuho Securities asked if the company would consider consolidating its electronics reporting segments, similar to peers. He also questioned the company's comfort level with leverage and how long it might operate at a relatively low level.
CEO Benjamin Gliklich responded that there is no desire to resegment; in fact, the company aims to provide more, not less, clarity on its distinct verticals. On capital structure, Gliklich emphasized an opportunistic approach, stating they have no desire to rush capital deployment and are comfortable with the current balance sheet flexibility, even though their stated leverage ceiling is 3.5x.
John Roberts from Mizuho Securities asked for the estimated size of the Advanced Packaging business and questioned how the easing of China's EV stimulus might affect the outperforming Circuitry segment in the fourth quarter.
CEO Benjamin Gliklich estimated the Advanced Packaging business generates a 'couple of hundred million dollars' in revenue and is growing rapidly. He acknowledged that while China EVs are a driver for the Circuitry segment, its outperformance is also due to strength in data storage and high-performance computing, giving him confidence for continued strong results despite any single market's seasonality.
John Roberts asked for PPG's view on the overall Chinese OEM vehicle outlook, specifically addressing BYD's recent sales decline and the potential impact of anti-involution actions on the coatings industry.
Chairman and CEO Tim Knavish acknowledged BYD's competitive challenges but noted overall strong auto growth in China, where PPG is outperforming the market. He expects low to mid-single-digit growth for the industry. CFO Vince Morales added that anti-involution actions are not seen as an issue for the chemical industry, which continues to provide significant output.
John Roberts from Mizuho asked for PPG's perspective on the overall Chinese OEM vehicle outlook, particularly in light of BYD's recent sales performance, and whether anti-involution actions in China would impact the coatings industry.
Chairman and CEO Tim Knavish acknowledged BYD's disappointing quarter but noted strong overall auto growth in China, with PPG outpacing the market. He expects low to mid-single-digit growth for the industry and PPG in China. CFO Vince Morales added that PPG outgrew the industry in China and other regions, and anti-involution actions are not seen as an issue for the chemical industry in the short or midterm, as it continues to provide significant output.
John Roberts from Mizuho Financial Group asked about the moderation in share buyback activity in Q2, the outlook for repurchases in the second half, and whether potential M&A was competing for capital.
CEO Timothy Knavish explained that Q2 buybacks were lower because Q1 activity was elevated by divestiture proceeds. He reiterated his commitment to deploying cash and continuing buybacks if no better value-creating opportunities arise. On M&A, he stated that the pipeline currently consists of small deals, with no material transactions on the short-term horizon that would alter their capital return strategy.
John Roberts of Mizuho Financial Group inquired about the outlook for share repurchase activity in the second half of the year and whether M&A could compete for capital.
Chairman & CEO Timothy Knavish reaffirmed his commitment to not letting cash accumulate on the balance sheet, stating that buybacks will continue if they represent the best use of cash. He explained the lower buyback amount in Q2 was because Q1 was elevated by divestiture proceeds. On M&A, Knavish noted the pipeline consists of very small potential deals that would not materially affect the company's capital allocation strategy in the near term.
John Ezekiel Roberts of Mizuho Securities asked about the potential timeline for customers to reposition production due to tariffs and whether PPG anticipates having to idle any of its auto OEM paint lines as a result.
CEO Timothy Knavish stated he does not expect to idle any factories, though staffing may be flexed as needed. He emphasized PPG's global footprint allows it to follow customers wherever they move production. CFO Vince Morales reiterated that PPG's batch process manufacturing provides flexibility and that no significant changes in customer order patterns had been observed through April.
John Roberts inquired about the valuation multiple for the divested architectural coatings business and asked whether the transaction represents a clean exit for PPG, aside from stranded corporate costs.
Chairman and CEO Timothy Knavish reported that the business, with approximately $2 billion in sales and low single-digit EBITDA margins, was sold at a 14x multiple. He confirmed it is a clean break, involving some transitionary service agreements and an ongoing exclusive supply agreement. SVP and CFO Vince Morales added that the business's stand-alone manufacturing and distribution facilities simplify the separation process.
John Roberts asked for an update on the 'seats in the seats' metric for the hospitality business, noting mixed trends in the full-service restaurant market.
Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO of Ecolab, clarified that he uses 'food traffic' as the metric, noting that it remains down 30% compared to 2019 due to a third of consumers opting for takeaway, delivery, or drive-through. He observed a stabilization of food traffic and highlighted that Ecolab's digital solutions have enabled the hospitality business to grow nicely with better margins despite lower volume. Beck also mentioned strong performance in the Specialty business, particularly QSR (fast food), which is growing in the high single digits.
John Roberts asked for an update on the 'seats in the seats' metric (food traffic) in the hospitality business, given the mixed trends in the full-service restaurant market.
Christophe Beck, Ecolab's Chairman and CEO, clarified that 'food traffic' is the relevant term, noting it remains down 30% compared to 2019, with a third of consumers opting for takeaway, delivery, or drive-through. He observed a stabilization of food traffic and highlighted that Ecolab's digital solutions have enabled strong growth and higher margins in the hospitality industry despite reduced volume. Beck also mentioned strong performance in the Specialty business, particularly in QSR (fast food), which is growing in the high single digits.
John Roberts of Mizuho Securities inquired about the pipeline for mergers and acquisitions, noting the company's strong balance sheet and the time since the last major deal.
Christophe Beck, Chairman & CEO, confirmed that Ecolab has a strong M&A pipeline focused on its priority areas: Water (high-tech), Life Sciences, and Digital. While emphasizing a disciplined approach to capital deployment, he noted the company's low leverage provides significant flexibility for both inorganic growth and share buybacks, alongside its primary investments in dividends and organic growth.
John Roberts from Mizuho asked if the new surcharge is primarily intended to cover rising costs associated with dispensing equipment, such as dishwashers or 3D TRASAR machines.
Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO, clarified that the surcharge is not solely for dispensing equipment. While some equipment is imported from China, the surcharge also covers costs for chemistry and packaging from the region. He emphasized that the direct impact is on roughly $100 million of imports, but the larger driver is the derivative impact of broad-based onshoring in the U.S., which is increasing purchasing costs across the board. He described the numbers as manageable and mitigatable through the surcharge.
John Roberts inquired about recent accidents in the Pest Elimination segment, asking for a breakdown of the earnings headwind between accident costs and investment spending.
Christophe Beck, Chairman and CEO, stressed the company's commitment to safety and clarified that the majority of the operating income decrease in the Pest Elimination segment was driven by costs related to a few unfortunate accidents. He indicated the impact was primarily contained to Q4, with a small residual effect expected in Q1.
John Roberts asked if Ecolab's sales force pivots to use food safety outbreaks at other companies as a 'teaching moment' to drive greater market penetration.
CEO Christophe Beck explained that while these events are tragic, Ecolab does not use them as a direct sales opportunity. Instead, the company approaches them as a 'learning opportunity,' offering services to the affected companies and sharing insights with existing customers to prevent future incidents. He noted that these affected companies often become Ecolab customers over time.
John Roberts asked for an assessment of the industry-wide gallon decline in the U.S. by subsegment, specifically inquiring which subsegments are experiencing low, mid, or high single-digit gallon decreases.
Jim Jaye, SVP of Investor Relations and Communications, stated that industry gallons are likely down again this year, continuing a trend observed since the COVID-19 pandemic. While declining to provide specific breakdowns by end market, he indicated that various market signals, such as existing home sales, single-family starts, and property maintenance, suggest that gallons are 'challenged across most of our end markets.' He emphasized Sherwin-Williams' consistent outperformance as their primary objective.
John Roberts asked for an estimate of industry gallon declines in the U.S. by subsegment, specifically if any are down low, mid, or high single digits.
SVP of Investor Relations and Communications Jim Jaye indicated that industry gallons are likely to be down again in 2025, continuing a trend since COVID. While not providing specific subsegment numbers, he noted that signals like existing home sales, single-family starts, and property maintenance suggest gallons are challenged across most end markets. He emphasized Sherwin-Williams' outperformance in all these markets as a key takeaway.
John Roberts from Mizuho Financial Group inquired about the sources of the announced capital expenditure reductions and asked if there would be a meaningful cash tax benefit from accelerated depreciation.
SVP of Finance & CFO Al Mestyshin explained that the CapEx reduction from $900 million to $730 million reflects the deferral, not cancellation, of certain projects to align cash flow with the current demand environment. He confirmed that key strategic projects, such as the Statesville plant and warehouse automation, are proceeding as planned. The question on tax benefits was not directly addressed.
John Roberts of Mizuho Financial Group asked for details on where the announced capital expenditure reductions were being made and inquired about any potential cash tax benefits from accelerated depreciation.
CFO Allen Mistysyn stated that the CapEx reduction from $900 million to $730 million involves slowing down and pushing back certain projects rather than outright cancellations. He confirmed that key strategic projects, like the Statesville capacity expansion and warehouse automation, will continue.
John Roberts asked about the drivers behind the high single-digit growth in the Protective & Marine business and whether disruption at competitors was contributing to share gains.
Executive Heidi Petz confirmed that Sherwin-Williams is 'gaining strength and gaining momentum' in the segment. She attributed the growth to strength in oil and gas, water/wastewater, and high-value infrastructure projects. Petz highlighted a strong project pipeline and the company's unique ability to deliver complex solutions at scale as key differentiators driving share gains.
John Roberts asked whether the non-residential market is expected to be down for the entirety of 2025 or if easier comps in the second half could lead to positive growth.
SVP & CFO Allen Mistysyn acknowledged that positive comps are possible if macroeconomic factors like interest rates improve. However, he reiterated the expectation for a drop in commercial completions in the second half, which the company aims to mitigate by aggressively pursuing opportunities in segments like Protective & Marine and residential repaint.
John Ezekiel Roberts noted the divergence between sales and earnings changes in the Consumer Brands Group and asked if a change in intersegment transfers was a significant factor.
Executive Allen Mistysyn clarified that the allocation methodology was unchanged. The profit improvement was driven by better performance and cost control within the Global Supply Chain operations, which are part of the segment. Executive Heidi Petz added that prior portfolio optimization, including divestitures, has created a stronger, more profitable baseline for the business.
John Roberts requested an update on the Radnor Propellants contract bidding process and Olin's metals hedging strategy and expectations.
Ken Lane, President and CEO, described the slow government process for Radnor Propellants, expecting a decision no earlier than late next year and a potential transition in 2027. Todd Slater, CFO, explained Olin's rolling four-quarter metals hedging program, anticipating metal costs, particularly copper, to be a headwind in 2026 relative to 2025.
John Roberts requested an update on the Radnor Propellants contract bidding process and Olin's current expectations regarding metals hedging for the upcoming year.
President and CEO Ken Lane described the Radnor Propellants contract process as slow due to government involvement, with a decision not expected until late 2026 at the earliest and a potential transition in 2027. CFO Todd Slater stated Olin operates a rolling four-quarter hedging program and anticipates metal costs, such as copper, to be a headwind in 2026 compared to 2025.
John Roberts of Mizuho Securities asked for a quantification of the potential financial headwind if a 50% retaliatory tariff on U.S. caustic soda exports to Brazil were implemented.
President and CEO Ken Lane stated that it is difficult to put a precise number on the impact. He explained that the indirect disruption to global trade flows would likely be more significant in the short term than any direct impact, taking one to two months to 'rewire.' This disruption would create pricing noise on the U.S. Gulf Coast. He emphasized that underlying global demand for caustic soda remains stable.
John Ezekiel Roberts from Mizuho Securities USA LLC asked about the reason for the adjusted purchase price for the AMMO Inc. acquisition, specifically if it was related to an earnout.
President and CEO Kenneth Lane stated the price adjustment was not related to an earnout. He credited the team with doing a 'very good job' finding areas of value for Olin as they approached closing. CFO Todd Slater added that the adjustment also reflected lower working capital at closing, which he noted was 'working capital we didn't want anyway.'
John Roberts asked if Olin's new PVC strategy would compel it to run EDC plants even if merchant margins were unacceptable, a departure from past practices of idling capacity.
CEO Kenneth Lane affirmed that EDC operations will continue to be optimized for value. He stated that as the industry's cost leader, he does not foresee being in a position where idling capacity would be necessary, but Olin will always operate its assets at the rate that creates the highest value for the company.
John Roberts from Mizuho inquired if Vista Outdoor's corporate activities were impacting competitive dynamics for Winchester. He also asked why rising glycerin costs in China were not translating to higher epoxy export prices.
President and CEO Kenneth Lane said he has not observed any change in competitor behavior from Vista Outdoor. On the epoxy question, Lane asserted that China's willingness to export at low prices despite rising input costs supports Olin's case for antidumping tariffs, suggesting Chinese producers are operating at a loss to run their newly added capacity and push volume into the market.
John Roberts asked about the impact of downstream solar cell and panel inventory, brought into the U.S. ahead of new duties, on Corning's solar ramp-up.
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Wendell Weeks confirmed the presence of such inventories but stated that Corning's ramp is largely unaffected because its customers prioritize U.S.-origin products, making Corning a preferred supplier. He noted that as these inventories deplete, demand and module pricing are improving.
John Roberts inquired about the expected timeline for profitability recovery in the solar and semiconductor business, given the startup costs anticipated in the third quarter.
CFO Ed Schlesinger stated that ramp costs for the new wafer factory will continue through Q3 as production and sales begin to scale. He expects profitability to improve into Q4 and 2026 as the factory reaches full utilization and sales increase, though a specific endpoint for the cost pressures was not provided.
John Roberts asked for the expected timeline for an earnings recovery in the solar and semiconductor business, given the ongoing startup costs impacting profitability.
EVP & CFO Ed Schlesinger explained that while ramp costs will continue into Q3, they are expected to improve as the new wafer facility begins commercial sales in Q4 and utilization increases. He anticipates a continued improvement trajectory through the remainder of the year and into 2026.
John Ezekiel Roberts of Mizuho Securities USA LLC sought to clarify the scope of the stated tariff impact, asking if the $0.01-$0.02 per share figure was only the direct impact and excluded indirect effects on customers. He also asked how a customer shifting production from China to India would affect Corning.
An executive, likely CEO Wendell Weeks, confirmed the figure represents the direct impact. He explained that indirect effects on customers and the macroeconomy are factored into the company's overall $2 billion risk adjustment for its 'Springboard' plan. Regarding a potential customer move to India, Weeks stated that Corning preemptively prepares for such shifts and has already established the necessary supply channels to support customers in India, ensuring revenue is captured regardless of the location.
John Ezekiel Roberts of Mizuho asked about the risk of the BEAD program being reworked or impacted by satellite technology and questioned the reasons behind the surge in Hemlock's minority interest income.
Chairman and CEO Wendell Weeks noted the Springboard plan already accounts for BEAD program uncertainty, with no significant revenue expected before 2026. EVP and CFO Ed Schlesinger attributed the Hemlock income surge to strong Q4 performance from back-end loaded semiconductor polysilicon contracts and confirmed plans to update segment reporting in 2025.
John Roberts asked about the outlook for Hemlock's semiconductor versus solar business, particularly after the company received a CHIPS Act award for semiconductor expansion.
CFO Ed Schlesinger confirmed the CHIPS grant is for expanding semiconductor polysilicon capacity. He positioned this as a positive long-term opportunity but clarified that it is not expected to have a material impact within the Springboard plan's timeframe through 2026, viewing it as a potential upside beyond that period.
John Roberts asked for a deeper dive into the underlying drivers in the refinish business, specifically auto accident rates, insurance inflation, and overall repair costs.
Chris Villavarayan, CEO and President, noted that accident rates are flat to down 1%. North American claims are down high single digits, with Europe in the mid-single-digit range, primarily due to rising insurance premiums and reduced consumer confidence. He highlighted that insurance premiums are stabilizing in 2025, with 27 states seeing declines. Repair costs are also flattening or declining, contributing to a stable environment. Leading indicators like CarMax/Carvana performance suggest a positive shift.
John Roberts of Mizuho Securities inquired about the impact of U.S. auto sales volatility on new car production and whether Axalta is seeing any customer positioning in Canada or Mexico related to USMCA tariff changes.
President and CEO Chris Villavarayan noted that Q2 North American production was weaker due to customer shutdowns, but strength in China and Latin America drove performance. He expects a slight increase in global light vehicle builds for the back half of the year, driven by those regions. Villavarayan highlighted significant outperformance in Commercial Vehicles, where Axalta expects to grow 1-2% for the full year despite the market being down 25-30%, thanks to success in the commercial transportation solutions (CTS) space.
John Ezekiel Roberts from Mizuho Securities USA LLC asked if Axalta plans to provide new multi-year targets after achieving its 2026 A Plan goals ahead of schedule, and also inquired about the foreign exchange outlook for 2025.
CEO Chris Villavarayan confirmed they plan to release a new long-term plan, possibly by the end of 2025 or early 2026, given they are on track to accelerate the current A Plan. CFO Carl Anderson provided the FX outlook, forecasting an $80 million to $100 million headwind for the full year and a $25 million to $30 million headwind in the first quarter, with a Q1 EBITDA impact of around $5 million.
John Roberts asked for Axalta's perspective on the recent production curtailment announcements from its customer, Volkswagen.
CEO Chrishan Villavarayan acknowledged the industry trend of footprint optimization but stated that from Axalta's perspective, they will continue to supply Volkswagen based on their demanded volumes. He then pivoted to the broader trend of regionalization and winning new business, including with Chinese OEMs expanding into Latin America and Mexico, which underpins the company's growth outlook for 2025.
John Roberts inquired about the potential public release of a new three-year plan (MAP 3.0) and whether its earnings impact would be similar to MAP 2.0, and later asked about the progress of the consumer initiative to enter dollar stores and supermarkets.
Frank Sullivan, Chairman and CEO, confirmed that a public MAP 3.0 plan is expected in spring or summer of next year, following leadership changes and greater clarity on the macro environment. He and Matt Schlarb, VP of Investor Relations & Sustainability, stated that the dollar store and supermarket initiative is progressing well, with modified packaging for dollar stores (DAP) and new opportunities for The Pink Stuff in grocery and drugstore chains, leading to a more comprehensive approach to the cleaning category.
John Roberts from Mizuho asked if all businesses from the former Specialty Products Group (SPG) have a logical home in the new three-segment structure and inquired about any broader signs of customer stress following recent bankruptcies.
Chairman & CEO Frank Sullivan affirmed that the former SPG businesses have strong strategic fits in their new segments. For example, the Color Group is a natural fit with the Consumer Group, as Rust-Oleum is its largest customer. He also stated that beyond some changing dynamics in the Legend Brands business, the company does not see widespread signs of stress or expect further bankruptcies among its customer base.
John Roberts inquired about a potential bifurcation in the Consumer segment's customer base, with larger home centers outperforming smaller ones, and whether bad debt reserves anticipate further bankruptcies.
CEO Frank Sullivan confirmed that over the last 12-15 months, there was a shift in consumer takeaway towards discount chains, but he expects a return to more traditional patterns. He also stated that while bad debt reserves are adequate, the recent customer bankruptcy was an isolated surprise and no other major challenges are on the horizon.
John Ezekiel Roberts asked whether reshoring and infrastructure activity is plateauing or if there is another phase of growth ahead. He also requested a qualitative ranking of data centers among the company's key growth drivers.
Frank Sullivan, Chair and CEO, responded that he does not believe activity is plateauing but expects it to play out over a longer period, with a significant portion of infrastructure funds still unspent. He emphasized that permitting reform would be a key catalyst for reacceleration. While not providing a specific ranking for data centers, he praised the agility of RPM's sales force in pivoting from distribution centers to other growth markets like data centers, which has been a key strength in a weak commercial construction environment.
John Roberts from Mizuho Securities sought clarification on a chart (Slide 4), asking how far tire import levels need to fall to rebalance the market and work through excess inventory. He also inquired about the potential for further industry consolidation through the acquisition of captive carbon black plants, similar to recent transactions in the market.
CEO Corning Painter explained that any downward movement in the tire import rate from current elevated levels represents an improvement for Orion's customers and that the speed of this decline will influence how quickly channel inventories are normalized. Regarding consolidation, Painter stated that opportunities to acquire captive carbon black plants are now very limited.
John Roberts of Mizuho Financial Group sought clarification on the tire import data presented, asking what level of reduction would be needed to rebalance the market. He also inquired about the potential for further industry consolidation through the acquisition of captive carbon black plants.
CEO Corning Painter explained that any downward movement in the tire import rate from current elevated levels would be a positive signal for their customers and for Orion. He added that the recent import surge created excess inventory that customers expect to sell through by year-end. Regarding consolidation, Painter stated that opportunities to acquire captive carbon black plants are very limited.
John Ezekiel Roberts from Mizuho sought confirmation if the underlying mid-$70 million EBITDA run-rate from Q1 is indicative of Q2 conditions, excluding inventory revaluation. He also asked for an update on Orion's operations in South America.
CFO Jeff Glajch confirmed that the mid-$70 million run-rate is a reasonable expectation for Q2, acknowledging it's early in a dynamic quarter. CEO Corning Painter addressed the South American operations, stating that the company's facility performance has improved significantly, leading to volume gains despite broader market shifts and import pressures.
John Roberts from Mizuho Securities asked for an assessment of carbon black operating rates in Russia, China, and India, and whether these rates are expected to change collectively in 2025.
CEO Corning Painter stated that a potential return of Russian supply to Europe would likely displace imports from India and China rather than local production, as customers value security of local supply. He noted that reliable operating rate data is difficult to obtain, but he suspects Russian rates are down. Painter also commented on China's opaque capacity reporting and recent expansions in India, suggesting a normalization scenario would primarily shift trade flows among importers.
John Ezekiel Roberts from Mizuho Securities requested elaboration on the favorable regional mix effects in the Specialty Black segment, questioning why Europe would be more profitable than other regions. He also asked how a potential normalization of the war in Ukraine might affect the European carbon black market and Russian supply dynamics.
CEO Corning Painter clarified that while the Specialty market is global, profitability per ton for similar products is often higher in Europe and North America compared to Asia, which drove the favorable regional mix. Regarding a potential end to the Ukraine war, Mr. Painter opined that tire companies would not revert to their previous high reliance on Russian carbon black. He believes any returning Russian supply would more likely displace other imports into Europe rather than impacting local European producers.
John Roberts from Mizuho Financial Group questioned the nature of the $150 million in insurance proceeds as a source of liquidity. He sought to clarify if these rights were sold for existing claims only or if they included rights for potential future claims.
SVP & CFO Shane Hostetter clarified that the $150 million insurance amount relates to past claims associated with the New Jersey settlement. He described it as an advance from Corteva and DuPont, to be realized over the next five years, representing a portion of a larger pool of potential insurance recoveries. He emphasized the focus is currently on the New Jersey settlement.
John Roberts from Mizuho Securities USA LLC questioned the timing of the dividend reduction, asking why the change was made now and why the dividend was not eliminated entirely. He also asked for the company's near-term pricing expectations for Opteon refrigerants, given a competitor's recent tariff-related surcharge.
SVP and CFO Shane Hostetter stated the dividend cut aligns with a disciplined capital allocation policy to improve balance sheet flexibility for strategic growth and liability settlement, noting the new payout level is still attractive within the chemicals sector. President and CEO Denise Dignam declined to comment on specific pricing but emphasized Chemours' strong performance and focus on supporting the customer transition to Opteon.
John Ezekiel Roberts asked about the potential impact of a former DuPont executive's new role at the EPA on PFAS activity, requested an update on the upcoming New Jersey trial, and inquired about the state of the immersion cooling market following 3M's exit.
CEO Denise Dignam expressed hope for a productive dialogue with the EPA on science-based regulations and confirmed the New Jersey trial is set for May, with settlement remaining a possibility. Regarding immersion cooling, she noted that while Chinese producers are filling the void left by 3M, their products have significant corrosion issues, creating an opportunity for improved solutions.
John Ezekiel Roberts asked if the company's 5% three-year revenue growth target assumes any growth from the Titanium Technologies (TT) segment. He also inquired about the origin of the goodwill in the APM segment that was recently written down.
CEO Denise Dignam and CFO Shane Hostetter confirmed the 5% CAGR target incorporates some market recovery and cyclicality in the TT segment. However, they emphasized the bulk of the growth is expected from commercial excellence initiatives, strong Opteon growth driven by the AIM Act, and contributions from the new PFA line. Hostetter explained that the APM goodwill was originally assigned to the segment based on a fair value allocation at the time of the company's spin-off from DuPont.
John Roberts from Mizuho Securities asked about China's new industrial policy to rationalize its chemical industry and whether LyondellBasell anticipates any of its joint ventures in the region will be part of a merger or restructuring.
CEO Peter Vanacker acknowledged China's policy targeting older, less competitive assets and expects it will lead to real actions over time. However, he stated that the company does not speculate on such outcomes and remains focused on what it can control, such as running its Bora JV at minimum technical rates. He did not comment on specific restructuring possibilities for their JVs.
John Roberts from Mizuho Financial Group questioned the focus on Advanced Materials for bolt-on acquisitions and asked if this implied a lack of long-term interest in the Huntsman Building Systems (HBS) area.
Chairman, President & CEO Peter Huntsman confirmed a strategic M&A focus on downstream areas like adhesives, aerospace, and lightweighting within the Advanced Materials segment. While not ruling out deals in polyurethanes, he specified any such acquisition would target downstream, value-added applications rather than the more volatile commodity side.
John Roberts asked if the demand weakness was uniform across end markets like composite wood, automotive, and insulation, or if there was differentiation. He also questioned the ability of small spray foam customers to survive the current correction without the kind of stimulus seen in 2020.
CEO Peter Huntsman responded that the current weakness is less about specific end markets and more about a 'general trend of uncertainty' that is causing customers across the board to reduce inventories and preserve capital. He stated he was not aware of any potential stimulus for any customer segment and had no specific insight into the financial health of competitors' spray foam customers.
John Roberts inquired if reciprocal tariffs would alter customer trade flows and asked if the new supply chain financing program was a temporary free cash flow benefit.
CEO Peter Huntsman commented that it's too early to determine the full impact of tariffs on trade flows. CFO Phil Lister described the supply chain financing as a standard, ongoing program targeting a $30 million benefit, not a temporary measure.
John Roberts asked whether the outcome of the U.S. presidential election would have any impact on Huntsman. He also inquired about the company's planned maintenance turnarounds for 2025.
Chairman, CEO and President Peter Huntsman opined that the election outcome would not materially change their business plan, as both candidates have similar views on housing and trade, though they differ on regulation and taxes. He confirmed a major 'cluster' turnaround is scheduled for the Rotterdam site at the end of Q1 2025.
John Roberts of Mizuho Financial Group sought clarification on the inventory repositioning that increased freight costs and asked whether the anticipated second-half 'other product' sales would primarily consist of ore.
CEO John Romano explained that higher freight costs resulted from repositioning inventory after the Botlek facility idling and moving pig iron ahead of potential tariffs. CFO John Srivisal added that inter-plant feedstock movements also contributed. Romano clarified the 'other product' sales are not feedstock but are related to tailings and the company's rare earth strategy.
John Ezekiel Roberts asked if the company's project to extract rare earths from tailings is being revisited and whether they have observed any capacity idling in China.
CEO John Romano confirmed that the rare earths project in Australia is an ongoing 'work in progress' with pre-feasibility studies underway. He also stated that they have seen some Chinese plants pull back on production and noted that the prolonged market downturn has led to more global capacity closures by competitors than in typical cycles, which should benefit margins upon recovery.
John Roberts asked for the outlook on China's TiO2 capacity and production growth in 2025 and whether Tronox still holds inventory of ilmenite and heavy minerals for opportunistic sales.
CEO John Romano stated that despite new capacity announcements in China, he does not expect significant production growth due to on-the-ground pullbacks and the impact of antidumping duties. He also clarified that previous opportunistic sales were of tailings, which are not planned to be repeated, as the company requires its current mineral inventory for its own vertically integrated operations.
John Roberts asked if customers are preemptively buying Chinese TiO2 ahead of tariffs, thereby muting benefits for Tronox, and requested a capital spending forecast for 2025.
CEO John Romano acknowledged that customers are likely buying some Chinese material ahead of final duties but believes the impact is limited, as they still require higher-quality product from Western suppliers which cannot be fully substituted. For 2025 CapEx, he guided to a range of $350-$370 million, noting it includes about $20 million shifted from 2024, with spending expected to decline towards $300 million in 2026.
John Roberts from Mizuho Financial Group asked if the current reduced level of capital spending would cause lithium volume growth to flatten in the coming quarters and what the outlook for volume growth is.
CEO Kent Masters clarified that past investments and ongoing programs will support volume growth for a period of "years, not quarters," and a slowdown is not imminent.
John Ezekiel Roberts of Mizuho Securities inquired about the ability of Western EV makers to replicate Chinese battery technology breakthroughs and asked about Albemarle's long-term lithium contracting strategy.
CEO Jerry Masters responded that the battery technology curve is still in its early stages, allowing for innovation from all global players, not just those in China. On contracting, he stated the core strategy remains a mix of spot and long-term contracts to provide security of supply for customers and mitigate risk for Albemarle, a strategy not expected to change significantly.
John Roberts from Mizuho asked for the source of Albemarle's 2025 volume growth given flat guidance at Greenbushes and questioned the appropriateness of targeting sustaining CapEx as a percentage of sales due to price volatility.
CCO Eric Norris explained that the 2025 volume growth is primarily driven by the continued ramp-up of the Salar yield improvement project in Chile. CEO Jerry Masters acknowledged that the 4-6% of sales target for sustaining CapEx is an aspirational benchmark based on mid-cycle pricing, not the current bottom-of-the-market environment.
John Ezekiel Roberts inquired about the assumed Talison joint venture equity income for Q4, the JV's CapEx budget for 2024 and 2025, and what Albemarle conceded to secure its revised financial covenants.
CFO Neal Sheorey stated that Q4 equity income from the Talison JV should be similar to Q3, given flat spot pricing. He mentioned it was premature to discuss the 2025 Talison CapEx budget but confirmed spending on the CGP 3 project would continue. Regarding the covenant waiver, Sheorey disclosed that the cost was minimal, amounting to 'far less than $1 million'.
John Roberts of Mizuho Financial Group inquired about the specifics of the goodwill impairment, asking which legacy acquisitions it related to and what the triggering event was. He also asked about the potential impact of new Section 232 tariffs on Ashland's pharma customers.
CFO William Whitaker explained that the non-cash goodwill impairment was triggered by the decline in the company's market capitalization relative to its book value. While tested at the reporting unit level, he noted the goodwill largely relates to the legacy Hercules and ISP acquisitions. Regarding tariffs, CEO Guillermo Novo stated there is not yet enough clarity to assess the impact, but the more significant trend is the shift of pharma manufacturing to the U.S., which presents an opportunity for Ashland. SVP & GM Alessandra Faccin Assis added that pharma customers are currently in a 'wait and see' mode.
John Roberts of Mizuho asked about the potential effects of new pharma tariffs and whether they could prompt customer actions that would impact Ashland.
General Manager Alessandra Faccin and CEO Guillermo Novo acknowledged that while customers are conducting scenario planning, the manufacturing advantages in regions like India and Brazil remain significant. They noted a broader customer concern about supply chain stability, which creates an opportunity for Ashland to partner with them as a reliable, global supplier, thereby mitigating some of the risks associated with shifting trade policies.
John Roberts questioned whether Ashland has observed customers adjusting trade patterns, a risk cited for pulling forward maintenance, and asked if the currency headwind would become more material after a small impact in Q1.
CEO Guillermo Novo responded that they have not seen significant changes in customer trade patterns but noted customers are being cautious, reinforcing supply chain stability. CFO Kevin Willis clarified that if current foreign exchange rates (particularly for the Euro, Yuan, and Real) persist, the negative EBITDA impact for the full fiscal year could be in the range of $7 million to $8 million.
John Roberts of Mizuho Securities requested commentary on bridging Q1 fiscal 2025 EBITDA from Q4 2024 results and asked about the company's share buyback plans for fiscal 2025.
CEO Guillermo Novo indicated that the first quarter was starting slightly softer, with some European customers implementing inventory control actions that could shift volumes into January. Regarding buybacks, Novo reiterated a bullish long-term view and a willingness to act on attractive valuations. CFO Kevin Willis added that the company's strong balance sheet provides flexibility, noting the $380 million spent on repurchases in fiscal 2024. He expects free cash flow conversion to exceed 50% of EBITDA in fiscal 2025, which will support ongoing capital allocation activities.
John Roberts of Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. asked if the overcapacity situations in polyethylene, isocyanates, and polyurethanes are expected to resolve in sync, or if one of these chemical chains is likely to see improvement before the others.
CEO Jim Fitterling indicated the recovery timelines would vary by product. He sees isocyanates in decent shape, but expects a longer recovery for polyols and siloxanes. In contrast, he believes polyethylene and ethylene will recover more quickly due to the large market size and strong underlying demand growth.
John Roberts from Mizuho Securities USA LLC asked about the financial impact of the new joint venture with Macquarie, specifically the associated EBITDA and the potential size of the minority interest line item.
CFO Jeff Tate clarified that there will be no EBITDA impact as the new entity will be consolidated within Dow's results. He explained that the financial impact will be visible on the noncontrolling interest line on the income statement and through dividend distributions on the cash flow statement. More specific guidance will be provided after the transaction closes mid-year.
John Roberts asked about the interconnectedness of the strategic decisions for European polyurethanes and the company's integrated chlorine/caustic soda (CAB) assets.
James Fitterling, Chair and CEO, stated unequivocally that the decisions are 'not' separable. He emphasized that the chlorine-PO integration is critical, and any actions will be taken in close coordination with Dow's chlorine assets and partners in Europe.
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