John Tumazos

John Tumazos asked about Franco-Nevada's intentions regarding its Discovery Silver shareholding in light of Newmont's recent sale, and questioned if a larger dividend payout could be expected due to the high gold price.

Answer

President and CEO Paul Brink stated that while Franco-Nevada is a happy shareholder in Discovery Silver, its core strategy is royalties and streams, not actively trading blocks of shares. He explained equity stakes are strategic tools to facilitate royalty/stream deals. CFO Sandip Rana reiterated the company's commitment to a sustainable and progressive dividend but emphasized that the primary use of capital remains acquiring long-life assets, so an unusually large dividend increase should not be expected.

John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research asked how Franco-Nevada approaches valuation for new transactions, considering factors like spot gold prices, capitalization rates, lower gold stock valuations, and rising interest rates.

Answer

President & CEO Paul Brink detailed that their valuation process focuses more on accurately assessing a mine's production potential than on spot commodity prices. He emphasized their long-term view on prices and noted their low-debt position provides a competitive advantage, allowing them to deploy capital at a consistent rate regardless of interest rate fluctuations.

John Tumazos requested a comprehensive review of the drill rigs operating across Agnico Eagle's portfolio, specifically asking for details on the number of rigs at Canadian Malartic and Detour, and the total drilling meters completed.

Answer

Ammar Al-Joundi (CEO) deferred to Guy Gosselin (EVP of Exploration), who confirmed 120 rigs spread across operating mines and advanced projects. Mr. Gosselin specified 29 rigs at Canadian Malartic, 9 at Detour, 12 at Macassa, and 6 at Hope Bay, offering to provide a detailed list offline. He noted that increased productivity, including unattended drilling, allowed for more meters (expecting 1.25-1.3 million meters by year-end) without significant budget increases, keeping the global exploration budget around $525 million.

John Tumazos requested a comprehensive review of the drill rigs operating across Agnico Eagle's portfolio, specifically inquiring about the 29 rigs at Canadian Malartic and the increased drilling meters at Detour from 55,000 to 220,000 for the year.

Answer

Ammar Al-Joundi (CEO) deferred to Guy Gosselin (EVP of Exploration), who confirmed approximately 120 rigs operating across various sites, including 29 at Canadian Malartic, 9 at Detour, 12 at Macassa, and 6 at Hope Bay. Mr. Gosselin explained that increased productivity, such as unattended drilling, allows for more meters (projected 1.25-1.3 million by year-end) without significantly increasing the $525 million exploration budget, due to lower unit costs.

John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research asked if development progress at Malartic could accelerate the timeline for the East Gouldie shaft to begin production before 2027. He also questioned the strategy for the large investment portfolio, suggesting it was a good time to monetize the holdings.

Answer

EVP & COO Dominique Girard clarified the timeline, stating that the commissioning of the mid-shaft loading station is scheduled for mid-2027, which is when ore will first be hoisted. President and CEO Ammar Al-Joundi reiterated that the investment portfolio's primary purpose is strategic due diligence, not trading. However, he acknowledged the significant increase in its value and stated the company is 'not ignorant of market conditions' regarding potential divestments.

John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research focused on a high-grade drill intercept at Hope Bay, asking if it could connect two known zones and what the potential cost per ton and gross margin would be for such valuable rock.

Answer

Executive Guy Gosselin estimated Hope Bay's cost structure would be similar to the Meliadine mine, around $230-$250 per ton. He clarified that the high-grade intercept suggests the presence of additional ore shoots between the main zones, which could add up to 1 million ounces, rather than a single connected zone.

John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research asked a series of questions regarding the Marban acquisition and its reserve potential, the company's human resources strategy for managing its ambitious growth, and for a clarification on exploration spending versus reserve additions to counter perceptions of high discovery costs.

Answer

Guy Gosselin, SVP of Exploration, stated that a significant portion of Marban's resources could be converted to reserves soon. On human resources, CEO Ammar Al-Joundi and SVP Dominique Girard discussed their strategy of attracting top talent and developing it internally through student programs. Regarding exploration costs, Mr. Gosselin broke down the spending to show a discovery and conversion cost of approximately $25/oz for each stage, while Mr. Al-Joundi clarified that a large part of the budget is for infrastructure that will be used in future operations.

John Tumazos asked for an elaboration on the company's mine safety awards and how it manages significant seismic risks at deep mines like LaRonde, inquiring specifically about the ground support systems that withstood a recent seismic event.

Answer

Dominique Girard (executive) explained that the ground support at LaRonde performed as designed during a recent 4.1 Richter event, which was anticipated by their models. Executive Vice President Carol-Ann Plummer-Theriault detailed the company's comprehensive safety philosophy, which emphasizes proactive risk management, leadership visibility, and learning from all incidents. An executive also noted that ground support designs have evolved to handle the stresses of deep mining.

John Tumazos sought details on the Massena 10-year energy agreement, specifically regarding rising electricity demand from data centers and new capacity. He also asked if infrastructure from the old Massena East plant still exists and if it's a candidate for restarting aluminum production or other uses.

Answer

William Oplinger, CEO, explained the Massena agreement provides 10 years of competitive, low-cost green energy, with two 5-year extensions, enabling a $60 million bake furnace investment crucial for U.S. aluminum. He acknowledged competition for electricity from data centers but emphasized New York's commitment to jobs. Regarding Massena East, he stated no pot line remains for aluminum production, but existing electrical infrastructure presents opportunities for data centers and AI, which Alcoa is actively marketing.

John Tumazos questioned the reliability of the power supply for the San Ciprian restart, given summer electricity demand in Spain, and asked about the pace of the restart process.

Answer

President, CEO & Director William Oplinger responded that while there are no guarantees, Spanish authorities have approved 65 actions to improve grid resiliency. He confirmed the restart will be a gradual ramp-up, with a few pots energized weekly to reach full production by mid-2026.

John Tumazos asked for confirmation of his Q4 EBITDA model, inquired about the long-term strategy for the Ma'aden equity stake, and sought clarification on how to model future shipments considering the San Ciprian restart and Ma'aden sale.

Answer

CEO William Oplinger directed him to use the company's provided sensitivities for modeling and explained the Ma'aden stake was acquired to simplify Alcoa's structure and crystallize value, with a decision on selling shares to be made after the lockup period. CFO Molly Beerman advised waiting for guidance on San Ciprian and noted the Ma'aden offtake cessation would impact shipments, not production.

John Tumazos asked if smelters are facing shutdowns due to alumina shortages and questioned the potential annual EBITDA improvement if the San Ciprián complex were removed from Alcoa's books.

Answer

President and CEO William Oplinger confirmed that tight global alumina inventories are stressing smelters, particularly in India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. He and CFO Molly Beerman also confirmed that the San Ciprián assets incurred approximately $150 million in EBITDA losses during 2023.

John Tumazos asked about the impact of the August 11 U.S. Steel Coke accident on Worthington Steel's supply chain and whether the incident would effectively remove 3-4 million tons of crude capacity from the market, or if U.S. Steel would seek alternative supply methods.

Answer

Geoff Gilmore, President and CEO, confirmed no anticipated impact on Worthington Steel's supply chains due to strong relationships with multiple mill sources. He stated he could not speculate on U.S. Steel's specific strategy, ruling out slab purchases due to tariffs but remaining unsure about other options like third-party coke or prime scrap.

John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research inquired about the competitive landscape for the Taylor Welded Blanks (TWB) business and questioned the rationale for offering early retirements in a growing product segment.

Answer

CEO Geoff Gilmore explained that the TWB market is highly technical with few players, primarily ArcelorMittal, and is growing due to automotive lightweighting trends. He clarified that the early retirements were a strategic decision related to integrating recent acquisitions, aligning with the company's 'people-first' philosophy to thoughtfully identify talent rather than making impulsive cuts. Gilmore noted that as the business scales with new technologies like the recently licensed ablation process, the company will hire as needed.

John Tumazos asked for the percentage of the North American auto market that is U.S.-made and questioned the utility industry's capacity to supply the 6% annual growth projected for electrical steel demand.

Answer

CEO Geoff Gilmore stated he did not have the exact figure for U.S.-made vehicle production but noted the company views the market from a holistic North American perspective. CFO Tim Adams clarified that the 6% growth figure refers specifically to the transformer market, not overall electricity demand. He explained this growth is driven by a combination of new power needs, the replacement of an aging grid infrastructure, and grid hardening initiatives.

John Tumazos from John Tumazos Very Independent Research asked for an explanation for the improved performance in the laser-welded blank (TWB) business, which seemed to buck the company's overall trend. He also questioned the potential competitive impact of Cleveland-Cliffs' plan to build an integrated transformer facility.

Answer

CFO Tim Adams explained that TWB's results improved because the business successfully raised prices to recover higher costs, leveraging the differentiated, high-value nature of its products. CEO Geoff Gilmore addressed the competitive question by stating they do not see Cliffs' entry as a disruption, given the significant 18-24 month market backlog and strong long-term growth prospects. He emphasized Worthington's strategy is to partner with expert transformer manufacturers, not compete with them.

John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research asked about engineering hurdles for the Baghdad expansion and whether the Lone Star expansion would focus on oxide stacking or a sulfide mill.

Answer

President & CEO Kathleen Quirk clarified that the caution around the Baghdad expansion was related to execution risk in an inflationary environment, not engineering challenges. She explained they have been de-risking the project by advancing autonomous haulage and tailings infrastructure. For Lone Star, she outlined a long-term vision for a large-scale leach and concentrate producer, with studies underway to define the optimal flow sheet, likely including a concentrator for the high-grade Dos Pobres deposit.

John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research asked about the engineering hurdles for the Baghdad expansion and the scope of the Lone Star expansion, specifically regarding oxide stacking versus a sulfide mill.

Answer

President & CEO Kathleen Quirk clarified that caution on the Baghdad expansion stemmed from the inflationary environment and labor market, not engineering issues, and that they have been de-risking the project. For Lone Star, she explained the current study is defining the next phase, which includes a concentrator for the Dos Pobres deposit and determining the optimal mix of leach versus concentrating for the larger sulfide resource.

John Tumazos, a private investor, asked for an educational overview of the different aluminum alloy series and the specific hurdles involved in qualifying can sheet and automotive sheet products with customers.

Answer

CEO Mark Millett provided a high-level summary of the alloy series (3000 for can/industrial, 6000 for automotive) and explained that the qualification process is similar to steel. It involves detailed process audits for automotive customers and in-use performance testing for can sheet, where cleanliness is a critical factor.

John Tumazos, a private investor, asked how current aluminum tariff economics affect the original business plan for the new aluminum mill and inquired about the modern competitive landscape in aluminum rolling.

Answer

CEO Mark Millett stated that the project's economics largely remain intact and are essentially a 'wash' despite tariff complexities, which he views as temporary. Regarding competition, Millett asserted that Steel Dynamics will have no close competitors, citing the new mill's state-of-the-art technology, scale, efficiency, and the company's performance-driven culture as key differentiators, reminiscent of their disruptive entry into the steel industry 30 years ago.

John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research asked for a contrast between the rapid start-up of the aluminum mill and the slower, multi-year ramp at Sinton, inquiring about differences in equipment suppliers and the root causes of Sinton's challenges.

Answer

CEO Mark Millett explained the key difference is technology risk. Sinton uses pioneering continuous-process technology, where one issue halts the entire line. The aluminum mill uses proven, state-of-the-art batch technology with built-in redundancy, allowing for a more rapid and less risky start-up. COO Barry Schneider added that Sinton's product quality is excellent and recent operational gains are significant.

John Tumazos of John Tumazos Independent Research asked about the company's long-term investment strategy, inquiring which sectors might be candidates for the next major project in the coming years.

Answer

CEO Mark Millett indicated that another large greenfield steel project is unlikely. Instead, he pointed to smaller, strategic value-add opportunities in steel. He stated that after the current aluminum mill is operational, the strong growth in the aluminum market presents future opportunities, potentially including downstream value-add products that leverage the company's existing expertise.

John Tumazos of Very Independent Research questioned the aluminum market dynamics, asking when falling demand might cause exchange inventories to rise, how inventories could be replenished given sanctions on Russian metal, and whether the alumina market will balance through refinery closures or increased supply.

Answer

CEO Jesse Gary responded that Century has not observed falling demand, particularly in the U.S., and continues to forecast a market deficit for 2025, which would lead to further inventory declines, not replenishment. Regarding the alumina market, he stated that historically, the market has been disciplined in curtailing capacity in response to low prices and expects that trend of refinery closures would continue if necessary to maintain balance.

John Tumazos asked if the apparent 3.5% aluminum demand growth rate indicates inventory building and questioned how to interpret China's record winter output given its stated 45 million ton production cap.

Answer

President and CEO Jesse Gary responded that the company has seen no evidence of shadow inventory stockpiling and believes that global aluminum demand will continue to outpace supply growth. He affirmed the view that China is respecting its 45 million tonne production cap, citing the recent elimination of the VAT rebate on exports as a signal of their intent to keep more product for domestic use.

John Tumazos asked for details on the new LME-linked alumina contract, including its expiration date and supplier, and inquired how alumina costs at the Jamalco facility compare to global averages published by competitors.

Answer

Jesse Gary, President and CEO, responded that the company's LME-linked contracts are long-term and all extend through at least 2026. Regarding Jamalco, Gary stated that the company is implementing CapEx programs with the goal of making the asset's cost structure globally competitive and positioning it as a second-quartile producer, which would be in line with the cost ranges of its peers.

John Tumazos followed up on the Libby project, asking how quickly Hecla can advance the project under the FAST-41 designation, what steps are needed to reach a definitive feasibility study, and what the conceptual target for daily production tonnage might be.

Answer

Robert Krcmarov, President & CEO, outlined the immediate next steps, including awaiting a decision on the plan of operations from the U.S. Forest Service, which could be approved in Q3 2025 and would authorize exploration activities. Matt Blattman, VP, Technical Services, added that previous conceptual work targeted a production rate of 12,500 tons per day, though he and Krcmarov stressed that this is highly preliminary and years of work remain before any mining pathway is established.

John Tumazos inquired about the status of the Montanore and Rock Creek projects in Montana, the possibility of regional infrastructure development benefiting Casa Berardi, and why Keno Hill requires 600 tonnes per day for profitability given higher silver prices and pre-acquisition knowledge of its costs.

Answer

CEO Robert Krcmarov provided an update on the Montana projects' permitting process, which could see approval by Q3 2025, and acknowledged the Casa Berardi infrastructure idea was interesting but speculative. CFO Russell Lawlar explained that the Keno Hill ramp-up has been more challenging and costly than anticipated, with unexpected infrastructure needs contributing to the higher required throughput.

John Tumazos from John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC asked how Southern Copper has managed to maintain uniquely low cash costs while other major miners face significant cost escalation.

Answer

Raul Jacob (executive) attributed the company's cost control to its corporate DNA of being 'extremely cautious' about costs, continuous investment in maintaining facilities, strong vendor relationships, and a focus on production growth. He highlighted the new Buenavista zinc concentrator as a major contributor to value with its 'extremely low' cash cost.

John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC asked how Southern Copper has successfully maintained industry-leading low cash costs while competitors face significant inflation.

Answer

Executive Raul Jacob attributed their cost control to a company culture of prudence, continuous investment in asset maintenance, strong vendor relationships, and production discipline. He specifically highlighted the new, low-cost Buenavista zinc concentrator as a significant contributor to value and cost efficiency.

John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research LLC asked if the advancement of large projects like Tia Maria necessitates a more conservative dividend payout ratio (under 50%) to avoid accumulating debt.

Answer

Executive Raul Jacob agreed with the prudent sentiment, affirming the company's conservative approach to cash management and its policy of not taking on debt to pay dividends. He noted that while debt might be considered if future EBITDA is expected to rise from new projects, the current high-interest-rate environment reinforces a prudent stance, which influenced the decision for this quarter's stock dividend.

John Tumazos posed broad questions about the apparent lethargy in the overall U.S. steel market, noting declining industry shipments despite positive GDP reports. He asked for an explanation for this disconnect and whether factors like customer outsourcing or import substitution were contributing to the trend.

Answer

Executive Karla Lewis acknowledged the challenging macroeconomic backdrop but emphasized that Reliance's strategy is to focus on its own business by serving customers and gaining market share, which makes the company's strong performance even more notable. On outsourcing, she stated that any increase in U.S. manufacturing is a positive for Reliance and noted that the company's toll processing business for the automotive sector remains strong, indicating continued reliance on their services by mill partners.

Questioned the specifics of the 2025 guidance, including any declining assets and the degree of conservatism applied to operator forecasts. Also asked about other properties with partial royalty coverage and posed strategic questions about a potential company sale and prioritizing share buybacks over debt repayment.

Answer

Executives clarified that guidance conservatism stems from using the lower end of operator ranges for ramping-up assets (Cote, Vares, Borborema) and noted Canadian Malartic also has partial coverage. The CEO dismissed a near-term sale, believing more value will be created by executing on the company's significant built-in growth. While debt repayment is the current priority, share buybacks and dividends are future capital allocation options.

John Tumazos questioned if any properties were expected to decline in the 2025 guidance, how conservatively the company discounts operator guidance, which other key assets have partial royalty coverage, and whether a share buyback would be a better use of capital than debt repayment.

Answer

Jackie Przybylowski, VP of Capital Markets, clarified that guidance reflects conservatism on the ramp-up of assets like Cote, Vares, and Borborema, rather than declines at specific properties. She also identified Canadian Malartic as another major asset with partial royalty coverage. CEO David Garofalo addressed capital allocation by stating that while deleveraging is the current priority, the company's growing free cash flow will create the luxury to consider shareholder returns like buybacks or dividends in the future.

John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research expressed concern over Rio Tinto's participation in McEwen Copper, citing a past incident with another junior company, and asked what protections are in place to prevent McEwen from being 'squeezed out'.

Answer

Executive Stefan Spears clarified that Rio Tinto's investment is held through its subsidiary Nuton, which owns just over 17% of McEwen Copper. He assured that a shareholder's rights agreement is in place and that it is 'not possible for Rio to squeeze us out in any way, shape or form at this stage.' He added that while they are open to further investment in the same form, an asset-level transaction would be considered very carefully.

John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research inquired about the social conditions near the mine and requested more details on the company's peso hedging strategy.

Answer

President and CEO David Wolfin described the local area as a safe farming community far from the U.S. border, emphasizing the company's positive community employment and support. CFO Nathan Harte explained the hedging strategy limits downside currency risk while allowing for significant upside participation, noting they are hedged "nowhere near 50%" of operating expenses.

John Tumazos sought clarification on the assumptions behind the company's $200 million debt repayment target for 2025, specifically the gold price used. He also asked about the company's capital allocation strategy and at what point management might pivot from deleveraging to capital projects or shareholder returns like dividends and buybacks.

Answer

CFO Peter Hardie confirmed the debt repayment target was calculated using a gold price just under $2,500 per ounce. Executive Gregory Smith responded that while deleveraging is the current priority, the Board has begun discussing future capital allocation, including the potential for share buybacks and implementing a normal course dividend, which could happen 'sooner than later' if strong gold prices persist.

Suggested three strategic changes to attract more risk-averse North American investors: acquiring smaller Canadian projects, advancing Donlin Creek, and formally reinvesting a majority of cash flow in North America.

Answer

Management acknowledged the suggestions, stating that similar options are always under consideration. However, the core strategy remains focused on creating value through high-quality, globally diversified assets that are viable in any market, which they believe is the best way to attract long-term investors. They also noted that political risk is not exclusive to emerging markets anymore.

John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research inquired about the mix of housing versus commercial exposure in the Building Products segment. He also challenged the strategy of acquiring consumer-related businesses like Hexagon Ragasco given global consumer pressures and asked why the Q1 share repurchase was relatively small.

Answer

CFO and COO Joe Hayek clarified that wholly-owned Building Products are roughly 50-50 residential/commercial with a repair/remodel bias, while JVs have almost no residential exposure. He defended the acquisition strategy by noting their products can benefit from consumer 'trade-down' activities. CEO Andy Rose addressed the share buyback, explaining that after the separation, the company's valuation is more appropriate, and the current focus is on growth through M&A, with buybacks being used opportunistically and to offset dilution.

Asked about the company's philosophy on investing further in troubled assets versus moving on, and questioned the effectiveness of committee-based decision-making versus individual originator responsibility for deals.

Answer

The company has upgraded its technical team and now focuses on new opportunities rather than investing more in legacy troubled assets. An investment committee adds a layer of governance and risk management oversight. Executive compensation is tied to per-share growth metrics (cash flow, NAV), not individual deal origination, aligning the team's interests with long-term shareholder value creation.

John Tumazos asked about Osisko's philosophy on investing further in troubled assets, questioning if the company would contribute 'good money after bad.' He also contrasted the use of committees for deal approval with a model of individual originator responsibility, asking about the pros and cons of each approach for ensuring accountability.

Answer

Jason Attew, President and CEO, responded that the company has upgraded its technical team and established a Board-level investment committee for additional governance and oversight on capital deployment. He emphasized that the focus is on new, accretive opportunities rather than funding legacy assets requiring more capital. Attew also clarified that executive compensation is not tied to deal origination but to long-term, per-share metrics like cash flow and NAV growth, aligning the team's incentives with shareholder interests.

John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research, LLC, asked about management's philosophy on investing further in troubled assets, referencing past challenges and questioning the 'first dollar is the last' approach. He also probed the company's governance structure, asking about the effectiveness of committees versus individual originator responsibility for deal-making and accountability.

Answer

Jason Attew, President and CEO, stated that after a full portfolio review and an upgrade to the technical team, the focus is on new, accretive opportunities rather than deploying significant new capital into most legacy assets. He emphasized that a new Board-level investment committee adds a layer of governance. Attew clarified that compensation is not tied to deal origination but to long-term, per-share metrics like cash flow and NAV growth, ensuring team alignment with shareholder interests.